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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 14:01:39

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:... the EIA didn't fall for peak oil. They knew better. Puts them head and shoulders above all those who did.


Actually, the EIA prediction was for conventional oil production to steadily increase each year, while the Peak Oil theorists said conventional oil would peak.


Well, here is the original peak oil documentation. The johnny come lately wanna-bees, Hubbert groupies, bloggers, unemployed lawyers, beat cops, amateur violin players and . . .

and don't forget unemployed oil-company interns like yourself. Now that peakoil.com is employed you as a troll, has you income stream improved?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 14:16:33

AdamB wrote: you really need to figure out the entire multi-peak thing...


There is no "multi-peak thing.."

Peak Oil occurs when global oil production reaches its maximum level.

Last time I looked it was still slowly increasing at a rate of roughly 1% per year.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 17:54:19

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: you really need to figure out the entire multi-peak thing...


There is no "multi-peak thing.."

Peak Oil occurs when global oil production reaches its maximum level.


Sure. Like in Mexico. 3 times. Once in the 60's...and then it peaked again in the 90's...and then again around 2004!!!!

Each one...an ALL TIME MAXIMUM LEVEL!!!!

And everyone stood back amazed, peakers clapped themselves on the back in glee, began getting their affairs in order for the Rapture.

until it happened again...later.

Funny how that keeps happening, and peakers keep forgetting it. Spike knows this, told you already, and he isn't even a peak oiler! Peak oilers just seem to have this thing that gets in the way of them learning from their incessant can kicking.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 17:57:18

pstarr wrote:and don't forget unemployed oil-company interns like yourself.


We'll chalk that one up to just you lying because you are ignorant.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 17:59:22

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:and don't forget unemployed oil-company interns like yourself.


We'll chalk that one up to just you lying because you are ignorant.

You are still an oil-company intern? I didn't know. My bad. :cry: :lol:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 22:57:38

AdamB wrote:... in Mexico. 3 times. Once in the 60's...and then it peaked again in the 90's...and then again around 2004!!!!

Each one...an ALL TIME MAXIMUM LEVEL!!!!


Actually no.

You are making two mistakes in your thinking here.

The first mistake is that you don't understand some very simple and basic mathematical concepts, such as determining which of two or three numbers is the largest.

Now pay close attention:

The rate of oil production in Mexico was higher in 2004 then it was in either the 60s or 90s. Therefore peak oil definitely didn't occur in Mexico in the 1960s or the 1990s.

Got that? Its pretty simple math so lets assume you get it now and go on to your next basic mistake.

The second mistake you are making involves the definition of peak oil. An oil province or a country or the world can only be said to have reached peak oil AFTER all the potential oil resources in the country are explored and mostly developed and produced.

In the 1960s and indeed in the 1990s Mexico oil resources were poorly explored because oil exploration was greatly curtailed in Mexico after Mexico nationalized its oil industry in 1938. No one in their right mind (except apparently you) thought Mexico was hitting peak oil in the 1960s or even in the 1990s because large areas of the country hadn't even been adequately explored and tested for oil resources.

So little exploration work was done that Cantarell, Mexico's only supergiant oil field, was only discovered in the 1970s. Then after Cantarell was discovered Pemex coasted for another couple of decades and did relatively little exploration work.

Since Cantarell went into decline Pemex has launched into active exploration again of their major oil provinces, but still hasn't found much of anything, so their oil production continues to decline. Just a short while ago Pemex opened up their oil industry to foreigners for the first time since 1938, but so far that has't produced any major new finds either.

In the absence of new oil production that will surpass the peak levels of production Mexico reached before production at Cantarell collapsed, Peak Oil in Mexico occurred in 2004.

Get it now?

Image
Pemex is still looking but so far hasn't found enough oil to totally replace Cantarell, which peaked in 2004, resulting in a 30% decline in Mexican oil production since then.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby MD » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 03:38:07

blah blah blah. peak this, peak that. peak what? peak common sense went away a long time ago. The rest is just bullshit and waiting for the fat lady
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 11:29:54

Just a short while ago Pemex opened up their oil industry to foreigners for the first time since 1938, but so far that has't produced any major new finds either. 


The first few wells into the newly offered acreage have just been drilled this year. Of those there has been two significant discoveries

Petroleos Mexicanos announced its biggest onshore discovery in 15 years, just three months after Mexico reported the first major find by private companies, bolstering the nation’s efforts to revive its oil industry.
The Ixachi-1 well that lies 72 kilometers (45 miles) south of the port of Veracruz is believed to contain 1.5 billion barrels of oil in place, or about 350 million in proven, probable and possible reserves.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/pemex-to-announce-big-onshore-oil-descovery-in-veracruz-state

The Zama well, some 60km off the coast of the southeastern state of Tabasco, contains an estimated 1.4bn to 2bn barrels of light oil in place, potentially extending into a neighbouring block.


https://www.ft.com/content/79969c16-66bb-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

Given this is just the start of the new exploration phase one should expect additional significant discoveries.

To beat the old peak would require total discoveries somewhere in the size of the KMZ field complex (about 4 billion bbl) which is producing at 800,000 bpd.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 11:37:39

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:... in Mexico. 3 times. Once in the 60's...and then it peaked again in the 90's...and then again around 2004!!!!

Each one...an ALL TIME MAXIMUM LEVEL!!!!


Actually no.

You are making two mistakes in your thinking here.


Nope. Contemporaneous to the event....it is... PEAK OIL!!!! Peak oilers have been milking exactly this idea since before this website was founded. Back then, no one was meally mouthing around what a peak was, like you are attempting to do now. And why do you need to do it now? Because of all those peak oils from back then!!!!

You want to talk about people making mistakes in their thinking related to peak oils (notice...PLURAL!! :) ), read this website. I am just recognizing the logic used by your colleagues.

Cheers!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 11:40:07

MD wrote:blah blah blah. peak this, peak that. peak what? peak common sense went away a long time ago.


Peak common sense? When in the hell did THAT ever happen? The entire concept is nothing but a natural outgrowth from an ignorance of resource economics.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby MD » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 15:35:16

AdamB wrote:
MD wrote:blah blah blah. peak this, peak that. peak what? peak common sense went away a long time ago.


Peak common sense? When in the hell did THAT ever happen? The entire concept is nothing but a natural outgrowth from an ignorance of resource economics.


something like that, but I would simplify it further to just general ignorance.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 16:37:03

P - To add to Doc's post: some of the most prolific CONVENTIONAL oil trends in S Texas run right up to the Mexican border. Thousands of wells. Without a data base I have no idea how they have or haven't been extended into Mexico. And that doesn't include relatively new plays like the Eagle Ford. But there is a potential problem: these plays tend to be dominated by small independents. Companies that would not be very trusting of the Mexican govt. Not just nationalization but new "taxes". Service companies will also be concerned about moving hundreds of $millions of equipment into Mexico: you also need a permit to move equipment out of a foreign country. More then one service company has been forced to sell their equipment for pennies on the dollar in other countries because they couldn't get an export permit.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 16:49:27

But there is a potential problem: these plays tend to be dominated by small independents. Companies that would not be very trusting of the Mexican govt. Not just nationalization but new "taxes". Service companies will also be concerned about moving hundreds of $millions of equipment into Mexico: you also need a permit to move equipment out of a foreign country. More then one service company has been forced to sell their equipment for pennies on the dollar in other countries because they couldn't get an export permit.


There were a few US E&P companies who participated in the recent bid rounds but certainly not a hoard of them. My view is that the terms are not particularly great (although my understanding is they are looking at easing them further), you can make more money chasing plays on the US side of the border if you know what you are doing than on the MX side. The service company thing is dominated by Big Blue and Big Red but there are a few small Canadian and US service companies and a number of Mexican ones. A lot of the service companies walked away from MX a couple of years ago as PEMEX wasn't paying their bills. The MX gov't was raiding PEMEX operating budget which meant PEMEX was unable to pay everyone. They chose to pay Schlumberger and Haliburton given they do so much business with them. There were a number of small service companies who were owed millions of dollars. I believe PEMEX has paid most of them now, but some were discounted by as much as 50%.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:26:03

AdamB wrote: Contemporaneous to the event....it is... PEAK OIL!!!!


Every peak in oil production isn't "PEAK OIL!!!!!"

Please go back and study the definition of peak oil, and then try again.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:28:52

ROCKMAN wrote:some of the most prolific CONVENTIONAL oil trends in S Texas run right up to the Mexican border. Thousands of wells. Without a data base I have no idea how they have or haven't been extended into Mexico. And that doesn't include relatively new plays like the Eagle Ford. But there is a potential problem: these plays tend to be dominated by small independents. Companies that would not be very trusting of the Mexican govt. Not just nationalization but new "taxes". Service companies will also be concerned about moving hundreds of $millions of equipment into Mexico: you also need a permit to move equipment out of a foreign country. More then one service company has been forced to sell their equipment for pennies on the dollar in other countries because they couldn't get an export permit.


Exactly right.

Theres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.

Meanwhile, the existing rate of oil production in Mexico declines further each year.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:37:57

Theres a whole passel of reasons fracking hasn't taken off in Mexico the way it has in Texas.


the major one being the leases for shale gas exploration were just awarded a few months ago. Pemex drilled a few wells but they had almost a zero exploration budget.

It's a bit early to declare doom when they have effectively just started.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 17:53:52

People counting on the new drilling in Mexico's Burgos district to help Mexico reverse its falling oil production numbers are going to be disappointed.

The EIA says the Burgos play is a Natural Gas play. Theres no large oil resource there---its almost all NG.

Burgos-Mexico-NG-EIA

This supports what I was saying earlier in this thread----its very unlikely this new activity will reverse the decline in oil production in Mexico that began in 2004-5 when Cantarell went into decline. This is consistent with the peak in Mexican oil production being ca. 2004-5.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 19:23:04

ROCKMAN wrote:P - To add to Doc's post: some of the most prolific CONVENTIONAL oil trends in S Texas run right up to the Mexican border. Thousands of wells. Without a data base I have no idea how they have or haven't been extended into Mexico.


There are obvious trends of development in the offshore that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border. As obvious as the nose on an exploration geologists face.

I can't vouch for the onshore because the geologists giving the presentation were focused offshore.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 19:33:39

AdamB wrote:There are obvious trends of development ... that stop EXACTLY at the American/Mexican border.


??????

Actually, rock formations like the Eagle Ford don't stop "EXACTLY" at international borders. Geology is no great respecter of international boundaries----its not like the rock formations have to show a passport to cross to the other side of the border or something! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Parts of the Eagle Ford in the US are more prospective for oil, and other parts are more prospective for NG. The oil-rich part of the Eagle Ford doesn't extend far into Mexico but the NG-rich parts do.

This means the the predictions by Adam and Crockdoc that Mexico will be fracking its way to oil riches in the Burgos basin are puff and nonsense, because there isn't much of the oil-rich petrofacies of the Eagle Ford shale in the Burgos basin---the resource there is likely to be mainly natural gas, just like the NG-rich parts of the Eagle Ford that are found directly across border with the USA.

CHEERS!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 20:00:26

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote: Contemporaneous to the event....it is... PEAK OIL!!!!


Every peak in oil production isn't "PEAK OIL!!!!!"


Fine. You really want me to prove that you are wrong? (your current idea, not the one you'll change it to after I demonstrate why you are wrong) Pay attention now, and don't be changing the subject after I prove how Mike Lynch is right, and you are just trolling because I still don't believe you are as stupid as you are pretending...i.e. imitating pstarr, for whom it might be perfectly natural or chemically induced.

In 2006 Jeffrey Brown was pretending to know something about resource economics. All he managed to do by this date in time is demonstrate why you don't ask a geologist economic questions, but he was quite popular in the peak oil days, even posted some occasional gibberish here about peak oil. Here is Jeff in 2006, saying that peak oil is a done deal.

The title of his article?

westtexas wrote:Has oil peaked? Yes.


The first sentence in the article.

westtexas wrote:The Texas oil industry knows all about peak oil, because we’ve already gone through it.


So Jeffrey uses...you guessed it...THE PAST TENSE. You do understand how these work in the English language, right Plant?

Texas has peaked. Done deal. Decades ago. The article says 1972.

Just 9 years later in 2015, the demonstration of why you don't listen to geologists when it comes to resource economics becomes visible here.

Of importance to this proof is this quote...

Statewide (Texas) oil output is expected to reach 1.28 billion barrels this year, exceeding the state’s record of 1.26 billion barrels set in 1972, Ingham said.


Now, I don't care what the expectation was, I just need the number for that OTHER peak oil...you know...the one that Jeffrey claimed was a done deal....decades earlier?

1.26 billion barrels, here let me make the next step easier for you....1.26 billion = 1260 millions for the year. Now the hard part. I divide by 12 to get the monthly number. 105,000 thousands of barrels per month. Now we check out what happened with Texas. Here is the EIA info. I've already converted the fuelfix article units so you don't need to worry about needing a calculator (considering the difficulty you have with logic, I didn't want to make your predicament worse)

Image

See that OTHER peak in 2015? 110,000 thousands, 110,000,000 barrels/month. Looks like #3 might be warming up in the batters box as well.

Peak oil according to a tried and true geologist, happened in Texas and awe shucks, it was in the past and done. Except it wasn't. Because peak oils are given credit for their existence on a cartesian coordinate system, the second coordinate being TIME. Just as Hubbert did it, just as Jeffrey did it, just as the EIA and IEA plot domestic and global oil production, you can't avoid the second coordinate, and peak oilers do EXACTLY what Jeffrey did every chance they get. They declare peak oil...and then look stupid later, and make up excuses as to why they now look stupid. Or in the case of some folks, begin changing the definition of oil, and "pulling a Trump" i.e. "bald faced lying". Pstarr is famous for this one.

Now stop whining about how easy it was to prove you wrong...again....and for goodness sake stop TROLLING, or at least go do it to pstarr or someone who won't notice.

plantagenet wrote:Please go back and study the definition of peak oil, and then try again.

Cheers!


I did. You are welcome. If you need help using a calculator to get the units right to understand the vast complexity of the EIA Texas production chart, PM me and I'll explain it all keypunch by keypunch.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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