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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 22:47:21

Conventional oil already peaked. Conventional + non-conventional is about to peak. Fracking, horizontal drilling, tar sands etc have bought us a decade. This next phase is going to get ugly. Buckle up
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 00:19:34

AdamB wrote:For you maybe. I don't make my living randomly speculating.
...
See above. I don't do popularity.


It's not random speculation or "popularity". You know how I jump down perma-doomers' throats for cherry-picking doom bloggers? The reason is that if all you do is go searching for people predicting doom, you're bound to find it.

What I'm talking about is what happens after you properly filter out the obvious quackery, when you limit the incoming news stream to the dreaded MSM that gets so much ridicule here (other than that Guardian article that keeps getting reposted every day).

When you observe that news stream, as I have done for many years, you'll start to feel a pattern. And that pattern is ever increasingly apocalyptic environment projections. It seems every day there's another increasingly pessimistic projection. I pick up these news articles without even trying, mind you, mostly from following science sites on Facebook.

That is in addition to the empirical reality of the shift in the weather that I have observed year-to-year in the Northeast.

So my lizard brain can feel the change with my own direct senses, and I can feel the shift in the news reporting.

That is in addition to having some degree of trust in well-regarded experts like Hansen and McKibben. While some of these people can be accused of being alarmist, all of them can't be. That's not the case with the peak-oil movement which was always a hodgepodge of academics mixed with quacks like Greer the "druid" and the suicidal Ruppert.

You can't be an expert in all things to have an opinion on them. You have to simply trust the experts. It's that lack of trust in experts in our demon haunted world that leads to denial on one end of the spectrum and exaggerated fast-crash doomerism on the other.

It's very difficult to walk the middle-path.

I think in your case you've become so amused by shooting fish in a barrel that you would rather extend your cornucopian viewpoint across all dimensions, whether it's warranted or not.

You just can't take the intellectual high road making those sorts of mental shortcuts. It's no different from the guy from Spain treating all bad conditions in his country as a direct result of peak-oil.

Point being that you should hold yourself up to the same rigorous standards that you do PStarr and Short.

AdamB wrote:Pointing out general idiocy can best be described as "routine entertainment" for lack of anything better to describe it.


Well, there comes a time when the smokescreen should clear and you should, ya know, stop bullshitting and lay your chips on the table.

As much as highlighting where I think certain doomers are wrong in their short-term predictions I do not lose sight of the legitimate issues that we're facing over the longer timescale, one that is no joke since if I don't face it, my offspring will. To do so would be to sort of clutch at ridicule as a cheap drug to prevent me from facing depressing data.

It's just that beyond acting as a mallet in the game of PStarr and Short whack-a-mole, what's the point of being here? What else do you have to say?

In my case, what intrigues me is the idea that we could simultaneously keep walking our way towards the technological singularity AND an apocalyptic cliff. What I've learned since I first took the red pill (the original term, not the one co-opted by the alt-right) is that the world is far more complex than I realized. Most future predictions are monochromatic. Everyone across the globe is living like Mad Max or everyone's downloaded themselves into a computer. All of these visions are waaaay oversimplified. For instance, every country has signed the Paris accord except for two countries: the US and Syria. The world is swimming with contradictions like this.

I feel that whether we're on the cusp of a Malthusian die-off or not, we are definitely at an inflection point in human evolution. AI alone is poised to destroy capitalism as we know it by making huge swaths of people unemployable. Just that alone is going to usher in huge and probably painful changes. What happens if we really perfect quantum computing? What happens if we start geoengineering?

Should I simply stumble my way into the future or should I at least stay informed about all this?

It's fine for you to slap PStarr and Short by virtue of gas being cheap and likely to remain so for some time....but please don't casually shrug off serious topics like topsoil loss, ocean acidification, disruption of the jetstream and ocean circulation, etc...

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 03:40:37

asg70, that was well stated.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 04:54:48

Agree, i will be paying more attention to Asg70 now on.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 10:02:16

Yes, well said Asg. I may add that environmental degradation is already well advanced. We are already into the 6th Mass Extinction, CO2 levels are already higher than they have been for millions of years, the Jet stream has already slowed significantly, pollution has already been killing many humans, phytoplankton have already decreased significantly, we have lost already much topsoil, bees/insects are already dying in mass, the Arctic already seems to be on a self-reinforcing warming trend etc.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 10:23:46

onlooker wrote:Yes, well said Asg. I may add that environmental degradation is already well advanced. We are already into the 6th Mass Extinction, CO2 levels are already higher than they have been for millions of years, the Jet stream has already slowed significantly, pollution has already been killing many humans, phytoplankton have already decreased significantly, we have lost already much topsoil, bees/insects are already dying in mass, the Arctic already seems to be on a self-reinforcing warming trend etc.


I'm with you on all this. No linking to Zerohedge necessary.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 14:55:19

Armageddon wrote:Conventional oil already peaked.


When you can define it, you can claim that this is indeed true. But people really can't, because oil is long chain carbons and hydrocarbons, and you can't tell me the difference between one set of conventional and the other set of whatever.

Armageddon wrote:Conventional + non-conventional is about to peak.


Heard this one before. Considering you don't know how to define the one, it is unlikely you can define the other, therefore you can't define the combination. Plus, this is the same claim ASPO was making in Washington in 2011. The reason question is, how many more times over how many more years will people keep making the same claim? Right until peak demand hits from Tony Seba's S-curve attack of autonomous vehicles?

Armageddon wrote: Fracking, horizontal drilling, tar sands etc have bought us a decade. This next phase is going to get ugly. Buckle up


We've had the first 2 for 60+ years, and the last for quarter century. You figure maybe they weren't doing what they were doing all along, and it is just a matter of certain folks learning and PRETENDING it is therefore new?
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 15:16:36

We've had the first 2 for 60+ years, and the last for quarter century. You figure maybe they weren't doing what they were doing all along, and it is just a matter of certain folks learning and PRETENDING it is therefore new? ----
The whole point is we did not need to access the oil is this manner before because it was more accessible oil. So now we frack rock formations to get the oil utilizing energy to do so and we are getting crude that is not as easily converted to useable products like gasoline as before. All this making total economic logic, as we focused on the sweet spots first because they were easy to exploit and released more oil. Thus higher rates of economic return. Touting technology ignores the fact that any technology is relying on energy to function. All our worldwide efforts to extract oil are manifesting an exhaustive attempt to attain oil no matter where it is and how deep and inaccessible. So we may be getting more oil from inaccessible places and previously inaccessible formations but at the cost of utilizing ever more energy. The Law of Diminishing returns Adam.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 15:17:41

asg70 wrote:
It's just that beyond acting as a mallet in the game of PStarr and Short whack-a-mole, what's the point of being here? What else do you have to say?


Well, let me just suggest that the two avenues you suggest need not be in the same location.

asg70 wrote:In my case, what intrigues me is the idea that we could simultaneously keep walking our way towards the technological singularity AND an apocalyptic cliff.


Intriguing indeed.

asg70 wrote:It's fine for you to slap PStarr and Short by virtue of gas being cheap and likely to remain so for some time....but please don't casually shrug off serious topics like topsoil loss, ocean acidification, disruption of the jetstream and ocean circulation, etc...


Been starting posts on just those topics as of late, for folks interested.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 15:30:20

onlooker wrote:We've had the first 2 for 60+ years, and the last for quarter century. You figure maybe they weren't doing what they were doing all along, and it is just a matter of certain folks learning and PRETENDING it is therefore new? ----
The whole point is we did not need to access the oil is this manner before because it was more accessible oil.


True. And you can count the technological change required to get us more accessible oil since 1901.

I can count maybe 6 or 7 technological revolutions necessary since then

Is the point you are trying to make is that we only have 2 or 3 left?

onlooker wrote: So now we frack rock formations to get the oil utilizing energy to do so and we are getting crude that is not as easily converted to useable products like gasoline as before.


Your assumptions about what has "ease" to make gasoline or not is ill-informed. Light tight oil (of a density indicating it is closer to an NGL than oil) produced from shale formations can make natural gasoline, requiring nearly no conversion effort to get to gasoline to put in your car. You have been sold a bill of goods in this regard. Using it straight from the stock tends tends to burn valves, but it takes while.

onlooker wrote: All this making total economic logic, as we focused on the sweet spots first because they were easy to exploit and released more oil. Thus higher rates of economic return. Touting technology ignores the fact that any technology is relying on energy to function. All our worldwide efforts to extract oil are manifesting an exhaustive attempt to attain oil no matter where it is and how deep and inaccessible. So we may be getting more oil from inaccessible places and previously inaccessible formations but at the cost of utilizing ever more energy. The Law of Diminishing returns Adam.


So the question still stands...we've done 6 or 7 revolutions, how many do we have left? And as long as diminishing returns is offset by increasing efficient use, it is still a net net change of 0.

Join the crowd of those who don't even use liquid fuels for everyday transport, and you can diminish the returns all you'd like.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 19:37:59

From Oil slick to Tyranny...

We elect politicians to lie on our behalf, because we want to be told that our resources and growth are infinite. In return for our votes, they are happy to do this. Everyone is complicit in the grand deceit, to accept the truth would destroy the existence of all of us.....
https://extranewsfeed.com/from-oilslick ... 5d04b31fc3



World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... -Says.html


:twisted: :twisted:
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 19:44:43

A world no longer powered by fossil fuels, no matter what incarnation, is almost inconceivable and for many terrifying. . It is indeed traumatic for what it might (probably) mean not just for us but also for our love ones, children, grandchildren. Our hearts break. We want to fix it….
Dennis Meadows "There's Nothing We Can Do"
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/04/dennis-meadows-there-is-nothing-that-we-can-do/
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Cog » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 22:15:55

Fix what?
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 02:00:59

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... -Says.html


Several years of underinvestment in large oil projects could lead to oil price spikes of $80-$100 per barrel by the 2020s unless mega projects are sanctioned very soon, Jonathan Chanis, Vice President of Policy at Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), told Platts in an interview on Monday.

First, Goldman Sachs frequently makes MANY predictions about various prices. Lots of them are wrong. So why get wound up about this one in particular?

Second, if the worst news you can come up with while spouting doom is that oil prices might spike back up to about the level they were at on average for four years straight from 2010 - 2014, without causing much of an issue for the global or US economy (since GDP growth continued throughout that period just fine) -- you should be celebrating.

You see, minor inconvenience is NOT doom, tyranny, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 02:31:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... -Says.html


Several years of underinvestment in large oil projects could lead to oil price spikes of $80-$100 per barrel by the 2020s unless mega projects are sanctioned very soon, Jonathan Chanis, Vice President of Policy at Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), told Platts in an interview on Monday.

First, Goldman Sachs frequently makes MANY predictions about various prices. Lots of them are wrong. So why get wound up about this one in particular?

Second, if the worst news you can come up with while spouting doom is that oil prices might spike back up to about the level they were at on average for four years straight from 2010 - 2014, without causing much of an issue for the global or US economy (since GDP growth continued throughout that period just fine) -- you should be celebrating.

You see, minor inconvenience is NOT doom, tyranny, etc.



Obama had the lowest growth of any US president in history...But growth was fine between 2010-2014. ..LOL and it was the oil price that caused the great recession..See Below..You dumb trolls will never learn..I can tell the economy is doing horrible because they are paying for shit these days..

Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08 (Hamilton, 2009)
https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles ... f-2007-08/
Dennis Meadows "There's Nothing We Can Do"
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2013/04/dennis-meadows-there-is-nothing-that-we-can-do/
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby Cog » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 06:06:32

Maybe a career path at Starbucks was not the correct one. :)
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Re: Oil Supply Shortage > Collapse > Anarchy 2030

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 13:38:03

Let's go over the concept of a "oil shortage". First, if one can afford the current price of oil (be it $50 or $100 or $147 per bbl) there is no "oil shortage". And if the world is producing 85 million bopd while it's selling for $28/bbl and your economy can't afford that price the you would be suffering from an "oil shortage"...from the perspective of those consumers. And there were economies that couldn't afford much oil when prices did fall to $28/bbl a couple of years ago.

So under what conditions might a real "oil shortage" exists? If oil prices dropped so low that consumers could afford to buy 100 million bopd but the producers could only delivery 90 million bopd. Of course such a condition would not last very long: those consumers that could pay more would bid the price back up.

And thus no "oil shortage"...supply and demand would be back in balance. Just as it was when oil hit $147 in 2008 and $17 in 1998. And just as it is today at whatever the current price is.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 16:45:03

https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the ... 27c649754c
The Collapse of Global Civilization Has Begun
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:22:20

onlooker wrote:https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c
The Collapse of Global Civilization Has Begun


Don't forget to donate to his doomer website. We surely wouldn't want to miss one word of his doom. :lol:
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:31:36

onlooker wrote:https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c
The Collapse of Global Civilization Has Begun


Again? Any chance folks will notice this one?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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