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Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 16:04:01

Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

For decades there have been predictions of peak oil and the disastrous consequences it will have on society. As the theory goes, eventually the world's oil reservoirs will run out of oil, driving us to more expensive reservoirs and higher oil prices until there's not enough cheap oil to serve the world's energy needs. Essentially, there will be a peak in cheap oil supply.

Those who fear peak oil also often think there will be a cascade of economic disasters as a result of this peak in cheap oil supply. Today, there is emerging evidence that a peak is on the horizon -- but it's not a peak in supply, it's a peak in demand. Energy efficiency is improving, alternatives are becoming viable, and oil just isn't as attractive as it once was to consumers. The result could be a peak oil scenario that works in exactly the opposite way of what's been predicted -- and a scenario that's good for everyone.


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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 16:59:47

That is so very very rare today - genuine, heartfelt, wishful thinking.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 17:06:04

KaiserJeep wrote:That is so very very rare today - genuine, heartfelt, wishful thinking.
Graeme good at that.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 17:12:42

Anarchy rules.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Dybbuk » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 19:46:17

The author doesn't seem to understand the difference between "demand" and "consumption".

He also buys into the illusion that the price of energy from alternatives will keep going down forever, extrapolating from the past into the future as if that was the only possible outcome.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 16 Oct 2014, 20:44:17

Consumption has been dropping in the U.S., Europe, and Japan due to economic crises. It has been rising globally because of a growing middle class. That plus significant fossil fuel inputs needed even for other energy sources means that there can be no peak in oil demand unless the economy goes into long-term decline.

When that happens, middle class conveniences will not be readily available as more people spend on more expensive basic needs. After that, even the latter will become too expensive.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby rollin » Fri 17 Oct 2014, 13:50:38

The problem is not peak oil, which is inevitable. The problem is peak greed, ignorance and peak apathy that seems to prevent any significant move away from oil and other fossil fuels.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Herr Meier » Fri 17 Oct 2014, 15:21:52

rollin wrote:The problem is peak greed, ignorance and peak apathy that seems to prevent any significant move away from oil and other fossil fuels.


What do you mean? You'd prefer that greed, ignorance and apathy increase forever more? I'd rather have them peak.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Deputy Barnes » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 00:59:41

Peak Oil is Coming And You Should Love It... If you are a masochist who enjoys the thought of being raped and cannibalized by your local varsity football team/volunteer fire department/gang members, etc.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 01:37:30

Deputy Barnes wrote:Peak Oil is Coming And You Should Love It... If you are a masochist who enjoys the thought of being raped and cannibalized by your local varsity football team/volunteer fire department/gang members, etc.

You are right. There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil. Without oil, the whole world would fall apart, as there are currently no good substitutes for fossil fuels for all of our activities. Without oil, society will completely fall apart. Without oil, we are f()cked beyond belief.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Deputy Barnes » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 01:46:22

DesuMaiden wrote:
Deputy Barnes wrote:Peak Oil is Coming And You Should Love It... If you are a masochist who enjoys the thought of being raped and cannibalized by your local varsity football team/volunteer fire department/gang members, etc.

You are right. There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil. Without oil, the whole world would fall apart, as there are currently no good substitutes for fossil fuels for all of our activities. Without oil, society will completely fall apart. Without oil, we are f()cked beyond belief.


You see it brother. Without oil, Earth would turn over on its axis. Every value and shred of moral decency developed over the last 10,000 years would go out the window. Butt naked savages will run through the streets at night, wearing lipstick and high heels, cannibalizing people for sustenance. This is already happening in Liberia. Men and women will be forcibly sodomized. There will be forest fires out of control (amateur survivalists will cause them), all major bodies of water will become as filthy as the river Ganges, nuclear material unaccounted for will suddenly be accounted for in our thyroids. It is going to be absolute f()cking carnage.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 01:59:47

Deputy Barnes wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
Deputy Barnes wrote:Peak Oil is Coming And You Should Love It... If you are a masochist who enjoys the thought of being raped and cannibalized by your local varsity football team/volunteer fire department/gang members, etc.

You are right. There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil. Without oil, the whole world would fall apart, as there are currently no good substitutes for fossil fuels for all of our activities. Without oil, society will completely fall apart. Without oil, we are f()cked beyond belief.


You see it brother. Without oil, Earth would turn over on its axis. Every value and shred of moral decency developed over the last 10,000 years would go out the window. Butt naked savages will run through the streets at night, wearing lipstick and high heels, cannibalizing people for sustenance. This is already happening in Liberia. Men and women will be forcibly sodomized. There will be forest fires out of control (amateur survivalists will cause them), all major bodies of water will become as filthy as the river Ganges, nuclear material unaccounted for will suddenly be accounted for in our thyroids. It is going to be absolute f()cking carnage.

And that day is coming sooner than most people think. There is only 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the whole world. At our current rate of consumption (30 billion barrels per year), 1 trillion barrels of oil will be consumed in about 30 years. It will probably not even last another 30 years as the world population is still growing. And a growing population will require more energy in the form of oil to sustain it. With our ever-increasing demand for oil, 1 trillion barrels of oil will not even last 30 years, as our consumption of oil will only INCREASE in the following decades.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 06:10:17

DesuMaiden wrote: There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil.


Desu, You are being anthrocentric. There is something very good about peak oil if you are any member of any of the other millions of species on the planet.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Pops » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 06:44:41

Ibon wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil.


Desu, You are being anthrocentric. There is something very good about peak oil if you are any member of any of the other millions of species on the planet.

And you, Ibon, are being elitist. Pretending psuedo-animistic religion from your perch atop a pile of assets gained from grinding those millions underfoot just like all the rest of us.

It just doesn't ring true.

Not that it's new around here or in the rich world in general to pretend concern for "millions of species" when your every comfort (leave alone survival) is attended to by all the anthrocentric people out there grinding up those millions for your benefit - directly or indirect.

Let them eat cake!

. :P
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 07:23:38

Pops wrote:
Ibon wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: There is nothing good about running out of oil because literally everything is dependent on oil.


Desu, You are being anthrocentric. There is something very good about peak oil if you are any member of any of the other millions of species on the planet.

And you, Ibon, are being elitist. Pretending psuedo-animistic religion from your perch atop a pile of assets gained from grinding those millions underfoot just like all the rest of us.

It just doesn't ring true.

Not that it's new around here or in the rich world in general to pretend concern for "millions of species" when your every comfort (leave alone survival) is attended to by all the anthrocentric people out there grinding up those millions for your benefit - directly or indirect.

Let them eat cake!

. :P


My poop smells no better than Desu's or yours Pops. Nothing we are doing here makes us in any way independent from all those anthrocentric people grinding those millions of which I also benefit. That is certainly true.

That is the reason that I have put my assets into preserving a reserve rather than trying to build a permaculture alternative. I could say that my loyalty is not with my own species resilience but rather in helping protect those pockets of intact ecosystems remaining that will one day serve to recolonize the wasteland we leave behind. I could say that is what I am doing here at Mount Totumas. But as you say even that wouldn't really ring true. Just look at all the resources required to give a guest here a couple of days of cloud forest wilderness. Even if we are off the grid with a pelton wheel and doing all those cool sexy things.

I claim no pretense or such noble mission. I really just like to watch birds and collect bugs. And share this with those that wander up here. And of course fantasize about how the Overshoot Predator will one day soon manifest.

Am I a misanthrop? Perhaps. I don't really like the human species but I am really nice to the specimens (guests) and we spoil the specimens (folks) who make it up here and provide them a wonderful experience.

It is not inconsistent nor a contradiction to have abhorrence for your species at the same time as you can love the specimens that are members thereof.

To celebrate the species decline as you weep the loss of those specimens that have touched your life.

This species/specimen conundrum is much on my mind lately.

Maybe its because I spend so much time pinning bugs......

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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Pops » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 08:29:22

Ibon wrote:Am I a misanthrop? Perhaps.

Yeah, but a likable one, all in all.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 11:29:20

I don't know Ibon. From a purely selfish point of view, I'd rather spend my last days stuffed into a good ole' American doomstead:

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You can keep your tropical paradise :razz:
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 11:30:46

Poor Flutterby - how can you do that?
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 11:39:51

pstarr wrote:I don't know Ibon. From a purely selfish point of view, I'd rather spend my last days stuffed into a good ole' American doomstead:


You can keep your tropical paradise :razz:
Image


I don't know Pstarr, those birdwatchers are watching the courtship of three wattled bellbirds and their binoculars are getting all steamy and we aren't seeing whats going on from the waste down on this photo are we? Don't under estimate what's going on behind those old growth trees.
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Re: Peak Oil Is Coming -- and Why You Should Love It

Unread postby careinke » Tue 21 Oct 2014, 17:38:04

Deputy Barnes wrote:Peak Oil is Coming And You Should Love It... If you are a masochist who enjoys the thought of being raped and cannibalized by your local varsity football team/volunteer fire department/gang members, etc.


I plan to mitigate that by becoming a feudal Lord. 8)
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