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THE Saudi Arabia Thread pt 6

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: KSA's fifth largest bank forecasts fall in oil productio

Unread postby Peepers » Sun 08 Apr 2007, 02:07:24

Yeah, maybe they'll even catch up to the U.S.'s gluttony in a couple of decades!

But I'll wager that PO won't allow anyone to catch up to the U.S. More likely, it will force the U.S. to cut back drastically, closer to where China, India and the EU are consumption-wise (but they will also probably cut back).

Anyway, back to Saudi Arabia....
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Re: KSA's fifth largest bank forecasts fall in oil productio

Unread postby americandream » Sun 08 Apr 2007, 02:09:56

Now why would there be any voluntary reduction at this juncture.

Surely the Chindian locomotive would have kept prices buoyant notwithstanding supply levels being kept intact.

I can't see the rationale for voluntary cuts given the facts..
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Re: KSA's fifth largest bank forecasts fall in oil productio

Unread postby MD » Sun 08 Apr 2007, 07:18:07

Peepers wrote:Yeah, maybe they'll even catch up to the U.S.'s gluttony in a couple of decades!

But I'll wager that PO won't allow anyone to catch up to the U.S. More likely, it will force the U.S. to cut back drastically, closer to where China, India and the EU are consumption-wise (but they will also probably cut back).....


The moment it becomes evident to the Chinese that SA has peaked, they will use their economic leverage to adjust US consumption downward.

They have already announced the applicable policy shift if anyone has been paying attention.

They have anticipated the coming adjustement carefully, and have many new resource rich trading partners ready to sign happy long-term trading agreements.

Dollars be damned.
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Re: KSA's fifth largest bank forecasts fall in oil productio

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 08 Apr 2007, 09:24:58

Jack wrote:
MD wrote:Down 7.5%
I certainly hope this is voluntary; at least partly.


From the article:

Government budget spending has been on a roll ... Our forecast for 2007 is $116 billion, up around 11.5 per cent from the previous year," the bank said in the report received yesterday.


With an increase in spending such as that, I cannot help but wonder if hopes of the reduction being voluntary aren't...shall we say...forlorn?



There is a very good book called "The Coming Fall of the House of Saud" and it goes into how bankrupt the whole regime is. It definitely opened my eyes!
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KSA as Goalie . . .

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 11:26:25

No link - I'm feeling a bit lazy.

KSA announced today that they intended to raise production, "a substantial amount."

This is starting to look a lot like the stock market over the last 6 months, where every time a Bear rally gets going, the Fed would come out with some announcement or other to pump the market - the classic being the MLK day massacre that the Fed stick saved with a massive interest rate drop pre hours on the Tuesday after.

So now, the oil market looked poised to make a run at 150 when this week opened, and, bing, KSA comes out with a timely announcement.

Again, today, KSA comes out and makes an announcement when it appears that oil was ready to keep moving hard past 140.

Much like the Fed/SM example, however, it appears that time is running out.

Every Fed save has been followed by the market moving back down, and it's been challenging 12000 for a few days now.

Same with KSA. The announce, oil drops 2-4, and then, inexorably, begins its climb anew.

Like the sheik is sitting atop a hill, kicking this zombie down, but the zombie just keeps coming, tirelessly.

KSA is VERY worried.

Making announcements, calling world meetings.

They see the price inflation in oil as a de facto challenge to their legitimacy.

They desperately need a cover, but there is none.
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Re: KSA as Goalie . . .

Unread postby jackal42 » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 11:43:18

What would happen if they announced the reality of things?

'make an own goal' so to speak. :P
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Re: KSA as Goalie . . .

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 19:17:52

The only thing that helps at this point is that they quickly, and I mean within a few weeks or months, begin flowing significant amounts of new light sweet crude. It has to be almost immediate to make a difference.

I just dont see that they have that ability. Its more window dressing. There is going to come a time of reckoning fairly soon. I thought it was going to be last fall but now it's appearing that it will be this summer.

At some point they either have the ability to increase flows or they dont and we will all know about it.
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Re: KSA as Goalie . . .

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 19:27:23

It wasn't exactly an announcement, but one article in a Middle East journal. Iran stated shortly later that OPEC had not even discussed any production increase - albeit SA coudl still do this on its own.

SA actually does have some new light sweet crude coming on line. The figure I remember is a possible 300,000 bpd increase in light sweet crude in one field by year end. Construction reports have it that must ramp up slowly, so it doesn't seem possible they could bring the 300,000 lsc up all at once.

While that helps, ongoing depletion and domestic use will eat into total exports.

So yes, a small increase is possible in July up to 9.55 million bpd, from said 9.45 mbpd at this moment, but the latest reports have it that SA only plans to increase 300,000 bpd of heavy crude in the month of June.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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In cyberattack on Saudi firm, US sees Iran firing back

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 24 Oct 2012, 09:11:54

Hope they made a practice of back-ups!:
In cyberattack on Saudi firm, US sees Iran firing back
Experts say parts of virus connect it to code used to attack Iranian oil companies
By Nicole Perlroth --The hackers picked the one day of the year they knew they could inflict the most damage on the world’s most valuable company, Saudi Aramco.
On Aug. 15, more than 55,000 Saudi Aramco employees stayed home from work to prepare for one of Islam’s holiest nights of the year — Lailat al Qadr, or the Night of Power — celebrating the revelation of the Koran to Muhammad.
That morning, at 11:08, a person with privileged access to the Saudi state-owned oil company’s computers, unleashed a computer virus to initiate what is regarded as among the most destructive acts of computer sabotage on a company to date. The virus erased data on three-quarters of Aramco’s corporate PCs — documents, spreadsheets, e-mails, files — replacing all of it with an image of a burning American flag. …
It could have been much worse. An examination of the sabotage revealed why government officials and computer experts found the attack disturbing. Aramco’s oil production operations are segregated from the company’s internal communications network. Once executives were assured that only the internal communications network had been hit and that not a drop of oil had been spilled, they set to work replacing the hard drives of tens of thousands of its PCs and tracking down the parties responsible, according to two people close to the investigation but who were not authorized to speak publicly about it. …

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49528938/ns ... k_times/... 153337144
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Re: In cyberattack on Saudi firm, US sees Iran firing back

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Oct 2012, 16:00:29

DOD says US computer networks in utilities and private companies have also been penetrated by foreign black hats. I hope not ---- imagine tens of thousands of McDonald's losing control of their french fry makers----it would be disastrous for the American economy!
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Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 15:56:53

Should Saudi Arabia fear North Dakota? A member of the Saudi royal family says yes.

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, founder of Kingdom Holding and a multi-billionaire investor in News Corp, Time Warner and Citigroup, among other companies, has told Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi that the desert kingdom is making a mistake not to worry about burgeoning U.S. oil and gas production.

In a letter published on Twitter, the prince calls rising American shale gas production "an inevitable threat." Saudi Arabia, he warns, "is almost entirely dependent on oil, and this reality is becoming a source of concern for all."

The Saudi oil minister said in May that he wasn't worried about increased U.S. production from shale, and that OPEC had survived past increases in production from countries outside OPEC.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/saudis-fear-us-shale-oil-boom/story?id=19820719


US shale threatens Saudi funding crisis and demise of OPEC

Saudi Arabia and the Opec oil states must wean their economies off energy exports immediately or spiral into decline as America’s shale revolution shatters the world order, a top Saudi business leader has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10209822/US-shale-threatens-Saudi-funding-crisis-and-demise-of-OPEC.html


I stopped following these issues for quite a while, in that meantime casually consuming mainstream media I keep hearing that shale is going to make us the next KSA.

What's the latest on this? Are we going to get energy independent from fracking and shale? And where does that leave peak oil, delayed? Were the cornies right?
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 16:23:12

look around the site, you can probably find some threads on this topic.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 16:35:53

Pops wrote:look around the site, you can probably find some threads on this topic.


I'll admit my eyes glaze over about the nitty gritty of oil and I'm out of my depth so I've always stayed out of those long threads and would prefer a summary.

Here's what I find interesting, that there's shale in other parts of the world not just Dakota:

Meet The Oil Shale Eighty Times Bigger Than The Bakken

But as great as the Bakken is, I learned last week about another oil shale play that dwarfs it. It’s called The Bazhenov. It’s in Western Siberia, in Russia. And while the Bakken is big, the Bazhenov — according to a report last week by Sanford Bernstein’s lead international oil analyst Oswald Clint — “covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres, which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined.” This is 80 times bigger than the Bakken.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/04/bakken-bazhenov-shale-oil/


So what are the implications of that? The shale boom is real, don't we have to admit that? If they can get shale oil in Russia too and around the world, what does that mean for peak oil?
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 16:40:08

Sure…the Saudis are curled up in a fetal position fearing our shales. LOL. Why not just stick with facts instead of opinions from some folks.

In 2002 the Saudis took in about $60 billion by selling 7.25 million bopd. In 2011 they took in $260 billion selling 7 million bopd. In 2012 their income jumped another $51 billion to $311 billion according to the EIA. Estimate for 2013 are running as high as $350 billion….5X as much as they made just 11 years ago.

Yep…our shale production is really hurting them. LOL. First, we don’t buy much KSA oil. Second, we may be importing less oil now but the US is still the leading oil importer on the planet. It’s estimated that for 2013 the US will spend $400 billion on imported oil. And this is with the aid of those “huge” gains from the shale we are currently enjoying.

Do any of those facts smell like “energy independence “ to you? Are you overwhelmed with an unbridled sense of optimism? LOL. Folks are free to predict whatever they want. But they can’t change the current facts. And now you have them.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 18:08:04

LOL, just giving you a ration six, I know PO ain't your thing. Here are 3 pictures:

First here is the great US tight oil bonanza, (notice that the rest of the world has been flat for 7 or 8 years)

Image


Second, here is a picture of the future of US tight oil (notice the bonanza from ND and TX seems to be about done bonanzaing, did they mention that in the MSM? LOL)

Image


Finally, here is a picture of how long different amounts of oil would take to peak at current rates of extraction. Notice how even doubling the amount estimated to be available only delays the peak 25 years.


Image

Finally, if all the tight oil estimated to be "technically" recoverable (that means regardless of cost) could be produced right now (none is being produced - anywhere - besides here right now) it would add about 5 years to peak

Reports of PO's demise have been greatly exaggerated, six, things are progressing about at the mean predicted level I'd say. No Mad Max but no Energy Fairy on a methane-free unicorn either.

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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 18:21:34

But hey, I don't blame you for being mislead by MSM six, take a look at this doozy

diane-sawyer-us-will-be-largest-exporter-t67702.html
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 21:04:14

Pops - You have to feel a little sorry for her. No doubt someone just handed her someone else's analysis and she naturally, and very incorrectly, assumed they had minimal math skills. LOL.

That Russian shale does cover a much larger area then the Bakken. And so? We have many shale formations in the US that cover much greater areas than the Bakken (which isn't an exactly pure fractured shale trend) or the Eagle Ford Shale. We have dozens of shale source rocks in the US and yet 80%+ of our tite oil comes from just those two formations. But companies have been trying. Shale is by far the most common sedimentary rock on in the US as well as the rest of the planet. And only a small percentage have shown the potential for commercial develop even with the advanced technology and current high prices.

But, having said that, the Russian shale may eventually turn into a viable play. Just a tad early to be talking about economically recoverable RESERVES IMHO. But does appear to be a huge potential RESOURCE. It could easily take 10 - 15 years to even begin to get a handle on it. And that would just be the exploration phase before any serious development could begin. Lots of holes will have to be punched before the sweet and sour spots can be delineated.

But that's not the biggest hindrance. The current Russian tax, royalty and ownership laws allow only a minimal amount of current interest. And apparently, as the largest oil producer on the planet, the Russian gov't doesn't appear to be anxious to change the game. But some feel the declining Russian production level will provide an eventual shift in policy.

And one last friendly reminder: PO has nothing to do with however many billions of bbls of oil the Russian (and all the other shales combined) may contain. It's about the global flow rate of oil out of the ground. And looking thru the most glowing and optimistic reports on the Russian shale predicts at most 1 - 2 million bopd and even that will take at least 10 years and that's only after the current policies of the Russian gov't are altered. Even the Russian analysts see only the potential to replace Russian decline and not increase over production to any significant level.

And one last pitch for the POD: the increased shale production has come at a price...a very high price: $100+ per bbl of oil. The world of the Bakken, Eagle Ford et al is the world of expensive energy, economic malaise increased military tensions, etc. This world is not the cornucopians' wet dream.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 21:18:40

ROCKMAN wrote:Yep…our shale production is really hurting them. LOL. First, we don’t buy much KSA oil. Second, we may be importing less oil now but the US is still the leading oil importer on the planet.


Apparently a title we don't be holding all that much longer. <sigh> The good ol' days!

http://peakoil.com/consumption/within-f ... l-than-u-s
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 21:31:35

Wow, are Forbes lifting material from Brian Wang's Next Big Future blog? That excerpt sounds like a direct quote.

France has a world class shale play, too, the Paris Basin. Guess what part of the country that's in. They've come out solidly against exploiting it though as they don't want earthquakes/flammable drinking water/increased carbon footprint/who knows what else. My other case study would be the Eagle Ford, notice how you cross the Rio Grande headed south and suddenly have absolutely no shale production going on whatsoever, even though as you'd imagine geological formations don't respect national boundaries in any way? But the Canadians drill into their part of the Bakken with no restraint. If a nation's fundamentally a basket case infrastructure wise you're just not likely to see much happen. Venezuela has billions of barrels of heavy oil they could be lifting, but the country's just too screwed up to get at it. Geologically they're much the same kind of province as California.

As for Russia I posted a link to an article about Putin letting up on the reigns on their companies to drill into unconventional formations - and of course included a proviso to make sure the government gets their stake in the end anyway. Forget the gory details. So it could take a while to see oil cos dive into the tight oil business full bore. I think of what's going on in the US as a test run. It has definitely been interesting to observe. As a denizen of PADD 5 I'm not surprised that all of this frenized Saudi America 20 stage whoo ha might as well be taking place in Timbuktu for all it's done to ease my pain at the pump, too.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 10 Sep 2013, 08:01:19

Dude – Perfect timing for your post. While falling asleep last night I thought about an important aspect of the shale hype I didn’t mention when discussing the BRS (Big Russian Shale).

A bad habit of folks with a knowledge base in an area: they assume everyone else understands the obvious. Regarding Mexico and the Eagle Ford Shale: the EFS and its equivalent sections also extends eastward to Florida. And it has been tested sporadically along the entire tend. And in the immediate area of the EFS drilling boom it also extends north as well as south all the way to the coast line. Just a rough guess but the booming area of the EFS probably covers no more than 5% of the areal extent of the EFS. IOW so far only a small portion of the EFS trend has been proven to contain all the necessary elements for significant commercial development. Companies are still poking around the trend but so far no boom area as has been found like that relatively small area around San Antonio.

Which leads back to the reports of how large an area the BRS covers. And my smart ass comment: “So what?” I’ve repeated seen folks refer to “the shales” as having great potential. That’s not true and has been proven. In some rather restrictive areas some of the shale formations have commercial potential. But the vast majority of the shales even in the US have little or no commercial potential. Just consider the area where the EFS is booming: there are a dozen other shale formations that occur immediately above and below the EFS. And those shale formations measure in the many thousands of feet in thickness compared to the typical EFS section measuring at most a few hundred feet in thickness. And many of those shales have been proven to have acted as source rocks. And some of those formations have boomed in the past. Such as the Austin Chalk. In fact the horizontally drilled and frac’d AC was the hottest oil play on the planet in the 90’s and eventually covered a much larger area than the current EFS boom. But you don’t hear about much activity in the AC these days and for good reason: it has been pretty much drilled up.

Another example I can point to from first hand personal experience: I’m currently shooting 3d seismic data west of Fort Worth, Texas. Not only is the Barnett Shale present in this county but it also acts as the source rock for the formation I’m targeting with the seismic. In fact the BS, as an oil source rock, is key to my project. But I’m not having to pay thousands of $’s per acre for leases as Chesapeake did. And for good reason: the Barnett Shale is not a commercial target in this very large county. Yes…it is present. Yes…it is a great source rock for multiple formations in the area. No…the Barnett Shale is not a commercial play in this area.

It’s very easy to confuse folks when such huge geographic areas are tossed around. Likewise with huge INPLACE RESERVE numbers. But as your studies and those of many others have shown there is not a direct correlation between all the hyped numbers and actual production. Unlike men, not all shale are created equal. LOL. And again, PO isn't about millions of square miles or billions of barrels. It's about barrels of oil per day. For all the numbers tossed around about the Big Russian Shale I could not find one simple number in any of the reports I found: the number of barrels of oil per day currently being produced from the BRS. It will eventually produce what it will produce. But today, right now, how much is it contributing to our global oil production capacity?
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