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Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Aug 2008, 09:12:07

JohnDenver said:

Image
Greetings from Jason Schwarz, asshats!


Mr. Schwarz knew that some IB was going to dump a bunch of its CR portfolio. Prices fell to $111. That does not change a thing. World oil production has been flat for four years, in spite of record prices. World spare capacity is ZERO, and has been for five years. The world’s greatest oil fields are in terminal decline, and no one is finding new Ghawars. The world economy is in a downward spiral that can not be stopped.

It certainly is heartening to see someone cheerleading the onset of the next Greatest Depression. Cheer on JD.

The asshats are the numerous folks in here who ignorantly failed to heed the warning, and got financially reamed.


The asshats are the fools that can’t correlate the facts with realility. The banking system has lost $470 billion in the last year and they have at least $3 trillion to go, assets are losing at least $10 trillion in value per year, and the entire world’s economy is shutting down. Autos, banking, real estate, airlines, shipping, and consumer spending are collapsing.

A little more good news like what we have seen lately and the best business recommendation that mr. schwarz will be able to give will be to open a funeral parlor.

Sometimes it is hard to tell if a man is blind - or just stupid!
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 16 Aug 2008, 09:20:48

dohboi wrote:But if we only make changes because of price signals, we will never get very far ahead of the game for long. Just as we adjust to new usage pattern and as we think price will now reduce to more comfortable levels, we will be bitch-slapped with another sudden doubling of price over a very few months. This see-sawing will continue to be very hard on businesses, consumers, and all of those trying to build really significant long-term alternatives to an oil-based economy.


Ack, in Cur's latest thread I bemoaned the fact that, unlike with natural disasters, people weren't ready to prepare with fuel price shocks/shortages because they were too infrequent...need to go out and pull some weeds, get some fresh air...

That will be a tipping point, when price shock #4 or 5 comes around. Danny Boy already pronounced this latest one The Third Great Oil Shock. You speak In Chapter Titles, Saheeb. Oh, and We've Hit Peak Demand. Uh Huh! :roll:
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Aug 2008, 10:17:46

TheDude said:

Ack, in Cur's latest thread I bemoaned the fact that, unlike with natural disasters, people weren't ready to prepare with fuel price shocks/shortages because they were too infrequent...need to go out and pull some weeds, get some fresh air...

That will be a tipping point, when price shock #4 or 5 comes around. Danny Boy already pronounced this latest one The Third Great Oil Shock. You speak In Chapter Titles, Saheeb. Oh, and We've Hit Peak Demand. Uh Huh!


Until the world goes into a its long term economic decline off 3.5 to 5%, Available Energy, we will see whipsawing of the energy markets. This will come about because of insufficient spare capacity. Much like what we are presently seeing in oil, coal, and (for infrastructure reasons), NG.

When it is realized that the size of the recent volatility in oil has been greater than its price has been for the last 150 years, it is reasonable to assume that what we are presently seeing is just a highly over stressed supply situation. Of course, this can’t continue and won’t. The world’s economies will go into a permanent decline, which will lead to stable, but higher prices (if someone doesn’t start WW III)!

The recent volatility has been the result of large investors jockeying to reduce the effects of large loses from a fractured credit market. It is not an indication of where oil is heading, it is an indication of where the monetary/financial system is going. Anyone who is cheerleading the recent spectacular collapse in oil prices, should realize, that what they are doing is dancing at their own funeral!
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 16 Aug 2008, 10:46:32

Yeah. What's to take heart from here? Lower prices will increase demand and drive prices right back up again; people will go back to solo car commuting and MT ridership will be back down, any new projects for buses/LR will be downgraded in priority, as will motivation for automakers to increase MPG or develop expensive (PH)EV models. Their stock will be downgraded for foolishly having abandon all that LDV manufacturing.
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 21 Feb 2009, 23:40:27

Thought I'd bump up this old thread to report about another new Asian refinery coming online.

>>> Bloomberg <<<
Vietnam Opens First Oil Refinery, Overcoming Foreign Criticism
By Jason Folkmanis and Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam opens its first oil refinery today, overcoming the withdrawal of foreign partners including Total SA, and international criticism that the $3 billion project is in the wrong place and won’t boost the economy.

The 148,000 barrel-a-day plant, located at Dung Quat Bay in the central province of Quang Ngai, away from the main industrial hubs and offshore oil fields, opens at a time of excess supply in refined products and slumping crude prices.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 21 Feb 2009, 23:45:11

Carlhole wrote:Personally, I'm amazed that anyone believes that oil could reach $30 - 50. But how would I feel when it does? What would my portfolio look like? Ouch!

BTW I'm wondering what Carlhole's portfolio is looking like these days. :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby Last_Laff » Sun 22 Feb 2009, 07:48:35

OilFinder2 wrote:
Carlhole wrote:Personally, I'm amazed that anyone believes that oil could reach $30 - 50. But how would I feel when it does? What would my portfolio look like? Ouch!

BTW I'm wondering what Carlhole's portfolio is looking like these days. :lol:

AFAIK, comparing him to you, you got none along with the lies through your teeth, or fingers in this case.
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 23 Feb 2009, 21:28:37

emersonbiggins wrote:
Jason Schwarz, Options Strategist, Lone Peak Asset Mgmt wrote: This oil spike was a bubble fueled by a group of deceived investment speculators who failed to account for adaptable demand destruction from consumers. The technology to replace oil already exists and high oil prices merely provide the necessary motivation to bring these products to market.


Is anyone else getting tired of the announcer calling the winner of the ballgame in the middle of the 2nd inning?

Or maybe this article was sent to us from far in the future, where some of the things he's talking about might have actually taken place?

:roll:


Hi emerson, this is John Denver writing to you from 6 months in the future. The ballgame is now in the 8th inning, and it turns out that Jason Schwarz was correct . All of the things he was talking about came to pass, and you were the one exposed as an asshat. Time to insert your :roll: into your [smilie=pottytrain2.gif]
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 00:15:55

OilFinder2 wrote:
Carlhole wrote:Personally, I'm amazed that anyone believes that oil could reach $30 - 50. But how would I feel when it does? What would my portfolio look like? Ouch!

BTW I'm wondering what Carlhole's portfolio is looking like these days. :lol:


Horrible!

But I'm hanging on to my APWR and accumulating still. It's the only stock I own at present.

I shouldn't have used the word "portfolio" in my post back in August. I don't have much of one. But I do buy and sell stocks and took a hit last year.
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 00:16:57

Ah, I see. Well, better luck next time. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrol glut spells bleak years for Asian refiners

Unread postby joyfulbozo » Tue 14 Oct 2014, 03:41:06

Japan and Europe might each see some half a million bpd of capacity shut in coming years....
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