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THE 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 20:38:26

dolanbaker wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

According to Richard Heinberg in the movie Oil Smoke and Mirrors, capitalism will cease to exist after peak oil is reached because once oil production starts to decline, economic growth becomes impossible. And capitalism cannot function without growth. Without economic growth, capitalism will collapse. What will replace capitalism I don't know. But capitalism will cease to exist as a result of peak oil.

In it's current (or pre2008) form it can't survive, but it will evolve to exploit the changes to survive.
Don't write it off, the stakes are too high for the benefactors to let it go quietly.
I think that we're likely to find that the debt based monitory system will be replaced by a credit based system that can work in a zero growth scenario.

Instead of money being leant into existence, money being created when a government borrows from a bank to pay for services and repays with interest. The money instead is created by the government and spent into existence and taxed out of the system to preserve the value of the currency, such a system does not need growth to function.


But ultimately it will be spent on goods and services, and the more money there is the more of the latter needs to be created. An increase in goods and services requires more energy and material resources.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 14 Dec 2014, 23:55:12

dolanbaker wrote: I think that we're likely to find that the debt based monitory system will be replaced by a credit based system that can work in a zero growth scenario.


Debt based and credit based are the same thing. What are you talking about?

Instead of money being leant into existence, money being created when a government borrows from a bank to pay for services and repays with interest.


Where does the interest money come from? Taxes on the people? Is this what the Govt puts up as collateral for the loan?

The money instead is created by the government and spent into existence and taxed out of the system to preserve the value of the currency, such a system does not need growth to function.


Taxed out of the system? Care to elaborate?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 01:50:18

The government creates the money instead of the banks and they create a fixed amount based on population. If the money is "sloshing" one way then it is taxed out to stop excessive wealth accumulation.
With a finite amount of money(relative to population) the zero growth system is stable.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 13:06:12

MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 15:33:48

DesuMaiden wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
dolanbaker wrote: The world could easily operate in a similar fashion as today with half the oil that it does now, EU/Japanese style fuel efficient cars, car pooling more efficient logistics, cut out unnecessary travel. A 50% cut in consumption is not that difficult to achieve.


Nonsense, impossible to implement without a depression without end. The entire industrial/financial complex would unravel. Capitalism and fiat currencies have no plan B. There is only growth. Without growth, the debt cannot be serviced. Without new loans the money supply deflates.

Conservation is a self-imposed recession requiring reduced economic activity, massive job losses, loan defaults, etc, much like we witnessed in the 1930's.

That 50% cut in consumption is a lot of somebody's job.

Why the empty reply?
My point is that it takes almost the same man hours to produce a car that consumes 4litres/ 100km as it does one that uses 8l/100km so by building more economic cars you don't lose any jobs.

I could say the same for many other aspects of modern life, but it doesn't sound doomerish enough.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Mon 15 Dec 2014, 23:51:35

pstarr wrote:
careinke wrote:Why would a Permaculturist ever plant and raise corn like that?
Right. The permaculturalist would just call down a Diva who would flutter around on gossamer wings, sprinkle the ground with Stardust, and GMO-free corn kernals will spring unbiddened from the ground.

Otherwise we just wish a food forest into existence?


Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing, no pesticides, no soil erosion, etc, etc, etc. But even that would just be a stopgap/transition measure until my nut trees started producing. Then I don't need to plant at all, and get many more calories per square foot, a lot of oil, fire wood, building materials, and soil regeneration. Don't need grains at all.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Loki » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 00:18:13

careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 00:53:32

Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Loki » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 01:08:00

careinke wrote:
Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.

And fertilizing. Fish was a common fertilizer in Native American agriculture.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 01:52:34

Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:
Loki wrote:
careinke wrote:Or you could just play around with three sister variations. No weeding, no fertilizing,

LOL

OK, maybe I exaggerated a little on the no weeding part....but a LOT less.

And fertilizing. Fish was a common fertilizer in Native American agriculture.


I Fertigate now, and eventually it will be an automatic (no inputs from me) system. Still grains are only a transitional (Unless you want to grow them) crop, a holdover from the very thing that got us into this mess, agriculture. Lets face it, today's grains suck as nutritional food. Then there is the whole monoculture problem.

We worry about human pandemics due to overpopulation and superbugs created by overuse of medications. We should be very worried about that with our grain crops. Huge monocultured fields of grain is just a disaster waiting to happen. I'm sure a corn field would fit Monte's definition of overshoot (for the corn). Yet we keep rolling the dice.

I would personally like to see the population move towards a more varied sustainable diet with Nuts and other perennial crops providing the vast majority of our calories.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 16 Dec 2014, 03:20:15

Agree with all you say care, but I think even you slipped in a 'condition' accepting there would be a lot less people. IMHO sad but true, I agree with most of the ideas in your 'plan' to save the world, and think it's a shame that it seems to have some of my friends 'against' each other. Stepping back I think you're all talking about very similar opinions with definitions being the moot point.

On the one hand Monte seems to think us Permies are talking about saving the world 'as it is', and sees that as simply perpetuating the overshoot leading to an even more severe correction.

On the other hand his points can seem callous and lacking in any compassion, but he does post the facts as he sees them.

In the real world I agree with both camps, and see Permaculture as part of a transition plan to a 'potential' future albeit in a much smaller World. There are many other 'elements' to transition which can be sometimes seen as part of permaculture, but also lie firmly in the political arena. An acceptance that 'selfish' is not necessarily 'natural', and that working together is more important than competing all the time is one thing that you learn from Permaculture once you get going. IMHO this leads to the inevitable conclusion that a communal approach is the only way forward.

Monte has often said PO manifests itself as an economic crisis which is a view that I share. I've regularly stated that the main difference of opinion between cornies and doomers is cornies don't join the dots between physical resources and financial ones. My fear is that as history shows War tends to be the outcome and Permaculture doesn't really stop that!
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby careinke » Thu 18 Dec 2014, 01:35:13

Quinny,

I think realistically, we will have at least a partial die off, because basically most of the world is ignorant. MY thome on saving the world through Permaculture is just an academic exercise where I feel I could design a system that makes the transition a lot easier, without a Die Off. The population would eventually decline through voluntary population control.

I haven't addressed population yet, I should probably add it to year two. The third ethic in Permaculture was originally:
SETTING LIMITS TO POPULATION AND CONSUMPTION: By governing our own needs , we can set resources aside to further the above principles (meaning the first two ethics, care of the Earth, and care of people)


I'm not sure, but I suspect it was changed to, Return the Surplus to the first two ethics, because the original third ethic was not PC.

As for as Monte, I have a LOT of respect and have learned much from him. I hope he does not consider me an enemy because we disagree on some points of the severity of future events. Although I think he smart enough to tone down his disparaging comments and still get his point across. But I think it is just his inner Shock Jock. 8)

I have do have hope. My two sons, nieces, nephews, and other friends have "Awakened" to the problems, and have started to take responsibility for themselves. They have come to me for advice at first, and are now branching out into things I have not done, like aquaponics, urban farming, rabbits,etc. Remarkably it is contagious, their friends see what they have done, and start their own projects. Food is traded, when its time to slaughter turkeys, everyone volunteers to help. They also support CSA's and are starting to eat less crap sold in the supermarket.

Permaculture is not a solo activity. What I am seeing is more and more people awakening. Will it be enough? Who knows? But the more of them I can get around me, the more secure I feel. A lot of governments are also taking Permaculture very seriously.

As far as preventing war, that was my old job. I can't personally influence that, so I don't worry about it, other than standard preps I have anyway. Sort of the same way I feel about meteor strikes, massive volcanoes and other disasters beyond my control.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 09 Apr 2015, 19:43:32

Very simply, when oil got to $120 a barrel it cut into real productivity, and forced the world’s most developed economies to shrink. At $147, it wreaked serious damage. ... the new normal will be cycles of bumping our heads against the supply ceiling, falling dazed to the floor, rising back to our knees, then finally standing, only to bump our heads against the ceiling once more. ... The true import of peak oil, therefore, may not be sustained high prices, but economic shrinkage.


8. Scaling down to fit substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
Just commenting on this long post directed at the effects of peak oil as described above as well as substituting for oil. Number 8 may miss the part about not just considerable time but with considerable economic pain. Well we are now 2015. So far the price of oil is reasonable. No major pain. I inquire then when abouts do folks think this pain will finally arrive in full force? Also, will we really be able to substitute for oil realistically speaking or is this just wishful thinking at this juncture?
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 09 Apr 2015, 20:00:54

5 years ago I thought we'd have Mad Max conditions by now and that there was no use even thinking about my daughter's college education. Now she's almost 15 and gas is pretty cheap and I've got the best paying coder job of my life. I really don't see this changing overnight. I think it's more than likely that my daughter will manage to live out the rest of her childhood and college years before her traditional american dreams of upward mobility are prosperity are blunted. So in other words, probably another 5 years on this fracking kick before we have any sort of oil shock again.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Grifter » Sat 29 Aug 2015, 23:47:01

onlooker wrote:
8. Scaling down to fit substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
Just commenting on this long post directed at the effects of peak oil as described above as well as substituting for oil. Number 8 may miss the part about not just considerable time but with considerable economic pain. Well we are now 2015. So far the price of oil is reasonable. No major pain. I inquire then when abouts do folks think this pain will finally arrive in full force? Also, will we really be able to substitute for oil realistically speaking or is this just wishful thinking at this juncture?


If you lived in Syria, Afganistan, or most places in the middle east, you'd say the pain was in full force.......or a helluva lot of other places too.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 04:49:30

Pops wrote:Here are 10 facts about Peak Oil:

    Peak Oil
    1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction of which typically follows a bell-shaped curve, with maximum flow near the middle followed by terminal decline. The "peak" is the point in time of highest flow and supply availability, with shrinking supplies thereafter. "Peak Oil" does not mean no oil, it means less oil.

    Discoveries
    2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.

    Exploration Costs
    3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last.

    Energy Return On Energy Invested
    4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.

    Export Land Model
    5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.

    The Consequences of Cheap and Expensive Oil
    6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,

    7. Increasing oil prices can decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase and/or

    8. Increasing oil prices can reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.

    Scaling Time
    9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.

    Unreliable Information
    10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.

If you have a fact you think is more basic or an argument with one of these feel free to post.
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10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 07:29:19

Thanks for bringing us back to basics.
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