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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 21 Mar 2019, 18:28:36

Darian S wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.


IT is something new, when a single bachelor grad could have a stay at home wife, 6-8 kids well provided for, and life comfortably a few decades back. That's quite impossible now even with a couple of Ph.d grads both working.

A). Complete nonsense. Even 20-30 years ago, when professional peers of mine decided to do the "stay at home wife and one worker" thing, they had to make SIGNIFICANT trade-offs re how they lived. Even if they had 1 to 3 kids.

B). At what standard of living? Back at the time you're talking about, people of modest to moderate means were FINE living in much smaller houses, having one car without a huge pile of amenities, not eating our frequently, not taking fancy vacations frequently, etc. etc. etc.

Just because now people shriek "poverty" if they can't have everything they want or everything their neighbor has, regardless of differences in age, education, behavior, self-discipline, etc., it doesn't mean poverty rules the land. Whining ruling the land -- that's another thing, as you wild assertions without ANY back up data show.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 01:20:37

Pops wrote:
peakoilwhen wrote:Or are you hoping everyone here is so dumb they have no memory of the past including your estimates?

2 years ago peakoilwhen wrote:i think peak oil will happen when supply is around 100 mb/d.


So peak is now?
How much higher before we can expect your excuse?


Its already been given implicitly, but here it is explicitly :
With that 100mb/d number I was pretending to be a noob peaker to distance myself from my normal forum character and disarm suspicion that this is my 3rd sock account and avoid being banned again. That should have been obvious from my subsequent posts where I asserted oil is abiogenic and more is created within the Earth than we can possibly consume and our extraction will never geologically peak, but you were asleep so didn't pick up on this, you dozy-ass low iq moderator of a shit forum.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 14:20:26

peakoilwhen wrote:Its already been given implicitly, but here it is explicitly :
With that 100mb/d number I was pretending to be a noob peaker to distance myself from my normal forum character and disarm suspicion that this is my 3rd sock account and avoid being banned again. That should have been obvious from my subsequent posts where I asserted oil is abiogenic and more is created within the Earth than we can possibly consume and our extraction will never geologically peak, but you were asleep so didn't pick up on this, you dozy-ass low iq moderator of a shit forum.

With respect, there are so many crazies posting here, re ignoring sanity for economic or oil issues, it can be hard to tell when people are being sarcastic unless you make it clear, at least at times. Do you REALLY think everyone reading here can consistently get into your head on every post? NOT realistic.

Somehow, I don't think that acting like a jerk toward the mods will stand you in any better state re getting banned again at some point than, say, Elon Musk acting like a COMPLETE jerk towards the SEC, and the laws regarding CEO's and corporate information disclosure.

In other words, even if you're exasperated, there are productive and non-productive ways to respond. Guess which ones are more likely to end up resulting in banning?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 14:31:55

if i can post this, i don't understand why i haven't been banned. Pops is usually easy to goad into banning, is he playing hard to get?

Guess which ones are more likely to end up resulting in banning?

We don't have to guess, we can experiment with both ways.

Oil is abiotic. That's why rocky will never get his peak oil estimates correct. And his excuse is lame. " Oh my estimates were based on conventional supplies, I really didn't see the unconventional supply factor, how could I possibly ever have imagined unconventional being a factor? "
Why does it sound so lame?
Because it the same excuse we've all heard for the last 60 years. "Peak oil is about to happen! - oh, wait, unconventional supply has filled the demand, didn't that coming, and it doesn't count either ".

Yes, for all his degrees, expertise and all the other trophies he's got in his cabinate, he might as well be the average braindead doomer : because the only line he'll ever need to excuse all his wrong estimates is the same one they use.
Yet somehow he fools himself that he's got higher credibility than them. Nope. At least braindead doomers can be forgiven because they are too dumb to realise how lame the old peaker's excuse is.
Last edited by peakoilwhen on Fri 22 Mar 2019, 14:48:35, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Pops » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 14:37:23

man this is no way to live, go out and get some air, look at the sky
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 14:58:13

Pops wrote:man this is no way to live, go out and get some air, look at the sky


ok. And if this 'no ban' is a pardon, thanks I will try to be nice and bury the hatchett. How about restoring my original account? Can it be done?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Pops » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 15:14:36

man I don't do that anymore, too much of people like peakoilwhen
it's no way to live LOL
you'll have to toss some ad homs at Newf or Tanada and see where that gets you
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 15:18:05

Because it the same excuse we've all heard for the last 60 years. "Peak oil is about to happen! - oh, wait, unconventional supply has filled the demand, didn't that coming, and it doesn't count either ".


obviously, you are living in another reality given the unconventionals that I was referring to (and I pointed it out when I made the original prediction that unconventionals were not included) did not start from the perspective of liquids to become important until around 2010. Lets see 2018 - 2010...8 years not 60, but maybe you missed that day in grade school where they taught basic math?

Yes, for all his degrees, expertise and all the other trophies he's got in his cabinate, he might as well be the average braindead doomer : because the only line he'll ever need to excuse all his wrong estimates is the same one they use.
Yet somehow he fools himself that he's got higher credibility than them. Nope. At least braindead doomers can be forgiven because they are too dumb to realise how lame the old peaker's excuse is.


you don't actually know what it was I was forecasting and what the basis in terms of data for that forecast was. It was all laid out in my original note over a decade ago on this site. Yet you feel confident to blather on about how I don't know what I'm doing? Get a life or at least learn to read, it will take you a long ways. :roll:

ok. And if this 'no ban' is a pardon, thanks I will try to be nice and bury the hatchett. How about restoring my original account? Can it be done?


after the three messages you just posted, full of vile comments with no logical basis? Why would you think you are worth anything other than just being continually ignored here?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 16:04:30

>you are living in another reality given the unconventionals that I was ref...

Oh no, don't try that " I'm playing my special card that makes my wrong peak oil estimate immune to unconventional supply, or any other actual reason for peak oil not happening "
Everyone tries that.
And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 18:54:20

And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.


look moron, and I mean moron in terms of all of its synonyms...I along with many here have generally avoided proposing a time for peak. Back a decade ago I said in so many words....If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015. Well there was a sea change due to the unconventionals (essentially the same effect as new discoveries of import) and now there is a whole host of impactful events that affect price, demand and supply, meaning we are in the roller coaster that at least Rockman and me suggested would be the outcome.

Exactly what did you predict a decade ago that came true...perhaps that you would be banned from this site several times for being a complete idiot? At least you got two things right. :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 19:44:25

rockdoc123 wrote:
And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.


look moron, and I mean moron in terms of all of its synonyms...I along with many here have generally avoided proposing a time for peak. Back a decade ago I said in so many words....If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015. Well there was a sea change due to the unconventionals (essentially the same effect as new discoveries of import) and now there is a whole host of impactful events that affect price, demand and supply, meaning we are in the roller coaster that at least Rockman and me suggested would be the outcome.

Exactly what did you predict a decade ago that came true...perhaps that you would be banned from this site several times for being a complete idiot? At least you got two things right. :roll:

Ah, OK. I'd forgotten this was the "oil is aboiotic" clown. I'd had him on ignore for awhile.

No wonder he gets banned periodically, given his behavior.

Sorry I got in the middle trying to be nice and rational -- no point in this case.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:33:24

If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015.

That's not how you put it before.

rockdoc123 wrote:This is an incredibly naive response. Exactly where would that be? You seem to think there is a lot to be found/produced and what I am telling you is that is not the view of pretty much every oil company in the world nor IHS Energy nor Wood Mackenzie. The thought that you just have to look harder is an insult to the thousands of scientists and engineers who have dedicated the last decade of their careers to this task and have come to the same conclusion I have pointed out. We are running out of opportunities, not just good opportunities but opportunities in general.

You were making these predictions in August 2012, and you weren't qualifying it with "oh, unconventional oil could sweep away any peak oil prediction I make ", instead your PO prediction was backed by "every oil company in the world" and "thousands of scientists and engineers", and you were pressing me to tell you where the next major load of oil to save the world from peak would be.
why-we-shouldn-t-worry-about-end-times-t66350-40.html?hilit=2013%202015

As it happened, my response was correct.
meemoe_uk wrote:Just look everywhere again. Harder.

The new oil was under your feet, in your USA, a place where you'd already looked. Shale oil sources popped up everywhere all over the world. The industry looked in places it had already looked, and this time it found a lot more oil.

According to you, I was "incredibly naive" in 2012 for suggesting huge amounts of oil would be found in lands already explored. Well eat your words. A noob like me beat a senior oil prospector at his own game.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:45:53

btw how old are you rockdoc? Will you still be here in another 10 year? 15? 20? I guarantee oil production will continue to rise all that time - an unprofessional abiotic oil beilever's guarantee is worth more than all the world's professional fossil oil believers guarantee's put together.
You may be too scared to estimate when the peak will be, but your general attitude is that there will be one soon. Well you can drop that attitude and become a corny like me and OF2. Better do it now, rather than on your deathbed, that way you'll look less of a stubborn old fool.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 21:13:47

peakoilwhen wrote:btw how old are you rockdoc? Will you still be here in another 10 year? 15? 20? I guarantee oil production will continue to rise all that time - an unprofessional abiotic oil beilever's guarantee is worth more than all the world's professional fossil oil believers guarantee's put together.
You may be too scared to estimate when the peak will be, but your general attitude is that there will be one soon. Well you can drop that attitude and become a corny like me and OF2. Better do it now, rather than on your deathbed, that way you'll look less of a stubborn old fool.

When more oil is found and produced because of new and improved technologies, it doesn't mean more oil magically appeared. Just like increasing energy efficiencies in light bulb technology doesn't mean a light bulb fairy magically made it so.

Not that I'd expect your ilk to respond to logic or data, but thanks for playing.

You have lots of companions in total craziness. Flat earthers. AGW denialists. Religious fundamentalists who take religious texts as literal truth. Too bad conviction doesn't make you right.

Or do you have actual, specific, scientific proof? Like a lab which can produce abiotic oil with a specific defined process, and reproduce the results?

No? Well, the clowns claiming they could turn lead into gold had no such proof either back in the day, but hey, it's fun to dream and make spurious claims.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 22:16:24

>Or do you have actual, specific, scientific proof? Like a lab
No I don't own a laboratory.
There is no such thing as 'scientific proof'. That's just a empty buzzterm that retards who failed high school science endlessly spout.
Science requires evidence, which either falsifies or verifies a theory, but it can never prove a theory. I understood that on my 1st day of science at school, while retards like u can go 70 years and not comprehend it.

Here's lab results which verifies abiotic oil theory.
https://www.scribd.com/document/4653767 ... J-F-Kenney
petroleum is produced under mantle conditions.

You're an idiot. This site has become a time capsule from a bygone age. A time when rockefeller fooled the oil industry into thinking petroleum was a fossil fuel. Today the industry is full of properly educated people who subscribe to abiotic oil.
You don't even understand your own theory. You were supposed to have an oil peak, because you think oil is a non-renewable resource. It hasn't happened. And now we are producing over 100 million barrels a day, an insanely high amount that exceeds all historical estimates, and all you can do is forget the past and cry peak soon. 100 million, a 100 billion, or a googleplex a day, its all the same to you, you still wouldn't grasp that your theory isn't working, cos you don't even understand numbers, let alone that a limited resource will run out.

Edit: Knock off with the ad hom attacks on other members of the board. If you can not act like an adult there shall be consequences to your poor behavior.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 11:42:02

You were making these predictions in August 2012, and  and you weren't qualifying it with "oh, unconventional oil could sweep away any peak oil prediction I make ", instead your PO prediction was backed by "every oil company in the world" and "thousands of scientists and engineers", and you were pressing me to tell you where the next major load of oil to save the world from peak would be.


Complete BS. You make that statement and then use a quote that had nothing to do with the prediction I made back about a decade ago. By 2012 I no longer had up to date access to Petroconsultants and Wood Mac, I did back a decade ago which is when I made that prediction. My statement taken in it’s full context was talking about the rationale for my prediction made a number of years previous. Again reading comprehension is your friend.

The new oil was under your feet, in your USA, a place where you'd already looked. Shale oil sources popped up everywhere all over the world. The industry looked in places it had already looked, and this time it found a lot more oil.

Good God, you know nothing whatsoever about the subject. There was no “new oil”. As Rockman has pointed out time and again we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades. They were the source rocks for all of the hydrocarbons which have been produced from conventional reservoirs, we knew that way back when, it was demonstrated time and time again in literally dozens of published papers. Hydrocarbons have been produced from some of these tight formations for many years, case in point being the Antrim shale which has been producing for about 60 years. The issue a decade ago was that there was no foreseeable economic means of extracting hydrocarbons from the shales and tighter siltstones. The initial wells and fracs into the Marcellus were too expensive and resulted in too little production to be an economic endeavor worth pursuing. It wasn’t until long reach horizontals and mult-stage fracs came into play that it all started to make sense. By 2012 it was obvious that shale was going to have an impact and as the economics continued to improve and oil prices rose the whole picture regarding peak changed.

According to you, I was "incredibly naive" in 2012 for suggesting huge amounts of oil would be found in lands already explored. Well eat your words. A noob like me beat a senior oil prospector at his own game


Again, either you suffer from illiteracy or you just can’t be bothered to actually read what you quote from. What I said was:

I have spent a lot of the last decade looking around the world for what are remaining large exploration targets. Outside of the shale liquids story (the US is likely the biggest followed by Argentina and maybe China or Algeria) there really isn’t anything in areas where people aren’t already exploring. If they are exploring there then it means it is economic at the current price. The idea that there are vast amounts of hydrocarbons left to be discovered that require a higher price for exploration to happen is incorrect. Again, point to such areas if you can.


In short we didn't suddenly "find" new oil in shale, we knew it was there all along but it took better prices and better technology to make it economic.

 
Today the industry is full of properly educated people who subscribe to abiotic oil.


Complete and utter horsepucky. Please name the senior executives at Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and every other major oil and gas company that subscribe to this theory. Please show where that theory has actually resulted in a discovery of oil and gas.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 13:32:30

>we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades.

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 14:15:18

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.


again demonstrating your illiteracy or reluctance to read what is put in front of you. Shale extraction was not economic back when the forecast was made (~2006) and it didn't become very economic until years later, I said that a couple of times. That is why nobody accounted for it back then. Either you are trying to be a complete fool or you are just stupid, not sure which but the result is the same.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 14:53:32

...or maybe i was dumb to expect foresight from someone who purportedly knows basic market economics : prices will rise to match supply and demand. Perhaps you never got your skull around the link between rise in oil prices as extraction has become more challenging over the last 200 years.
Well at least you've hung your hat on a particular excuse for your failure. But compounded with the
facts...
- by 2005-2006 there was already a continuous fast rise in oil prices, but somehow you weren't smart enough to factor that into your predictions
- By 2012 you knew that oil prices had risen enough to make shale economic, and you knew there was a lot of shale oil. But still you saw fit to keep your prediction based on shale being uneconomic. derp
... you're still a tagged a tard.

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