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If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:55:20

KaiserJeep wrote:OK, but YOU are betting that post-crash gold has value beyond fishing weights and jewelry, are you not?


I'm betting on a number of things, KJ. Most of you have no Plan B. I have Plan A,B,C,D..... I'm even planning on BAU for a while,, or not. That said, all of my plans involve avoiding the numerous traps that our society has set for you. Debt? fugetaboutit. A lot of my wealth in equities and paper assets? Nope. New vehicles? None that I can't charge using my home energy system. Expensive vacations? Not when I can put that time and energy into plans B,C,and D. Chances are I've been there, done that, anyway. Utter dependency on top-down hyper-complex systems? Not when that can be avoided. Making long-term financial commitments? See 'debt', above.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby aspera » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:06:01

Ghung: "...good neighbors"

Yes. That's why among other everyday behaviors we promote "well fed neighbors." Frightening to think of the alternative.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:08:42

A 24,000 on the DOW has not completely destroyed the doomer segment, in fact it has made them more frantic with their doomeristic predictions.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:23:50

So I'm interpreting what you say to mean that you believe that gold will have value beyond the approximately $30/lb in barter equivalent I would be willing to trade you for it, only if I wanted to cast bullets or fishing weights.

As I believe that BAU will persist for 2-10 decades, my own priorities are to establish two family homesteads that each are relatively independant, on the island of Nantucket and in Wisconsin's dairyland area. But I'm not of the opinion that each homestead must be totally independant either. I believe that completely independant homesteads will perish relatively soon. I believe they are too burdensome in terms of labor and required materials to persist beyond a year or two of intense misery. As a member of a viable and vital community of a few dozen to a few thousand people, you have a much better chance of living many more years. So in-person social networking with your neighbors and relative strangers in the community will be required.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:49:48

KJ said; "But I'm not of the opinion that each homestead must be totally independant either. I believe that completely independant homesteads will perish relatively soon. I believe they are too burdensome in terms of labor and required materials to persist beyond a year or two of intense misery. As a member of a viable and vital community of a few dozen to a few thousand people, you have a much better chance of living many more years."


Another binary conclusion. The two are not mutually exclusive, nor are they an either/or plan. One can have a largely independent homestead while being an important member of a community. Indeed, some of the most independent folks I know are deeply involved in their community.

As for "too burdensome in terms of labor and required materials to persist beyond a year or two of intense misery", that's is also a bias you have. Misery for me was going to the same job day after day, year after year sitting in a cubical producing virtual BS on a computer screen that will quickly become obsolete. Seemed like a helluva way to waste a life. And my material needs have dropped, not gone up.

My goal is to reduce complexity in my life. Seems you plan the opposite.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:03:18

GHung wrote:
KJ said; "But I'm not of the opinion that each homestead must be totally independant either. I believe that completely independant homesteads will perish relatively soon. I believe they are too burdensome in terms of labor and required materials to persist beyond a year or two of intense misery. As a member of a viable and vital community of a few dozen to a few thousand people, you have a much better chance of living many more years."


Another binary conclusion. The two are not mutually exclusive, nor are they an either/or plan. One can have a largely independent homestead while being an important member of a community. Indeed, some of the most independent folks I know are deeply involved in their community.

As for "too burdensome in terms of labor and required materials to persist beyond a year or two of intense misery", that's is also a bias you have. Misery for me was going to the same job day after day, year after year sitting in a cubical producing virtual BS on a computer screen that will quickly become obsolete. Seemed like a helluva way to waste a life. And my material needs have dropped, not gone up.

My goal is to reduce complexity in my life. Seems you plan the opposite.

I own a inexpensive but capable metal cutting band saw from Harbor Freight. The technology is a hundred years old, cast-iron frame and rubber belts. With that saw, and an equally crude Harbor Freight lathe I could probably build anything . . . if I knew what i was doing lol

The Chinese used this same antiquated technology (almost right up to the present time) to be become the world's leading manufacturing presence. And likewise for us in our crude 3rd world dreams. We here on our homesteads don't need to compete with Elon Musk. We can make do with 20th century technology just fine. Like the Chinese did until quite recently.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:13:28

Before you do any lathe work hippie, put that pony-tail up in a hair net. I'd hate to see you scalped.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:25:58

Cog wrote:Before you do any lathe work hippie, put that pony-tail up in a hair net. I'd hate to see you scalped.

Before you randomly bang away at your (pre-USB) PS/2 mini-DIN serial COM parallel bus input/output keyboard, you might want to bone up on what you are actually doing here.

Lesson for Cog: It's not magic talk on a mysterious writing machine. It's called technology.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:30:27

I'm seen industrial accidents before chief. The vision of your pony-tail being wrapped around a lathe might bring some people joy but it does not me. I might want to buy some dope from you when I get old so I need you around after the crash.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:50:03

KJ I think you are a bridge too far thinking that gold and silver will only be good for fish weights. There value will always be set by what the seller of goods and services will trade for a given amount of it. In Roman times it was a certain number of loves of bread for an ounce of gold. It is not that the seller can eat or otherwise use the gold himself but that down the road he can again trade the gold for something he needs.
Back to the Romans , they often paid their soldiers in salt which was needed to cure and preserve food. Hence the expression about a good worker being "worth his salt."
Post peak oil and government collapse I expect we will use a number of things in trade including old silver coins and rifle ammunition. How many 223s will you give me for a 100 rounds of 22LR or a bushel of potatoes?
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 15:02:02

I'm simply saying what those metals are worth to ME. I also allow that the wife likes to adorn herself with gold and silver jewelry, which causes me to pay the going rate, especially at Christmas gift time. But when we move to a barter economy, I actually believe that some form of digital currency will be used. The secure online marketplace is where value and wealth lies today, and not in useless ingots and coins, which can be stolen and must always be hidden and guarded.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 15:39:42

KaiserJeep wrote:I'm simply saying what those metals are worth to ME. I also allow that the wife likes to adorn herself with gold and silver jewelry, which causes me to pay the going rate, especially at Christmas gift time. But when we move to a barter economy, I actually believe that some form of digital currency will be used. The secure online marketplace is where value and wealth lies today, and not in useless ingots and coins, which can be stolen and must always be hidden and guarded.

A "secure online marketplace" is an oxymoron.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:17:01

vtsnowedin wrote:-snip-
A "secure online marketplace" is an oxymoron.


...that must be why we are expecting to reach $414B in online sales this holiday season. The real question of course, is what will exist post-crash? I believe it will not include many B&M retail stores, aside from food stores. I think just about all remaining sales will be online, since fuel for travelling to the local B&M stores won't be affordable.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:09:51

KaiserJeep wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:-snip-
A "secure online marketplace" is an oxymoron.


...that must be why we are expecting to reach $414B in online sales this holiday season. The real question of course, is what will exist post-crash? I believe it will not include many B&M retail stores, aside from food stores. I think just about all remaining sales will be online, since fuel for travelling to the local B&M stores won't be affordable.

And with what fuel will the online stores deliver their products to you? I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order. Perhaps instead of UPS coming by every day with one package for widely scattered houses It will come once a week with every house on the route getting a weeks worth of deliveries.
Gas is cheap today and we do things based on that fact. When the facts change we will switch to what works with the new facts.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:28:24

KaiserJeep wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:-snip-
A "secure online marketplace" is an oxymoron.


...that must be why we are expecting to reach $414B in online sales this holiday season. The real question of course, is what will exist post-crash? I believe it will not include many B&M retail stores, aside from food stores. I think just about all remaining sales will be online, since fuel for travelling to the local B&M stores won't be affordable.

I don't agree. Fuel costs are higher for online peer-to-peer delivery. Online shopping is a luxury of this particular pre-recessionary bubble.

It will make no sense in an energy-constrained economy. It cost less for a manufacturer to ship to one location, instead of many. Why ship all the way to the home if the consumer is already out in the world? The consumer will always need to drive out into the retail environment to purchase food and fuel. That will never change. So the consumer will also pick up their online purchases while they out in the retail environment to purchase food and fuel.

I think Walmart and Amazon understand this. That is why both are integrating online with brick and mortar. The manufacturer ships from centrally-located warehouse to a centrally-located brick and mortar retail operation. I see a return to online catalog shopping, much like what Sears and Roebuck used to do last century. But much more convenient.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Revi » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 07:11:27

And with what fuel will the online stores deliver their products to you? I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order. Perhaps instead of UPS coming by every day with one package for widely scattered houses It will come once a week with every house on the route getting a weeks worth of deliveries.
Gas is cheap today and we do things based on that fact. When the facts change we will switch to what works with the new facts.


I think this present system will work until it doesn't. Then most things will be shipped by rail and the coasting schooner will come back into use. I plan on finding a pinky, because you can ground them out and unload their cargo. Not that fast, but it worked for many centuries!
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 07:18:54

vtsnowedin wrote:I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order.


I see obesity rates dropping fast. Just how much diet coke can you carry when you have to walk to pick up your supplies :)
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby GHung » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 07:56:53

Image

.... or maybe

Image
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 11:05:28

vtsnowedin wrote:And with what fuel will the online stores deliver their products to you?

It's a hell of a lot more efficient for the brown UPS truck (or other brand equivalent) to drive an optimized route and drop off hundreds of packages, than have everyone travel to a retail store, miles away on average. It will be decades before such delivery is really unaffordable, but if FF's get expensive then there will be a delivery surcharge. We already saw some of that in 2008. Inconvenience. Not doom.

Oh, and the fuel will be what is most practical. UPS is experimenting with electric delivery vans, NG delivery vans, etc. Such business look ahead and try to be prepared, which is one of the reasons they are competing successfully.

vtsnowedin wrote:I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order.

In how many decades? Five? There is a LOT of NG and coal. There is also a LOT of oil, though it might get rather expensive.

People can adapt and will adapt if forced to. If oil gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis, the fuel will be predominantly green electricity. NG and coal might still fire some of the electricity, depending on how the green energy curve ramps up.

Again, not doom. Change. Perhaps more cost and inconvenience. But we put up with some of that all the time -- it's called living on a more crowded planet.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: If You're Not Listening to Chris Martenson...

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 12 Sep 2018, 11:13:58

I don't see how Chris Martenson is different from any of the other Cassandras.

Well, he doesn't want to give specific timeframes -- since he wants you to pay him to read his stuff. Which makes him even more useless.

But of course, since he says what the doomers want to hear, he's a hero. :roll:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-ma ... 47403.html

How many decades must doomers follow bad advice before they stop considering bad advice a good thing?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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