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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:04:01

Plantagenet wrote:Theres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.

Meanwhile, the existing rate of oil production in Mexico declines further each year.

Cheers!


Until they maybe get things figured out, and repeak the entire country again. :-D :-D :-D

Cheers!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:08:09

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


Plant, will you get around to READING already? I didn't say any rock formations stopped at the border. I said "obvious trends in development".

And I'm not about to explain how discovery process modeling reveals this information across a given petroleum system (or even what that is) if you can't even be bothered to read what I wrote rather than just making up some other interpretation hoping that others can be lulled into the same error you just made.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:16:48

This means the the predictions by Adam and Crockdoc that Mexico will be fracking its way to oil riches in the Burgos basin are puff and nonsense, because there isn't much of the oil-rich petrofacies of the Eagle Ford shale in the Burgos basin


Whereas most of the Eagleford extension into the Burgos basin is in the drier gas window (which I have said already), about 1/3 is wet gas with yields over 70 bbls/MMcf.

And there are a couple of additional shale basins (Tampico and Misantla), the U. Jurassic Pimienta Fm (close equivalent with the Haynesville shale) is thought to be a better reservoir than the Eagleford.

EIA suggests technically recoverable reserves of 13 billion bbls of oil and condensate from shales in Mexico which is larger than their current conventional proven reserves. This is hardly insignificant given KMZ with reserves around 4 billion bbls produces at 800,000 bopd.

Further to that, as I just said above the first bit of exploration being done after the bid round awards to parties other than PEMEX has resulted in a couple of very large conventional discoveries. There will be more to follow.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:16:59

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


I didn't say any rock formations stopped at the border. I said "obvious trends in development".


What do you think is being developed? Its the Eagle Ford Shale. And what do you think the Eagle Ford Shale is? Its a rock formation.

And guess what? The Eagle Ford shale occurs on BOTH sides of the US-Mexican border. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Do you get it now?

Cheers!

Image
Look! The oil producing part of the Eagle Ford goes a short distance into Mexico while the gas-producing part of the Eagle Ford shale extends quite a ways into Mexico!!!

Sheesh!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 23:10:35

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders.


Learn to read. I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.

AdamB wrote:There are obvious trends of development in the offshore that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border. As obvious as the nose on an exploration geologists face.


Feel free to find that Eagle Ford in the offshore genius. Until then, learn some geology and stop being an ignoramus.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 00:13:48

AdamB wrote: I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.


I know.

Thats why I'm making fun of you.

Your belief that you can locate where oil is by following "trends of development" instead of locating oil bearing rock formations like the Eagle Ford shale is pretty funny. :lol:

Image

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 15:41:21

EIA and OPEC predict US shale oil will add ca. 1 million bbls/day of new production in 2018

5-oil-factors-watch-2018]

The US TOS shale biz is currently losing money. If they increase oil production by 1 million bbls/day will they make up their losses on volume? :)

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 15:48:18

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: I didn't say a word about the Eagle Ford.


I know.

Thats why I'm making fun of you.


Excellent. As long as you need to just make stuff up to make fun of it isn't me writing something down incorrectly. You can make up whatever garbage you'd like, it is still a free country.

Now run along and claim some other formations producing for more than half a century were just discovered because you read an article in the MSM somewhere and didn't understand it, see who you can get to fall for it.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 16:09:49

AdamB wrote: it isn't me writing something down incorrectly...


?????

I directly quoted the part of your post I thought was funny.

I even explained why I thought it was funny.

You know---its OK to laugh at things you see on the internet.

Laughing is a good and healthy thing.

I usually get one really good laugh every time I look at PeakOil.com.

Thanks for making me laugh!

lol

rofl

Have a great day!

ImageCheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 16:19:11

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: it isn't me writing something down incorrectly...


?????

I directly quoted the part of your post I thought was funny.


You have a nice day Plant. Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 16:35:38

AdamB wrote:. Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.


I'm happy to discuss anything with you, Adam, but the last four times we've discussed things the discussions have ended with you calling me a troll. Every time its the same routine.

This isn't unusual on the internet. There are always a few people on internet forums who lack self control and inevitably wind up getting wee-wee'd up and calling other people names. In fact its so common that its become a general rule on the internet that the person who goes around calling every else a troll is usually a troll themselves.

whats-up-with-calling-people-trolls

"calling someone a troll has become a form of trolling in it's self."

IMHO its more fun to discuss things without all the name-calling. I suggest you try that---see how long you can discuss something without getting angry and flaming the other poster. If you disagree with something you read---even something that tics you off, try laughing at it instead of getting angry. Its more fun that way.

Thats just my suggestion, of course.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 21:03:47

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:. Let me know if you want to discuss anything without the trolling.


I'm happy to discuss anything with you, Adam, but the last four times we've discussed things the discussions have ended with you calling me a troll. Every time its the same routine.


Not sure I called you a troll? But I definitely said you were trolling. Because this behavior appears to be a recent event, I don't automatically assume you are now a troll. More likely you became bored, and just decided to have some fun with folks.

And it is the same routine. You say something wrong, I correct you, you change the subject and pretend I said something I didn't, I point out the particulars of your trolling in some condescending way, and you pretend you were right all along.

Plaqntagenet wrote:IMHO its more fun to discuss things without all the name-calling. I suggest you try that---see how long you can discuss something without getting angry and flaming the other poster.


And my recommendation is maybe you ease off using terms you are unfamiliar with, maybe stop making up things and pretending the other person said them when they didn't? It isn't difficult, I'm sure with a little practice you can resist the urge to keep doing this.

"Getting angry"...good one! Sorry Plant, but as you pointed out, this is the internet, there is no skin in the game here.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 00:10:06

AdamB wrote:... troll.... trolling.... troll.....


Image

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 03:11:56

Plantagenet wrote:EIA and OPEC predict US shale oil will add ca. 1 million bbls/day of new production in 2018

5-oil-factors-watch-2018]

The US TOS shale biz is currently losing money. If they increase oil production by 1 million bbls/day will they make up their losses on volume? :)

Cheers!

As long as money is poured, they will make money... Maybe not profits yet.

I'm not sure how much US shale can grow in 2018... Just that it will grow, maybe as much as this year (~500 kb/d), but the 1mb/d figure will require more investment than there is today. Too much people take last month data as a guidance, but there are multiple reasons for a month to be over or under the long term trend. August was under and september was over...
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 12:14:38

IEA fears oil shortages by 2020 as new oil discoveries fall to record low

iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016

Its pretty hard to have large new oil discoveries when most of the world has already been pretty thoroughly explored for petroleum.

Cheers!

---------------------

Hmmm.... that 2020-21 timeline on oil shortages is a perfect fit to this thread!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 12:26:03

Plantagenet wrote:IEA fears oil shortages by 2020 as new oil discoveries fall to record low



IEA predicted peak oil in 2006. So it is interesting that it took 14 years for them to finally get the consequences.

Of course, others AGREE that peak oil is scheduled in 2020. But it has nothing to do with shortages of course.
Peak oil in 2020. But odds are no one will care. Cancel peak oil rapture. Again.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 14:56:29



Tony Seba rides in a clown car. His 'disruptive' paradigm depends on AI and driverless cars.

It is noteworthy that autonomous electric vehicles are required for electric vehicles to dominate. This speaks to the fact that the current generation of electric vehicles can’t compete with internal-combustion vehicles unless they are integrated with a new business model. The technology to offer such a transportation model remains experimental; the financial viability of such a business model, assuming the technology matures, has yet to be proved; and the cultural acceptance of such a transportation model remains questionable.

The biggest obstacle for electric vehicles’ wide adoption is their failure to address an actual problem from the driver’s point of view. Electric vehicles have less range, lower residual value, higher cost—and this includes fuel cost—slow charging time, and are adversely impacted by cold or hot weather, among other issues. In 1917, electric vehicles represented 38% of the U.S. car fleet; there is a reason why they are at 1% today. Internal-combustion cars offer a more-viable transportation option.

Nawar Alsaadi, an author and principal at investment-advisory firm Semper Augustus Capital. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 2016
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 22:13:31

pstarr wrote:


Tony Seba rides in a clown car. His 'disruptive' paradigm depends on AI and driverless cars.


A more realistic scenario than waiting around for your brand of Rapture. Or should I say your NEXT brand of Rapture, considering that the last one came and went, and yet...you are still here with us!

You are just jealous, those who EV aren't emitting all those nasty CO2 molecules in their travels being so far beyond you in the ecologically minded department.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 02:59:23

Tony Seba's scenario is appealing... It's a nice future idea. But it's in the utopia prophecy kind of scenarios. The principle of technology disruptions is that you can't foreseen them, or what effects they'll have. Whatever the outcome you forecast, bad or good, it will be different.

There is currently no trend in a reduction of oil consumption. On the contrary, with the fall of oil prices, the consumption increased at a higher rate globally. Even through the 2010-2014 high prices era, consumption increased, although not in the US.

It's not that Seba is wrong... It's just that whatever EV and FSD fanboys are believing, it's not happening currently. Not that I'm against it. Maybe it's going to happen (certainly for a part of people). But I will doubt until it's really substancial. The current population believing in a near tech disruption is not representative of the needs of the global population.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 09:42:24

tita wrote:https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2017/12/15/north-dakota-update-through-october-2017/

Older wells also appear to have grown, which may be related with refracking or completion of DUC, I don't know. At this rythm, Bakken will reach its 2015 high before the end of the year.

It appears that this growth in older wells was due to a refracking campaign in the summer.

It makes sense, especially in the Bakken, as early wells can benefit latest fracking techniques, without the cost of drilling a new well. But it doesn't hide the fact that there is a lack of new location to drill (at current prices), and producers are now focusing on the backlog of DUCs and the revival of older wells. Bakken will be interesting to follow in 2018... But beware of winter time in ND, it is not representative of longer trend as the weather usually slow operations.
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