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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 10:13:59

Plantagenet wrote:I may be wrong, but I don't see Venezuela's tar sands becoming a major source of new oil any time soon.

Cheers!

I don't see it either. Mostly because of the low investments in the last 15 years. But I wouldn't bet that Venezuela only have oil similar to tar sands to develop. There is probably a lot of opportunities that interest oil firms.

But this needs a government less stubborn to let oil firms develop oil fields. And this will take quite some time.

And the problem is social idealism (or social fascism), not socialism... Firing thousands of qualified employees that were on strike was not a social action. This was probably the starting point of the ruin of the country. 15 years of mismanagement won't be recovered in just 1-2 years.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Cog » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 10:52:20

If there is oil in the world, its going to get used. You doomers fascinate me with your insights.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 11:10:03

But this needs a government less stubborn to let oil firms develop oil fields. And this will take quite some time.

And the problem is social idealism (or social fascism), not socialism... Firing thousands of qualified employees that were on strike was not a social action. This was probably the starting point of the ruin of the country. 15 years of mismanagement won't be recovered in just 1-2 years.


I remember the last time that Venezuela came back from a nationalized industry to being open to foreign participation. It was back in the late nineties and famously called Apertura Petrolera (petroleum opening). It was a crazed feeding frenzy. I didn't attend the bid round event in Caracas but several of my colleagues did. The bidding bonuses offered were so far beyond anything anyone had seen to that time as to be absurd (if I remember correctly Lasmo offered $450 MM as a signature bonus; needless to say they are no longer in business). Every oil company you could imagine participated in that bid round as there was a lot of prospectivity outside of the heavy oil. I point this out because after Chavez began to twist the arms of the foreign companies in the mid-2000's pretty much all new activity stopped. During the period of the "great opening" almost no new exploration was accomplished, companies who had gained concessions in the bid round were still doing the evaluation of these blocks when they were summarily dismissed. In the interim PDVSA has conducted almost zero exploration not having any budget as their cash flow was directed to fund Chavez' social programs. That means there is still a lot of conventional oil and gas opportunities available.

A lot of the PDVSA senior folks left the country when Chavez declared many of them traitors to the cause. A few of them had successful oil and gas businesses elsewhere (eg. Pacific Rubiales in Colombia was founded by several former PDVSA management). Having spoken with a few of these gentlemen over the years it was clear they were chomping at the bit for Chavez to leave so they could return and chase some of the opportunities that they were more than familiar with.

Given the above, my guess is once the industry is opened again it will be a mass migration of all the international oil and gas companies with any familiarity in the region.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 14:37:15

the problem is social idealism (or social fascism), not socialism...


Of course its socialism---its Cuban style socialism. Chavez and Maduro modeled their revolution on the Cuban revolution, and Cuban advisors are helping them with each disastrous policy they implement.


...15 years of mismanagement won't be recovered in just 1-2 years.


Exactly right. And the mismanagement isn't over yet. Maduro just filed again to run for another term as El Presidente. And since his socialist cronies control the government, the economy, the media, the military and the streets, almost certainly socialism will continue to be implemented in Venezuela, no matter how disastrous it is for the Venezuelan economy.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 20:08:51

Subjectivist wrote:Don't forget Venezuela alone has over a TRILLION barrels of heavy and extra heavy oil, basically the same stuff Canada gets out of the tar sands and sells millions of barrels of a day. They also have the advantage of tropical weather making it easier to pump the stuff in the September through April period every year.

This is a huge resource and if the world needs regime change and moder refineries to make use of it I expect that to happen when really needed.


The catch is that a global capitalist economy driven by increasing energy returns needs the opposite of heavy oil.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:03:12

ralfy wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Don't forget Venezuela alone has over a TRILLION barrels of heavy and extra heavy oil, basically the same stuff Canada gets out of the tar sands and sells millions of barrels of a day. They also have the advantage of tropical weather making it easier to pump the stuff in the September through April period every year.

This is a huge resource and if the world needs regime change and moder refineries to make use of it I expect that to happen when really needed.


The catch is that a global capitalist economy driven by increasing energy returns needs the opposite of heavy oil.


Wrong. The global capitalist economy wants manufactured products, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel. They don't give a crap what it is made from, heavy oil, light oil, natural gas, kerogen baked into oil, hydrates, whatever. Pick up a book on chemical engineering sometime, I dare you. Break free from your astrologers ideas on...anything...I have faith in you! You can break free from needing a father figure, I promise!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 18:15:25

Wow, oil rig count increases by 12, with 18 new rigs just for the permian... which indeed means 6 less rigs for the others basins. Although prices are at their highest levels since 2014, there is not much increase of interest outside the permian.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 18:46:41

tita wrote:Wow, oil rig count increases by 12, with 18 new rigs just for the permian... which indeed means 6 less rigs for the others basins. Although prices are at their highest levels since 2014, there is not much increase of interest outside the permian.


Yup.

Thats just what I've been saying.

The Bakken and every other TOS play in the USA except the Permian have already peaked. The only US TOS play left that can increase oil production is the Permian. And analysts say even the Permian is going to peak in ca. 2020.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:35:07

Remember that a vast amount of the shales in North America are gas prone. The actual liquids windows are relatively narrow. As a result if oil prices rise and gas prices don't there is not going to be a sudden rise in activity except in the select areas where the liquid yield is high enough to offset the costs of drilling for cheap gas. Notwithstanding, you also have to remember that companies want to see a sustained price before they react, budgets are set on that. There is much less knee jerk reaction in the industry than you would think
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 18:09:51

Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby dissident » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 23:08:56

Plantagenet wrote:Decline rates from current oil production are now the highest in 25 years

oil-demand-beware-the-gap

Partly this is due to the fact that TOS has very high decline rates, and partly due to the fact that the legacy fields around the world are declining rapidly as they age.

Higher decline rates just make it all the more difficult to continue growing global oil production to meet growing global oil demand, as new oil production must grow both to meet rising demand AND to replace existing production lost to declines of 3-6% and higher each year.

Eventually this will lead to a peak in global oil production.

Cheers!


The current plateau will end with a violent crash. The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak. This ain't happening.
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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 00:21:21

The rate of maximal contact drilling is sucking out the last dregs of accessible oil resources. Given the lack of any substantial discoveries of new reserves, this implies a rapid decline. New discoveries are needed to broaden the production curve after peak.


Well first off, maximum reservoir contact wells refers to what some people call "fish scale" wells where there is a main hole with a number of lateral wells which kick off along the length of the main well. They were pioneered in Saudi Arabia in horizontal wells and have been used in Malaysia in vertical holes but they are not widely used (if at all) in unconventional wells that require fracking simply because the isolation of pressure into individual sidetracks is technically challenging and expensive.

Also current recovery factor in the shales is somewhere between 3% and 8% compared to conventional reservoirs with Tertiary recoveries that can exceed 70%. It doesn't require much improvement in recovery factor to gain a lot of reserves.

Also I have explained elsewhere where what you read about Reserves almost always refers to Proven Reserves. Without knowing how much Probable and Possible and Contingent Resources are associated with various pools it is impossible to predict when full depletion will occur. This is why companies can replace their reserves year on year....simply moving categories as they drill more wells or complete more standing wells.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 22:36:05

MIT study warns that EIA estimates of future productivity from TOS wells are too optimistic.

mit-researchers-us-oil-production-estimates-may-be-too-optimistic

The MIT researchers are highlighting the same issue that I've discussed earlier in this thread, i.e. that drillers in the Bakken, Permian Basin, and other TOS regions are drilling the "sweet spots" first. Wells in these areas are significantly more productive then wells drilled in the remaining lower quality areas of these shale basins.

This problem will make it harder in the future to maintain oil production from TOS, and make it more likely that areas like the Permian Basin will peak earlier then the EIA has been predicting.

CHEERS!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 06:16:56

Saw that PXD was divesting from all other basins besides the Permian.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Pioneer+Natural+Resources+%28PXD%29+to+Divest+South+Texas%2C+Raton+and+West+Panhandle+Assets/13772483.html

Timothy L. Dove, President and CEO, stated “I want to personally thank all of our South Texas, Raton and West Panhandle employees for their commitment and dedication to the continuing strong performance of these assets. They have created significant value for our shareholders over the many years we have owned these assets. After these divestitures are completed, Pioneer’s operations will be solely in the Permian Basin.”
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby MD » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 12:28:37

peak. who cares about peak. it's not about peak. it's about resource management, and we the people are terrible at that.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 13:00:10

A switch to renewables would require massive improvement in battery tech, perhaps ones using oxygen from air. Likely decades away.

But I believe artificial leaf tech is far more promising and probably the only realistic solution if peak was actually near. Word is theyve currently reached 10% efficiency surpassing all known plants, even sugar cane at 8%. If manufacturing costs can be brought down and efficiency increased they would make batteries unecessary.

Depending on time to peak we may need a Manhattan like project to accelerate their technological development.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen 2020s

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 20:02:53

Oil analyst Robert Rapier is now singing my song..i.e. US TOS will peak in the 2020s.

robert-rapier-peak-oil-in-four-years

Rapier believes the peak will happen because of limits in infrastructure...i.e. pipelines won't get built fast enough or we'll run out of sand for fracking or something like that. That is certainly possible......particularly the lack of sand. Lets call it...."Peak Sand."

In fact, one of the best stock market investments has been investing in sand companies rather then oil companies. You can make a lot of money investing in Sand-----

Cheers!

Image
As we approach peak sand in the US, sand companies are going to do very well.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 23:59:53

That is certainly possible......particularly the lack of sand. Lets call it...."Peak Sand."


the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.
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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in the 2020s

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 00:19:12

rockdoc123 wrote:the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.


local clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.

Get it now?

Image
Chinese proppant---the cheapest alternative to sand for fracking
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in the 2020s

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 14:59:42

Plantagenet wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:the cost for ceramic propant materials are steadily dropping. There are a number of service companies who believe that there is a good chance ceramic propants will put sand mining companies out of business in the not too distant future. Using local clay to manufacture ceramic propants in the areas nearby fracking operations will substantially drop the cost and as sand becomes more difficult to obtain the price will rise until it becomes more expensive than it ceramic counterpart.


local clay? Hahahahaha! You say the funniest things.

If you're after cheap proppant then the cheapest ceramic proppant comes from China! Its manufactured in CHINA using CHINESE CLAY and then SHIPPED SIX THOUSAND MILES ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THROUGH THE PANAMA CANEL TO THE US. Even after all that shipping Chinese proppant is undercutting Carbo Ceramics----the main US manufacturer.

Get it now?

Image
Chinese proppant---the cheapest alternative to sand for fracking

So it's clay (to make ceramic) vs. sand, which is what rockdoc123 said.

The key thing is that the cries of "peak sand" doom look wrong, given that clay is super common. (I have LOTS of it in my yard below the topsoil, unfortunately).

Whether Chinese brand X or local brand Y or Z is used is pretty much beside the point. And price competition, cost of fuel, etc. could change who can and will offer clay derived proppant at the lowest price, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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