[theluckycountry]

Consider a movie camera. Not a modern one, but an old one, an 80 year old one. Just for the celluloid film alone you would need a silver mine and a refinery and then a refiners to get the highgrade silver needed. Then other mines and factories to produce the chemicals needed in the emulsion. Then a factory to made the filmbase itself and apply the emulsion to it. Then you have the film, and you still need a camera, the more complex of the two.

A modern digital camera starts with microchips made from hi-grade silicon. Electronic grade silicon must be at least 99.9999999% pure.




The chip plant is the more complex part of the operation,

TSMC in December tripled its planned investment at the Arizona chip plant, which began construction late last year, to $40 billion.

But just the reactor that creates the ultra pure silicon sausages costs Billions. And of course the supply chains and ancillary mines and factories to make these possible are... Not something you want to think about.

All this has happened in the last 100 years of the oil age. The first photographic film was on glass plates. But I assume even then a lot of oil or coal was employed. Even making large volumes of glass is impractical without oil or coal. Cement? Forget it.



PeakOil is You

[AdamB]

There is no "PeakOil debate" among those in the know, only between those who watch TV all day and have their heads filled with Lies and misdirection.

You don't know anything about peak oil other than whatever dunderhead you read online spoon fed you in small words. You don't even know enough to know what the lies or misdirection involved might be.

It's why all the PeakOil sites packed up and went home.

Really? I was around and posting on nearly all of them back in the day...and while they were certainly happily participating in disseminating lies and misdirection, one of two things happened, 1) they dried up and blew away after the claimed peak oils happened and no one noticed and 2) they morphed into more sustainably oriented topics/issues...because the world didn't end with any of the peak oils they fell for like you did for neoNazi philospohsies because you think Adolf was a great guy.

Where were you back then, just getting into goose stepping in jackboots with your new friends?

It was a done deal in 2008 and people had better things to do with their time. I certainly did!

2008 was #4 of the century, #6 in 2018 is the current one. Stop being a putz with facts.

Well sixteen years have passed since then and we are in the End Game of this show. Time to grab the popcorn and watch the final innings so to speak

Yes..you fell for it...we get it. Apparently you fall for everything, and now its being a nazi sympathizer...cool...next you'll be a Moonie or something.

In one breath you talk about how great things have been since 2008 and the other that peak oil is ending the world. 16 years ago. Take a year, think about it, decide which it is and do try and get it right this time.

[theluckycountry]

Conventional world crude oil production leveled in 2005, and peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe's International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). We get 90% of our petroleum from conventional oil. Mar 24, 2024

Established fact. Now we move on to accounting tricks

Production data including these other liquids is usually referred to as "Total Liquids Production", "Petroleum & Other Liquids", etc. Under this definition (crude and condensate), total world oil production in 2023 averaged 81,804,000 barrels per day.

natural Gas liquids (plastic bags) Other liquids? Refinery processing gains (magic happening there)

What they have done is simply added a lot of other products that are not oil and claimed they are oil. On top of this you have the fact that a lot of conventional oil is now diverted from running the world to running the oil business itself. Mining Shale oil and fracking of oil and Gas (other liquids) is extremely inefficient and vast amounts of oil are consumed getting it out of the ground. Deep sea is similarly an energy hog and at a certain point these become so energy intensive it doesn't make sense to go after them. Seven of the eight U.S. shale basins are past peak with only the Permian producing the majority of fracked oil now. Yes they added a lot to GDP, a trillion dollars and more of bullshit financial GDP. Loans that will never be repaid, shares sold (the value added to GDP) that are worthless.

All the revised peakoil dates are based on these phoney accounting tricks. It's a bit like the American Social Security fund. It has nearly 3 trillions in it, all kept as printouts of US Treasury debt (Bonds) held in a filing cabinet. There is no Social Security Trust fund, it's just an accounting trick and when the US defaults on its debt it will vanish like a turd down a toilet. Then AdamB will be polishing and selling apples and rusty bicycles on the street corner in the hope of getting enough for dinner that night. Just like in Russia when the USSR collapsed. Whole generations thrown under the bus.

Lease condensate: Light liquid hydrocarbons recovered from lease separators or field facilities at associated and non-associated natural gas wells. After it is separated at the well or lease facility, condensate is then transported to crude refineries and processed along with crude oils or is used as a feedstock in the production of petrochemicals and plastics. Lease condensate comprises mostly pentanes, hexanes

The other categories are not transportation fuels, so they don’t matter, they won’t keep trucks running. Or locomotives and ships. Mainly the other categories are good for plastics, which we have more than enough of. Or ethanol for gasoline, but you’d destroy a diesel engine if you added it (diesohol). I suspect these categories were added to keep people from panicking like they did in the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. Why would they panic? There is a very tight correlation between fossil production, GDP, and population.

Of course, we don't want PANIC! We don't want ques at the supermarkets and the Gold brokers. Accounting tricks, like the GDP itself. A political statistic to keep people from realizing that they could be homeless in a months time. Every time Elon Muck borrows a few tens of billions it's added to GDP. Every time a consumer insures a car or a house or borrows money on a CC it's added to GDP. Only a complete idiot would believe that figure matters now. 60 years ago sure, we had honest accounting back then, but not now. The entire global financial system is one big Grift and since Oil powers the World it's in on the Grift too

Why are you're kids still living at home and not out experiencing life like when we were young? Because the can't afford it. The times of plenty are over, PeakOil in 2008 has decimated the World's economies already, and it's barely started!


PeakOil is You

https://www.eia.gov/international/data/ ... production

[AdamB]

Conventional world crude oil production leveled in 2005, and peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe's International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). We get 90% of our petroleum from conventional oil. Mar 24, 2024

Established fact. Now we move on to accounting tricks

Fact. You can't define conventional oil. Here is a list of all global oil benchmark prices. Feel free to point out those that are conventional from those that aren't. I'm guessing that picking from a list requires an intellect capable of graduating high school, so I know I am putting you at a huge disadvantage...but you've got the entire internet to figure it out and we know you can surf all sorts of irrelevant things...try and find a single relevant one and prove that a 9th grade education is good enough if you are Australian.

Oil production by region since 1989 showing 2018 peak.

Run along child.

[AdamB]

Yeah, but that 2013 PO date they're hawking is just going to make the public yawn and say, "Oh, we've got a few years. Why worry now?"

Turns out that would be quite a good thing considering what happened next, right?

[AdamB]

This is the first article I've ever see on BBC News Online which directly addresses PO....

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm

Wow. The article in the link is still active. Not particularly exciting or anything new for the time period, but considering how most of the internet hucksters on the topic tucked tail and ran after awhile..wow.

[AdamB]

I Sounds like fun. Get ALL your facts togather Matt, because Corsi is a good debater..

Facts? There is really only one central to this debate: 40,000 oil fields across the world and not a single one shows any sign of refilling.

The idea that anyone would think fields are refilling in a measurable way is entertaining, in that even in places where a current "kitchen" is in operation, (I believe the GOM fits that criteria) measuring the rate would be quite the challenge.

Any petroleum geologist would give a little chuckle at someone using this strawman, without the ability to measure it the entire claim is just bait.

Matt was always a good example of how a reasonable and intelligient person, not having done much research beyond what they found or heard on the internet, can fool themselves into thinking they know something about minor techical topics. I honestly believe he thought he knew this topic.

He revealed what he thought of the sycophantic crowd he created at LATOC when he shut the place down and was quite verbally demeaning in his opinion of the suckers followers he managed to accumulate up until then.

[theluckycountry]

When you look at the true date of PeakOil back in 2008 it becomes clear the World fundamentally changed thereafter. In a manner very similar to how living standards in America began to collapse after their own 1970' peak, living standards around the Globe began to decline after 2008. That was the Global financial crisis, triggered by $150 a barrel oil, the collapse of housing bubbles worldwide and the beginning of some of the lowest interest rates in recorded history.

The error of the cornucopian is that they look for a total collapse and if they don't see it they say "Ah Ha! Told you so, the doomers were wrong." This is just nonsense, none of the early proponents of the peakoil theory claimed such a think would happen, they said we would go down the slope of post Peak prosperity, that oil prices would be volatile. And that's exactly what we see.

US Diesel production is greater today than it ever was I believe but this is because 40% of America's Corn crop is being diverted to Biofuels. This is not oil, it's Corn. Just like fuel can be made from coal at great expense. You'll have oil but it won't make your nation prosperous like in the period 20th century. And the cost! Massive inputs of fertilizer and Ground Water, both limited by nature.

“Since the mid-20th century, when large-scale irrigation began, water levels in the stretches of the Ogallala underlying Kansas have dropped an average 28.2 feet farther below the surface, far worse than the eight-state average of 16.8 feet,”

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/202 ... nities-ag/

It's a problem, many farms all over the nation have seen their wells run dry and then you have a dust bowl. How are you going to make diesel without water for the corn? Biofuels are unsustainable, they are just more smoke and mirrors, like the borrowing of trillions of dollars from future earnings to prop up earnings today they are borrowing future water in essence. This is all part of the collapse due to PeakOil but it takes decades to play out. When the end comes you may well see a precipitous decline in oil production but it will likely be spurred by general poverty when the financial house of cards comes tumbling down.

A debate is where two groups thrash out the possibilities of an event but the theory of PeakOil is now proven fact, there is no debate. It's more solid than the Theory of Evolution in fact and no one questions that. Why do people believe the Lies about peak oil? Because they are a mass of insecurities and can't face reality, can't imagine life without two cars in the driveway and shopping mall at their beck and call.



It's why they bought expensive electric cars, they were told that was the future of Mall travel when oil runs out, they jumped in believing all the lies about range and a reliable national charging network. All they did was squander another chance to get out from under their debt burdens. They borrow as much as they can believing that if they are all in the same boat the "Government" won't let them fail.

Young people, seeing how bad it was out in the real world took on student loans to hide in classrooms working on Gender studies, AfroAmerican studies, Human Movement studies. Then when they came out and couldn't find a job they cried to the government to let them off the hook. What did government say?

President Joe Biden Outlines New Plans to Deliver Student Debt Relief to Over 30 Million Americans Under the Biden-⁠Harris Administration. ...borrowers who originally took out $12,000 or less in loans and have been in repayment for 10 years are eligible to get their remaining debt canceled

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... istration/

President Biden from Day One has worked to fix the student loan system and make sure higher education is a ticket to the middle class – not a barrier to opportunity – because he knows that debt cancellation not only benefits borrowers, it benefits the entire economy.

The ever shrinking middle class? Political lies, I don't even read them in the normal course of my life. And why should I? I'm not dependent on them, I have no debt, The 20th century infrastructure isn't going away because the 21st century replacements are all garbage. That's why China has in a mere 40 years overtaken America. It burns coal to make solar panels to sell to Americans.

So much for Bio Diesel and all the other alternatives (to prosperity)

[mousepad]

The chip plant is the more complex part of the operation,

yes. It always amazes me how something so technologically advanced can work reliably. The complete chip supply chain with involved technology is simply awe inspiring. And on the same continent as you have highest high tech wafer fabs, you have stick built houses slapped together with 2-by-4 and nails protruding out sideways. The contrast!

[AdamB]

When you look at the true date of PeakOil back in 2008 it becomes clear the World fundamentally changed thereafter.

When you look at the maximum amount of oil produced on this planet in 2018, you discover that folks trying to fill in other dates are just being silly. Or don't know the difference between a larger number...and a smaller one.

As for "fundamentally changed" that would depend on the relative concept of "changed".

Cars got more expensive after Covid, that "changed" the world. As did the invention of refrigeration. Pick your topic of interest and someone who doesn't understand how relative terms are usually the hobgoblin of little minds are revealed. Or Australians.

The error of the cornucopian is that they look for a total collapse and if they don't see it they say "Ah Ha! Told you so, the doomers were wrong."

The error of midget minds is that they fill in the blanks for those they don't like and say stupid shit. I can prove peak oil doomers were wrong quite easily...as doomers were in some cases quite specific about what peak oil would cause, and when. And then were wrong.

I notice that those little minds certainly have no response when I reference just those sources. Hence even littler minds than the half wits who made a specific claim in the first place.

This is all part of the collapse due to PeakOil but it takes decades to play out.

That is certainly the not perspective of those little minds who made the proclamations that peak oil would be near instant. And those folks graduated high school...and then some. After the fact revisionists trying to keep an idea going that has been around since 1886 or 1919 depending on which source you prefer obviously claim AFTER THE FACT exactly what you are. Refuse to learn the history of a topic, and you too can look like an uneducated neonazi.

I have found it all quite amusing, your revisionism of their precision, and rarely are there any folks involved pointing out even the most basic history on the topic. It is easier to be a revisionist if you are ignorant of that history. It is easy to make fun of a revisionist when they are ignorant in general. If they are a nazi supporter then, well, it is all just easier.

A debate is where two groups thrash out the possibilities of an event but the theory of PeakOil is now proven fact, there is no debate.

A true statement! Peak oil as defined right there in wiki took place in 2018. It was #6 claimed or occurred this century. Can you stop harping on the stupid stuff now?

[ralfy]

"Peak Oil Production: Did We Reach It in 2018?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ETjBWBhUTs

[AdamB]

"Peak Oil Production: Did We Reach It in 2018?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ETjBWBhUTs

I know. Anyone who can make a graph knows. #6 this century, claimed or occurred. You know this history Ralphy, you fell for just about every one of them, one after another while being one of those LATOC groupies...and then getting called names by Matt for being that gullible.

[theluckycountry]

"Peak Oil Production: Did We Reach It in 2018?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ETjBWBhUTs

Well if you want to count in Hundreds of Billions of plastic bags and other crap made from Ethane, then sure, 2018, 2022, pick a date.

What are natural gas liquids and how are they used?
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
— Ethane occupies the largest share of NGL field production. It is used almost exclusively to produce ethylene, which is then turned into plastics ...

But plastic bags don't build up an industrial society do they, they just wrap consumer goods and ultimately pollute the World's Oceans.

[AdamB]

Well if you want to count in Hundreds of Billions of plastic bags and other crap made from Ethane, then sure, 2018, 2022, pick a date.

For the record, and for the non-American uninformed neonazis, crude oil is not ethane. Or propane. Or butane. And 2018 world peak oil was of crude oil and lease condensate according to the EIA, lease condensate being C5+ pentanes...and as anyone not from Australia knows...crude oil starts with the heavier pentanes (C5).

If you are going to pretend you know something by quoting the EIA (because you sure don't know anything yourself on the topic), at least read more of their work so you don't make all Australian neonazis look so ignorant. There are appearances to be kept up, how is anyone going to take them seriously when they've got sychophants like you in their club?

Now, if you meant to confuse crude oil and lease condensate with HGLs, that would be perfectly normal for...say...some of the modern podcaster types, I believe Art "there is no significant oil in US shales" circa 2011 Berman made a similar butane lighter and plastic bag angle on Nate "peak oil happened in 2005" Hagen's podcast within the last year or so.

Polly want a cracker? Again?

[theluckycountry]

The Adam's Family

"You want a used Nissan Leaf! Say it SAY IT!"

[AdamB]

The Adam's Family

"You want a used Nissan Leaf! Say it SAY IT!"

I never told you HOW my Leaf came about did I? You see, you seem to specialize in talking about things and places you have no experience with or education of, whereas I tend to stick with experiences, research, the natural and physical sciences that have been my entire professional career, etc etc.

But this is a personal story! I was shopping for an EV, cars were cheap in Covid..before they exploded in price. The lack of demand had crashed prices here in the US, and I was looking to take advantage of it. Specifically, a BMW i3. These $40G+ cars were going used for $11-14G...they were quick handling, had really cool-neato interiors, excellent right now acceleration, just like the coolest little pod cars.

Then when I discovered that BMW hardly has a reputation for Japanese build quality, be it their motorcycle final drive assemblies for the past 10-15 years, or various little bits on these I3's, including the range extender 2 cylinder, which was my favorite. So I gave up...and then one day I found this little cheapo Leaf, 30k miles on it, carfax said no accidents, it had some decent options and no leather, which was good. Told the wife I was going to test drive it...did....nothing special about it, it didn't have the Beemers quick steering, the BMW had better acceleration, there was obviously no range extender on the Leaf, the Beemer had slightly more range, and leather, and so it went.

Went home after the test drive and told the wife..."meh". She asked what was wrong with it...and I said "nothing" and she said why the "meh". "Because the Beemer was COOL and ZIPPY and the Leaf was just...a cage. Built by a cage company, drove like a cage. She said, "well, I want to drive it". Fine. I set up another test ride the next day...took it out to the mall, let her drive, she drove around, got out and said "seems like a completely normal car" and I said...."EXACTLY! The Beemer is COOL....this is just a cage."

She asked how much they both were. She asked what we were buying it for. I told her...cheap cage, no fuel, she got free fuel at work and this thing had a bigger battery so we wouldn't even need to charge it much from home, my other EV could cool its heels for cross continental trips. She said "and this car does all those things for $5G less than the Beemer and was built by a car company building cars rather than some eye candy with a reputation for crappy reliability and expensive parts? Just go buy the thing".

So I did. 3-1/2 years now and I've put a set of tires on it. Added some windshield wiper fluid. Probably going to get the transaxle fluid changed here this winter....and that will be the only liquid hydrocarbons I've used on the thing since I bought it. 40k miles maybe? Current SOC is about 86%? Don't drive it in snow, traction control on my two EVs is draconian. 4.4 miles/kwh in 50F+ temps, in winter it gets as low as 3.5 miles/kwh.

So what is your experience with EVs Lucky? You talk about them as though you know something about them? Like tight tracks, math, logic, critical thinking, and political leanings that doesn't involve Heil Hitler salutes with other nazi fanbois. Tell us about that experience...does your arm get tired? Are jackboots uncomfortable? Etc etc...

[AdamB]

The BBC piece is by Adam Porter who has been writing on PO and energy for some time. Way to go, Adam!

Why thank you Bart!

[AdamB]

I Sounds like fun. Get ALL your facts togather Matt, because Corsi is a good debater..

Facts? There is really only one central to this debate: 40,000 oil fields across the world and not a single one shows any sign of refilling.

Oh Matt, you were always a sly devil. And quite thoroughly discredited across the board in terms of your geoscience understanding, but I imagine it felt good in the moment, the fame that came with being (as we now know) the most uninformed lawyer on oil and gas topics in the history of the known world! Can't say some didn't try and warn you.

You were quoted in Congress! And turning that into a astrology/palm reading career that launched you into substitute teacherhood in California? Hopefully none of your students ever asked you a question about oil? Or gas. Or drilling. Or about the US draft. Or 9/11. Or reserve growth. And so on and so forth.

[AdamB]

I didnt even think of Matt Savinar. I think George Noory listened to my idea. He asked Matt to come back for a round table debate last night with Corsi. Corsi told me he would do another debate anytime. Sounds like fun. Get ALL your facts togather Matt, because Corsi is a good debater. Corsi tried to pull that oil doesnt come from dinosaur crap against Rupport, so tell him DUH !!!!. I gave round to Corsi when he went against Rupport. Corsi's BS shined through on that occasion.

I will not debate Corsi. He is a neocon operative tied directly to Bush and Cheney.

An alternate explanation being that he might know something about oil and gas and holy cow batman, you would have been revealed as an ambulance chaser...unemployed at the time...but with hopes of one day chasing one.

I listened to your Coast to Coast talk once....turns out it was the one where you said uranium was a fossil fuel. Always found that one hysterical, but then I don't suppose lawyers are required to know any inorganic chemistry, and all those pesky carbon and hydrogen atoms comprising the various fossil fuels...as compared to...you know....uranium.

Bush and Cheney likely saw Ruppert as an immerging threat. They dispatched Corsi to debate him.Same for Scott Ritter.

Historical review time!

Bush and Cheney likely didn't have a clue who Ruppert was, unlike you and I. Ruppert was really good at the yellow jounalism thing, quite excellent. Remember when his main source for 9/11 was a convicted child molester currently spending life in prison in a Colorado jail? You would think that kind of credibility hit would matter to a lawyer, wouldn't you? And as far as Scott, if it weren't for him being another convicted sex fiend of some sort maybe he would have some credibility? Of course, we are talking about Ruppert, himself involved in some quite suspicious shenanigans, and of course his trips to the psyche ward hardly helped. Do you think he ever paid the $125k he owed his female employee for being sexually whackadoodle in his underwear that one time?

But Matt you managed to not get arrested for anything, probably met some hot chics while palm reading and star gazing with them, and being a substitute teacher sure seems like a better future than your various compatriots managed for themselves.

The good ol' days for sure. Prior to everyone's character being discovered anyway.

[theluckycountry]

Peak oil is PeakOil Production. Not Demand, Not PeakPlastic, Not peak Coal to oil, and certainly not Peak Shale well oil. Fracked oil, like oil made from coal, is manufactured oil. Chemicals are used to produce it and a lot of energy is wasted in the process.

When the original theses of PeakOil was put forward it was based on conventional oil extracted from conventional wells, not oil manufactured from other hydrocarbons. This was important because it is conventional oil that powered our societies for the past 100 years and gave us the amazing standards of living we came to enjoy and that are now slipping through our fingers. Just think of the interstate highway system, the Apollo Program, the vast Navy America and England once fielded. All these were built with abundant conventional oil and since that oil peaked (1970 in America's case) all these amazing achievements have fallen by the wayside. The Navy gutted, the space program gutted, and the roads and bridges have fallen into disrepair.

2007~8 was Global peak oil, it only hastened the decline already in progress in the American project, since before that date they could buy cheap oil from across the globe with their debt money. In fact the rot really set in around 2000 on the way up to the peak. The dotcom crash, the housing bubbles worldwide, all these were a response to ever increasing oil prices. Naturally after the Peak, prices fell because demand was destroyed and, but that didn't change the fact that less and less conventional oil was coming out of those fields. People around the globe simply used less.

Then the confidence games began, hucksters realized that they could frack "unborn oil" and make money. It was never viable as a replacement and has destroyed vast swathes of American soil and water tables in the process. It's a toxic disaster and that is why the US is the only place on Earth that pursued it. The USA is not a nation, but a corporation and corporations don't care about such things as clean water and soil. The States of America do, but under their unique political system they have given nearly all power to the Federal corporation so they have little say in what goes on. The corporation is controlled by the Pharmaceutical and military interests, by the banks and the Food industry, by anyone who can buy a politician in Washington. The politicians themselves are simply stooges to take the blame, in return they are given inside knowledge, allowed to make millions of dollars that they sequester in offshore accounts, just as all the wealthy do.

Vast amounts of conventional Oil has been wasted to extract and process this "tight" oil as they call it. Millions of tons of sand, mined and transported. Untold volumes of chemicals to inject into the wells to allow the gas and oil to flow. And much of the liquid product is not an oil that can be used as conventional oil is used, hence the explosion of plastic bag usage across the World, just at a time when everyone is agreed they need to be phased out. No the standards of living across the globe are declining at an ever faster rate, just as was predicted would happen after PeakOil. None of these new oil sources have mitigated that, if anything they have exacerbated it. In another 20 years poverty will be the norm in America, the concept of "middle-class" will have all but vanished, just as it never existed before the oil boom.

The religion of Progress that the average person embraces, that of mankind from the caves to the stars will come crashing down around their ears. The lights will start to go out all across the planet, as indeed they already are in many nations. The majority of cars will grind to a halt, industry as we know it will collapse and there will be great turmoil in the cities as people struggle to feed themselves (many already are). All this was predicted to happen by the PeakOil proponents back in the early 00's. and all of it is slowly coming to pass as we come down the other side of the hubbert curve.

Shale oil has changed nothing, a quick drive past your local tent city will prove that. Blame it on Covid, Blame it on the ukraine conflict, Blame it anything but what it really is. PeakOil.