[M_B_S]

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/5611/Reduce ... o-Firewood

Reduced Gas in Ukraine Leaves Chilly Locals Turning to Firewood

“We’re talking about a reduced gas supply, rather than termination,” said Ivan Kapitonov, a senior fellow at the Institute of Economics, Associate Professor. “It can be assumed that the pipes are not frozen as the risk of the pipes bursting would risk multibillion-dollar losses”.

"Clearly, these measures are due to lack of gas, and the debtors in this situation just happened to be non-payers. In the past, the calculation was carefully planned, while today it seems that the truth is a struggle to keep enough gas to last to the end of the winter. That severe frosts would limit gas supplies was already calculated in early autumn,” Kapitonov said.

To fight the cold, Ukrainians are having to turn to firewood, choosing this over the alternative- renewing deals with Russian giant "Gazprom". Coal is not an option- buying supplies from Donbas is impossible, and attempts so far to find an alternative supplier at a reasonable price have failed.

Dmitry Marunich, director of the Institute of Energy Research, in an interview with a Ukrainian TV channel, said that in the cold period after new year, Ukraine has managed to avoid rolling blackouts only because of its coal reserves.

"If the frosts repeat at a temperature below -10 -15 degrees, problems can be expected again in the third week of January. And these problems are likely to affect gas transit to Europe, because, as it has been said, there is a minimum necessary amount of gas in the pipes to fulfill needs," Marunich warned.
***********************


Dejavu ......

PEAK GAS

M_B_S

[Tanada]

Clearly I am losing something in the translation to English. In one place it says people have turned to wood because coal is unavailable and in another place it says the utilities have not been able to buy coal to replace the coal they had stockpiled that they burned when the gas supplies got tight.

Which is it, is gas unavailable because the Ukrainians are not paying there bills or is coal the best choice but still costs more than the Ukrainians are willing to pay? If you are importing fuel for your system you want the cheapest option, but nobody is going to supply you at a loss for very long.

[dissident]

Just need to find a way to blame this all on Putin and Russia, then everything will become crystal clear.

[dissident]

Banderastan (formerly known as Ukraine) was claiming that it was 100% independent of Russian gas. It was buying what it needed from Poland and Slovakia. Russia has nothing to do with Banderastan's supply problems.

[Tuike]

I found the weather map from 2012 article.
http://naturealerte.blogspot.fi/2012/12 ... ccord.html

[M_B_S]

I found the weather map from 2012 article.
http://naturealerte.blogspot.fi/2012/12 ... ccord.html

Good Tuike

And now we proof if we have learned something or not?

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-c ... crisis.pdf

Maybe not......

[ROCKMAN]

And as I pointed out long ago I keep wondering why Russia doesn't change it's sales contract with the EU. When I sell NG to an end user I get paid based upon the meter on my lease. If that volume doesn't match what the buyer reads on his meter that's an issue for the buyer and the pipeline company transporting the NG to the end user.

But in the Russia/EU trade the sale is based upon what goes thru the EU meters after being transported thru Ukrainian pipelines. In the past the Ukraine has admitted stealing Russian NG in transport. And thus the monitary disputes. So the same simple solution: the EU pays Russia for the volume recorded on Russian meters at the Ukraine border. Then the EU pays the Ukraine the negotiated transport tariff. And any "shrinkage" while going thru the Ukrainian pipeline system is a matter between the Ukrainians and the European buyers.

[M_B_S]

I think Rockman you did not catch my point of view.

The point is that Russia could not deliver enough gas to all customers when home demand is very very high.

So they have to blame somebody..... here Ukraine.

You can print money $/€(EZB WB ) but you cannot print CH4

M_B_S

[dissident]

People are still talking as if Russia supplies Banderastan with gas. According to Banderastan it does not. But I can see the anti-Russian hate propaganda at play again when poor little Bandera-tards start siphoning Russian gas in transit to the EU.

In the immortal words of Victoria Neuland: F*ck the EU!

[ROCKMAN]

M - Don't think I was responding to anything you posted. And what I posted was a fact anyway about how US producers sell NG. So again: this would be a away of Russia making the Ukraine's problems regarding the EU imports of NG an EU problem and not Russia's.

But: "The point is that Russia could not deliver enough gas to all customers when home demand is very very high." Not saying you're wrong but can't find support for that statement. I can find numerous stories about fears of Russia VOLUNTARIALLY cutting delivery but not due to caoacity limitations. Did find support that's there excess capacity IN GENERAL and more on the way:

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natur ... y-26567039

Platts
* Pipeline exports boosted by Ukraine transit hike
* German receipts steady via Nord Stream, Yamal
* Recent hub rise boosts oil-indexed competitiveness

The amount of natural gas exported from Russia via the Nord Steam, Yamal, and Brotherhood pipelines combined rose to a record high Monday as gas transit via Ukraine increased, data from Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy showed Tuesday. Total Russian pipeline gas exports via Nord Stream, Yamal, and Brotherhood hit 360 million cu m Monday, above the previous record high of 357 million cu m from early September and over 15% higher than the 313 million cu m from October 10, 2015. The record daily high has been achieved by an increase in Russian gas transit via the Brotherhood pipeline, taking Russian gas to the Slovakian border via Ukraine, which increased to 153 million cu m on Monday.
Article Continues below...

And from
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natur ... n-26631430

Russia has said it expects to export in 2017 similar volumes to Europe as in 2016, while the European Commission decision in October to allow Gazprom more access to the OPAL gas link in Germany could mean increased flows of Russian gas. It is not yet clear whether Gazprom will choose to divert flows to Nord Stream and OPAL away from the Ukrainian route, or use the extra OPAL capacity to flow more gas. Whichever way it falls, the key is that OPAL is a cheaper option for Gazprom than Ukraine. Tensions between Moscow and Kiev remain heightened, with the anticipated result of the multiple arbitration cases between Gazprom and Naftogaz in March an added pressure.

[M_B_S]

@ Rockman

http://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/ ... s-dilemma/

Third, when winters are particularly cold, Russia curbs what it exports (mainly to Europe) to keep more supplies at home. This happened this past winter and shortages of up to 30% were seen in Austria, Romania, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, all of which also experienced an extraordinarily cold winter. Although this practice might keep the population at home warm, it meant that Gazprom lost a great deal of money it could have made if more supplies had gone to Europe. April 2012

Now 2017 its a Dejavu....

M_B_S

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks M...that's what I couldn't find. Here's what he/she dug up:

"Third, when winters are particularly cold, Russia curbs what it exports (mainly to Europe) to keep more supplies at home. This happened this past winter and shortages of up to 30% were seen in Austria, Romania, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, all of which also experienced an extraordinarily cold winter."

The Russians must be expecting to develop a lot more NG reserves given how much effort they are putting into expanding the NG export infrastructure.

[Tanada]

Thanks M...that's what I couldn't find. Here's what he/she dug up:

"Third, when winters are particularly cold, Russia curbs what it exports (mainly to Europe) to keep more supplies at home. This happened this past winter and shortages of up to 30% were seen in Austria, Romania, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, all of which also experienced an extraordinarily cold winter."

The Russians must be expecting to develop a lot more NG reserves given how much effort they are putting into expanding the NG export infrastructure.

If they ever get around to putting that Caspian pipeline in to connect with the Iranian gas system the supply should be pretty good for 20 years or so.

[M_B_S]

20-30 days this cold and Europes big gas storages are going critical.

https://agsi.gie.eu/#/

More:

LNG supply crisis in France

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/energy ... upply.html

PARIS: French gas grid operator GRTgaz said on Friday that low liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to the Fos-sur-Mer terminal in the south of the country had led to a tight supply situation and heavy withdrawals from saline storages to meet winter demand.

The situation, which began in November, has led to a spike in the gas price in France's southern hub, which touched its highest level since December 2013 at 40 euros ($42.57) per megawatt-hour this week, widening the spread with prices in the north to 21.35 euros.

When asked why deliveries were low a GRTgaz spokesman declined to comment. A trader said the main reason for fewer deliveries to the Fos terminal was higher Asian prices pulling supplies out of Europe, and also high Turkish demand which was draining off European supply.

"The Turks have ramped up imports to deal with high demand due to freezing weather," the trader said. GRTgaz said the latest weather forecast for France, which shows a prolonged cold spell next week with temperatures near record lows below seasonal levels, could worsen the situation.

It said the saline storages (salt caverns) are at their lowest level for this period of the year compared with the last five winters.

"With no LNG arrivals at Fos-sur-Mer in the short term, withdrawal from saline storages remain nevertheless the only solution to meet the immediate needs," GRTgaz said.

GRTgaz urged market players to respect the recommended minimum daily gas withdrawal limit so as to have enough supply until the end of winter.
*****************


M_B_S

[dissident]

Thanks M...that's what I couldn't find. Here's what he/she dug up:

"Third, when winters are particularly cold, Russia curbs what it exports (mainly to Europe) to keep more supplies at home. This happened this past winter and shortages of up to 30% were seen in Austria, Romania, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, all of which also experienced an extraordinarily cold winter."

The Russians must be expecting to develop a lot more NG reserves given how much effort they are putting into expanding the NG export infrastructure.

If they ever get around to putting that Caspian pipeline in to connect with the Iranian gas system the supply should be pretty good for 20 years or so.

As with Nabucco it is always talk, talk, talk. Get it built already and stop the insane hate projection onto Russia. F*cking retards. Russia has always charged less than Norway for its gas to the EU. So stupid EU hater f*cks don't even have that to base their tantrums on.

[ROCKMAN]

" Russia has always charged less than Norway for its gas to the EU." Which reminds me of a phrase about Norwegians I first heard 40 years ago. A rude nickname which doesn't mean it's not valid: Blue-eyed Arabs.

[M_B_S]

Weather luck for Europe

Massiv Warming in EU ahead => Monday warm air is flooding Europe thanks to a US Mega Storm



M_B_S

[evilgenius]

I wonder if the real lesson in this is sort of the boy who cried wolf scenario. When Russian natural gas does peak, for whatever reason, you won't know it because it will always come in a time when politics clouds everything.

[AdamB]

Russia is the world’s largest producer of crude oil (including lease condensate) and the second-largest producer of dry natural gas. Russia also produces significant amounts of coal. Russia’s economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and natural gas revenues account for more than one-third of the federal budget revenues. Russia is a major producer and exporter of oil and natural gas. Russia’s economic growth is driven by energy exports, given its high oil and natural gas production. Oil and natural gas revenues accounted for 36% of Russia’s federal budget revenues in 2016.[1] Map of Russia Source: CIA, World Factbook Russia was the world’s largest producer of crude oil including lease condensate and the third-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids (after Saudi Arabia and the United States) in 2016, with average liquids production of 11.2 million barrels per day (b/d). Russia wa

Russia Oil Market Overview

[AdamB]

Can Europe, including the Eastern part, continue to profit from cheap Russian gas without succumbing to Russian energy dominance? According to a new paper from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), the EU should not shy away from “countervailing measures”. But these should preferably take the form of a “grand bargain” with Russia rather than a confrontation. As Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe keep rising – its market share, now at 33%, could rise to over 40% by 2035 – and relations with Russia seem to keep getting worse, the question of how the EU should deal with its energy dependence on Russia is becoming ever more urgent. Confrontation is one option. Is it wise – or even effective? The Atlantic Council – a bipartisan U.S. organisation that promotes U.S.-European relations, and has no love for Russia – has just analysed the effect of the U.S. and E.U.

A Grand Bargain With Gazprom?