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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 06:22:44

Given all the other mass extinction events associated with warming, the land is no refuge during warming events.--- Sorry to intervene your technical discussion but this relates to me what I read about hydrogen sulfide and it's role in poisoning land life after the oceans experience this Ocean anoxi and die off. I post this article that points to this dynamic as central to the Mass Extinction Event
Just curious to hear more expert elaboration from Dissident who in my layman opinion sounds the most knowledgeable and credible in his assessment of this topic https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 063957.htm
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 06:27:06

Also, would not die off of plankton reduce dramatically oxygen levels for land creatures?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 10:12:20

dohboi wrote:Also, how much do we know about the sea bed in ESAS. Is it utterly lifeless? If not, might there be some burrowing creatures there which may become more active as things warm? And even if it is now (which I doubt), might not new creatures be migrating into these newly warmed waters (I'm quite sure they are), some of which may be active burrowers? Couldn't these provide pathways for warm water to get directly down to deeper layers of sediment without having to depend on slow radiative transfer?...Just some thoughts that waft about in my feverish brain...


Back in the 1960's the USSR imported Alaskan King Crab from off their Pacific coast on the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Barents Sea which has a similar climate. These giant crabs now number in the tens of millions and have spread at least through the adjoining Norwegian Sea and the Kara Sea because the bottom water on the shelf is warm enough to support their entire life cycle including reproduction. The crucial question is have they made it as far back east as the Laptev Sea? Once they are able to spread that far the ESAS will be an open smorgasbord to them. On the other hand by the time the sea warms that much in the Arctic shelf they made have already spread under their own impetus up the Pacific coast and through the Bering Strait into the ESAS from the other side. No matter if they come from east or west at some point these giant King Crab will be roaming the ESAS seeking all they may devour.

In addition to the deliberately introduced King Crabs other species are being accidentally transplanted to the Arctic seas as well and once established trying to get rid of them is almost pointless. This story got my attention because Zebra and Quagga mussels came into the Great Lakes accidentally in ballast water and massively changed the ecosystem where I live. The continental shelf is basically continuous from northern Greenland and going west all the way around the Arctic to Great Britain. The only substantial break is two openings between Iceland and Great Britain and between Iceland and Greenland. Even at that though the basin lip is lower than the continental shelf its actually only a few hundred feet deeper and some continental shelf dwelling species may be able to cross these two gaps as well.

Among the participants on board for this leg of the trip was Kim Howland, a research scientist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada, who joined C3 to continue a DNA sampling study that has been part of the expedition's science mission since its voyage began in June.

Unlike the easy-to-spot passengers from the Crystal Serenity, the visitors that Dr. Howland is most concerned about are hidden invaders that could soon be arriving in these waters as climate change opens the doors to increased maritime traffic.

Dr. Howland's focus is on the invasive species that can travel across oceans in the ballast water of commercial ships and that have a devastating impact when they arrive in places where they don't belong.

"The Arctic hasn't had to face this problem until now," said Dr. Howland, who is part of DFO's Arctic Research Division, based in Winnipeg. "But with ongoing warming and declines in sea ice making these waters more navigable – and more hospitable – it's a real concern."

The DNA study Dr. Howland and her colleagues is conducting is aimed at giving scientists and officials a fair warning about precisely what is coming to Canada's northern seas. Rather than look for individual specimens of an invading species which may or may not be present, the study scoops up free-floating DNA from the water, searching for genetic traces of animals that are not native to the region. Because the C3 ship is making one continuous trip through the Arctic from east to west, it can provide a snapshot of where things stand in each region and how those regions compare.

For those who live along the Great Lakes, where zebra mussels have been a scourge since they arrived in the 1980s, the problem of invasive species is not new. Similarly, Atlantic Canada has been coping with its share of interlopers. They include the European green crab, a tenacious predator that out-competes native species and can have a destabilizing effect on intertidal ecosystems – all to the detriment to local fisheries. Another threat is the common periwinkle, a type of sea snail that also originated in Europe, and which the strains the marine food chain by eating all the algae in sight, as well as transmitting a parasite that affects fish.

Historically, these and other creatures were not deemed a threat to Arctic waters, as it was presumed the harsh conditions there would prohibit their growth. But Dr. Howland has just co-authored a modelling study which suggests that this is no longer the case for some potential invaders, and it will become less so as time goes on.

"The motivation was to try to understand the threat of the arrival of new species in a region where we don't have too much information," said Jesica Goldsmit, a postdoctoral researcher with DFO and lead author of the study, which was accepted for publication last week in the journal Biological Invasions.

In the study, the researchers looked at how eight invasive species might fare in the Arctic 50 years from now based on climate forecasts. The result: "We're predicting that all the species we modelled would survive," Dr. Howland said. While the degrees to which the species are likely to migrate northward vary, all of them would find a suitable habitat somewhere in the Arctic by the end of the 50-year run, the model shows. And all of them pose a threat to the ecosystem and traditional ways of life.

One of the locations at highest risk is the relatively warmer Hudson Bay, which is considered an Arctic ecosystem even though it dips well below the Arctic Circle. Another is the Beaufort Sea, above the coast of Alaska and Western Canada, which is open to shipping coming up through the Bering Strait.

Less clear is what will happen among the maze of channels and islands that makes up the central portion of Canada's High Arctic – also known as the Kitikmeot region – where the marine biology is far less explored. This is part of what has motivated Dr. Howland and other researchers who are participating in the C3, as well as others who are conducting studies in the area. And it's clear there is little time left to gather the baseline data before region is further transformed by warming temperatures and increased shipping traffic.

Sea and land alike are affected by climate change. Jeff Saarela, a botanist and director of the Canadian Museum of Nature's Centre for Arctic Knowledge and Exploration, was also on the C3 last week, armed with a permit to collect plants as part of the expedition. Taking advantage of the ship's frequent stops in places that few scientists have ever been able to access, he spent much of the voyage with his knees in the dirt, trowel in hand, extracting specimens.

"We know the Arctic is the fastest-warming part of the planet, and we know that species are responding," Dr. Saarela said. "To document when something has moved, you have to know what was there before."

Along the voyage there were hints of the transformation to come. After leaving Cambridge Bay, expedition leaders nosed their ship west and south to the now uninhabited hamlet of Bathurst Inlet.


More on the Canadian study taking place HERE
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Seabed to surface, gas underneath

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 10:56:31

Diss,

You were part of the ESAS bomb crowd that predicted imminent mass gas release. You had no basis for your gut feelings.
Ward buys into the instant extinction from the impactor theory. He says nothing about the thick layers of pink limestone that overlap the thin irridium layer. The anoxic regime is a CH4 and H2S emission regime associated with warming of the oceans and not with any cooling, as opposed to the regular CO2 emission regime. For both regimes the process is remineralization of detritus rain. So life does not shut down in the upper ocean layer, which remains oxic.


Dear Diss, I wish it were different,

Mass gas release is not imminent but ongoing as we speak/write.
Seasurface temperatures have been spiking, like our changing climate, abruptly.
Look at he data, 12 degrees F above normal, the already warm, heated 1981-2011 period. 2700 ppb methane anomaly......
ESAS with an avarage dept of 50 meters means seabed warms up as well.
Shakova has done temp measurements to dept of water/seabed/relic permafrost.
Warm current headed Northwest is not a surface thing alone, a massive volume like that does not spread like oil on water.Maybe sweet water spreads like a thin layer on the surface like melt from GIS.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/

The image on the right shows warm water from the North Atlantic arriving near Svalbard. How warm is the water beneath the surface of the Arctic Ocean? The image below gives an indication, showing how much warmer the water was from October 1, 2017, to December 30, 2017, at selected areas near Svalbard, where warm water from the North Atlantic dives under the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean, carried by the Gulf Stream.


I read Wards Under a green skye a decade ago, thought he made the case that 4 out of the past 5 extinctions were climate driven and not by alien rock banging mother Earth. Could be wrong on that but it looks pretty grim on the methane issue, I'd love to see a different outcome so please do your best to make me see that the ESAS is as stable as it has been for a million years or so.
At least the upcoming 50 years so I can roam this Earth with infrastructures intact. :) Love to drive 8)

Tanada, that Guy Mcph. is teaching to accept our fate, our death as a personal affair, to live with this knowledge everyday, to let go of hope, fear etc.
To use death as an advisor to make the right choices now, this moment and feelings which is all we have, freedom to live now, to let go of past and future.
Ooh, on that piece of crab, I bet they taste great!
Seafood is easier to catch then hunting , trapping and gathering.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 11:16:35

onlooker wrote:Given all the other mass extinction events associated with warming, the land is no refuge during warming events.--- Sorry to intervene your technical discussion but this relates to me what I read about hydrogen sulfide and it's role in poisoning land life after the oceans experience this Ocean anoxi and die off. I post this article that points to this dynamic as central to the Mass Extinction Event
Just curious to hear more expert elaboration from Dissident who in my layman opinion sounds the most knowledgeable and credible in his assessment of this topic https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 063957.htm


H2S has a rather short photochemical lifetime of about 9 days (compare to CH4 which lasts 10 years). But the primary ocean emissions regions would be coastal since most biotic activity is coastal. So its lifetime is long enough for substantial penetration over land. If ocean emissions reach toxic levels, then it is possible to kill off animal (and even plant) life near the coasts.

It is strange that the linked synopsis does not mention the H2S lifetime once. I am not knee jerk dismissing the potential reduced sulfur compound contribution to land extinctions, but a mechanism to explain the collapse of the hydroxyl sink for H2S needs to be provided. There would have been plenty of OH production in the atmosphere from H2O during the warming event in question. It is possible that both CH4 and H2S ocean production and emissions could have overwhelmed the OH production or, more precisely, the OH concentrations in the lower troposphere would have been reduced compared to non-anoxic periods (OH is formed from the reaction of H2O and O3 which requires formation of atomic oxygen, which is most efficient in the upper troposphere due to UV photolysis of O2).

If OH concentrations were too low in the lower troposphere, then H2S, CH4, CO and other toxic compounds could have accumulated in the near-surface atmospheric layer over land. There really needs to be more awareness of the global impact of ocean biochemistry.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 11:40:24

onlooker wrote:Also, would not die off of plankton reduce dramatically oxygen levels for land creatures?


I believe the fossil record does not show any major depletion of O2 from the atmosphere during warming events. O2 would have been reduced mostly by more biomass burning during warming events. The total reservoir of O2 in the atmosphere and oceans is vast and reducing its production by 50% would not change the concentrations dramatically over short periods of time.

Also, the upper ocean would actually experience more net primary productivity under warming. if the anoxia killed off the source of the detritus that produced it, then it would be dramatically self-limiting. There is no indication that the detritus rain attenuates during pink limestone epochs. In fact, there is good reason to believe that it intensifies and pushes the system further into the anoxic regime.

Currently the detritus rain is produced by oxic biochemistry linked life cycles (phytoplankton use sunlight to grow and sustain a population of zooplankton grazers). If the phytoplankton collapses during warming events due to toxic side effects, then something must replace it. I am not enough of an ocean biologist to say if there are phytoplankton that can resist H2S exposure. But I can wave my hands based on chemistry: H2S is about 3 times more soluble than CO2 in water at 308 K, so it would accumulate to some extent but would not be trapped in the ocean water. If the whole carbon cycle of the oceans is to be sustained, then phytoplankton and zooplankton must have a high tolerance for H2S and one would expect this just from natural selection. Over the last 500+ million years these micro-organisms have been exposed selective pressure by warming events.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.4 ... 4.0941/pdf

It seems that phytoplankton can actually produce H2S and uses reduced metal chemistry (e.g. formation of metal sulfide compounds, which are highly insoluble) to detoxify from excess H2S. This is yet more evidence why it cannot be safely assumed that H2S will shut down the plankton activity in the oceans. Something must maintain the detritus rain and its anoxic remineralization to maintain H2S (and CH4) production).
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 11:43:05

dohboi wrote:Yes, 'scientific reticence' sometimes drives me crazy.


Guy has pointed out that Mann is in the mainstream who is allowed to publish ONLY because he includes those waffle terms. I presume Mann knows the truth, but hey, you want to be a celebrity and not purged from mainstream exposure.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 11:54:26

but hey, you want to be a celebrity and not purged from mainstream exposure.-----
celebrity = big bucks
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 13:00:34

Thanks for the link, dis, and for the stuff about the crabs, T...I had some fuzzy recollection of some such thing, but couldn't put my finger on it...age?? :-D
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See no methane.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:19:26

Repost from 2013: Robert S. on Methane.

https://robertscribbler.com/tag/methane-tracker/

Since then things have not been getting colder up there, water and land temp. have increased a lot.
If you were in control of armies, banking etc. would you want others to know of our present situation?

Anyway, it does not matter, but being aware of your mortality brings the fruit of living each day as it comes, since it might be your last we'd better do our best, whatever it is.

Why would ocean Chemistry change overnight?
Ocean overturning? Sudden abrupt flip flop?

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 00:25:51

GLOBAL MEAN NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... p_activity
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 11:34:48

dohboi wrote:GLOBAL MEAN NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... p_activity


This actually makes sense. The moisture content of the atmosphere is increasing exponentially as per the Clasius Clapeyron relation and most of the atmospheric moisture resides near the surface. The vertical slice of specific humidity is almost hyperbolic but deep convection can make it exponential. So the radiative transfer impact of the increasing moisture content in the atmosphere is concentrated near the surface.

This subject is interesting for the Arctic. As the sea ice reaches full zero volume and extent in September sometime in the next decade, the winter time recovery could be greatly counteracted by the evapouration moisture layer near the sea surface. The Arctic winter marine boundary layer could be moist enough to trap the IR emissions from the sea water and sustain a near surface micro-climate that suppresses ice growth. Of course life is not so simple, since strong winds can blow off this "fur coat" and promote freezing. But overall, this effect should not be fobbed off.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 21:53:56

"winter time recovery could be greatly counteracted by the evapouration moisture layer near the sea surface. The Arctic winter marine boundary layer could be moist enough to trap the IR emissions from the sea water and sustain a near surface micro-climate that suppresses ice growth"

Thanks, dis. This is what I have been trying to explain here and elsewhere, but people just don't seem to be able to grasp it, even though there is plenty of paleo-evidence (and just plain physics) to support it.
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High winter surface sea temp.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 08:39:14

That Facebook linky is pretty hazy, at least the graph/figure with time/surface temp.


Allright, so these past few winters with incredible high temperatures, rain on top of the northpole.....are not caused by methane burbs but a natural side effect of lack of sea ice?
I thought the methane emissions were partly resonsible for the extreme temp. lately, together with arctic amp. Jet breaking up, polar front and vortex acting wierd.

I were suprised by the abnormalities in wintertime, you would expect extreme summer temp.with high methane concentrations.

Very curious what will happen next, after the ice is history.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 09:33:31

I think this quoted passage captures quite well what happens next and what the scientific community increasingly believes will happen
"Few people understand that the Arctic sea ice “death spiral” represents more than just a major ecological upheaval in the world’s Far North. The decline of Arctic sea ice also has profound global climatic effects, or feedbacks, that are already intensifying global warming and have the potential to destabilize the climate system. Indeed, we are not far from the moment when the feedbacks themselves will be driving the change every bit as much as our continuing emission of billions of tons of carbon dioxide annually. "
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as_arcti ... fy_wadhams
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:38:58

Not exactly climate chaos but somewhat related.

I’m in Florida. We have our small apartment building in Philly. Oil heat. Philly like much of the country is getting a prolonged cold spell.

It ran out of oil Thursday night. It took the oil company until 5pm to get someone there. They sent a technician who apparently put in 5 gallons and left. That didn’t make it until midnight.

The oil company service desk is swamped, half hour on hold to talk to someone. And all she can do is take messages because no one in the company will talk to her. This is a big oil delivery company. She can tell me just about nothing. Apparently the supervisors are all out running delivery trucks.

The point, yes this is extreme cold, but not some major shift in the climate. People can’t deal with even minor changes. The system is very fragile and marginal. I could find no news of oil delivery problems on google. Yet my building manager and the oil company are telling me many, many, many households are without heat.

I’m starting to wonder if the oil companies are having difficulty obtaining oil?

How would we react if there was some truely significant shift in the climate?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:49:43

Thanks for the Wadham update, here is a recent Beckwith assesment: dec 2017.


https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/12/25/the ... nce-talks/

Early snow retreat on the West Siberian Plains warms air temperatures, amplifying Rossby waves, causing a ridge and warming over Laptev Sea (thus rapid Arctic ice loss). Large cyclones, now stronger and lasting longer cause sea ice spreading with more melt. Strong Antarctic Circumpolar Ocean Currents, driven by stronger winds cause increased upwelling in places (depending on bathymetry) reducing overturning circulation (downwelling). Sea ice rheology, surface melt ponds, filaments and mesoscale eddies are all messed up.

YouTube predictions from februari last year.....bit outdated!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 14:40:50

Newfie wrote:Not exactly climate chaos but somewhat related.

I’m in Florida. We have our small apartment building in Philly. Oil heat. Philly like much of the country is getting a prolonged cold spell.

It ran out of oil Thursday night. It took the oil company until 5pm to get someone there. They sent a technician who apparently put in 5 gallons and left. That didn’t make it until midnight.

The oil company service desk is swamped, half hour on hold to talk to someone. And all she can do is take messages because no one in the company will talk to her. This is a big oil delivery company. She can tell me just about nothing. Apparently the supervisors are all out running delivery trucks.

The point, yes this is extreme cold, but not some major shift in the climate. People can’t deal with even minor changes. The system is very fragile and marginal. I could find no news of oil delivery problems on google. Yet my building manager and the oil company are telling me many, many, many households are without heat.

I’m starting to wonder if the oil companies are having difficulty obtaining oil?

How would we react if there was some truely significant shift in the climate?



Newfie during the 2013 cold snap I had to go to the gas station and get 5 gallon cans of diesel to keep the oil furnace running for two days until a delivery truck could fill up the 275 gallon tank. My advice tell your handyman this simple trick, road diesel runs fine in 99% of oil furnaces and though you are paying road tax on the fuel it is a whole lot cheaper than buying new plumbing for the building and dealing with structural damage from burst pipes!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 15:40:28

Wore myself out in that one already. I’ve even got Jerry cans in the basement. One tenent was all ready to do it but wife vetoed him. Can’t get building manager to do it.

VERY frustrating

Light a candle or curse the dark.

People, baby!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 22:28:14

Best wishes, Newf...

meanwhile

Enhanced H2S production alongside RCP 8.5 projected CH4 releases ... creating a Permian-Triassic style feedback loop to destroy ozone:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 28384/full
Title: Role of hydrogen sulfide in a Permian-Triassic boundary ozone collapse

Abstract:
Using a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model of the troposphere and stratosphere, we find that hydrogen sulfide alone is unlikely to directly affect stratospheric ozone, even for hydrogen sulfide emission rates as large as 5000 Tg(S) per year. However, we also find that large quantities of hydrogen sulfide create a significant decrease in tropospheric hydroxyl radical, leading to a commensurate increase in atmospheric methane. Therefore a large methane flux (possibly from methane clathrate destabilization, Siberian traps or hydrothermal vent complexes) combined with a large hydrogen sulfide oceanic flux is much more likely to lead to an ozone collapse than methane or hydrogen sulfide alone with implications to the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction 250 million years ago.

-
... lower hydroxyl concentration increases the GWP of methane since it is not removed from the atmosphere as rapidly. It also aids in stratospheric cloud production to destroy ozone.

thanks to ap at asif for this...
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