[dissident]

If you want quantification of impacts then you need to resort to models. But as we have seen with the ice melt the models are behind the curve. So treat their "predictions" as lower bounds to the coming impact.

We have already had good studies on drought and agricultural impacts done on the basis of previous IPCC round model results (not the current batch):

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/ ... e1633.html

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers ... ES2010.pdf

We can move this discussion toward two pertinent questions

1) Will there ever be unequivocal data that will drive global consensus around acknowledging climate change?

2) We we make any meaningful efforts to mitigate before consequences force us to our knees?

This is where the mainstream media comes in. It determines the consensus in society and thus shapes policy. People try to pin the blame on scientists for allegedly "not spreading their message effectively". I say BS. Their message is being sabotaged by paid shills and misinformation sponsored by Exxon, the Koch brothers and assorted other special interests who think that climate change is some sort of commie hoax to deny them their filthy lucre. Just because they are rich does not make these clowns intelligent.

In many ways the damage is irreparable. Climate science has been politicized and a huge chunk of the population thinks their worthless opinion is precious on this topic. It is just another political platform to be derided and rejected. Not too many people run around claiming that gravity is a hoax. But that is the f*cktard level of discourse on climate change.

I think there will be lots of action but at least a couple of decades too late. When the signs are all irrefutable that even denier drones shut their imbecilic traps then it is already too late. The action must happen when the signs are still subtle. This is an ironic aspect of this problem, that the massive, high inertia atmosphere-ocean system gives off soft and barely perceptible initial signals of an impending crash that will obliterate all before it. Humans are not adapted for processing such signals. But we are past this stage already and I would say that there are some clear signs of what is coming already. But that requires objectivity to perceive which the current corrupted public awareness does not have. It is still easy to filter out these signs based on political convictions.

[Ibon]

By the way, if 99.9999999997% of the people on Earth don't believe or even think about AGW, I'd say they are part of MY majority, not yours as an AGW believer.

I have to agree with KJ on this although I may argue a bit with the percentage. Why do we argue about the accuracy of models when the majority do not care one way or another.

Where I would dispute KJ's point though is that 95% of these 99.9% that KJ says are on his side are really not on anyones side. These are the masses that go where our leaders lead them. So you cant count them really. If we had enlightened leadership the masses would be obedient as they always are. Those 95% today are obedient to the consumption culture's messages.

But your point is well taken. Change or mitigation before consequences is hopeless which is why I am ambiguous about data.... I want real game changing consequences as I recognize them as the only force that will move the hive mind toward meaningful cultural adaptation.

This will take leadership among those with authority. Without consequences they remain powerless though against the 99.9% as you pointed out.

[KaiserJeep]

Edit, reply to dissident: Well, I've never been one to see conspiracies everywhere. I think people just don't give a sheet about AGW, or FF exhaustion.

Edit to Ibon: 99% of the world population - at least - will never follow a "leader" either. For them and their primate reality, the "leader" is somebody living within shouting distance, related to them by blood or marriage. We are all apes.

[Ibon]

I think there will be lots of action but at least a couple of decades too late. When the signs are all irrefutable that even denier drones shut their imbecilic traps then it is already too late. The action must happen when the signs are still subtle. This is an ironic aspect of this problem, that the massive, high inertia atmosphere-ocean system gives off soft and barely perceptible initial signals of an impending crash that will obliterate all before it. Humans are not adapted for processing such signals. But we are past this stage already and I would say that there are some clear signs of what is coming already. But that requires objectivity to perceive which the current corrupted public awareness does not have. It is still easy to filter out these signs based on political convictions.

40 years ago I had very astute professors when studying environmental issues that made this exact same point. You stated this very very well actually. I compliment you.

I actually have recognized some of the darkest doomer sentiment in the scientific community comes from what you wrote here. It draws very bleak conclusions especially since these wise words you shared were discussed 40 years ago already...... Back then it was still in the future "we have to act now before we drive changes to disruptive levels that take us beyond the ability to adapt"

This comes to the heart of my own personal conclusion that consequences are the catalyst of cultural adaptation, not more climate science, not more education, not more environmental or social justice, not more activism on any front.

The corporations and media that keep the message of the establishment resilient and vibrant are not going to change their dominant position without consequences.

It also explains why I embrace the consequences of climate change as the solutions out of the impasse.

[Ibon]

Edit to Ibon: 99% of the world population - at least - will never follow a "leader" either. For them and their primate reality, the "leader" is somebody living within shouting distance, related to them by blood or marriage. We are all apes.

The evidence is against you here. All cultures, religions, races, ethnic groups, nation states and economic and political systems have fallen in line with consumption culture with very little resistance and very few exceptions. We were not born to go to Walmart. This is not instinctual. We were lead there. Make no mistake about that.

Our conservative tendency to defer to the group, part of our primate evolution, makes us predisposed to aligning with the consensus of the hive mind. That consensus can be molded by our leaders. For the libertarian this sounds like the nightmare of social engineering. Be that as it may it is a powerful force derived from our evolution as social organisms and can be harnessed with enlightenment to one day enable us to self regulate.... theoretically speaking of course.

[KaiserJeep]

I am bombarded by commercials, I spend very little, I have even had to re-activate credit cards that are disused for 12+ months. I drive around a 13 year old Jeep because I like it and it still runs - in fact, has never not run. I think consumerism is a phase of life for the young. I am not looking forward to a Costco visit this PM, it is the local big box store. But the wife refuses to go alone anymore, so I will share her misery.

Damn, I really wish I had somebody to vote FOR, I just got my absentee ballot, I'll do it this week. But for some decades, I haven't had a leader, just people I tolerate and sometimes cooperate with.

[Ibon]

I am bombarded by commercials, I spend very little, I have even had to re-activate credit cards that are disused for 12+ months. I drive around a 13 year old Jeep because I like it and it still runs - in fact, has never not run. I think consumerism is a phase of life for the young. I am not looking forward to a Costco visit this PM, it is the local big box store. But the wife refuses to go alone anymore, so I will share her misery.

Damn, I really wish I had somebody to vote FOR, I just got my absentee ballot, I'll do it this week. But for some decades, I haven't had a leader, just people I tolerate and sometimes cooperate with.

Let's take a moment and show unity with KJ's post. I think without exception all the members here at PO.com share this sentiment.

I mention this because as often as we spar with each other with our cyber wieners we do also share some underlying similar sentiments.

[Hawkcreek]

I am bombarded by commercials, I spend very little, I have even had to re-activate credit cards that are disused for 12+ months. I drive around a 13 year old Jeep because I like it and it still runs - in fact, has never not run. I think consumerism is a phase of life for the young. I am not looking forward to a Costco visit this PM, it is the local big box store. But the wife refuses to go alone anymore, so I will share her misery.

Damn, I really wish I had somebody to vote FOR, I just got my absentee ballot, I'll do it this week. But for some decades, I haven't had a leader, just people I tolerate and sometimes cooperate with.

Let's take a moment and show unity with KJ's post. I think without exception all the members here at PO.com share this sentiment.

I mention this because as often as we spar with each other with our cyber wieners we do also share some underlying similar sentiments.

I share KJ's sentiment, also. And it is a damned shame that we have fallen so low that we only have perverts and bigoted elites (I know, you can't tell which is which) on our national ballots. Just hold your nose when you push the button.
I just cleaned the coffee off my keyboard, so please don't use any more phrases like " spar with each other with our cyber wieners", again.

[Cid_Yama]

Defering to the group is not evolutionary, it is socialized as children and indicative of a weak personality in an adult.

I have NEVER deferred to the group. But that's probably because my cyber wiener is bigger than yours. Let the other guy do the deferring.

[vtsnowedin]

I am bombarded by commercials, I spend very little, I have even had to re-activate credit cards that are disused for 12+ months. I drive around a 13 year old Jeep because I like it and it still runs - in fact, has never not run. I think consumerism is a phase of life for the young. I am not looking forward to a Costco visit this PM, it is the local big box store. But the wife refuses to go alone anymore, so I will share her misery.

Damn, I really wish I had somebody to vote FOR, I just got my absentee ballot, I'll do it this week. But for some decades, I haven't had a leader, just people I tolerate and sometimes cooperate with.

Let's take a moment and show unity with KJ's post. I think without exception all the members here at PO.com share this sentiment.

I mention this because as often as we spar with each other with our cyber wieners we do also share some underlying similar sentiments.

Yes I quite agree.

[dohboi]

Ib wrote: "We do not have unequivocal data as to the severity of the impacts"

We will only have such absolutely unequivocal data long after the catastrophically severe impacts have already devastated the planet.

So then you will finally be satisfied that the data was completely and indubitably unequivocal perhaps???

[dohboi]

Ib wrote:

" Will there ever be unequivocal data that will drive global consensus around acknowledging climate change?"

You seem to drift into some kind of delusion here, forgetting about the influence of FF interests on politics and media...But dis seemed to help bring you back a bit into reality, thank goodness.

"We were not born to go to Walmart. This is not instinctual. We were lead there. Make no mistake about that."

Nicely put.

I share KJ's despair at being stuck in a consumerist culture we despise.

But I must part ways with him when he dangerously denies basic reality.

At every turn he changes the subject (constantly harping on 'computer models') when it is pointed out that the greenhouse-gas nature of CO2 was proven exactly 120 years ago by Arrhenius, without the aid of any models or even computers. His formula and some very basic facts and a smidgen of intellectual honesty are all that is needed to accept the overwhelming evidence of AGW.

That he refuses to acknowledge this makes me conclude that he is not being completely honest with us, and maybe not with himself. Perhaps this is some kind of emotional disability to stair hard truths in the face...I don't know. But really, there's not more to say to him on the subject till he gets over that emotional/psychological hurdle.

[KaiserJeep]

Sometimes doughboy, it's tough to tell where your head is at. I finally appear to have communicated to some PO.com members that the state of the art in computer simulation - hardware and software both - are inadequate to model global climate.

Now, are you disputing this, or are you saying we have to stop burning FF's before the data is in or a valid model exists, because the downside is that we reach the Climatic optimum sooner, the sea levels increase, the ice caps shrink, etc. etc.?

Because the stakes are so very high here. Ceasing to burn petroleum fuels for agriculture and food transport is gonna cause at least 4 billion humans to starve, although some members are arguing that this figure is 6+ billion dead.

So what is your position here, and please spell it out.

[dohboi]

AND....true to form...he is still dancing the same old jig...

Refusing to acknowledge that GW was proven long, long before his precious computers and models were ever dreamed of.

All you need is very basic physics and very obvious facts to see that AGW is an indisputable reality.

But KJ, poor benighted beast that he is, is clearly incapable of wrapping his poor, warped little mind around these blindingly obvious facts.

Sad, really.

Quite sad indeed.

(And again he is pulling uncited figures out of his nether regions with no justification for them. More very pathetic sadness...)

[Ibon]

But KJ, poor benighted beast that he is, is clearly incapable of wrapping his poor, warped little mind around these blindingly obvious facts.

Sad, really.

Quite sad indeed.

(And again he is pulling uncited figures out of his nether regions with no justification for them. More very pathetic sadness...)

What is it about KJ that makes you so uncivil anyway? We were on a bit of a roll of acknowledging our commonality and here you come with all these insulting comments. Why does he give you such a charge?

[jedrider]

I hate shopping, too, but you have to do it sometimes because we don't make our own clothing (not anymore, at least). I wound up in a Macy's (because the Sears has shuttered it's doors) late at night (when I can easily find parking) and the new Winter merchandise is being wheeled into the aisles (because most shoppers have gone home already). Surrounded by so much new merchandise, you realize that AGW doesn't matter: There is nothing short of catastrophe that will stop this consumer culture.

[Cid_Yama]

I know you had a delusional moment where you thought you were conducting a Kumbaya circle with us all holding hands in unity wit KJ, but that was just in your head.

No one but another denier or lukewarmer like yourself could feel commonality or unity with a denier. The closest I can get is disgust.

[Ibon]

I know you had a delusional moment where you thought you were conducting a Kumbaya circle with us all holding hands in unity wit KJ, but that was just in your head.

You want respect, you give respect. It's that simple.

[Cid_Yama]

You can keep your respect, I'll keep my integrity.

[Ibon]

Pay attention Onlooker, this little interchange with Cid is informative......