Stradles the arab and the sub saharan African world as well. Most likely peter out but has the potential to become a long running religious guerrilla war.
This is not a religious war and never has been. The press and certain Christian groups in the west would like you to believe it but it is as far from the truth as you can get. How do I know...I've been there and spent a lot of time both in Khartoum and in Heglig. The south is mostly animist, not Christian. They were at war tribe on tribe for many, many generations. It was the attacks on the oil developments that started the whole thing and it escalated from there. When the peace treaty was signed if you knew anything about the Dinkas and other tribes in the south you would know that they would be at each others throats in months (which they were) and it wouldn't be long before they felt they didn't get enough of the oil. It is politics and power that has driven the war in the past and will do the same know. Bashir is a nut for sure but he isn't the demon he is made out to be in the press nor are the south full of angelic innocents.
China has to come to a decision that will not anger the African leaders or the Arabs.
Welcome to the big leagues China. Not so easy now.
China has already paid out their investment in Sudan many times over. In addition to the original fields in Block I AB, II and IV they also have production in Block 6 and made a very large discovery which is now on stream in Block 3/7. Even if Heglig is shut-in (the dividing line had Heglig in the north and Unity field in the south, the two biggest accumulations) the chinese will have significant production. They also have a host of related interests in the country including wireline logging, construction, drilling rigs, seismic companies, restaurants etc. They aren't going anywhere anytime soon.