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Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 30 Nov 2020, 18:38:39

Newfie wrote:Here it comes.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/covid-19 ... rs-vaccine



The International Air Transport Association is in the process of finalizing a digital COVID-19 passport that would include information about a traveler’s COVID-19 testing and vaccinations that would be verified by labs, airlines and government agencies, according to a new report.





You won’t be allowed to do shit without your vaccine ID. Sickening
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 30 Nov 2020, 18:56:47

I am so glad that I am 50 and have already completed three bucket lists. I feel really sorry for the younger generations; their future looks grim.

Also, thank god I don't fly, attend any crowded events, or need anything from anyone. If they try to force me to take a vaccine I don't want, that might just be the the point of no return for me and I may just take that final sailing trip to my farm in Uruguay, where nobody can force me to do anything against my will.

I am very grateful that I am not an American and I have options. Today's USA is a worse place to live in than Uruguay was during the military dictatorship.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 30 Nov 2020, 19:11:08

JuanP wrote:I am so glad that I am 50 and have already completed three bucket lists. I feel really sorry for the younger generations; their future looks grim.

Also, thank god I don't fly, attend any crowded events, or need anything from anyone. If they try to force me to take a vaccine I don't want, that might just be the the point of no return for me and I may just take that final sailing trip to my farm in Uruguay, where nobody can force me to do anything against my will.

I am very grateful that I am not an American and I have options. Today's USA is a worse place to live in than Uruguay was during the military dictatorship.


Juan, you said you were 50 already four years ago so that is strange. You routinely tell us you go places like Costa Rica or Dominican Republic by air although you never talk about going to Uruguay. I doubt you have a farm there. A farm one lives on and works on. So long story short We REAL Americans would be grateful if you were not here in the US if you hate this place and people so much. Go to China, a place you idealize obsessively as if you have some kind of delusions of the place. Just leave the US since you hate us so much.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Mon 30 Nov 2020, 19:56:54



Thanks! Couldn't see the German and US Military reports I remember reading back in 2010. Would they be anywhere else on here?
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 14:09:01

AdamB wrote:
warpig13 wrote:Peak oil was 15 years ago... 'ish.


Sure. Here is a graph proving it. Oops.

Image

warpig13 wrote: The question is not when the peak was... it's what happens now.


See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.



Posting a graph showing increasing Oil Consumption somehow negates any talk of Peak Oil? That makes total sense.
Somehow the debunkers can just post charts and thats it yet you claim to talk of Peak Oil coherently?

Perhaps you should also show a chart that shows the large increase in world population that would make sense of the increase in oil consumption?

Then you could show a chart with both population and oil PRODUCTION there and make comparisons....?

But no, of course it goes into the usual diatribe about conspiracy nutters, doomerville, and all the rest of it.

It is all so tiresome.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 14:59:22

AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


OK I can work with that. So you're stating peak oil hasn't happened because consumption can't exceed supply. That is a fair point - maybe... I need to do some reading, digging and checking how we've managed to produce oil at an ever-increasing rate up until 2019. If I'm honest that chart has surprised me. Now to see if those figures are correct and then to work out where the oil came from and what grade it is... Lots to check - unless you already know the answers?
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 17:27:41

AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


The German and US military came to the same conclusion back in 2010 that peak oil was imminent and what the impact would be to western civilisation. This is a summary from the German report. They seemed to think 2025 would be when it becomes obvious... Do you disagree with either their timescales or conclusion?

Relapse into planned economy: Since virtually all economic sectors rely heavily on oil, peak oil could lead to a "partial or complete failure of markets," says the study. "A conceivable alternative would be government rationing and the allocation of important goods or the setting of production schedules and other short-term coercive measures to replace market-based mechanisms in times of crisis."
Global chain reaction: "A restructuring of oil supplies will not be equally possible in all regions before the onset of peak oil," says the study. "It is likely that a large number of states will not be in a position to make the necessary investments in time," or with "sufficient magnitude." If there were economic crashes in some regions of the world, Germany could be affected. Germany would not escape the crises of other countries, because it's so tightly integrated into the global economy.
Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could perceive the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict."
https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... 15138.html
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 17:32:30

This is my favourite bit

3.2 Systemic risks after reaching a tipping point

In addition to the gradual risks, there might be risks of non-linear events, where a reduction of economic output based on Peak Oil might affect market-driven economies in a way that they stop functioning altogether, leaving the possibility of a relatively steady downward trajectory.

Such a scenario could develop through an initially slow decline of trade and economic activity, combined with higher stress on government budgets from lower tax income, higher social cost and growing investment into alternative technologies.

Investment will decline and debt service will be challenged, leading to a crash in financial markets, accompanied by a loss of trust in currencies and a break-up of value and supply chains – because trade is no longer possible. This would in turn lead to the collapse of economies, mass unemployment, government defaults and infrastructure breakdowns, ultimately followed by famines and total system collapse.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 18:09:33

warpig13 wrote:


Thanks! Couldn't see the German and US Military reports I remember reading back in 2010. Would they be anywhere else on here?


Not that I know of but it is possible. Sorry, I am no help.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue 01 Dec 2020, 19:26:45

Newfie wrote:
warpig13 wrote:


Thanks! Couldn't see the German and US Military reports I remember reading back in 2010. Would they be anywhere else on here?


Not that I know of but it is possible. Sorry, I am no help.


No worries, thanks for the reply. There is a summary here, but I can't find the original... will keep looking.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... 15138.html
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 06:55:53

AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


Despite looking through the "Full report – BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020", I can't find the source of your graph... and more specifically I can't verify the data, but I did find this Forbes article that references your chart. It clearly states that chart includes "derivatives of natural gas and coal (e.g., synthetic oil)."

So your chart doesn't prove conventional oil hasn't peaked. You'll need to provide proof of your claim - this isn't it.

Image
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 09:30:54

I'll just point out FWIW, "derivatives of natural gas" are natural gas liquids, Lease and Plant condensates along with stuff that condenses from oil well gas. These have been included in measures of oil "crude + condensate" production/consumption since about forever.

But beyond that, when I pull my coal-roller up to the pump, it doesn't matter a whit to me whether I fill up from a vertical, horizontal, stimulated, fracked; foreign or domestic well; an oil/gas/tar, corn or turkey gut source, as long as I can afford the fare.

The problem with PO is all the original pundits (Hubert/Campbell/Laherrere/ etc) assumed past performance could predict future results, i.e., that the Hubert linearisation was a crystal ball. Turns out it isn't. It really can't predict ultimate production, reserve growth, discovery or technology. Which doesn't negate the premise—extraction of any finite resource will have a beginning, middle and end and at some point there will be a point of maximum production, a peak—it merely puts Peakers in the same boat as everyone else.

Which, as we all know about conspiracists, is where we hate to be, LOL The idea that covid and PO are the new tool of the global commie plot is... just another example. If you get to thinking: "oohh! I'm special, I know the REAL truth and billions of others are blind!" you'd better check yourself.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 12:47:49

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:Perhaps you should also show a chart that shows the large increase in world population that would make sense of the increase in oil consumption?

Then you could show a chart with both population and oil PRODUCTION there and make comparisons....?


Feel free to make it per capita if you'd like. I was just replying to someone who wrote something that wasn't true, and could easily have been checked, but wasn't.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 12:54:28

warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


OK I can work with that. So you're stating peak oil hasn't happened because consumption can't exceed supply.


I said no such thing. The most recent peak oil seems to be a late 2018 event, if I recall some charts folks have posted? I'll go with the data on this one, if I am off by much, feel free to correct me.

warpig13 wrote:That is a fair point - maybe... I need to do some reading, digging and checking how we've managed to produce oil at an ever-increasing rate up until 2019.


We haven't. There was another global peak oil in 1979 that took some 15 years to recovery from, and then some times of steady production in this century, one of them around the recession of 2008 when that peak oil was declared by TOD. So no, global production hasn't always increased. It can't increase forever, obviously, so a peak is certain. It is the timing that has proven tricky.

warpig13 wrote: If I'm honest that chart has surprised me. Now to see if those figures are correct and then to work out where the oil came from and what grade it is... Lots to check - unless you already know the answers?


I know quite a few answers. But the EIA has international energy statistics at the country level for past production, going back at least a few decades. A good website to have a shortcut for, when it comes to domestic or international oil and gas volume questions.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 19:53:39

warpig13 wrote:
careinke wrote:This video seemed germane to the thread: Pretty good explanation from a conservative/anarchtistic point of view.

TIMESTAMPS -
0:00 Intro
2:05 What is the Great Reset?
8:45 Economics of the Reset
11:38 Why now?
12:20 The plan for CBDCs?
18:21 Conclusion

Great Reset & CBDCs: The Global Elite's Plan!!:

[


Good video... Shame he hasn't caught on to the idea that the planet's resources are running out and this is the main driver.




Yup.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 21:59:43

warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


The German and US military came to the same conclusion back in 2010 that peak oil was imminent and what the impact would be to western civilisation. This is a summary from the German report. They seemed to think 2025 would be when it becomes obvious... Do you disagree with either their timescales or conclusion?


Can you please provide the quote where their time scales are stated? They didn't appear to be included in the quote you provided.

As far as their impact, why do I need them to speculate on peak oil effects when supposedly it happened in late 2018? Can't we all just look around at what 2019 looked like, and decide for ourselves?
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Dec 2020, 22:04:22

warpig13 wrote:This is my favourite bit


It is interesting, from the peak oil doom fantasy league perspective. Not as cool as the old threads on long pork and neutron weapons used on starving suburbanites fleeing the cities though.

And also doesn't appear to include their time line?
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby GHung » Thu 03 Dec 2020, 12:37:06

The peak no one saw coming

By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020
A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.

Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.

As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent......


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... pockethits
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 03 Dec 2020, 16:58:53

GHung wrote:The peak no one saw coming

By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020


I call bullshit on the claim. Bloomberg should know better. Amy Jaffe certainly saw it coming, and documented it.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 03 Dec 2020, 21:47:27

Back in 2005, the IEA believed that oil demand would reach 115 Mbd by 2015, and that it would easily be met because the problems are "above ground." Two years later, they conducted a global survey of oil resources, and after 2010 argued that conventional production started peaking in 2006. At the same time, BP reported similar, and in one set of chart shared with The Economist explained that the reason why consumption exceeded production was because the latter referred to conventional oil, and that the world was now meeting more of increasing demand through other means.

(In 1976, Hubbert was interviewed on television, and said that production--he likely meant conventional because that's what he used in his paper--would be pushed from 1995 to 2005 because of the recent oil crunch.)

That demand is almost 100 Mbd and not more than 115 as expected more than a decade ago. That's because in 2008 the world economy crashed, leading to weak growth and resource consumption throughout. In short, the world avoided a crash that would have been caused by peak oil by a crash caused by increasing debt, with part of the latter used to finance unconventional production.

Some did look at production per capita, which is more logical, and that peaked back in 1979, and has not recovered since.

Thus, what matters more isn't so much if production will fit a curve but what happens if demand can't be met, and what happens if that demand doesn't go as high because of other predicaments. (I think Martenson referred to them as such because they are crisis for which there are no solutions.)
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