[C8]

Some news- italics are mine and there to call your attention to key parts- commentary follows.

Oil Hunted in Mozambique After World’s Largest Gas Discoveries

By Eduard Gismatullin - Jun 14, 2013 4:04 AM ET (Bloomberg)

Statoil ASA (STL) and Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) are finishing a well aimed at achieving the first commercial oil discovery in Mozambique, the East African country where explorers have made the century’s largest natural gas finds. The partners’ Cachalote well off Mozambique is drilling past potential gas fields and looking for crude discoveries further under the seabed, Tullow Exploration Director, Angus McCoss said in an interview yesterday. The well is expected to be finished later this month.

“We think that some of the deeper plays” may have oil, McCoss said. “That’s what the focus of that campaign is in trying to find the elusive oil offshore East Africa.”

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) and Eni SpA (ENI) have found more than 100 trillion cubic feet of gas off Mozambique, enough fuel to build the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas plant. Oil, which explorers prefer because it’s easier and cheaper to ship to customers, has been harder to find. In 2010, Anadarko’s Ironclad well showed evidence of oil without making an economically viable discovery.

“The value lies in oil,” McCoss said in London. Cachalote is “certainly worth doing as a potentially needle-moving prospect.”

The partners are targeting about 200 million barrels of oil at Cachalote, Tom Robinson, a London-based analyst at Nomura International Plc, wrote in a June 3 report. The well, located in Area 2 to the south of Mozambique’s gas finds, is due for completion this month, Tullow said on May 8.

Frontier Area

“This is the first exploration well in this area, so it’s a frontier area,” Statoil spokesman Baard Glad Pedersen said by phone. “It has a potential for oil, but we are in the early phase.” Statoil operates the well.

Anadarko drilled the Barracuda and Black Pearl wells last year in the southern part of Area 1 to follow up on Ironclad, Robert G. Gwin, chief financial officer, said Feb. 5. Both were unsuccessful.

Eni, which is exploring Area 4 off Mozambique, also plans to drill for oil in the second half of this year, Claudio Descalzi, the head of exploration and production, said March 14.

“We going to start a new exploration campaign with the first well that will be drilled in July,” he said. “It’s in different kind of environment, different target and mainly oil, so that is quite important.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at [email protected]

You mean to tell me this area hasn't been explored in the world before? What about all those people who used to say all the areas of the world have been drilled and explored so Peak Oil is a done deal? If this news is true, then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

[rockdoc123]

Offshore East Africa actually has a long history of exploration. There were wells drilled offshore there into the delta(s) back in the seventies that had gas shows. The theory was that the gas derived here was not thermogenic but rather biogenic and because until recently gas really wasn't of great interest to international explorers it wasn't until Anadarko stumbled into the discovery at Windjammer about 6 years ago or so that real interest picked up. The idea that there might be oil here isn't new either. In adjacent Tanzania there is oil present in outcrop and oil shows have been found in the Jurassic at relatively shallow depth. If you pull back the plates Madagascar fits right there and it has something in the order of 20 billion barrels of heavy oil onshore at Bemelonga and Tsimimoro fields. But offshore drilling in Madagascar hasn't seen any success.

The concept that there might be oil offshore Mozambique isn't a new one, I remember looking at offshore seismic data there back in the eighties, its just that back then there were bigger, lower risk targets to chase elsewhere.

[dorlomin]

You mean to tell me this area hasn't been explored in the world before? What about all those people who used to say all the areas of the world have been drilled and explored so Peak Oil is a done deal? If this news is true, then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

Instead of flying in, over the ball, with studs showing.... you could have googled first.

Exploration for hydrocarbons in Mozambique goes back to 1904 when the early explorers discovered thick sedimentary basins onshore Mozambique. Poor technology and lack of funds halted those early exploration attempts.

From 1948 onwards international oil companies moved into Mozambique and carried out extensive exploration, mainly onshore with limited activity offshore. As a result the Pande Gas Field was discovered in 1961 by Gulf Oil followed by the gas discoveries of Búzi (1962) and Temane (1967).
Exploration activity declined in the early 1970’s due to political unrest.
New activity was established in the early 1980’s with the enactment of law 3/81 and creation of ENH. In the following years extensive work was carried out to map and appraise the Pande Field.

A breakthrough was made in 1993 when it became clear that the Pande Field could be mapped using direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) from seismic data and it turned out that there was a giant bright spot at the top of the reservoir. The method was later also used to map the Temane field with good result.

From 1970 to 1980 there have only been drilled 6 wildcat wells in Mozambique – 3 of them offshore.
An extensive drilling campaign conducted by Sasol in 2003 which included exploration and production wells in the Pande/Temane Block allowed the expansion of gas reserves and the discovery of Inhassoro Gas Field, making total of 5.504 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

http://www.inp.gov.mz/Exploration-Production/History-of-Petroleum-Exploration-in-Mozambique2

then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

Would you like to moderate your tone now or shall we have a shift of the goal posts and more histrionics?

[ROCKMAN]

““This is the first exploration well in this area, so it’s a frontier area,”. Maybe with respect to that smaller area it's “frontierish” but according to the Petroleum Institute of Mozambique the country has been poked around for a good while. From:

http://www.inp.gov.mz/Exploration-Produ ... ozambique2

“Exploration for hydrocarbons in Mozambique goes back to 1904 when the early explorers discovered thick sedimentary basins onshore Mozambique. Poor technology and lack of funds halted those early exploration attempts. From 1948 onwards international oil companies moved into Mozambique and carried out extensive exploration, mainly onshore with limited activity offshore. As a result the Pande Gas Field was discovered in 1961 by Gulf Oil followed by the gas discoveries of Búzi (1962) and Temane (1967). Exploration activity declined in the early 1970’s due to political unrest.”

So lots of wells drilled over a half century and some big NG fields discovered. So yes…this area has seen a good bit of exploration a long time ago.

“New activity was established in the early 1980’s with the enactment of law 3/81 and creation of ENH. In the following years extensive work was carried out to map and appraise the Pande Field. A breakthrough was made in 1993 when it became clear that the Pande Field could be mapped using direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) from seismic data and it turned out that there was a giant bright spot at the top of the reservoir. The method was later also used to map the Temane field with good result. From 1970 to 1980 there have only been drilled 6 wildcat wells in Mozambique – 3 of them offshore. An extensive drilling campaign conducted by Sasol in 2003 which included exploration and production wells in the Pande/Temane Block allowed the expansion of gas reserves and the discovery of Inhassoro Gas Field, making total of 5.504 trillion cubic feet (TCF).”

So yes…this area has been explored. What liar told you Mozambique hasn’t been explored? I’ll take them out and flog them myself. I want names! LOL. Obviously it has been but no one found a significant oil field in the last 60+ years of exploration there. At least not yet. But I remind folks of what I read years ago: the first significant oil field was found by the 93rd well drilled in the N Sea. Don’t know if that’s really true or just one more urban legend. But there’s always a geologist or two around with another bright idea that can’t miss. I’ve seen many such dry holes drilled one equally plausible ideas but why not give M. another fling or two.

I think you may know this but in some regions there can be huge NG source rocks and little to no oil source rocks. And that can often be determines by detailed studies of even the dry holes. BTW it shows one of the problems will exploring out in the boonies. They mention the “big breakthrough” in 1993 when they discovered how good those DHI’s on the seismic where at finding those NG fields. Such quality seismic quality was being used in the US 20 years earlier to find NG fields. It just took that long for the data quality to improve in Mozambique.

And shame on you for considering some folks "oil experts" who really weren't. How does that saying go: "Fool me once shame on you...". LOL.

[C8]

You mean to tell me this area hasn't been explored in the world before? What about all those people who used to say all the areas of the world have been drilled and explored so Peak Oil is a done deal? If this news is true, then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

Instead of flying in, over the ball, with studs showing.... you could have googled first.

Exploration for hydrocarbons in Mozambique goes back to 1904 when the early explorers discovered thick sedimentary basins onshore Mozambique. Poor technology and lack of funds halted those early exploration attempts.

From 1948 onwards international oil companies moved into Mozambique and carried out extensive exploration, mainly onshore with limited activity offshore. As a result the Pande Gas Field was discovered in 1961 by Gulf Oil followed by the gas discoveries of Búzi (1962) and Temane (1967).
Exploration activity declined in the early 1970’s due to political unrest.
New activity was established in the early 1980’s with the enactment of law 3/81 and creation of ENH. In the following years extensive work was carried out to map and appraise the Pande Field.

A breakthrough was made in 1993 when it became clear that the Pande Field could be mapped using direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) from seismic data and it turned out that there was a giant bright spot at the top of the reservoir. The method was later also used to map the Temane field with good result.

From 1970 to 1980 there have only been drilled 6 wildcat wells in Mozambique – 3 of them offshore.
An extensive drilling campaign conducted by Sasol in 2003 which included exploration and production wells in the Pande/Temane Block allowed the expansion of gas reserves and the discovery of Inhassoro Gas Field, making total of 5.504 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

http://www.inp.gov.mz/Exploration-Production/History-of-Petroleum-Exploration-in-Mozambique2

then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

Would you like to moderate your tone now or shall we have a shift of the goal posts and more histrionics?

Wow- lots of personal attacks, I am going to have to remember to avoid your threads. If you read my post carefully (which you obviously didn't) I do not claim nobody has drilled in the area. I wouldn't do that since I do not know the history of world drilling efforts (and never claimed I did!) I claimed that many Peak Oil "experts" said the world has been thoroughly explored and (therefore) there is nothing big left to find that will save us from Peak Oil. I am not making a claim about the drilling, I am making a claim about what others have said about the drilling. A constant theme of Peak Oil "experts" were 1. the big finds have been found 2. technology will not save the day 3. the crash is imminent - all three of these claims have been found false, which greatly brings into question how "expert" they were. It is sad that so many accepted the claims of these "experts" without much question.

I happen to believe that PO is going to make a big impact someday, and is doing so a little now, Peak Oil "experts" in 2008 were charting 3-5% yearly world declines starting in 2012. Many of these folks clearly had no idea what they were talking about as this find, and others, prove. Do you dispute this? If you don't then you owe me an apology.

[ROCKMAN]

C8 - "Many of these folks clearly had no idea what they were talking about as this find, and others, prove. " OMG...are you telling me there are anonymous poster on the net who act like they are experts and really don't know what they are talking about??? Wait till I tell my mates at "Elvis is still alive and selling auto insurance in Orlando" web site and tell them. But I doubt they'll believe me...even though I am one of the experts there.

[dorlomin]

Wow- lots of personal attacks,

then a lot of Peak Oil "experts" were either shamefully ignorant or out right lying.

Indeed

[ralfy]

Re: declines, I am reminded of

"Total Production by the Top Five Oil Majors Has Fallen by a Quarter Since 2004"

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9946

[Pops]

C8, The story in your OP is about an oil well that hasn't even been completed, I wouldn't get all worked up. There are threads on this site bulging with oil company and stock pumping PR reposted diligently for almost 10 years now talking about the next Ghawar.

I'd suggest giving the words you did not italicize the same weight of those you did:
"We think that some of the deeper plays may have oil"
“It has a potential for oil, but we are in the early phase.”

Regardless, even if it has commercial oil, it can't "save us from Peak Oil". The central point that "All the PO Experts" have been trying to make is that we have used about half of what we'll ever use. It was the easy to find and extract half; the second half will be harder and slower and more expensive. But remember,

The other half has to come from somewhere.

Think about this when you see one of these press releases, every barrel of oil extracted, anywhere in the world reduces that well's future capacity by one barrel. We consume 75mmb/d of crude oil and condensate so 75mmb/d of productive capacity must be replaced, everyday, just to stay even.

We don't know where all the other half is, that's why it's called "Yet to Find". Discoveries like this (if it is a discovery) are required to meet even the most pessimistic expectations of peak oil experts.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops – “…bulging with oil company and stock pumping PR”. What?!?! First I learn that there are folks on the net pretending to be experts who aren’t and now you’re telling me some companies may be overly optimistic about amount of oil they haven’t discovered yet. I have to get a second cup of coffee and completely reassess my view of life. LOL.

Not directing this at C8 personally (I don’t like the personal shots across the bow either) but one of often used debating techniques here and at TOD is tossing out someone’s interpretation or prediction that is proven wrong and then using that to paint an overly broad conclusion on the entire matter. Even worse when they use the words of an especially wacko doomer or cornucopian. And I notice this approach is often used when the perp has little facts to support their position. So not do much “This is why I’m correct” as “They are all wrong”.

Maybe they’ll eventually find a 100 million bo in M. Who knows…maybe even a very long shot mega-field. But as you say to what degree would it change the POD?

[C8]

Folks- the idea that Peak Oil is imminent because all the planet has been well drilled and there will be no more big discoveries is not the idea of just some anonymous internet poster. This was the official position of the Peak Oil community up to 2011 practically, as represented by its major speakers and websites. I read this in Kunstlers popular book The Long Emergency, I read it from Heinberg, ASPO, it was in countless feature postings on the Oildrum, and other PO sites. This is not some "out there" idea by some wacko- this was the basic argument that the PO community was making as to why sharp declines in production were going to start happening by 2010 or 2012 the latest. Don't try to minimize the source of where I heard this line- this represented the best and the brightest of the PO community and was backed up by countless official looking charts on the Oildrum and - yes- also given at professional conferences and PO spokesmen were quoted in major publications like Forbes, Time, NY Times, etc.

And its scared the crap out of many people, caused people to become depressed for years. It scared people into making decisions that were foolish and put them in an even worse position. it was professional fear mongering at its worst. Don't try to minimize the damage they really did, the sadness and depression they caused. It had no positive side effects. The fracking/shale revolution was caused by greed, high prices that led to innovation to cash in. It would have happened anyway, All the fear mongering did was to scare and depress people. Some probably spent their last years in unnecessary sadness because of it.

And Rockman you are right, I am not going to be fooled again. I am not going to be fooled by "experts" who have never really worked in the field much but claim to understand why American is doomed. "Experts" who never heard of fracking even though it has been around a long time and people like you knew it would be used. I will not believe in "experts" who have no idea about how improvements in imaging are greatly increasing the rate of finds- and that the world isn't even close to being "all drilled". I won't believe in "experts" who don't understand how new technology is just getting started in oil production and how our understanding of oil extraction still has a lot of opportunity for major improvements. A lot of other people are also not going to believe in these "PO experts" too, which is too bad since PO is real and will cause real harm- it just got its reputation destroyed by a bunch of fear mongers posturing as "experts" and making predictions they never had the business making in the first place.

But Rockman- don't blame me for listening to "just some guy out there", that is very unfair to say- what I was listening to, and trusted, was the practically the entire PeakOil community, armed with impressive numbers, charts, well data, etc. saying steep declines were coming fast. That PeakOil was "in the rear view mirror" as TOD put it. You would think an entire movement wouldn't be that wrong- would you?

To be clear- I am not a corny- I believe PO is real but I also believe the PO community should come out a little harder than they do against the "false prophets" who proclaimed steep oil decreases in 2010-2012, $200 a barrel oil by 2012, massive economic collapse. These people caused a lot of damage, the caused a lot of suffering, they wrecked the believability of PO. Most of all, they posed and pretended to be something they were not- "experts". It was a circus act to put it politely and these "clowns" have never been called out by their own.

A respectable field has peer review and self criticism- I find it disturbing that this practice seems so rare among members of the PO community- they behave more like a cult than an organization of learners with high standards of scholarship. Every PO announcement is accepted as gospel truth w/o any peer review criticism. So, yes, I am very disappointed in the majority of the PO community. I think the false prophets should be condemned by the PO community that cares about facts and real science- not fear mongering and self promotion (books, blogs). But sadly I am finding many in the PO community have very low standards when it comes to dealing with their leaders and their statements. This offends me because I actually value real science. I am sorry that more don't.

[Pops]

You started this thread with a business publication's story (note the stock market symbols) about a well that hasn't been completed in a field yet to produce one commercial oil well and point to it as evidence "peak oil experts" are either stupid or liars.

Now you complain there is no "peer review" of internet posting even though it appears your claims have been thougrouly "reviewed" and found wanting. LOL

"false prophets" who proclaimed steep oil decreases in 2010-2012, $200 a barrel oil by 2012, massive economic collapse.

Instead of what the the "false prophets" claimed, we wound up with a capacity squeeze that caused prices to rise to $150 oil by 2008, the largest and longest recession since the depression with many countries either on printing press life support or triaged to the dead zone and over 2 years of the highest average oil prices and E&P expenditures in the history of oil that have produced virtually no growth in production for 7 or 8 years and the tiny increase there has been is due to heroic tight oil drilling in 14 US counties.

Yet you complain the fear mongers scared people! Again, LOL

Of course self-promoters make money writing books on whatever will sell units, so what else is new? Do you believe everything you read?

Here is history, thanks to Matt at CrudeOilPeak, it gives one to think the fear mongers might have been pretty close.





.

[ROCKMAN]

Not that it’s my place to defend or blame (which I don’t) C8 but I am sympathetic to this situation. This is a complex technical issue which even us “experts” have a wide range of opinions expressed as undeniable “facts”.

Which is why even though I’m sure almost everyone here would agree that I’m the Mother of All Experts (or Mother something or other) I try to not be too dogmatic and just stick with the more reliable facts. But even under the best of circumstance with a good geological and engineering data base it’ still easy to be very wrong. Which explains why companies still drill $100 million dry holes in the DW GOM. And we understand that play a heck of lot better than Mozambique.

As I’ve said before there is nothing more dangerous in the oil patch (with the exception of BP) than a geologist who is absolute certain he’s correct. We’ll inundate you with details and facts that will convince anyone that we know exactly what we’re doing.

[dorlomin]

Peak oil does not mean no new oil provinces. Just not enough new oil fields and provinces.

[C8]

Long father's day celebration- lots of fun. Thanks for the replies- especially yours Rockman.

Pops- I'm sorry, I simply don't see a lot of peer review among the PO crowd about each others claims. I see lots of criticism of stories that show seem to contradict the PO argument (my story above was an example) but I rarely, if ever, see PO people criticize anything said that reinforces the PO argument. Can you point some of this peer review criticism out for me?

This is important because without peer review lots of stuff gets passed off that is later found to be wrong. And when stuff is found out to be wrong, this damages the credibility of the discipline. In the last two years I have seen climate scientists gain a great deal more credibility and respectability because their claims are coming to fruition- deniers seem to be on the run. Climate scientists gained credibility because they they mercilessly criticize each other to make sure things are done professionally. Meanwhile PO has pretty much lost credibility among most people. I think it is a mistake to say that this is because of a media conspiracy, as many Peak Oilers seem to think. Quite simply, the Peak Oil predictions of 2003-11 never came true and people hate to be scared and then realize it was unnecessary. I read a lot of books and website during that time, it seemed like an echo chamber and dissenters were attacked mercilessly. It didn't seem professional or scientific at all. I would like more Peak oilers to take this subject in a more skeptical manner and develop a strong internal discipline- but the field still seems dominated by hucksters and doomers.

1. Do you disagree with my view that the PO crowd seems very uncritical of claims made by other Peak Oilers? 2. Where are the threads on this site that call out the sloppy analysis of peak oilers?
3. Why is that someone who criticizes PO fairly gets attacked while someone who makes wild exaggerations in favor of PO is given a pass?

I just want the field to become more professional and regain credibility. Is this a field where that can't happen?

(BTW- in response to your point about oil prices as proof of PO- the main driver of high oil prices today is the massive increase in demand by China, without that growth I believe oil would be at $60-70 a gallon today. I always felt that the definition of PO as "supply not being able to meet demand" is a very sloppy and unscientific one. Demand is a continuum based on price- it is not a single unit- it is a demand curve. Therefore the supply not being able to meet demand definition is inherently flawed and not provable- this is what I mean by unscientific, sloppy thinking. Supply is always meeting demand at a particular price.)

Pstarr- yes I am angry! And you should be too! Anger shows you care, that you want to make the world better. I don't want to be a person who just "acts cool" while people are preyed on, that is not living- that is just existing- it is a form of death before you die- I say stand for something with some passion. I did not make a bad decision as a result of PO but know people who suffered a lot from the merchants of PO doom. I feel the future is unwritten and may be good or bad- with many surprises too. I think corny's are wrong- but at least they don't cause the level of fear and despair in people that doomers do. I feel it is shameful that so many in the PO community, tolerate, withhold criticism and even support doomers- that's not scientific at all. Where is the peer (not corny) criticism within the PO community? Where is the rigor? is there even any desire at all to become a scientific community or simply be a tribe of people who share the same faith? I see very little peer criticism.

[Beery1]

Peak oil does not mean no new oil provinces. Just not enough new oil fields and provinces.

Now there's the truth in a nutshell. The thing is, there may still be a field bigger than Ghawar out there. The problem is that we need one of those to turn up almost every year in order to keep oil production from declining. There is simply no way that's going to happen.

[ROCKMAN]

C8 – As far as putting much faith in peer review I’ll just offer my very HO: I’ve seen analysis in the oil patch done by truly brilliant folks using many gigabytes of detailed data run thru some of the most sophisticated software developed. And they have still been proven wrong more often than most outsiders would believe. I work with a group that easily qualifies as I just described. And I don’t accept anything they offer as “fact”. They are just interpretations with varying levels of probability..

I wasn’t kidding about the amount of effort, time, expertise and capex that goes into the generation of a $100 million Deep Water GOM well. And they still drill some of them as dusters

[SeaGypsy]

C8, I don't recall any PO pundits foretelling the eventuality of every major economy in the world going into full on money printing in order to stave off the inevitable. Prediction of complex systems outcomes is an art, not a science. Here we are talking about the most complex system imaginable and it's key input becoming gradually scarcer. The experts vary from the highly science oriented to the socially focused, less and more artistic in their predictions. PO and it's effects are the epic of our era, to likely be followed by climate change and it's effects. A massive and hugely complex field of interest.