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What Happened to Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:33:45

I was first introduced to the concept of "peak oil" 15 years ago. It was a simple theory: Oil is a finite resource. At some point in time, the world's ability to increase oil production would ultimately “peak.” And this peak would be followed by a terminal decline in global output. The theory has been around for almost a century. But the man who popularized the idea was an American geophysicist named M. King Hubbert. In 1956 Mr. Hubbert presented a research report to the American Petroleum Institute that predicted oil production in the United States would peak in 1970. Turns out he was right. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day. And production did decline afterwards. But Hubbert didn’t see one thing coming: hydraulic fracking. Hydraulic fracking and other enhanced oil recovery methods were successfully introduced in the new millennium, allowing


What Happened to Peak Oil?
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:40:44

Sheer asshattery. Hubbert had already written a paper by 1955 counting hydraulic fracturing jobs at more than 100,000. So yes Mr Asshat blogger, Hubbert certainly not only knew about hydraulic fracturing, but had published papers on it, and built some seminal work on rock mechanics around the basic premise BEFORE he kicked out his 1956 Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels paper. And just as obviously, the volumes being produced via this completion technique were already baked into his oil totals he used in that paper, otherwise known as the Genesis Chapter of the peak oil bible.

The EPA has put out the reference that 2/3's of all hydraulic fracturing occurred in the LAST century. Asshat. There is no magic here, only your ignorance of basic history.

I am of the belief that peak oil nonsense continues to be perpetuated on the gullible and ignorant exactly because of fools who know nothing about the history of this stuff repeating what some other fool said, neither fool having bothered to look up the facts of the matter. I can just see Gail and Ugo and all the rest of the church of peak getting all lathered up and referencing this chucklehead on facebook in the coming days and weeks.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:53:46

We got another Ghawar field out of shale. That's what happened. Technology and unconventional oil beat the peak.

Eventually diminishing returns will kick in with oil globally but that's at least 5-10 years away. But that's not a problem either as we have decades of natural gas to power the economy.

There is no doom.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 14:05:10

Except that tight shale can not profitably be produced under $70/barrel and the consumer can not afford $70/barrel. It's called a predicament or conundrum . . . a problem without a solution.


Once again complete BS. From Rystad Energy February, 2017
Since 2013, the average wellhead breakeven price (BEP) for key shale plays has decreased from 80 USD/bbl to 35 USD/bbl. This represents a decrease of over 55%, on average. As Figure 1 indicates, the wellhead BEP decreased across all key shale plays, with Permian Midland experiencing the largest decrease, falling by over 60% from 98 USD/bbl in 2013 to 38 USD/bbl in 2016 .
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 14:25:20

pstarr wrote:
mmasters wrote:We got another Ghawar field out of shale. That's what happened. Technology and unconventional oil beat the peak.

Eventually diminishing returns will kick in with oil globally but that's at least 5-10 years away. But that's not a problem either as we have decades of natural gas to power the economy.

There is no doom.

Except that tight shale can not profitably be produced under $70/barrel and the consumer can not afford $70/barrel. It's called a predicament or conundrum . . . a problem without a solution.

I don't feel sorry for the consumers that can't afford it at 70. It's kind of like feeling sorry for the people that don't do well in high school.

I think it is moving more and more to the haves and have nots. It may not be fair or right with some of the haves (like the Kardashians for example) but that's life.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 18:32:30

pstarr wrote:
mmasters wrote:We got another Ghawar field out of shale. That's what happened. Technology and unconventional oil beat the peak.

Eventually diminishing returns will kick in with oil globally but that's at least 5-10 years away. But that's not a problem either as we have decades of natural gas to power the economy.

There is no doom.

Except that tight shale can not profitably be produced under $70/barrel and the consumer can not afford $70/barrel. It's called a predicament or conundrum . . . a problem without a solution.


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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 21:17:08

mmasters wrote:I don't feel sorry for the consumers that can't afford it at 70. It's kind of like feeling sorry for the people that don't do well in high school.

I think it is moving more and more to the haves and have nots. It may not be fair or right with some of the haves (like the Kardashians for example) but that's life.


Unfortunately, that's not how capitalist systems work.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 08:32:49

Peak oil will still happen, it is a physical certainty that at some point in the future, oil production will reach a level that is never repeated!

The only uncertainty is whether the decline in output will have an adverse impact on the economy or will alternative sources of energy and/or changes in the way of life mitigate the reduced supply sufficiently to avoid any future crisis’s.

My expectation is that a combination of EVs, increased urban living and increasing developments of public transport will prevent a "peak oil crisis".

With EVs, there will be a requirement to continue the development of batteries and wind/solar power generation to keep up with the increasing demands for electricity. I also expect gas fired power stations to be brought on-line to replace dirty coal or for major investment to clean up the emissions from them.
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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 11:46:42

mmasters wrote:There is no doom.


Sure there is. The problem is that some folks want, desire, NEED, doom NOW, not when it can be expected happen with 100% certainty.

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Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?

Unread postby tita » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 12:54:14

AdamB wrote:
mmasters wrote:There is no doom.


Sure there is. The problem is that some folks want, desire, NEED, doom NOW, not when it can be expected happen with 100% certainty.

Image

You keep talking about Mad Max/zombie apocalypse kind of things... Like if everybody predicting peak oil is some kind of fool in the street brandishing a panel with "The end is NEAR" written on it.

We don't live in movies. But yeah, some people on this earth live in doom currently. Some even directly related to the depletion of oil.

Depletion of resources is a real thing... It's happening. I'm convinced that exponential growth is not sustainable. Does that makes me an doomer? We will probably outgrow from the ultra-consumption society we live in. I don't know how, but I also don't believe in getting out of it by consuming more.
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