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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 19:09:22

AdamB wrote:You continually moving the goal posts ......


???????

You sure complain a lot.

As far as I'm concerned we're just chatting about various things here.

For some reason you got really wound up about my post referring to Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil shale resource in the Permian Basin which is described in the 2013 article from the Oil and Gas Journal that I linked to in my post above.

Now you say you agree with the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that discusses Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil resource in the Permian Basin.

Sounds like we've come to a point of agreement. I'm OK with that.

Have a great day!

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 19:55:30

Plantagenet wrote:For some reason you got really wound up about my post referring to Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil shale resource in the Permian Basin which is described in the 2013 article from the Oil and Gas Journal that I linked to in my post above.


I am aware that I refuted about every claim you made that you now want to pretend was covered by OGJ. Not the goal post moving claims, but the ones you started with.

Plantagenet wrote:Now you say you agree with the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that discusses Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil resource in the Permian Basin.

Sounds like we've come to a point of agreement. I'm OK with that.


So we can all agree that OGJ wrote an article, and it certainly doesn't have much to do with all the hyperbole that you then rolled into the topic on your own, sure. Progress!

You might have the luxury of saying whatever comes to your mind, regardless of the history of the basin, who and how and what was developed, but I don't. So maybe I am overly sensitive to people just saying whatever pops into their head and pretending it is true.

Why all the trolling on this topic?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 20:18:57

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Now you say you agree with the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that discusses Pioneer's leading role in developing the tight oil resource in the Permian Basin.

Sounds like we've come to a point of agreement. I'm OK with that.


So we can all agree that OGJ wrote an article, and it certainly doesn't have much to do with all the hyperbole that you then rolled into the topic on your own, sure.


Yes theres been some hyberbole in our discussion but its been on both sides.

For instance you argued that some wells drilled 50 years ago in the Permian Basin are still productive, so today's production isn't anything new. But those wells from 50 years ago were drilled in a few limited areas where it was possible to produce oil using the methods available 50 years ago. AND after 50 years the few wells that remain active today are most likely stripper wells, with extremely minimal production. Thats clearly a very different thing then the thousands of horizontal wells being drilled and fracked wherever tight oil shales occur across the entire Permian basin by Pioneer and other companies --- wells that today produce over a million barrels of oil per day from tight shales that previously were thought to be unproductive.

Its exactly the same history in the Bakken. There were a few wells drilled decades ago that produced oil from the Bakken. But it wasn't until modern horizontal drilling and fracking methods were introduced that it was possible to produce oil from the tight shales throughout the Bakken formation.

I think we should just agree on what we agree on, and if the only thing we can agree on is the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that I linked to in my post above because it mentions Pioneer's early efforts to produce oil from tight oil shale during 2009-11 in the Permian basin, then thats OK.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 20:50:47

There's an excellent book that discusses how modern fracking and horizontal drilling methods have unlocked millions of barrels of oil production each day in the Bakken, Permian Basin, etc.

I suggest you might want to check out this book. Its goes into a lot more depth on this subject then I can here.

Boom-How-Fracking-Ignited-American-Revolution-Changed-World

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Russell Gold, a brilliant and dogged investigative reporter at The Wall Street Journal, has spent more than a decade reporting on one of the biggest stories of our time: the spectacular, world-changing rise of “fracking.” Recognized as a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize and a recipient of the Gerald Loeb Award for his work, Gold has traveled along the pipelines and into the hubs of this country’s energy infrastructure; he has visited frack sites from Texas to North Dakota; and he has conducted thousands of interviews with engineers and wildcatters, CEOs and roughnecks, environmentalists and politicians. He has also sifted through reams of engineering reports, lawsuit transcripts, and financial filings. The result is an essential book—a commanding piece of journalism, an astounding study of human ingenuity, and an epic work of storytelling.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:46:09

Plantagenet wrote:Yes theres been some hyberbole in our discussion but its been on both sides.

For instance you argued that some wells drilled 50 years ago in the Permian Basin are still productive, so today's production isn't anything new.


Historical facts aren't argument. They just are. You can have all the speculative conclusions you wish, you don't get to make up facts.

Plantagenet wrote:But those wells from 50 years ago were drilled in a few limited areas where it was possible to produce oil using the methods available 50 years ago.


Agreed. Horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing both having been available prior to 1967. 15,000+ horizontals, as best the information services know. FrackFocus doesn't have records that far back, but there were already 100,000 hydraulic completion documented by Hubbert in 1955. Yes...that Hubbert.

Plantagenet wrote: AND after 50 years the few wells that remain active today are most likely stripper wells, with extremely minimal production.


A stripper well isn't defined as = "extremely minimal production", whatever the hell that might mean to someone who thought that horizontals were introduced into the Permian only in the last decade.

Plantagenet wrote:Its exactly the same history in the Bakken. There were a few wells drilled decades ago that produced oil from the Bakken. But it wasn't until modern horizontal drilling and fracking methods were introduced that it was possible to produce oil from the tight shales throughout the Bakken formation.


Your second and third sentences contradict each other. You don't get to pretend that the beginning of an S-curve of development is somehow different than what naturally follows, and yet that is what you are continually attempting to do. You need to throw in the concept of economics, rather than pretending that something just didn't exist at one point, and suddenly does at another. lt is no different than claiming shale production is something new, rather than just another rock formation development dating back to at least 1825.

Plantagenet wrote:I think we should just agree on what we agree on, and if the only thing we can agree on is the 2013 article in the Oil and Gas Journal that I linked to in my post above because it mentions Pioneer's early efforts to produce oil from tight oil shale during 2009-11 in the Permian basin, then thats OK.
---------------------------------------------

Cheers!


I agree that the OGJ article says whatever it says. I agree that the references I provided understand that Pioneer didn't discover tight oil production in the WOlfcamp in the Permian, obviously the USGS did.

You can take reporters at their word, have you ever actually been the source for a resource/reserve based story? I have. All too often I have provided exactly the facts available and seen them screw the entire mess into the ground in a manner similar to what you have attempted, using that OGJ article. I just don't sit still for it anymore.

We can agree that Pioneer is playing a big part in the Permian basin resurgence. But it has nothing to do with new discoveries, new technology, being the first at something. It has everything to do with the acreage held by the two companies that merged to form Pioneer, and their more recent change in focus from international and GOM development to that established acreage.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 15:49:57

Apparently Mr. Gold didn't speak to any oil field hands that were involved in the massive amounts of frac'ng that was done decades before the recent period he focused on. And that includes multistage fracs in horizontal wells. The technology was readily available long before the recent shale boom. What was missing was a higher price of oil required to justify its application:

"The definition of a massive hydraulic fracturing varies somewhat, but is generally used for treatments injecting greater than about 300,000 pounds of proppant.] Pan American Petroleum applied the first massive hydraulic fracturing treatment to a well in Stephens County, Oklahoma in 1968. The treatment injected half a million pounds of proppant into the rock formation.In 1973, Amoco introduced massive hydraulic fracturing to the Wattenberg Gas Field of the Denver Basin of Colorado, to recover gas from the l ow-permeability J Sandstone. Amoco performed the first million-pound frac job, injecting more than a million pounds of proppant into the J Sand of a well in Wattenberg Field. The success of massive hydraulic fracturing in the Wattenberg Field of Colorado was followed in the late 1970s by its use in gas wells drilled to tight sandstones of the Mesaverde Group of the Piceance Basin of western Colorado.

Starting in the 1970s. thousands of tight-sandstone gas wells in the US were stimulated by massive hydraulic fracturing. Examples of areas made economic by the technology include the Clinton-Medina Sandstone play in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York; the San Juan Basin in New Mexico and Colorado; numerous fields in the Green River Basin of Wyoming; and the Cotton Valley Sandstone trend of Louisiana and Texas."

And horizontal well frac'ng: "The combination of horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing was pioneered in Texas’ Austin Chalk play in the 1980s. Stephen Holdich, head of the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University, commented: “In fact, the Austin Chalk is the model for modern shale development methods.” The Austin Chalk play started in 1981 with vertical wells, but died with the decline in the oil price in 1982. In 1983, Maurer Engineering designed the equipment to drill the first medium-range horizontal well in the Austin Chalk. Horizontal drilling revived the play by increasing production, and lengths of the horizontal parts of the wellbores grew with greater experience and improvements in drilling technology. Union Pacific Resources, since absorbed by Anadarko Petroleum, entered the Austin Chalk play in a major way in 1987, and drilled more than a thousand horizontal wells in the Austin Chalk."

In the early 90's horizontal drilling in the oil window of the Austin Chalk was the biggest play on the planet. FYI: essentially the Austin Chalk is a carbonate shale. The same hz drilling equipment used in the recent shale play was used in the 90's. And the frac trucks used date back at least to the 80's.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 17:52:14

AdamB wrote:you don't get to make up facts.


Of course not. And neither do you.

AdamB wrote:A stripper well isn't defined as = "extremely minimal production".


There you go again, making up facts.

Stripper wells actually are defined as wells with very minimal production. Minimal production is the actual criteria used to differentiate stripper wells from more productive oil wells and to define what a stripper well is.

Here's what the National Stripper Well Association has to say about stripper wells: Stripper Well For tax purposes, a stripper well is defined as any oil ... well .... whose maximum daily average oil production does not exceed 15 bbls of oil,

I suppose I better explain to you what the definition mean, so you don't keep arguing. OK, pay attention now--- the definition means that oil wells whose oil production is so minimal that it doesn't exceed 15 bbls a day are called "stripper wells."

Get it now?

-------------------------------------------------------------

Your kvetching is starting to become repetitive. You do the exact same thing over and over again when you comment.

This time you didn't know the meaning of the basic term "stripper well" so you start arguing about it. This is almost identical to your earlier silly posts arguing over the meaning of the terms "discovery" and "discovery well".

Rather then getting all wee-wee'd up because you don't know what the terms mean why don't you just look them up so you understand what the terms mean before you post? The meaning of these terms in the oil biz is somewhat different then in general usage, so be sure to access a glossary of oil field terms or something similar. Or just ask what the terms mean before you start arguing. There are lots of people here with experience in the oil biz who will be happy to help you out. A lot of your arguments would go away if you just took a moment to learn what the terms mean before you post.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 18:08:46

ROCKMAN wrote: The technology was readily available long before the recent shale boom. What was missing was a higher price of oil required to justify its application:


Not really.

Yes, there was fracking back in the 1950s, but the development of super high pressure pumps, slick water muds, and very very long horizontal wells is a more recent development. The technology to frack shales didn't suddenly appear when oil prices jumped up in 2008-2009----it started about 10 years earlier when the price of oil and NG was much lower. According to Gold and others who have studied this, you can trace the development of modern approaches to fracking shale back about two decades.

In 1997, Nick Steinsberger, an engineer of Mitchell Energy (now part of Devon Energy), applied the slickwater fracturing technique, using more water and higher pump pressure than previous fracturing techniques, which was used in East Texas by Union Pacific Resources (now part of Anadarko Petroleum Corporation), in the Barnett Shale of north Texas.[33] In 1998, the new technique proved to be successful when the first 90 days gas production from the well called S.H. Griffin No. 3 exceeded production of any of the company's previous wells.[37][38] This new completion technique made gas extraction widely economical in the Barnett Shale, and was later applied to other shales.[39][40][41] George P. Mitchell has been called the "father of fracking" because of his role in applying it in shales.[42]

---from the Wikipedia article on hydraulic fracking

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 23:37:17

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:A stripper well isn't defined as = "extremely minimal production".


There you go again, making up facts.


Your lack of ability when it comes to defining something is not my issue.

Plantagenet wrote:Stripper wells actually are defined as wells with very minimal production. Minimal production is the actual criteria used to differentiate stripper wells from more productive oil wells and to define what a stripper well is.

Here's what the National Stripper Well Association has to say about stripper wells: Stripper Well For tax purposes, a stripper well is defined as any oil ... well .... whose maximum daily average oil production does not exceed 15 bbls of oil,


I know what a stripper well is. It isn't "extremely minimal production". Thanks for proving that those who know the generally accepted definition don't use those words.

Next time maybe you can look up the correct words to use prior to proving that you don't know them off the top of your head?

Plantagenet wrote:I suppose I better explain to you what the definition mean, so you don't keep arguing. OK, pay attention now--- the definition means that oil wells whose oil production is so minimal that it doesn't exceed 15 bbls a day are called "stripper wells."

Get it now?


I got it from the beginning. Hence me knowing that you couldn't even describe stripper well correctly.

Is there anything else you would like to write incorrectly that I can help you with by pointing out where you are wrong so you can go look up the correct information and then pretend you knew all along?

Plantagenet wrote:
This time you didn't know the meaning of the basic term "stripper well" so you start arguing about it. This is almost identical to your earlier silly posts arguing over the meaning of the terms "discovery" and "discovery well".


Your inability to learn the definitions prior to using the words (or worse yet not even knowing the history of an important basin prior to pretending you do) is not an indication of what I don't know, as you have so ably demonstrated.

Plantagenet wrote: There are lots of people here with experience in the oil biz who will be happy to help you out. A lot of your arguments would go away if you just took a moment to learn what the terms mean before you post.


Sort of like Rockdoc filling in yet more information on how Pioneer didn't invent anything related to horizontal fracturing or hydraulic completions? You really should spend a wee bit more time learning the basics prior to pretending it is those who already have that are the ones getting it wrong.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 00:20:41

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Here's what the National Stripper Well Association has to say about stripper wells: Stripper Well For tax purposes, a stripper well is defined as any oil ... well .... whose maximum daily average oil production does not exceed 15 bbls of oil,


Next time maybe you can look up the correct words to use


???????

Your post does't make any sense.

In fact I did look up the correct words to use---I quoted the definition of a stripper well directly from the National Stripper Well Association.

The definition does vary slightly by legal jurisdiction---for instance in Oklahoma stripper wells are defined as wells that production less than 10 bbls per day. I think the oil and gas commission in Texas uses the same definition as Oklahoma.

ok.gov: MarginalWells

IMHO the National Stripper Well Association and the various state oil and gas commissions know a lot more about stripper wells then you do---so if its all right with you I will continue to take their definition as being correct. :lol: 8) :roll:

Get it now?

Sheesh! :lol: 8) :roll: :lol: 8) :roll: :lol: 8) :roll: :lol: 8) :roll: :lol: 8) :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:32:33

Plantagenet wrote:IMHO the National Stripper Well Association and the various state oil and gas commissions know a lot more about stripper wells then you do---so if its all right with you I will continue to take their definition as being correct. :lol: 8) :roll:


I know that not a one of them defined stripper wells as "extremely minimal production".

But you didn't.

I'm glad you learned something, even if it was only using google. Try it first next time.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:22:05

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:IMHO the National Stripper Well Association and the various state oil and gas commissions know a lot more about stripper wells then you do---so if its all right with you I will continue to take their definition as being correct. :lol: 8) :roll:


I know that not a one of them defined stripper wells as "extremely minimal production".


I didn't define stripper wells as "extremely minimal production"---thats how I described them.

A description and a definition are two different things.

Another term for an oil stripper well is a "marginal" well. Guess why they are marginal? They are marginal because their oil production is minimal. Get it now?

Oh gosh---now I've used the words"marginal", "definition" and "description" and you won't know what those words mean either.

After several days of your nonsensical quibbling over words whose meaning you don't know, I feel like I'm running a remedial English class for you. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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OK class. Today's words are "marginal", "definition" and "description"

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 15:57:26

Plantagenet wrote:After several days of your nonsensical quibbling over words whose meaning you don't know, I feel like I'm running a remedial English class for you. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Cheers!


Cheers Plant.

The next time you need any help with how this stuff works, just feel free to ask.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 16:42:11

Wood MacKenzie Consultants suggests oil production from tight shale in the Permian may peak by 2021

US-Shales-Most-Productive-Play-May-Peak-By-2021

Conventional production around the world has already peaked. If unconventional oil production also peaks, then its time to be concerned again about reaching the overall peak in global oil production.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 22:32:19

Plantagenet wrote:Wood MacKenzie Consultants suggests oil production from tight shale in the Permian may peak by 2021

US-Shales-Most-Productive-Play-May-Peak-By-2021

Conventional production around the world has already peaked. If unconventional oil production also peaks, then its time to be concerned again about reaching the overall peak in global oil production.

Cheers!


Fortunate indeed then that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry production doesn't define the world's availability of light, tight oil! The article referenced doesn't claim that global production of oil will peak with the Permian, but then they probably know that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry formations aren't the sum total of light tight oil yet to be produced!!!

And does it matter, if peak demand as envisioned by Amy Jaffe and Tony Seba comes to fruition in 2017 rather than a few years from now?

Maybe 2017 is peak demand!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 23:17:44

AdamB wrote:The article referenced doesn't claim that global production of oil will peak with the Permian, but then they probably know that the Permian Wolfcamp and Spraberry formations aren't the sum total of light tight oil yet to be produced


Like many people, you don't know even know what peak oil means. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Peak Oil isn't about the "sum total of ....oil yet to be produced" .

Peak Oil is about the RATE of oil production through time, i.e. global oil production will eventually attain a peak rate of production and then decline :!: :idea: :!: :idea: :)

Conventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.

The Bakken tight shale play also already peaked in ca. 2015.

the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-bakken-shale-play

Now some are predicting the Permian tight shale play will also peak in a few years, i.e. ca. 2020-21.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:32:07

Plantagenet wrote:Conventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.

Mmmmh, No. Of course, conventional oil/NGL reservoirs didn't provide the 10 MMbbls/d production rates increase of the last ten years, but outside North America's oil sands and shale, there was an increase of 4 MMbbls/d.

The Bakken tight shale play also already peaked in ca. 2015.

Production rates are finally raising again (since june). But there is a catch. Unlike other plays, the DUC count have decreased, and the rig count, up in the first half of 2017, is decreasing a little bit... I'm not exactly sure what it means, but my guess would be that there is not a lot of places to drill, and they have to go through the backlog of DUCs as there is no other options.

So, Bakken may have peak... But still has some shells to shoot. Eagle Ford production is also stagnant. If compare the production between oct 2016 and oct 2017 (eia), we see that the Permian account for 70% of the increase (+481kb/d) while Bakken (+36.3kb/d) and Eagle Ford (+40.6kb/d) are behind Anadarko (+43.6kb/d) and Niorbara (+86kb/d).

Safe to say that on a production rate basis, it's the Permian that leads the dance... And will set the LTO peak.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:55:21

tita wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Conventional oil production rates peaked about 10 years ago.


Mmmmh, No.


Mmmmh, Yes.

Global Conventional Oil Production has been on a "bumpy plateau" of between 72-74 million bbls per day since ca. 2005.

conventional-crude-oil-production

tita wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The Bakken tight shale play also already peaked in ca. 2015.


So, Bakken may have peaked...


Of course. Every oil field will peak eventually. And, since production in the Bakken peaked in 2015 and then declined, and since it hasn't recovered, it appears the Bakken already peaked in 2015.

tita wrote:Safe to say that on a production rate basis, it's the Permian that leads the dance... And will set the LTO peak.


Exactly right. Thats my point here.

Thats why I started this thread. Conventional oil production has peaked. The Bakken has peaked. And insiders are predicting the Permian will peak ca. 2020-2021.

If conventional oil has already peaked, and LTO oil peaks ca. 2020-21, then that will mark global peak oil.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:23:58

world conv crude.gif
world conv crude.gif (28.54 KiB) Viewed 4649 times
The Energy Matters piece says

"That limit was breached in December 2014 with a new high of 74.28 Mbpd."

I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.

It's possible that a large field might decline rapidly, but most supergiant fields at managed very carefully and Canterell is likely to be a special case that is unlikely to be repeated. A peak by 2020 is possible, but I would put it at less than a 5% probability.
My expectation is there is a 50% probability the peak will be between 2025 and 2030 for the 12 month centered average of World C+C output, with a 25% probability it will occur before 2025 and a 25% probability it will occur after 2030, and about a 5% probability it will occur after 2035.

It is simpler to talk about C+C rather than "conventional" oil, much easier to find the data.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:36:08

dcoyne78 wrote:
I have also looked at this and if conventional oil is defined as Euan Mearns defines it and we use annual data then 2016 was the peak at 73.2 Mb/d for conventional output.


Sure, that seems reasonable. But the 2016 conventional peak is just slightly higher then the level conventional oil production has been at since 2005. To me it looks like just another bump on the bumpy plateau.

dcoyne78 wrote:It's possible that a large field might decline rapidly, but most supergiant fields at managed very carefully and Canterell is likely to be a special case that is unlikely to be repeated.


I have to disagree with you there. It really doesn't matter how "carefully" a supergiant field is managed-----the rapid declines are a function of the secondary and tertiary recovery technologies that are being used now rather then any carelessness on the part of the operators. For instance, look at Ghawar. Saudi Aramco and their contractors are very carefully injecting sea water into the base of the reservoir, flushing and lifting the oil up to the top where it is produced. By doing this they have been able to sustain production at near peak levels for decades now. But once that water/oil contact rises high enough to reach the producing zones, the rate of oil production is going to decline because there just won't be much recoverable oil left in the reservoir. And, IMHO it will decline very rapidly, just like Cantarell declined very rapidly.


dcoyne78 wrote: A peak by 2020 is possible, but I would put it at less than a 5% probability.
My expectation is there is a 50% probability the peak will be between 2025 and 2030 for the 12 month centered average of World C+C output, with a 25% probability it will occur before 2025 and a 25% probability it will occur after 2030, and about a 5% probability it will occur after 2035..


You may well be right.

I picked the 2020 date for this thread because some industry insiders are now suggesting that the Permian may peak ca. 2020-2021. But I agree with you that the peak could easily come several years later.

Time will tell. CHEERS!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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