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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:27:09

SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


Was copy paste ...

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... oms-large/
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:06:04

SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


It's a Desert-ster, certainly.
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:35:40

pstarr wrote:The recent Cal drought lasted 3-4 years, with record rains before and record rains after. (This year was a douzy). How many of those previous 100 year-CO2-anthropomorphic droughts could have been recorded since the industrial age and the rise of CO2? Two does not make a trend.


The heat stress is adding to this and, for instance, reducing the fog coverage and, therefore, the Redwood Forest range to just an teeny-bit of what it was before.
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 13:19:17

The Redwood range has been shrinking for millennia.
It now appears certain, in the light of accumulated facts, that in the period of the world's history known as the Tertiary, great forests of redwood flourished in many parts of the world. In America, redwood fossils have been found in Texas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wyoming, Oregon, Washington, California, Canada, Greenland, Alaska, and St. Lawrence Island. The Florissant Petrified Forest of Colorado, the Calistoga Petrified Forest of California, and the Specimen Ridge Petrified Forest in Yellowstone National Park are among the better known.

The recent final decimation (98% of the giant trees are gone) is all logging.
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+++ The Sri Lanka Mega Drought Desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 02:01:49

Sri Lanka’s worst drought in 40 years leaves villagers hungry and struggling for work
‘There is no work. Everyone, big or small, has lost out to the drought.’

The worst affected areas are the North Western, North Central, Northern and South Eastern Provinces that rely heavily on agriculture. The UN Office in Colombo said that affected households were in some cases limiting their food intake, which was hampering people’s day-to-day lives.

Eating their seed
Gunathileka, who hails from the North Western Province, said his family was now eating some of the rice that he had put away to use as seed for the next growing season.....
https://scroll.in/article/853041/sri-la ... g-for-work
******************

GW @ 410 ppm CO2 what happens @ 500 ppm ?
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Re: +++ The Sri Lanka Mega Drought Desaster+++

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 04:39:04

DISASTER
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:05:41

M_B_S wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


Was copy paste ...

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... oms-large/

Of course, proof reading, with a "p" is impossible.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:31:22

pstarr wrote:The Redwood range has been shrinking for millennia.
The recent final decimation (98% of the giant trees are gone) is all logging.


Visiting the California State parks where they point out the NEW range of the Redwoods, which has NOTHING to do with where the trees are TODAY, but everything to do with where the trees will be TOMORROW. That is what is meant by RANGE!

Yes, it's hard to get a handle on CHANGE, especially rapid change. We might SEE trees, but they're really GONE. SEE what I mean??
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby aspera » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:48:31

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Plant a garden. Soon.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 10:44:53

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2017-11-14-hot-weather-and-winds-worsen-cape-town-drought/

SOUTH AFRICA
Hot weather and winds worsen Cape Town drought

14 November 2017 - 08:56
BY APHIWE DEKLERK

The City of Cape Town has attributed part of the drop in dam levels in the past week to hot weather and winds.

In their latest water update‚ the city said dam storage levels were currently at 36.8% but the last 10% is not usable.

“Our dam levels have declined by 1% over the past week. This could be attributed to the high winds and hot weather which contributed to evaporation‚” mayor Patricia de Lille said in a statement.

She said the city had managed to halve its water usage thanks to the efforts of 51% of the city’s water users.

“We will only get through this crisis together. To make this partnership work even more effectively‚ I appeal to all water users‚ especially the 49% who are not saving water yet‚ to join us all as we escalate efforts to beat this drought‚” De Lille said......
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SA Drought @ 410 ppm CO2 and 1850 ppb CH4

Its only getting worse..... world wide with droughts and floods
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Nov 2017, 04:29:31

Morocco is struggling with the second consecutive significant drought year...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42119365

Although the south is pretty arid, most of the time the Atlas (used to) pick up enough rainfall to keep the agriculture happy. Rainfall is pretty unreliable, it must be said, but still - these droughts are clearing increasing in frequency and are now becoming almost an annual problem.

See this document for more on Morocco's climate and drought problems:
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/c ... orocco.pdf

(thnx to av at asif for links and text)

Note that this fits in to the phenomenon that the Sahara is basically moving north into the once-milder regions along the coast of North Africa and on into southern Europe.
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Southwest Europe, Northwest Africa,,,,,

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 25 Nov 2017, 17:17:47

Yes indeedy,
people like the farmers I spoke are getting worried by the lack of rain, gave my brother in law a pump to irrigate the crops, this year grain, next year wacky tabacky....Kif on the Rif.
Bought a small gasoline 700 W generator for a 120 euro bargain at a local supermarket in Holland, now finding a way to get it on the farm near Chefchouen.

Anyway, thanks for the info D, paper on water issue Maroc.

Hey, even the area of the picos de Europa, bordering the atlantic, looked a bit dry last summer, called the green zone of Spain, very unusual.
Ran out of cash while moving back North with my family, had to stay a bit longer on the pretty coast, not a bummer with my moms car loaded with survival gear.......after Xmess a real drill with ex commando to Sweden, no camping gear or lighter, just your wits and warm clothes....bbbbbrrrrr, short daytime light at 60 degrees NL, meter of snow.

Asked mi mommy dearest for a 3 gran loan and got myself into:

https://www.camptoo.nl/camper/4187/Ivec ... -Buccaneer

I think a wise investment, way better than a pension plan 8)
Kevin, the one who built it, wanted to drive it to South Africa, it has rear drive dubbel air, 4 cyl 2800 cc diesel with turbo, no fancy electronics, direct injection like a truck. extra suspension/springs, solar pannels with large battery, extra 120 l watertank, 700 W amp and subwoofer to blast opponents ears.....
A fully functional babe layer.
Family getaway I mean.

The Buccaneer is back!
Yup, I am a pirate. My truck for bread is my flagship, 2016 DAF XF.
First American one were a 86 F 250 with a standard, 6 in line on gas, two years up to Alaska, down the Baja and a winter in Montreal/Detroit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buccaneer

A hundred years before the French Revolution, the buccaneer companies were run on lines in which liberty, equality and fraternity were the rule. In a buccaneer camp, the captain was elected and could be deposed by the votes of the crew. The crew, and not the captain, decided whether to attack a particular ship, or a fleet of ships. Spoils were evenly divided into shares; the captain received an agreed amount for the ship, plus a portion of the share of the prize money, usually five or six shares.[7]

Crews generally had no regular wages, being paid only from their shares of the plunder, a system called "no purchase, no pay" by Modyford or "no prey, no pay" by Exquemelin. There was a strong esprit among buccaneers. This, combined with overwhelming numbers, allowed them to win battles and raids. There was also, for some time, a social insurance system guaranteeing compensation for battle wounds at a worked-out scale.[8]

Buccaneers initially used small boats to attack Spanish galleons surreptitiously, often at night, and climb aboard before the alarm could be raised. Buccaneers were expert marksmen and would quickly kill the helmsman and any officers aboard. Buccaneers' reputation as cruel pirates grew to the point that, eventually, most victims would surrender, hoping they would not be killed.

When buccaneers raided towns, they did not sail into port and bombard the defenses, as naval forces typically did. Instead, they secretly beached their ships out of sight of their target, marched overland, and attacked the towns from the landward side, which was usually less fortified. Their raids relied mainly on surprise and speed.[9][better source needed] The sack of Campeche was considered the first such raid and many others that followed replicated the same techniques including the attack on Veracruz in 1683 and the raid on Cartagena later that same year.


Been thinking about the Ferrel cell, Hadley has grown stonger with abrupt CC, polar cell weakened but still working........are we seeing the death of Ferrel?
The turning into a two cell or even one cell system?
I know J.Francis is talking temp.gradient/jet stream weakening......
But does it all not lead to a very unstable, extreme, chaotic unusual weather system, climate that brings the worst you can imagine within our lifetime?

And we are not even in the real change yet, that will likely be when the ice on the pole is gone, within 5 years or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation

The Ferrel cell is driven by the Hadley and Polar cells. It has neither a strong source of heat nor a strong sink to drive convection. As a result, the weather within the Ferrel cell is highly variable and is influenced by changes to the Hadley and Polar cells. The base of the Ferrel cell is characterized by the movement of air masses, and the location of those air masses is influenced in part by the location of the jet stream, even though it flows near the tropopause. Overall, the movement of surface air is from the 30th latitude to the 60th. However, the upper flow of the Ferrel cell is weak and not well defined.

In contrast to the Hadley and Polar systems, the Ferrel system provides an example of a thermally indirect circulation. The Ferrel system acts as a heat pump with a coefficient of performance of 12.1, consuming kinetic energy at an approximate rate of 275 terawatts.[1]
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 30 Nov 2017, 22:18:35

Interesting points, wf.

Meanwhile:

La Niña means drought is now expanding in Texas, even though we're just three months after Hurricane Harvey's record-setting rainfall.
Yes, this will be Houston's rainiest year in history. Yes, they'll probably end the year in a drought.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 0090443783

(Thnks to sig at asif for this)

And:



Sahara ‘moving north’
BY CARRIE-MARIE BRATLEY, IN NEWS · 23-11-2017 14:04:00 ·
A leading national expert on climate change has warned that the Iberian Peninsula might soon be facing spells of droughts that could span up to eight years, as Portugal’s climate becomes increasingly like the arid climes of Northern Africa.

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/sah ... orth/43959

thanks to COBob at scribblers for this
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:02:16

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean causes drought in California

arctic-sea-ice-loss-california

Computer models show that the shrinkage of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean causes climate effects that include drought in California. Enhanced global warming at high latitudes causes the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice.

So next time you people in California are thinking about firing up your SUVs and going on a joy ride, blasting CO2 into the atmosphere behind you, consider instead taking a nice walk or a bicycle ride.

Remember---global warming isn't just about the saving the polar bears.....the environment you save may be your own.
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:18:01

Excuse me Plant. :x We invented bicycles and PC awareness. And besides . . . it is raining cats, dogs, mushrooms and Joy! here in Norcal.

Cheers! :mrgreen:
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 13:16:36

Apparently, CA can expect more and more severe droughts going forward as the Arctic sea ice continues to melt (it just hit it's lowest mark ever for this time of year):

Ivana Cvijanovic et al (2017), "Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall", Nature Communications 8, Article number: 1947, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4

Abstract: "From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts."

Extract: "The “low Antarctic ice” simulations show that the proposed mechanism can be triggered by sea-ice changes in either hemisphere. Since Antarctic sea-ice loss involves northward propagation in both teleconnection steps (i.e., Antarctic sea-ice affecting the tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the North Pacific) and no high northern latitude changes, it provides additional support for our conjecture that the sea-ice changes can influence North Pacific geopotential height through tropical convection changes. More generally, any high-latitude perturbation (northern or southern hemispheric warming or cooling) that impacts the position of the tropical Pacific ITCZ, will have an impact on California’s rainfall."

(But I'm sure none of this will ever touch pete's little eden...at least as long as the ganga supply lasts!! :) :) )
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 11 Jan 2018, 20:08:19

Cape Town, South Africa, Is Running Out of Water

Cape Town, home to more than 4 million, is in the midst of the worst drought to hit South Africa in more than 100 years.

City officials say they will "turn off the tap" in April when dam levels are expected to reach 13.5 percent of capacity.


The situation is dire. Dams supplying the city with usable water dropped this week to 29.7 percent, the city of Cape Town posted to Facebook on Wednesday. Only 19.7 percent of the water is usable. Several times a day, the city encourages residents via social media to conserve water.

Mayor De Lille says she hopes it won't come down to Day Zero, but the city is already planning for that eventuality. Should the city be forced to turn off the taps, 200 water stations guarded by police and the military will be set up to ration out roughly 6.6 gallons (25 liters) of water per day per resident.

Cape Town isn't the only city dealing with water issues in a warming world.

The World Wildlife Fund estimates two-thirds of the world may face water shortages by 2025 as droughts become more frequent because of global warming.


The World’s First Major City to Run Out of Water May Have Just Over Three Months Left

It’s the height of summer in Cape Town, and the southwesternmost region of South Africa is gripped by a catastrophic water shortage. Unless the city adopts widespread rationing, the government says, the taps “will be turned off” on April 22, 2018, because there will be no more water to deliver.
... “It’s not an impending crisis—we’re deep, deep, deep in crisis.”

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 Jan 2018, 09:15:57

Scribbler on how Iranian drought is increasing political instability (shades of Syria):

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/20/ ... stability/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 16:27:44

California is having a near-record low year for snow. So is a lot of the Western U.S.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status ... 2362753024

Length of present (nearly) unbroken #SoCal dry spell is remarkable. Los Angeles has only seen a single day of significant rainfall (>0.25 in.) since last Apr (2017), and only 2 days with precipitation above 0.5 inches since last Feb--nearly a year ago.#CAwx #LArain @NWSLosAngeles
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status ... 2260618243
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 02:54:20

DAY ZERO!

Cape Town’s impending Day Zero


Cape Town’s impending Day Zero is likely to have a severe knock-on effect across the entire national economy, widely affecting a number of sectors, and resulting in a possible credit rating downgrade for South Africa.

Speaking to the Citizen on Tuesday, economist Mike Schussler said that the water crisis is several times worse than load shedding, as not having access to water is relatively permanent compared to rolling blackouts.

This could lead to a number of businesses and industries looking at semigrating so that they can continue business operations in the country, he said.

Depending on how long the drought lasts, he believes that major industries such as IT, transport, agriculture as well as exports will all be significantly impacted as water scarcity limits businesses and causes Capetonians to look for greener pastures.

“We saw with the electricity crisis that South Africa missed out on a lot of growth. A water crisis to me is a few times worse. There’s no rolling blackouts with water. It’s permanent,” Schussler said....
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/wate ... ms-n841881

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