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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 11:48:40

REAL Green wrote:Like an EV is going to save you. Your EV won't get you very far when it breaks and needs repairs but those repairs are not assured if there is economic problems and or gas lines. EV's LOL


I get it. You're a hard-crash doomer. (I find this quaint insofar as there are very few of your kind left in the wild.) As a hard-crash doomer you can set the goalposts wherever you like in order to present a game-over scenario for anyone who uses anything more sophisticated than stone knives and bearskins. But excuse me for not thinking things will get that bad in the short to medium-term. And BTW, if it DOES get that bad then even perfectly self-contained doomsteads will become a target for the eventual mutant zombie biker gangs. So don't fool yourself into thinking you've got things solved just because you know how to use a hand grain mill.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 11:54:11

NG is down to $1.88. That is not enough to pay for the drill bits.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 12:00:15

Revi wrote:[ Why own a car when you can use your cell phone to have one show up when you need it?

Oh sure hop into a car somebody you don't know just took a ride to the doctors in? No thanks. The Uber ride app has just had it's teeth kicked in.
Your future ride maybe a self driving vehicle but it will be yours alone not shared with strangers.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 14:52:42

Why own a car when you can use your cell phone to have one show up when you need it?


Why pump oil at all when it can be purchased for $18 dollars. The US sure picked the wrong time to become the world's largest producer. The $trillions spent to produce that oil would have purchased about a 100 years of supply at today's prices. It is interesting that little is being said in the news about the distress in the oil sector. If the FED tries to prop it up, it will go broke. Oil has a built in 63 to 1 leverage, which works in both directions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 21:06:14

Why would Joe6P switch to an expensive electric car when gasoline is cheaper than bottled water right now?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 03:27:18

Tanada wrote:Why would Joe6P switch to an expensive electric car when gasoline is cheaper than bottled water right now?

Joe sixpack, now laid off, is becoming very cynical and is sure gas prices will not stay cheap for anywhere near as long as the payments on a big ICE pickup will. He won't buy anything at all until he is back to work and by then he will have had months to think about his and the countries future.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 05:54:05

Tanada wrote:Why would Joe6P switch to an expensive electric car when gasoline is cheaper than bottled water right now?



I live in fly over with the so called deplorables. My nearest town from the farm is also a university town with Missouri S&T in Rolla, MO. This means there is a pocket of educated people among small town and country people in a poorer region. There are electric cars around here but not many. This region also has a lot of nice farms that wealthy people have who live in the larger urban areas of Missouri. Some of these people have renewables and EV's but there is not much. I have 3600-watt system and batteries. I don't have an EV. I would like to get a small one for trips to town to get supplies. I would really like to power it with pannels on the farm but the research I did shows it would require a lot of pannels. A small basic pickup would be great but nothing out there yet. A small farm tractor would be great but nothing out there now to speak of. I am not impressed with EV's and the people who think they are green becuase of them but I do feel for green prepping they have merits. The grid around here is mostly fossil fuel supplied so not much carbon savings going electric. EV are more efficient with energy conversion but the life cycle cost of manufacture and battery conversion loss makes the green nature of EVs much less appealing.

My REAL Green instead says try to reduce driving by localizing instead. Having an EV and driving more becuase you think you are green and can is just more of the Jevons paradox combined with dubious green behavior. In fact, it can be argued most EV people are FAKE greens who have money so they can buy fancy toys. It really is something in between because EV will make society more resilient on the trip down the ladder of decline but only a little. The car culture and excessive consumerism is the real problem. Too many people living with too many things can’t easily be fixed. If you are rich and buy an EV you are just a little bit greener than joe 6pack who has much less money and can’t do as much as the wealthy FAKE Green EV guy with lots of stuff and the ability to travel. It is a way of life that can’t be greened up much so the finger pointing at joe 6 pack is just more righteous derision educated wealthy people have always had for poorer people with less education. I am guilty of it too. Very few people I have encountered both in person and on line are very green. I have been studying this for year now with my realgreenadaptation.blog. I am not optimistic about Green in the modern world so what I talk about is relative green or realistic green with humility for those who can’t manage to be TRUE Green. At least try to do something per your life system is my advice. Mix green with prepping has a lot of merit with life getting riskier as Covid has demonstrated. This virus has demonstrated globalism is unstable so this time period is more than a health scare it is a way of life scare. Green prepping deals with both conditions.
realgreenadaptation.blog
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby sparky » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 06:14:02

.
......good post !
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby aspera » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 09:55:18

+10
Oceans rise, empires fall. - Apocalypse Lullaby, Wailin' Jennys.
Plant a garden. Soon.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 21:01:00

REAL Green wrote: it can be argued most EV people are FAKE greens who have money so they can buy fancy toys.....the wealthy FAKE Green EV guy ....


Exactly right. +1 GREAT POST.

In fact, when you do the math it turns out that manufacturing an EV releases far more CO2 then manufacturing a comparable ICE car, so the FAKE Green EV guys are aren’t even really Green.....

Cheers!
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Feb 2021, 12:45:22

Oil’s peak seen nowhere near in India despite energy transition

"India’s peak oil demand will come much later than what the rest of the world might anticipate, creating enough room to pursue refinery expansions and secure crude supplies through diversification drives, speakers at the S&P Global Platts South Asia Commodities Virtual Forum said Feb. 4-5."
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: peer reviewed govt. report: THE JIG IS UP!

Unread postby Navigator 1122 » Thu 13 May 2021, 10:43:13

asg70 wrote:Duplicate. Already digested here. It's just regurgitated perma-doomerism.


Where is the discussion of this report?
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Re: peer reviewed govt. report: THE JIG IS UP!

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 19 May 2021, 08:19:51

Navigator 1122 wrote:
asg70 wrote:Duplicate. Already digested here. It's just regurgitated perma-doomerism.


Where is the discussion of this report?


Click on this LINK and it will take you to the beginning of the discussion.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 21 May 2021, 15:08:52

Revi wrote:Oil seems to keep going down, despite cuts, etc.

We are seeing how it works out, in real time.

We're watching the peak and the descent right now.

As a poet once said, it ends not with a bang, but with a whimper...

No, you were CLEARLY seeing the short term effects of SHUT DOWN due to a dangerous global pandemic.

But don't ever let reality get in the way of your endless religious fanaticism. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 26 May 2021, 16:08:27

Big court case against Shell.

Another form of peak?

The ramifications are unclear to me.

https://gcaptain.com/shell-loses-climat ... r-big-oil/
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby aadbrd » Thu 27 May 2021, 11:09:09

Asking oil companies to slash their emissions is silly. They are in the business of selling a product that creates emissions. The more they slash, the more they are committing slow suicide. I get it, they could be more efficient in the course of producing oil, but still, if cutting emissions is the goal, slapping the wrist of big-oil isn't going to do much.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 May 2021, 12:20:15

REAL Green wrote: Having an EV and driving more becuase you think you are green and can is just more of the Jevons paradox combined with dubious green behavior. In fact, it can be argued most EV people are FAKE greens who have money so they can buy fancy toys.


Sounds like a wee-bit-o jealousy there RG. I don't think folks buy EVs to drive more, but to replace the CO2 spewing, "carrying a fuel/air explosive under the back seats", OMG how pathetic is the acceleration on THIS thing, device.

I drive my EV less because I charge it slow, it doesn't have a large battery, I drive it fewer miles because of these known restrictions when I bought it.

And Jevon's paradox is just old school peak oil nonsense, it is called the rebound effect now, and it doesn't automatically assume the worst, instead it seeks to quantify how much of a savings happens, rather than assuming none does, or even sillier yet, the problem can only get worse.

Real Green wrote: It really is something in between because EV will make society more resilient on the trip down the ladder of decline but only a little. The car culture and excessive consumerism is the real problem.


Not all of it.

Real Green wrote: Too many people living.....


There you go!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 May 2021, 12:22:16

Newfie wrote:Big court case against Shell.

Another form of peak?

The ramifications are unclear to me.

https://gcaptain.com/shell-loses-climat ... r-big-oil/


Peak oil demand can be ordered, as well as happen organically. This looks to be a version of ordered, and it might actually work. Not everywhere, and not all at once, and there will be some ROYAL bitching as it unfolds, but it might work. Will it work fast enough to make a difference is entirely a different question.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 01 Jun 2021, 10:33:11

I told you all that we were at PEAK Oil already in 2019. Now, just as demand is picking up, prices are rising as well to keep oil consumption in check.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby aadbrd » Tue 01 Jun 2021, 12:47:23

jedrider wrote:I told you all that we were at PEAK Oil already in 2019. Now, just as demand is picking up, prices are rising as well to keep oil consumption in check.


We'll be at peak oil (classic definition of the term) when this site has more than a half dozen active posters.
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