by Tanada » Tue 07 Jul 2015, 16:02:47
yellowcanoe wrote:Our society isn't going to figure this out until oil becomes less available. Thanks to the large amount of investment in oil production due to high prices (until last year) the point where world oil production starts to fall has been postponed. Those of us in Canada and the USA are fortunate in that a large part of our oil consumption is frivolous -- therefore we can still have enough oil for all the important things even with a significant reduction in availability. The other benefit we have is that we have a significant amount of oil production right here. Having the oil that will be required to transition away from being a fossil fuel based society is a big advantage over other parts of the world such as Asia and Europe that are largely dependent on imported oil.
Oil companies have scaled back their investment in oil production in part because oil prices have declined, but also because some of the non-conventional sources of oil (ie. Alberta tar sands) were more expensive to develop than they had expected. Simply maintaining current oil production would require ever increasing investments in oil production and that is not likely to happen. It won't happen tomorrow, but I believe we are reaching the point where world oil production will go into decline.
YC this is a point I tried really hard to make early in my time here on PO.com. Essential oil use is growing and processing food, transporting food from field/farm to end consumer, hauling away garbage, maintaining the infrastructure to permit the above and provide some heating in winter. When you have enough for all those things then you have Police/Fire/EMT needs next on the list. After that is fueled up you have Military/border control to keep outsiders from coming and taking away the food you managed to produce by force.
When the oil runs short TPTB will want to remain TPTB, to do that they have to feed their population, maintain order and perform certain other vital functions. Moving plastic toys from Los Angeles port to Chicago will be way down on the priority list. Shipping hamburgers and fries to McDonald's will rate far higher on the keep the masses content list than providing fuel for Dad to drive to the Golf course on Sunday or Mom to pick the kids up after school so they don't have to ride the school bus.
America has a HUGE amount of slack in the system. The world after peak will be very very different, but it won't be the end of civilization unless we start some sort of total war over the scraps that are left.
In other words, barring a Carrington Event or Total Nuclear War we will muddle on through into the long decline, after that things will slowly get worse and worse as infrastructure fails and is not replaced quickly or at all. The Western Roman Empire did not grind to a halt one day when Rome the city was sacked. The infrastructure had been decaying for 50 years before that and kept declining for another 200 years after that before western Europe hit rock bottom around 650 AD.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.