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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Zarquon » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 07:53:00

Drilling for oil, rising sea levels and the disappearing wetlands in Louisiana:

http://mondediplo.com/2015/11/11louisiana
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 13:56:20

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby 35Kas » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 17:30:41

What needs to happen is that houses built on flood plains that get destroyed, and are insured under this retarded federal program, should get bought out under the terms and demolished, prohibiting re-development of such land.

Continuously wasting resources to re-build houses that get repeatedly damaged/destroyed under federal incentives is another stupid rule that must go.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 18:04:15

35Kas wrote:What needs to happen is that houses built on flood plains that get destroyed, and are insured under this retarded federal program, should get bought out under the terms and demolished, prohibiting re-development of such land.

Continuously wasting resources to re-build houses that get repeatedly damaged/destroyed under federal incentives is another stupid rule that must go.


Once a benefit is bestowed by the federal government, it cannot be taken back.

Every benefit creates a constituency that demands that its special deal not be cut.

Just add flood insurance to long list of highly inefficient government programs and subsidies along with Obamacare, biofuels, charitable deductions, state income tax write-offs, etc. etc. that can be "reformed"....which almost always means expand it and add in more money----, but will never be repealed.

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 21:24:42

Possibly meters of sea level rise within decades?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00966-x
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 22:59:22

dohboi wrote:Possibly meters of sea level rise within decades?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00966-x


But we have had very large and rapid melting events in the last 20,000 years. The current melting is slow in comparison.

Instead of looking to the past with sub 320 ppmv CO2, we have to deal with the looming cataclysms that advanced primates have never seen. Hansen's estimates of sea level rise are probably the most likely since there will be an acceleration of the melt between now and 2100. Unlike the transient spikes in melting and sea level rise after the last glacial maximum, the new regime is relentless melting and warming. There will not be decades and centuries of cooling. The cooling will have to wait for tens of thousands of years in order for the carbon reservoirs that are going to be released to deplete and for the CO2 to be chemically weathered to concentration levels where the ocean sink can re-appear.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 14:49:35

Good points. The main thing I take away from the paper is that we should expect a smooth rate of srl going forward, or even a smoothly accelerating rate of sea level rise.

Rather, we will have periods of very rapid sea level rise. So complacency about our ability to gradually adjust to incremental slr over the decades and centuries is...misplaced, for this and other reasons.

But yeah, even these high historic rates should not be seen as the upper possible limit, more likely they are the least we can expect going forward, given the extreme forcings we are introducing into the system.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 15:42:21

And...here's more on why sea level rise is likely to see some rather precipitous sudden increases at some point:

Evidence of paleoclimate Pine Island Glacier Cliff effect collapse during end of last ice age.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... 16ef3c6d1b

What’s critical about the markings, explains lead study author Matthew Wise of the University of Cambridge, is their maximum depth — 848 meters, or around 2,800 feet. Because ice floats with 10 percent of its mass above the surface and the remaining 90 percent below it, this suggests that when the ice broke from the glacier, close to 100 meters (over 3oo feet) of it was extending above the water surface.

That’s a key number, because scientists are converging on the belief that ice cliffs of about this height above the water level are no longer sustainable and collapse under their own weight — meaning that when you get a glacier this tall up against the ocean, it tends to crumble and crumble, leading to fast retreat and potentially fast sea level rise.

“If we think about how thick these icebergs would have needed to be considering these float with 90 percent of their mass and thickness beneath the sea,” Wise said, “we think of an ice cliff that was at the maximum thickness implied by the physics of the ice.”

The problem is that if it happened then, well, it could happen again. Both Pine Island glacier and its next door neighbor, Thwaites, are known to get thicker as one travels inland away from the sea, which means they are capable of once again generating ice cliffs taller than the critical size detected by the current study.

“If a cliff even higher than the ~100 m subaerial/900 m submarine cliffs were to form, as might occur with retreat of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, it might break repeatedly with much shorter pauses than now observed, causing very fast grounding line retreat and sea level rise,” explained Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, by email after reviewing the current study for the Post.
(my emphases)

More here:


Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v5 ... Y1MDUzNQS2

and an illustration of the concepts..
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v5 ... 58_F4.html

and all the figures at:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v5 ... 58_ft.html

From the abstract...

From the planform shape and cross-sectional morphologies of iceberg-keel plough marks, we find that iceberg calving during the most recent deglaciation was not characterized by small numbers of large, tabular icebergs as is observed today which would produce wide, flat-based plough marks or toothcomb-like multi-keeled plough marks. Instead, it was characterized by large numbers of smaller icebergs with V-shaped keels.

'Our findings demonstrate the effective operation of Marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) in the past, and highlight its potential contribution to accelerated future retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 05:59:05

Good find Doh. Thx.

I really appreciate the time and work you put into finding and posting these new studies.

Cheers!

PS I’m down from Everest Base Camp and back in Kathmandu w access to internet again
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 06:35:05

You're welcome and thanks for noticing.

Stay safe, man
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 06:58:38

The accelerated movement of the Pine Island and Thwaites Galcier made it on the front page of the NYT today with animated graphics of the movement of ice.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 08:07:18

Plantagenet wrote:Good find Doh. Thx.

I really appreciate the time and work you put into finding and posting these new studies.

Cheers!

PS I’m down from Everest Base Camp and back in Kathmandu w access to internet again


The main Everest climbing season ended 4 months ago. What, pray tell, were you doing there? Fall viewing?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:34:57

There’s another bit of good weather here in the high Himalayas in the early fall....After the monsoons end but before winter really settles in. We’ve had sunny weather every day on the trek up to Everest Base Camp—- even above 17000 feet it was pretty nice —- you could get by with a light down coat during the day

There was a small sign of global warming— a GLOF ie Glacial lake outburst flood down the Khumbu but it didn’t take out the bridges or trail.

Cheers!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:07:51

More on why sea level is likely to rise above standard projections within the century:

grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/

Doomsday on Ice

Rapid collapse of Antarctic glaciers could flood coastal cities by the end of this century.


By Eric Holthaus on Nov 21, 2017

"The only place in the world where you can see ice-cliff instability in action today is at Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland, one of the fastest-collapsing glaciers in the world. DeConto says that to construct their model, they took the collapse rate of Jakobshavn, cut it in half to be extra conservative, then applied it to Thwaites and Pine Island."
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 19:42:13

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 20:15:25

dohboi wrote:
Doomsday on Ice

Rapid collapse of Antarctic glaciers could flood coastal cities by the end of this century.


By Eric Holthaus on Nov 21, 2017

"The only place in the world where you can see ice-cliff instability in action today is at Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland, one of the fastest-collapsing glaciers in the world. DeConto says that to construct their model, they took the collapse rate of Jakobshavn, cut it in half to be extra conservative, then applied it to Thwaites and Pine Island."


Pine Island Glacier is already shifting to a new regime. A huge iceberg just calved off it..... Once the ice calves behind the grounding line the whole glacier will collapse and rapidly retreat just like Jacobhavn Glacier in Greenland....and then collapse will eat its way into the interior of the West Antarctic Sheet, causing ice drawdown from the entire ice sheet.

Image
Recent Pine Island Glacier iceberg calving event

Cheers!
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Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 22:59:47

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... stal-plain

Louisiana, Sinking Fast, Prepares to Empty Out Its Coastal Plain

Louisiana is finalizing a plan to move thousands of people from areas threatened by the rising Gulf of Mexico, effectively declaring uninhabitable a coastal area larger than Delaware.


...Rob Moore, a flood policy expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Chicago, said that if the state goes ahead with the plan, “then every coastal state in the country should be asking themselves, ‘If Louisiana can do this, why aren’t we?’”


I think parts of Hampton Roads region would be one of the next ones to go...with probably much greater economic consequences...

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7010

A new NASA-led study shows that land in the Hampton Roads, Virginia, metropolitan area is sinking at highly uneven rates, with a few trouble spots subsiding 7 to 10 times faster than the area average.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 23:28:24

It's a bad news/bad news sort of thing. The more fresh water you pump up from the ground, the faster it subsides. The most fresh water is pumped in areas where there are the most people.

Oddly enough, the golf courses on Nantucket are sinking pretty fast. They have multiple wells, they pump and irrigate a lot of water growing grass on sandy soils, and use a lot of chemicals in the process. This contaminates the drinking water wells in the area.
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 07:58:56

Thanks for those insights, KJ. I didn't know about the golf courses...sad and wasteful...
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Re: Mass Exodus from US Coasts begins in LA

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 09:52:37

Bloomberg thinks the rush from the coasts may be about to hit Florida:

South Florida’s Real Estate Reckoning Could Be Closer Than You Think

Hurricane Irma showed just how vulnerable South Florida—and some of the nation’s most expensive real estate—is to climate change.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -you-think
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