[Rabbit]

We have 10 large refineries that are going to be down for weeks. Even though we have a good inventory of gas on hand we are going to quickly burn through that inventory in central USA in the next few weeks. It's going to take time to bring the refineries back up to speed. I would not be surprised to see outages in areas around Texas. Station owners are better off raising prices on what they have in their tank in order to stay open, especially if they know there will be a delay before their next delivery.

[AirlinePilot]

RBOB is up to 2.09 as I write this. For most folks tack on anywhere from @ .55-.65 cents in taxes and you have the pump cost. My guess is we will hit near 3.00/gal by next week or so until the refinery picture becomes a bit clearer. Just in time for labor day weekend driving!!! Any news on the Colonial Pipeline status?

[AirlinePilot]

Scratch that last.....2.13 now!!!! Yikes.

[AirlinePilot]

Colinial lines 1 and 2 shutdown as of today. Diesel/ jetfuel and gasoline.

[ROCKMAN]

Rabbit - From 1 hour ago: "Colonial Pipeline has shut down key fuel lines running from Houston through Mississippi, Georgia Alabama and up the East Coast after Hurricane Harvey forced the closure of refineries and other facilities.

Colonial said its facilities west of Lake Charles, Louisiana are out of service due to the storms. That closure, along with hurricane-related shutdowns of refineries in the Gulf Coast, led to the decision to cease operations on Colonial's Line 2, which transports primarily diesel and aviation fuels. Line 1, which carries gasoline, will suspend service today. Line 1 had been operating at a reduced capacity since Harvey hit."

[vtsnowedin]

Latest news is that they expect the pipeline to go back into service this Sunday.
No word yet on when the refineries might get back on line and produce new product to put in the line.
With the supply on hand as per Rabbit's weekly reports 229.9 million barrels and 10 million barrels a day demand having a loss of production of 3 mbpd it should be over two months before things get critical.
A good time to keep you gas tank filled as each new fill up will be for a higher price for a while at least.

[marmico]

Colpipe media update URL.

https://harvey.colonialresponse.com/col ... 3-a-m-est/

[Subjectivist]

Toledo $2.69/gal today.

[Revi]

Yes, it's moving up a bit lately. The crude price is up, so gas prices are going up with it.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Yes, it's moving up a bit lately. The crude price is up, so gas prices are going up with it.

I was just noticing yesterday that in central KY that for the past month, that local gasoline prices haven't been moving much even as oil has increased about $5. I was wondering if the seasonal demand and switch to winter driving mixes was causing that, if it's a local aberration, if my memory is distorting things or what.

But I'm certain that aside from the hurricane spike, that normal prices have averaged somewhere around where they are right now, or $2.37. Now, maybe I go out today or this weekend and find them at $2.69 or something -- just reporting what I'm seeing. Since I'm on this site and invest in energy, I pay a moderate amount of attention. And generally, prices are fairly consistent (usually within a dime or so) across central KY, whether rural or city station.

[Subjectivist]

Reluctantly had to buy gas today and prices here were up to $2.459/gal.

[vtsnowedin]

The ten dollar increase in crude prices we have had over the last three months will translate to a 24 cent per gallon price increase that will get through the system to us soon enough.

[Cog]

You tend not to get too jazzed up about gasoline prices going up if you own oil stocks.

BP stock. Look at the one year.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... CzeQSYNEXQ

[Outcast_Searcher]

You tend not to get too jazzed up about gasoline prices going up if you own oil stocks.

I was going to point that out. Hedges are a wonderful thing. Oil stocks tend to pay dividends as well, unlike oil futures.

(BP too risky? Correlates well for past year to Shell, Chevron, etc.)

People tend to forget that, over the long haul, the broad stock market is about the most reliable and effective inflation hedge (considering both dividends and capital appreciation) that can be had by "ordinary" folk, without taking huge risks or requiring specialized knowledge.

[Tanada]

Just filled the tank for $2.859/gallon at my local station, highest it has been here in a long time.

[vtsnowedin]

Well Prices in the Toledo, Ohio area are back up to $2.759/gal how are things in your neck of the woods?

paid $2.05/gal for regular this morning. I already miss the days of $1.75/gal. Maybe come this fall, if inventories stay inflated from the glut.

Crude (WTI) has risen from $45 to $69.75 over ten months. That amounts to a $0.70 per gallon base cost increase. If that tend continues you would expect gas to reach $3.50/ gallon a year from now. Trends do change of course but at present there is no event or pressure evident that will obviously change the current trend.

[Armageddon]

Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

We produce more like 10 MBPD now (passed 8 MBPD as of 2014), but yes, we're no where near energy independent -- which is one of the reasons I want to see green energy sources succeed.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... production

[Outcast_Searcher]

Just filled the tank for $2.859/gallon at my local station, highest it has been here in a long time.

I'm seeing similar prices in central KY now. With the recent price trend and summer driving on the way, we can't be far from $3 a gallon many places, unless the trend changes right away.

[vtsnowedin]

Doesn’t the US consume approx 20 MBPD and only produces around 8 MBPD?

That 20MBPD figure includes finished products we export out after refining it. Our net import of crude and finished products is down to 2.736 MBPD down from a high in 2006 of 13.442MBPD. If gas gets to $5.00 and stays there for a year or two we will probably become a net exporter.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TNTUS2&f=M