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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 21:45:24

The drought conditions of the Amazon rain forest cannot but have dire consequences for the Earth's climate. My goodness this plethora of environmental instability is distressing to me and I do not even have kids. What have we done to our planet!
http://www.weather.com/news/news/brazil ... azon-river
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby RaniDay » Sun 15 Nov 2015, 10:50:56

Brazil is a train wreck... It keeps going long after it begins, it destroys everything in its path, there is no way to stop it.

I have teenagers, they don't like to hear about the Brazil crisis, it's very depressing to know that a country like Brazil was only superficially functional.

They do enjoy my rants about the weather channel dissembling :)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 15 Nov 2015, 16:48:47

Global Warming Could Reduce Snowpack, Cutting Off Major Water Supplies Across The Planet
The gradual melting of winter snow helps deliver water to both farmland and cities, but new research suggests declines in snowpacks will severely deplete water supply to many regions of the globe.

A team of scientists looked at snow-dependent drainage basins in the northern hemisphere, which currently provide water to over two billion people, the Earth Institute at Columbia University reported. Snowpack water is an important resource for people across American West, southern Europe, the Mideast and central Asia. Water from snowpacks is especially relied on in mountainous regions, where the snowmelt slowly runs down the mountain during the growing seasons. Global warming appears to be disrupting this process, causing more winter precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow, washing away immediately.

"Snow is important because it forms its own reservoir. But the consequences of reduced snowpack are not the same for all places--it is also a function of where and when people demand water," said lead author Justin Mankin, a postdoctoral fellow at Columbia University's Earth Institute based jointly at the institute's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and its affiliated NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Water managers in a lot of places may need to prepare for a world where the snow reservoir no longer exists."

As the world has been warming, once-permanent snowfields have been vanishing in the Rocky Mountains from Colorado to northern Montana and even the Himalayas. Snowpack in California has reached its lowest point in about 500 years as a result of the devastating drought.

To make their findings, the researchers looked at 421 drainage basins spanning the northern hemisphere and combined this data with multiple climate models. The team identified 97 basins serving about two billion people that rely on snowmelt and have at least a two-thirds chance of declines. The most sensitive and heavily relied on basins were found to exist in: northern and central California, which is a major provider of U.S. produce; the basins of the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers, which provide for the American west and Mexico; the Atlas basin of Morocco; the Ebro-Duero basin, which provides water for Portugal, Spain, and France; and a series of basins across Italy and Turkey.

The researchers noted across most of North America, northern Europe, Russia, China and southeast Asia, rainfall is expected to continue to meet human demands for the foreseeable future, but reduced snowpacks could lead to forest fires and loss of valuable ecosystems including bird nesting habitats. Accelerated melting of glaciers in the Himalayas could also cause increases in water supplies to regions such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

"Managers need to be prepared for the possibility of multi-decadal decreases in snow water supply," Mankin said. "But at the same time, they could have large multi-decadal increases. Both of those outcomes are entirely consistent with a world with global warming."
(entire article quoted)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 01 Dec 2015, 12:32:49

Grim reality sets in for Ukraine wheat crop

Ukraine’s 2016 wheat crop is now sailing into uncharted waters given both the significantly missed planting target and a record percentage of crops in poor condition.

Ukraine, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, has faced one of the most challenging winter planting campaigns this year than ever before in the wake of a historic drought that set in during late summer.

As a result, planting progress and plant emergence has been considerably behind normal pace all along, and crop health has suffered immensely.

The outlook was rather gloomy as of early November, but hope still remained that Ukrainian farmers could boost winter wheat area throughout the month with help from favorable weather, which would also presumably help improve overall plant conditions.

But despite the seemingly supportive weather during November, crop conditions worsened throughout the month. Planting progressed in the meantime, though not significantly, but now the planting window has more or less closed.

This all but confirms the significant area reduction for the 2016 wheat harvest. Even with optimistic spring wheat area forecasts, the 10 percent cut in planned winter wheat area will likely lead to the smallest wheat harvest since 2012 and a consequential slash in exports.

... Loss of area combined with the recent conditions has prompted Ukrainian agency UkrAgroConsult to lower its 2016/17 production forecast to 17.8 million tons, down nearly one-third from last year.

On Nov. 16, a representative from Ukraine’s agriculture ministry suggested that 2016/17 wheat exports could fall to 3.5 million tons, which would represent a drastic decline of 13 million tons from the planned export volume for 2015/16. This would drop Ukraine from the sixth-largest wheat exporting nation to the eighth largest.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 01 Dec 2015, 12:53:52

vox_mundi wrote:Grim reality sets in for Ukraine wheat crop

Ukraine’s 2016 wheat crop is now sailing into uncharted waters given both the significantly missed planting target and a record percentage of crops in poor condition.

Ukraine, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, has faced one of the most challenging winter planting campaigns this year than ever before in the wake of a historic drought that set in during late summer.

As a result, planting progress and plant emergence has been considerably behind normal pace all along, and crop health has suffered immensely.

The outlook was rather gloomy as of early November, but hope still remained that Ukrainian farmers could boost winter wheat area throughout the month with help from favorable weather, which would also presumably help improve overall plant conditions.

But despite the seemingly supportive weather during November, crop conditions worsened throughout the month. Planting progressed in the meantime, though not significantly, but now the planting window has more or less closed.

This all but confirms the significant area reduction for the 2016 wheat harvest. Even with optimistic spring wheat area forecasts, the 10 percent cut in planned winter wheat area will likely lead to the smallest wheat harvest since 2012 and a consequential slash in exports.

... Loss of area combined with the recent conditions has prompted Ukrainian agency UkrAgroConsult to lower its 2016/17 production forecast to 17.8 million tons, down nearly one-third from last year.

On Nov. 16, a representative from Ukraine’s agriculture ministry suggested that 2016/17 wheat exports could fall to 3.5 million tons, which would represent a drastic decline of 13 million tons from the planned export volume for 2015/16. This would drop Ukraine from the sixth-largest wheat exporting nation to the eighth largest.


Not to drag the thread off topic, however, when Ukraine can't export much and the USA crop is fairly meager as well the world looks to ...Russia! Mr. Putin should be dancing with glee knowing he will be able to export even more wheat at better prices next year. So far sanctions have been a massive blessing for Russia, they have moved the Ruble to floating status and are quite busy upgrading internal production of raw materials and finished products that were cut off by the 'sanctions'
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JV153 » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 02:37:24

Here's a better look at the deforestation in Brazil.. and the United States.
http://apps.npr.org/lookatthis/posts/brazil/

Not surprising to this poster.. incidentally we're seeing really high winter temperatures in the Scandinavian countries.. summer temperatures haven't budged much. The local lakes won't freeze over by Dec 10th in central Finland this year.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 09:10:11

Thanks for the info, JV. "really high winter temperatures in the Scandinavian countries.. summer temperatures haven't budged much"

Exactly the fingerprint of GHG-triggered GW. Solar fluctuation would not yield this kind of pattern.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 09:17:23

Thanks for the info, JV. "really high winter temperatures in the Scandinavian countries.. summer temperatures haven't budged much"

Exactly the fingerprint of GHG-triggered GW. Solar fluctuation would not yield this kind of pattern.

I have to say though that I don't much like the saying, "The earth is not in danger."

When people say, "Save the earth." Their not talking about the rock with a molten middle spinning around the sun. That would be daft. They are clearly talking about the living things on the earth and the systems that support the same. It is surprising how often otherwise smart people fail to realize that one word can have more than one meaning, and that they should address the meaning in use, not some other irrelevant meaning, in any discussion.

It's about as daft as someone responding to the statement, "We will have to bear the burden of knowing that we will have brought about the extinction of most complex life on the planet," by saying, "I don't have a bear!"

The rest of the text and all the images were quite effective, though. It's really the phytoplankton that serve as the major lungs of the earth.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Dec 2015, 14:02:06

Several provinces in South Africa have recently been declared drought disaster areas, leaving some farmers in serious financial trouble and raising the possibility of food shortages across the country.

http://www.voanews.com/content/southern ... 99455.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Dec 2015, 14:03:36

Meanwhile state side, El Nino seems to be doing its job watering most of the south, but the far west is still very dry.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 07 Jan 2016, 11:58:57

http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la- ... story.html

Drought and war are taking their horrific toll in East Africa again.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kuidaskassikaeb » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 11:51:11

Something that probably belongs here. An estimate of crop losses from extreme weather.

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/01/07/age-extreme-weather-industrial-farming-threatens-us-all

Yes these people do have an agenda, but who doesn't.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7584/full/nature16467.html

The paper cited with less politics. Basically just the estimate. Drought and extreme heat produce 10% reduction in production during drought and high heat years. Yes there will be more of these with global warming. Corn is most susceptible to heat.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 15:35:44

Good catches, k.

Here's more coverage on that Nature article: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... e28033561/

North American crops among those most affected by climate change

the single-crop farming practices that prevail in North America would leave the food supply of countries in the developing world more vulnerable if they were adopted there.

“This tells us that we should be wary of proposed solutions to hunger in poor countries that are based on the adoption of large-scale industrial farming systems,” Jennifer Clapp, a professor of global food security at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, said.

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 18:53:55

onlooker wrote:The drought conditions of the Amazon rain forest cannot but have dire consequences for the Earth's climate. My goodness this plethora of environmental instability is distressing to me and I do not even have kids. What have we done to our planet!
http://www.weather.com/news/news/brazil ... azon-river


I ALWAYS think it is odd that the IPCC Climate Talks mention COMPENSATION for hard hit areas as IF this is WELFARE the USA is to dole out. Of course, this fits right into the lap of conservative obstruction, no doubt, and probably why it is advocated.

The fact is that we should be BRIBING all the third world countries to MAINTAIN their commons in pristine condition mainly because we have so destroyed ours already. We think we can destroy the lungs of the world without it eventually affecting us? How short-sighted.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 09 Jan 2016, 23:54:44

From December: Bolivia Declares Disappearance of Lake a National Disaster

Bolivia’s second largest lake has dried up with devastating impacts, proving that financial support from the European Union was not enough to save the high-altitude saltwater ecosystem of Bolivia’s Lake Poopo prompting local authorities to declare a national disaster, local media reported Sunday.


http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/B ... -0011.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Jan 2016, 00:08:30

Mean while Shasta lake in California has come up eleven feet in the last month.
It still has some 145 feet to go but it is a start.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?SHA
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Jan 2016, 22:48:46

CA still looks pretty dark red. That El Nino is taking its time about dumping tons of water on the area. Perhaps the Warm Blob in the Northeast Pacific is altering the pattern. This El Nino is playing itself out in a world that is climatically fundamentally different from earlier major El Nino's so it's not too surprising that it is 'expressing' itself somewhat differently.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 08:30:19

dohboi wrote:CA still looks pretty dark red. That El Nino is taking its time about dumping tons of water on the area. Perhaps the Warm Blob in the Northeast Pacific is altering the pattern. This El Nino is playing itself out in a world that is climatically fundamentally different from earlier major El Nino's so it's not too surprising that it is 'expressing' itself somewhat differently.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


Dohboi maybe you have a resource for some information I am looking for. During the 'permanent' El Nino conditions of the past what was the climate in Baja California like? Did the peninsula get regular rain or was it perpetually dry? So far my attempts to discover that information have been fruitless, almost all climate resources online are American or European and don't cover Mexico.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 10:18:36

Wow, good question. The Euro- and Anglophone bias in the media can indeed be quite annoying. I cast about a bit, but no source immediately comes to mind.

I'll just point out for now that this study, at least, claims that permanent El Nino conditions never actually existed:

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-permanent- ... ayand.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 10:34:00

This has a map (Figure 1, page 2221) that suggests that the Baja peninsula right on the edge of a large blob of 'cooler/wetter' effects that covered pretty much all of the southern and much of western US and a it of northern Mexico. These areas are obviously not intended to have precise boundaries, though.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2009/200 ... etal_1.pdf
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