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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 06 Jul 2023, 15:01:08

Global Peak Oil to occur by the end of the decade, says International Energy Agency

iea-global-oil-demand-to-peak-before-the-end-of-the-decade

I certainly hope that the IEA is right in their prediction that global oil demand will peak by the end of the decade.

That would be right in line with my prediction, made several years ago, that global peak oil will occur in the 2020s. :)

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Peak Oil is on track to occur in the 2020s........Just as I predicted.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 06 Jul 2023, 16:10:45

Plantagenet wrote:I certainly hope that the IEA is right in their prediction that global oil demand will peak by the end of the decade.

That would be right in line with my prediction, made several years ago, that global peak oil will occur in the 2020s. :)


Plantagenet Tue 30 Oct 2007 wrote:Do you even understand what peak oil is?
There is no way to "get out of it." In fact, we probably already hit global Peak Oil production levels in latest 2005 or 2006.


How about you stick to the fru fru geology, and stop making academics look bad with the same broken record routine of the generally ignorant?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 27 Jul 2023, 17:02:10

The IEA is a political entity and it's prognostications can safely be ignored. Just as one would ignore a political statistic on the unemployment rate, or the inflation rate.

The quoted number of barrels of oil produced today (or oil equivalent as is used now) is irrelevant because so much of it is poured back into the ground to produce more. It's an accounting trick basically because ALL that extra oil is not available to power our civilization, only to power more oil extraction. It's the classic EROEI number for an oil field morphed into EROEI² like the CDO² financial instruments that looked so good in 2007 but all blew up in the GFC.

Only about 60% of a given barrel is useful for powering the world, the rest is too light or too heavy. It's good for making roads etc but that 40% is therefore an energy sink, since energy is needed to refine and transport the product. Out of the 60% you have a lot of Petrol,
And while gasoline is useful in maintaining our frivolous car-centric lifestyles, it contributes little to nothing to uphold a stable flow of raw materials and energy into the economy. Viewed through this narrow lens, the really useful, economically vital energy content of oil is actually a rather small portion (20–30%)
see link below.

So out of this limited percentage a large chunk is used up just extracting things like fracked oil. This as you can see skews the EROEI even more since if the return on a shale play is 3:1, yet you only get 1/3 out of a given barrel as diesel to perform all the work, It's break even, or an energy sink. That is why the tight oil plays never made a red cent, why the investors lost their capital. Most of the money was consumed buying the essential energy to extract roughly an equivalent amount of energy. Obviously included is the energy needed to build trucks, extract and transport frack sand etc, etc.

These "New" peak oil dates are a shell game played by those invested in keeping the status quo going but as is obvious, since the $150 oil peak/GFC the global economy has been floundering and living standards collapsing for many. In that sense the original peak-oil prognostications of the collapse of industrial society is well under way, from the collapse of roads and bridges in the US, to nations like Sri Lanka falling into obscurity, to the blackouts that are more and more prevalent across the globe. We as a global society no longer have the energy to maintain, let alone rebuild, these systems that the abundant oil of the 20th century afforded us, and shell games, like wasting heavy oil diesel imported from the middle east to extract light oil in America with mostly gasoline fractions isn't helping.


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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 27 Jul 2023, 18:36:07

theluckycountry wrote:The IEA .... prognostications can safely be ignored.


IMHO, when examining a technical or financial or scientific question like peak oil, it doesn't make any sense to ignore the work of international agencies like the IEA whose job it is to compile and analyze all global energy data, and then report their predictions on future energy trends. Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions. :lol: 8) :roll:

theluckycountry wrote:These "New" peak oil dates are a shell game played by those invested in keeping the status quo going.....


So when an individual like myself or an international agency set up to analyze global energy like the IEA predict peak oil will happen in the 2020s, that is somehow an attempt to keep the status quo going, even though peak oil will mean a complete disruption of the status quo?

Sorry Lucky, but that also doesn't make any sense to me.

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If you dont' think global peak oil will happen in the 2020s, perhaps you could tell me where future oil supplies will come from to keep global oil production rising into the 2030s and beyond?

And while you are at it, please explain to me how governments will allow oil production to keep rising when CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels is causing the planet to get hotter and hotter?

Thank you so much in advance.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 Jul 2023, 23:02:05

theluckycountry wrote:The IEA is a political entity and it's prognostications can safely be ignored. Just as one would ignore a political statistic on the unemployment rate, or the inflation rate.'

While high school drop outs advocate not listening to anyone educated, I would venture that they are obviously the least qualified to even know who not to listen to.
theluckycountry wrote:The quoted number of barrels of oil produced today (or oil equivalent as is used now) is irrelevant because so much of it is poured back into the ground to produce more. It's an accounting trick basically because ALL that extra oil is not available to power our civilization, only to power more oil extraction.

An interesting concept, something similar was used to claim in the last century that US oil drilling industry wouldn't be able to drill any more oil by the beginning of this one. Congratulations, you have just advocated an idea that failed 23 years ago for a fisheries ecologist with a PhD. Does that make you as smart as him when it comes to net energy predictions, or him the mental equivalent of a high school drop out? I'll bet he doesn't know how to ride kangaroo's though, so you've got that on him.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 Jul 2023, 23:11:38

Plantagenet wrote:So when an individual like myself or an international agency set up to analyze global energy like the IEA predict peak oil will happen in the 2020s.....

Or, alternatively an individual such as yourself just makes stuff up.
Plantagenet wrote on Wed 11 Apr 2007 at peakoil.com wrote:I saw Prof. Deffeyes speak in late 2005, just after he had just predicted peak oil was reached about Thanksgiving 2005.I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production.

Stick to story telling geology Plant, and babysitting the undergrads.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 28 Jul 2023, 09:17:52

Plantagenet wrote:So when an individual like myself or an international agency set up to analyze global energy like the IEA predict peak oil will happen in the 2020s, that is somehow an attempt to keep the status quo going, even though peak oil will mean a complete disruption of the status quo?


Well that depends on what you mean by status quo. When I used the term I was referring to the system whereby the wall street pump and dumpers, the oil companies engaged in fracking, and the government officials backing them have all been growing massively rich by pedaling the idea that we have mountains of oil. We don't. Or at least you over there don't. You just have uneconomic tight oil that should be left in the ground.

What the world does with the remaining economic to extract oil is of no concern to me as I don't live in a nation where human feces is piling up on the sidewalks. Do you know where that is common? Besides in the US. In places like India, second world nations, places with crumbling roads and collapsing bridges. Sound familiar? Yes, the "status quo" you are referring to has already ended. You can blame the collapse of your society, on drugs or politics or anything you like but the simple fact is the US passed it's peak oil moment long ago. If that were not so you would still be enjoying vibrant cities and good roads, safe bridges and low crime like the advanced 1st world nations are.

Several nations are still flush with resources and are doing ok, Australia is one. BTW we toyed with the idea of fracked oil, it was a big story back in 2008 but the government tossed the idea out because it's a dead-end. You just end up destroying your countryside for little of no profit to the nation. As is the US experience. Your oil bonanza is a scam, just another grift pulled on the American public.

A wealthy society provides homes for it's people and doesn't let them live and defecate in the street.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jul 2023, 10:17:50

theluckycountry wrote:Several nations are still flush with resources and are doing ok, Australia is one. BTW we toyed with the idea of fracked oil, it was a big story back in 2008 but the government tossed the idea out because it's a dead-end.

When the quality of your citizens are such that they can't build cars and ferris wheels, it is indeed best to stay away from American invented, American applied high levels of oilfield technology. As far as oil...Australia makes less than 500,000 barrels a day...American makes an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE more, and then double that. And then throw in all the oil..oh...Norway makes on top of it, just because we can. Australia was once one of the world's largest exporters of LNG. Until America decided to produce natural gas as well as oil. Oops. So sure your government toyed with 70 year old American technology, and then decided that without the human capital to get it done, give up instead. Sounds about right....give up, don't even try....the government knows its people well.

theluckycountry wrote:Your oil bonanza is a scam, just another grift pulled on the American public.

Except for all the oil anyway, as it exists in the volumes previously referenced, while your country can't even figure out how to run a process America patented in 1948. They taught you how to READ surely, or at least your high school graduate friends, how hard can it be to decipher English on 70 year old patent applications filed in an office somewhere in the States? Maybe your citizens can't find the States on a map, let alone where the US patent records are held for public viewing?

theluckycountry wrote:A wealthy society provides homes for it's people and doesn't let them live and defecate in the street.

Homeless folks counted in Australia. 122K
Homeless folks counted in America. 582k

Population of Australia. 27 million
Population of America. 331 million

Australia = 221 people per homeless person 0.45% homeless per capita
America = 568 people per homeless person 0.17% homeless per capita.

Australia has 2.6X the homeless problem that America does, regardless of where convenient restrooms are located.

Its called math.(mousepad feel free to check mine) Americans learned it in grade school. Perhaps you just followed government guidelines and gave up without trying like with hydraulic fracturing? Now run back to your Chinese district captain and tell them to send back folks pimping the wonders of your country better, like maybe they can just extol tourism to go look at that big rock y'all are so proud of? Or talk up the national monument where the dingo got the baby?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tuike » Thu 22 Feb 2024, 13:55:15

Buffett-Backed Occidental CEO Says Oil Shortage by 2025 -oilprice
Feb 05, 2024
Warren Buffett-backed Occidental Petroleum is predicting an oil supply shortage by 2025 due to global failure to replace crude reserves at a fast enough pace. “We’re in a situation now where in a couple of years’ time we’re going to be very short on supply,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC at the Smead Investor Oasis Conference in Phoenix, Arizona on Monday.

I think I saw an article a year ago saying there's going to be tight oil market starting in 2023 h2 and into 2024. Might be a false memory. But crisis is always next year.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tuike » Sat 16 Mar 2024, 12:07:52

World needs oil to prevent net zero energy shortages, warns Shell -yahoo
The world is at risk of energy shortages unless more money is invested in drilling for oil and gas, Shell has warned.

The energy giant said global investment in low carbon energy was only half what is needed, meaning the world could be at risk of energy shortages in future unless alternative sources are secured.

Separately, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the world was facing a “slight deficit” of oil this year because of surging US demand and continued production cuts from Opec+ countries
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 16 Mar 2024, 23:20:27

But Adam_B said we would all be driving electric cars and not need oil? Where is Adam_B? Out driving his Tesla(s) perhaps? Enjoying the freedom of the open road, well at least until the battery is half flat, then it's tail between the legs and a slow slow cruise home. Either that or a 4 hour layover at a charger in some back of bumfuck town lol. At least he should be safe from carjackers, every Tesla has a silver lining.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 20:59:20

theluckycountry wrote:But Adam_B said we would all be driving electric cars and not need oil?

So I stop posting for awhile and all you can do is make things up? There is this thing called "memory" you coul use..or a search function here at the site?

I never said any such thing of course. I certainly did say I like both of mine.
theluckycountry wrote: Where is Adam_B? Out driving his Tesla(s) perhaps?

Neither of my electrics are Tesla's. So now that we've established that you aren't any smarter than the last time I posted, perhaps you can go back and finish high school, do memory exercises, etc etc? It isn't like your countries constitution requires its citizens to be backwater hoe-bunkels, right? Since we've discussed my personal transportation already (the actual transportation, not your projection of Tesla jealousy onto me) is yours in shape to get you back to nightschool? Or day school? Well fed and healthy I hope?

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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 22:03:31

So you came crawling back into the forum did you. I see you're tactfully keeping your distance from the ev thread :lol: The one(s) that expose all your failed predictions on the Great EV Transition.

AdamB wrote:Overproduction and overconsumption aren't part of EV manufacturing, normal production (to build said EV) and normal consumption (in buying said EV) are.

But But But
Ford Can't Sell Their Vehicles, So Their Throwing Them Away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF6hDc5ET5M

You really are a sad little unit Adam, sad sad sad. More like the forum dog actually, wandering from thread to thread spotting them with you're excrement.

Here, from that same old thread (now locked of course) is my prediction. While all you ev fan boi were patting each other on the back over past covid sales the tide was already turning but you couldn't see it. Dumb as dogshit.


Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 14
Postby theluckycountry » Sun 11 Jun 2023, 18:32:49

Looks like peak-EV has arrived.
Electrifying the car market may be getting harder. Here's why
the-electric-vehicle-ev-thread-pt-14-t78588-80.html#p1490693

Current events negate every post you have ever made on the subject and bring every other post you ever made into question. In other words adam, you're a failure.
Last edited by theluckycountry on Fri 22 Mar 2024, 22:27:58, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 22 Mar 2024, 22:21:56

P.S. Come back and say what ever you like, you're still on my ignore list and will be until they day you die. 8)
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Mar 2024, 00:08:34

theluckycountry wrote:So you came crawling back into the forum did you.

More like accidently hit the shortcut in the bookmarks bar and noticed that you happened to just be making stuff up again. Couldn't resist. Don't worry though, the project I am currently working on won't be done for another couple months, I'll worry about whatever else you make up then. Maybe. Turns out I get a bunch done when I replace my typing time here with, you know, science and stuff.

theluckycountry wrote:Current events negate every post you have ever made on the subject and bring every other post you ever made into question. In other words adam, you're a failure.


Yeah, the wife tells me that as well. Sounds like you two have things in common...except she graduated high school of course. She wants a Tesla Y as bad as you want to pretend I already own one of the things. They are being sold at a discount right now and I told her 2 EVs are enough. As far as every post I've ever made on the subject, it is amusing that your world is so microscopic and uninformed that you think THIS is the place where people who graduated high school present their published works? That is like you scrawling graffiti on the local kangaroo riding stable wall and thinking it is Hamlet.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mousepad » Sat 23 Mar 2024, 17:16:58

AdamB wrote:the project I am currently working on won't be done for another couple months

You finally got a job, Adam? Good for you. Did you voluntarily go back to work? Or did the EV subsidies from the generous state of Colorado run out and you need to make ends meet? :-)
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 23 Mar 2024, 19:59:33

mousepad wrote:You finally got a job, Adam? Good for you. Did you voluntarily go back to work?


I couldn't imagine living in a nation that was once rich and being poor myself. It explains a lot of his hatred, even my username, "theluckycountry", must be galling to him.

Here, just for you Adam

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