[Revi]

Here's a film we are working on that will interest a wider audience:

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/14 ... love-story

Please help us to make it a reality.

[AdamB]

An excellent promo! A little late if peak oil indeed happen back in 2005 as Jeff Brown has insisted, and funding for this might face a head wind in light of the current flood of oil on the market, with no end in sight to shale development globally, but still, a wonderful promo!

[AdamB]

An excellent promo! A little late if peak oil indeed happen back in 2005 as Jeff Brown has insisted, and funding for this might face a head wind in light of the current flood of oil on the market, with no end in sight to shale development globally, but still, a wonderful promo!

All nonsense Adam. Jeffrey Brown is a serious petroleum engineer who has analysed Saudi net-export declines since 2005, not global peak.

Jeff isn't an engineer. He's a geologist. Jeff was arguing just a month or three back that peak had already happened, and I've provided the link somewhere in a post at this site to his commentary on just that. And Jeff said Saudi Arabia would be in the midst of some catastrophic export crisis in 2006. He just didn't say it would be because of price, but volume. Oops.

More facts! Better sources!

His Export Land Model is a critical component of peak oil studies. As per tight-shale: there is no measurable production to market outside the US.

The ELM is useless if the user only assumes oil production is declining. Have Jeff show you his prejection of Texas oil production, back when he was modeling it as a bell shaped curve. See what it looks like now.

As far as outside the US, a few sort years ago there wasn't much INSIDE the US. Such amazing changes in just a few years, so riddle me this. If the US can come up with 2 big shale fields that are the largest producing oil producers in the western hemisphere, how many can the rest of the world find, when prices give them a wee bit more latitude to do so?

Right now, those who want to predict only decline (as did those who called it poorly a decade ago by making that mistake) have to answer that question before they can then predict only decline and pretend the world might end all over again.

Haven't seen Heinberg attempt this yet, in order to kickstart another cycle of peak oil fear, do you have any insider information that he might soon?

[ennui2]

it is not and never was a global liquids peak call.

Adam rightfully criticized the attempt by peakers to split hairs over grades of oil which doesn't really make much difference in the final cost at the pump.

Either I miss your point

You missed the point, conveniently. What you did here was just knock over the pieces, and fly away.

[eugene]

Seems to me there are hair splitters everywhere which is a very nice way to make the world fit your view points or to quiet the raging anxiety in your gut. Hair splitting takes such focus. One has to get so intent on the minute details. And the broader reality gets lost.
But don't worry, focus on some detail which blocks out raging population growth, national debt growing at unsustainable levels, rapid climate change and environmental degradation everywhere. Me, I'm a so called "doomer". One of those that looks out there and says "holy shit, looks bad to me". But that doesn't sell well in the land of infinite optimism.

[ennui2]

There's nothing wrong with being "long" on doom. Wasn't Malthus "long" on doom? Isn't the Club of Rome "long" on doom?

The problem I see here is an insistence that there's only two ways to look at doom, either nigh, or cornucopianism. Revising the doom-o-meter to push Mad Max doom off 10+ years is tantamount to being a cornucopian.

A big part of this is a sort of tacit acknowledgment of psychology, that unless doom feels "nigh", nobody does anything. If the main motivation of a doomer in raising the red flag is mitigation (i.e. Hirsch Report style, a truly noble goal) then you have to create enough of a sense of imminent danger to coax people into action. But if you push the panic button too hard and bad predictions come and go you will just get labeled a Chicken Little and set the "movement" back more than if you never said anything at all.

The issue of human psychology ignoring long-term consequences is insurmountable.

[Revi]

This film is not going to be too "doomy". I think of it as a way to get the message out without being too dark about it.

I think Nelson has done a great job on the promo. Now he needs some help making the film a reality. We have a lot of footage, but we need to organize it into a film that will interest not just us "peakists", but a wider audience.

What do you think?

[GHung]

This film is not going to be too "doomy". I think of it as a way to get the message out without being too dark about it.

I think Nelson has done a great job on the promo. Now he needs some help making the film a reality. We have a lot of footage, but we need to organize it into a film that will interest not just us "peakists", but a wider audience.

What do you think?

What do I think? I think most folks don't want to know. Sorry about that, but I keep coming across guys like this:

My heating oil savings are paying for a Disney trip
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/22/news/ec ... -stack-dom

If you had any doubt about whether lower oil prices are benefiting American households, then you probably aren't one of the 6.5 million homeowners who use heating oil.

Nationwide, the average price of heating oil has fallen to around $2 a gallon, half the price it was at in early 2014. Natural gas has dropped even more.

It's all been precipitated by the dramatic collapse of crude oil prices from over $100 a barrel two years ago to about $30 today.

For homeowners like Matt Coffy, who owns a small advertising business in New Jersey, it's been a windfall.

On a snowy afternoon earlier this month, he welcomed the heating oil delivery guy with open arms. The price per gallon on this day: just $1.52. He dug out an older bill from April 2013 when it was $3.45.

"I mean down to $1.50 is just insane," says Coffy. "(Heating oil prices are) not a concern anymore, it's a regular bill."



With a 1,000-gallon tank to refill every few months, he estimates he's saving up to $10,000 per year. He plans to reinvest some of those savings in his business and perhaps hire more people. He's also taking his kids, Sean, 11, and Kristen, 9, on a surprise trip to Disneyland.

What a difference a year makes -- this time last year he was planning to sell his second car, a gas-guzzling 2005 Nissan Armada. Now he's hanging onto it. It helps that he's also paying less for gasoline at the pump.

The Coffys are doing exactly what many economic experts want them to -- Spending the money they save from lower oil prices. .....

This jerk never mentions spending those savings on getting off of heating oil and increasing his efficiency. Think peak oil will ever be on his list of priorities before his family ends up freezing their asses off? Hell no. They're going to Disneyland!

[ennui2]

We need diesel.

That's the new panic? Wake me up when the trucks stop dead on the interstates. You are seriously stretching on this one.

[Revi]

I think you guys are getting a little too worked up. I agree that the fuel that frack ing provides is gasoline. In abundance. We aren't getting much other stuff. The whole thing is going down soon enough. Let them go to Disneyland. That's pretty much where everyone is living anyway. Meanwhile I spent the last week sugaring, getting exercise and getting ready for production of a product that might be useful if the world goes to hell. We will be able to put it stuff, trade with it etc. Who doesn't like maple syrup? If the world is going to go down we may as well have pancakes for a little while...

Meanwhile we are getting the film together. Any input? I think it will be an amusing look at this kooky guy who is obsessed with peak oil. I have even offered to not talk about peak oil to anyone who donates $100. My wife took me up on that offer immediately! All she has to say is kickstarter and I'll stop talking about peak oil immediately. Not a bad deal for her!

[AdamB]

Yes AdamB, "Jeff" isn't an engineer, he is a professional petroleum geologist. I stand corrected.

I am glad you learned something today.

Brown's specific analysis shows that globally <45 api petroleum (not all liquids as you suggest) is past peak.

Fortunate indeed then that oil consists of densities above such a number, and while cherry picking a density or oil type of color or production method will allow me to create a peak of that sub-type whenever I might want, that isn't the peak of interest, but of all the oil and whatnot that we turn into consumer products.

Do you think that Jeff's experience as a petroleum geologist has not included in refining capabilities, and this inexperience leads to his error in this regard?

And none of this matters to Revi and his wonderful film debut, unless he plans on putting Jeff in the film, and if he does, maybe Revi can recommend he stop cherry picking only oil densities he likes, and use the full suite available for making the consumer products we all use?

[Revi]

Here is the kickstarted project again.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1421060864/peak-oil-a-love-story?ref=nav_search

Check it out!

[Revi]

Here's the promo on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owUIkQJ_btM

[AdamB]

I think you guys are getting a little too worked up. I agree that the fuel that frack ing provides is gasoline. In abundance. We aren't getting much other stuff.

What?! Sure we get other stuff...here is what we use natural gas to manufacture. I recommend using some in your automobile, it displays a wonderful Noack number, when blended properly.

The whole thing is going down soon enough.

Well, we've heard this one before,and to be honest Revi, we're all still waiting. If it goes down, it sure doesn't look like oil is going to be the thing that does it.

Let them go to Disneyland. That's pretty much where everyone is living anyway. Meanwhile I spent the last week sugaring, getting exercise and getting ready for production of a product that might be useful if the world goes to hell. We will be able to put it stuff, trade with it etc. Who doesn't like maple syrup? If the world is going to go down we may as well have pancakes for a little while...

Absolutely! And because it isn't oil that will stop us from eating pancakes, we can have them flown or trucked to maybe even road trip out to New England to eat them right there where the syrup comes from?

But the oil fears of a decade ago just aren't holding together very well. Now...climate change! That might be the NEW peak oil, the only problem being, it operates on a much longer frequency. No one has been able to even scare ocean front property owners away from their real estate yet, let alone stopped others from buying it, and with another 4 or 5 inches of sea level rise in the next 85 years, it might not even be scary enough in our lifetime, let alone the useful life of a dwelling by the ocean.

But we can hope, right?

Meanwhile we are getting the film together. Any input? I think it will be an amusing look at this kooky guy who is obsessed with peak oil. I have even offered to not talk about peak oil to anyone who donates $100. My wife took me up on that offer immediately! All she has to say is kickstarter and I'll stop talking about peak oil immediately. Not a bad deal for her!

I wouldn't cast it as "the kooky guy". When the eggheads began to fear being associated with peak oil, and TOD imploded in 2013, you could just see what was going to happen next. Just subsitute "Harold Camping" for "that peak oil kooky guy" and half your audience will chuckle politely and move along right there.

Maybe a contrast, between your basic life with little or no oil inputs, and the world as it exists, luxuriating in abundance and low cost, and polite mentions about how it can't go on forever, and is expected to get more expensive and less available over the next half century or so? Need to avoid the pitfalls made by the doomsayers, and stick to hard core, technical facts, why oil is abundant and has exceeded all expectations, how it might be able to stay cheap for a decade or two more but after that...could get pricey! Speculate on the consequences, within 20 years there will be a few less travelers to New England for syrup, road trips might get a little pricier, and mention your EV, that is always a good example of New England ingenuity, even if most folks are thinking about buying jet skiis and dirt bikes and whatnot because electrics just haven't been able to fill that niche yet.

[Revi]

Great suggestions Adam B!

We are getting away from making any predictions in this film, but it is a way to get people to become more aware of the sea of oil they are floating on.

We'll see what happens. I have a feeling that the financial debacle is what people will feel most intensely.

The peak oil problem may be underneath it all, but only a tiny fraction of people will know that.

[AdamB]

We'll see what happens. I have a feeling that the financial debacle is what people will feel most intensely.

We have financial debacle's every 4 years, we call those elections. And then we have market cycles, and it has debacled more times than a cat has lives. And the last one, supposed to be yet another end of the world, turned into not much but a wonderful market buying opportunity for those who waited for the sheeple to flee the market and then jumped in at the bottom.

Hell, nowadays a financial debacle could be sending a kid to college.

The peak oil problem may be underneath it all, but only a tiny fraction of people will know that.

Or the peak oil problem may be completely irrelevant to the entire mess, just another commodity, reacting to the interaction of supply and demand just as it has for centuries now, with no relevance to absolute amounts at any one point in time, only the relative relationship between the two. Now...people borrowing money and doing stupi things with their investments, now THAT has the potential to hurt folks...hopefully banksters because the rest of us know better than to play with derivatives and whatnot.