When I was reading the FAQs I saw this
Decline rate is the function of permeability, porosity and well depth and is proportional to 1/sqrt(Time) that is the square root of time.
Decline rate is the function of permeability, porosity and well depth and is proportional to 1/sqrt(Time).
that is the square root of time.
This is something that bothers me. I notice that typically the declines are plotted on log scale and people are always talking about decline rates in exponential. Anyway I looked around and it seems that while the Bermans are talking about high decline rates the operators are expecting very slow long term declines, and the square root of time dependence used in this study is by far the most optimistic I have seen, and most shale operators are already assuming decline rates better than the theoretical best.
Bermans take on the Bakken shows the effect of assuming the decline rate on the ultimate recovery.
http://theseventhfold.files.wordpress.c ... r_2009.pdfSince the takeaway on this paper seems to be that the Barnett will last forever, and the data in his paper is from the Barnett somebody got it wrong.