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Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ti

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ti

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 17:16:59

We're running out of new oil. Explorers in 2017 discovered the least amount of oil since at least the 1940s, according to Rystad Energy, an oil and gas consultancy. It estimated that less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent were found this year through Thursday. Some energy companies will announce more discoveries next year in their 2017 annual reports, but Rystad expects this to increase the 2017 total by 10% at most. New discoveries have fallen every year since 2014, when oversupply triggered an oil crash that cut its price by more than half. The plunge forced many upstream oil producers to reduce their spending, and helps explain why discoveries are also down. But that's not the only reason: explorers are finding less oil resources per field, according to Rystad. An average offshore discovery held about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2017


Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 17:17:42

Sounds pretty bad!!! Almost like peak oil! Again!! Except wasn't peak oil trying to sell peak in discoveries back like in the 1960's?
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 19:07:10

AdamB wrote:Sounds pretty bad!!! Almost like peak oil!


You're right---it does sounds eerily similar to peak oil.

AdamB wrote: ... wasn't peak oil trying to sell peak in discoveries back like in the 1960's?


You're right again. The chart you posted of oil discoveries does indeed show a peak in oil discoveries back in the 1960s.

You're two for two. Very good.

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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 20:19:13

the problem with this type of analysis is it ignores three major factors: 1. exploration has basically stopped around the world since 2014, virtually no new wildcats drilled anywhere and 2. there is a lot of discovered oil that has not come on stream, discoveries in Brazil and West Africa as an example and 3. when speaking of discoveries reserve growth is ignored.

When oil price rises exploration will increase and technology will help improve recovery factors. It doesn't get rid of the idea of Peak Oil it simply changes the shape of the curve.
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 20:27:21

rockdoc123 wrote:When oil price rises exploration will increase ..... It doesn't get rid of the idea of Peak Oil it simply changes the shape of the curve.


Exactly right.

But no matter how high oil prices go it is unlikely we'll ever get back to discovering 55-60 billion bbls of new oil per year, as occurred during a several year span in the 1960s.

Cheers!
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 20:58:10

pstarr wrote:Note: conventional oil production (excluding corn ethanol, lighter fluid and camp stove gas) peaked in 2005


Always love hearing about these unicorns conventional oils. Can you describe how one oil might be conventional, and the characteristics of another oil that makes it..something else? The Permian and Pioneers recent efforts in the Wolfcamp, you seem quite enamored with those, how are those oils different than the same gravity oils from, say, the East Texas field?

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 21:01:55

Plantagenet wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:When oil price rises exploration will increase ..... It doesn't get rid of the idea of Peak Oil it simply changes the shape of the curve.


Exactly right.

But no matter how high oil prices go it is unlikely we'll ever get back to discovering 55-60 billion bbls of new oil per year, as occurred during a several year span in the 1960s.

Cheers!


Fortunate then that the scientist types are hard awork studying when "new" oil comes from, after it has been discovered!

Colin Campbell went down in flames over this one, fortunate that some of us learned from his mistakes!

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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 21:55:46

AdamB wrote:scientist types are hard awork[/url] studying when "new" oil comes from, after it has been discovered!


?????

Are you referring to "reserve growth"? You've got your terminology wrong again---thats not considered "new oil." It just reflects changes in the amount of oil in an existing field that is considered "recoverable."

----------------------------------------

The world consumes about 35 BILLION barrels of oil per year. ---If you do the math, you'll find that new oil discoveries currently aren't happening fast enough to make that up.

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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 22:01:02

thats not considered "new oil." It just reflects changes in the amount of oil in an existing field that is considered "recoverable."


Given that peak oil is all about production then any oil coming on stream that wasn't previously expected is indeed "new oil".
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 22:13:05

Given that peak oil is all about production then any oil coming on stream that wasn't previously expected is indeed "new oil".


Its not "new oil." Its oil that was previously known to be in the ground but wasn't thought to be recoverable at the time.

This thread is about new oil discoveries. The title of the thread is: "Oil discoveries are at an all-time low".

Changes in the amount of oil considered "recoverable" in an existing oilfield are not considered to be an entirely new oil discovery.

Get it now? :lol: :roll:

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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 00:12:11

Antarctica should have as much oil as any other continent. Shallow water continental shelves would be a good place to start drilling. In a hundred years or so, after catastrophic climate change, the whole continent should be relatively ice free and accessible for drilling. (If there is anyone left)
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 10:30:53

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:scientist types are hard awork[/url] studying when "new" oil comes from, after it has been discovered!


?????

Are you referring to "reserve growth"? You've got your terminology wrong again---thats not considered "new oil."


Well, that depends doesn't it?

Someone, like a Colin Campbell, declares that this amount of oil is it, because of his inexpert but exhaustive studies of how much oil was "discovered". It then turns out that the number was an underestimate, because someone found "new" oil in the same place the "old" oil was.

So if you don't think it is newly discovered oil, what is the best term for it? Just reserve growth? Because here is the hitch..when it happens, what Colin does is he takes the "new" volumes, and puts them back inside the "discovered" column on those types of discovery graphs, revising them upwards. That would seem to indicate he might think this oil is "discovered", even decades after it actually was?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 11:46:39

AdamB wrote:So if you don't think it is newly discovered oil, what is the best term for it? Just reserve growth?


Yes, its called reserve growth.

Oil isn't newly discovered if its already been discovered.

Think about it.

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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 12:05:19

You get magically more oil then none then bankruptcy haha
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 12:31:03

Yes and a select few will go out into space when Earth cannot be inhabited and we will chose a lucky planet to give it the Earth treatment. Will we become the Empire of Star Wars?
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Re: Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock i

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 12:40:05

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yes and a select few will go out into space when Earth cannot be inhabited and we will chose a lucky planet to give it the Earth treatment. Will we become the Empire of Star Wars?

KJ is the Emperor. Or is he Darth Vader? I always got them confused :arrow: :idea: :lol: 8)

Darth is the guy in black and the Emperor is the dude wearing the hood :lol:
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