Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Sep 2021, 01:45:00

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you adjust that graph for inflation after the end of the gold standard you get a more realistic picture of the value of the market.
Also consider that there are about 130 million more Americans today then were in the economy in 1970. That alone would account for about a 40% rise in the value of the economy as measured by the DOW.


True, the Fiat dollar has lost 95% of it's value since 1971 when Nixon "temporally" decoupled the Dollar from Gold. This makes the value the DOW today worth about $1,700 in 1971 dollars. Not very impressive.

Peace and welcome to the Metaverse.

I don't know as you can go all the way back to $1,700. To me things are about ten times higher then they were in 1971. Starting wages then $1.70 now $17.00 gas 35 cents now $3.19 etc. So perhaps inflation adjusted Dow would be $3,400 which would be about a 4.5% inflation adjusted growth per year over the last fifty years. Not great but better then all other options.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13391
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 23 Sep 2021, 05:33:56

adonis wrote:Buffett said Wednesday ..."


Who cares what Buffett says other than considering it as a contray indicator. He makes billions of dollars and the source of that wealth is the American people. If he holds a huge amount of stock in Coke, then every time you rip the top of a can you are increasing his fortune. He is not your friend, your mentor. You will never be invited to dinner with him and Bill Gates. You are the little people he feeds off and if you want to worship him, which many poor Americans do, then feel free, just don't come on here and complain that the system is ripping you off when your favored asset crashes.


Aug 17, 2011,12:02pm EDT
How Buffett Saves Billions On His Tax Return

Buffett’s double-dip tax loophole of donating appreciated shares to charity also saves him 15% long-term capital gains taxes on the embedded capital gains in the shares he donates (as noted in my Aug. 16 blog “Mr. Buffett, the IRS needs your charity, too”). For discussion purposes, assume that appreciation is approximately $20 billion, and that would save him another $3 billion in income taxes. Total tax savings could be over $13 billion.

Buffett and Bill Gates asked other billionaires to sign their pledge to donate half their net worth to charity in similar fashion. Others are not as wealthy as Buffett, so figure 50 billionaires’ times $5 billion of tax savings equals $250 billion of taxes diverted from the IRS and states. That’s a meaningful amount of taxes and it should be considered for repeal in pending discussions for tax reform.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... d36b04611d

A lot of people on here talk but they offer no linked evidence, they want you to think the world is just how you see it on TV. They want you to trust the government, to trust the billionaire robber barons, to trust the system that has taken you from a nation of wealthy middle-class people who felt confident of the future to a nation wondering if they will have enough to make the house payment next month.
theluckycountry
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 451
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Sep 2021, 07:49:51

You miss the point that for Buffet to avoid taxes on that income he had to give it away meaning he does not have it to spend as he might wish.
The authors of the tax code think it is a good thing to promote such giving to approved charities so Buffet is just doing what the government wants him to do. Perhaps they should change the rules or the limits in them but to criticize successful tax payers that go by them is misdirected.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13391
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Sep 2021, 21:11:27

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you adjust that graph for inflation after the end of the gold standard you get a more realistic picture of the value of the market.
Also consider that there are about 130 million more Americans today then were in the economy in 1970. That alone would account for about a 40% rise in the value of the economy as measured by the DOW.


True, the Fiat dollar has lost 95% of it's value since 1971 when Nixon "temporally" decoupled the Dollar from Gold. This makes the value the DOW today worth about $1,700 in 1971 dollars. Not very impressive.

Peace and welcome to the Metaverse.

1). Based on what math?

2). The Dow today is largely irrelevant. It's only 30 industrial stocks. Something like the S&P 500 index or a broad market index of thousands of stocks at least tells us something.

In the real world, overall, the S&P 500 has risen about 7%, including dividends, in real (inflation adjusted) dollars since 1929 (when good record keeping supposedly began). Since then, the nominal value has risen about 10% (not inflation adjusted).

In the real world, using a credible citation vs citation free arm waving, the S&P 500 was at about 670 in 1971 in inflation adjusted returns.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500 ... chart-data

I have found macrotrends to consistently be reliable, re their figures.

Or if you want the S&P 500 without inflation adjustments, it was 93.49 at the beginning of 1971.

4445 / 93.49 = 47.5+

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historic ... le/by-year

So, since 1971, the S&P 500 has had MASSIVE returns compared to inflation. And that's BEFORE dividends, since the indexes don't include dividends. So roughly double that, since over time, roughly half of broad stock market index returns are from dividends.


4445 / 670 = 6.6+ Double that for the dividends, and you get a 13.2 times return, inflation adjusted since 1971.

4445 / 93.49 = 47.5+ Double that for the dividends, and you get a 95 times nominal return since 1971.

Various inflation calculators like:

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

https://www.aier.org/cost-of-living-calculator/

Show total inflation from 1971 to have $1 becoming about $6.70 in 2021.

NOTE that your claim that the dollar has lost 95% of its value in 1971 is NONSENSE. It's lost a lot, but 1 / 6.7 is roughly 15%, not 5%. So you're off on your inflation claim by a factor of THREE.

So, which is bigger: 95 or 6.7?

Dividing 95 by 6.7, I get 14.2, which is mighty close to the 13.2 we get for the inflation adjusted return, considering I'm using a very round number for the dividends.

So in reality, inflation adjusted stock market total returns since 1971 have been MASSIVE, using facts and credible references for inflation and a reliable stock index.

Do you have facts and data from CREDIBLE sources to present, or just more fact free hand waving in rebuttle?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10013
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 15:45:27

How much longer can they keep this fake money printing charade of an economy going? I think we are approaching the breaking point.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 19:01:59

Armageddon wrote: think we are approaching the breaking point.


Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7488
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 19:20:38

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote: think we are approaching the breaking point.


Image




How about we just print 20 more trillion to keep it going? It’s just paper, huh?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 19:22:41

We’ll get that US debt up to 50 trillion and keep interest at zero forever. That should solve things.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 19:52:14

Commodity prices over the last year...
Natural Gas: +110%
Heating Oil: +104%
WTI Crude: +85%
Brent Crude +83%
Gasoline: +81%
Coffee: +77%
Cotton: +61%
Aluminum: +61%
Sugar: +52%
Corn: +46%
Copper: +37%
Wheat: +32%
Soybeans: +26%
Lumber: +23%
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 21:10:22

Armageddon wrote:We’ll get that US debt up to 50 trillion and keep interest at zero forever. That should solve things.


Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7488
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 23:15:45

Let’s see what $100 oil does to this current economy. We’ll know soon.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 00:08:54

Armageddon wrote:Let’s see what $100 oil does to this current economy. We’ll know soon.


World oil price from around 2011-2014 looks above $100 for years

World GDP growing through the high oil price period.

Image
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7488
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 09:45:22

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Let’s see what $100 oil does to this current economy. We’ll know soon.


World oil price from around 2011-2014 looks above $100 for years

World GDP growing through the high oil price period.

Image




That’s why I said current. You can’t compare that to what’s happening now. Completely different environment. We already have massive inflation hitting.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 10:10:00

How long can an economy that’s completely dependent on govt stimulus and money printing last? What happens when servicing the debt takes up most of the tax revenue? We are expected to hit 50T US debt in the next several years. Imagine if they raise rates? If so, we’ll blow past 50T and be headed to 100T in less than 10 years. Every tax dollar collected will go to servicing the debt. This is where we are headed.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 10:48:39

Armageddon wrote:That’s why I said current.


Armageddon wrote:by Armageddon » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:24:30
matt, your an optimist compared to me. this entire system is doomed by 2010.


The End of the World - Again, by Barry Vacker, recommended for slow learning doomers, and Alex Jones groupies.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 7488
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 11:09:06

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:That’s why I said current.


Armageddon wrote:by Armageddon » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:24:30
matt, your an optimist compared to me. this entire system is doomed by 2010.


The End of the World - Again, by Barry Vacker, recommended for slow learning doomers, and Alex Jones groupies.



It’s amazing what 25T of debt can do, huh?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 11:12:02

This is what happens when you print trillions to keep the economy afloat

Commodity prices over the last year...
Natural Gas: +110%
Heating Oil: +104%
WTI Crude: +85%
Brent Crude +83%
Gasoline: +81%
Coffee: +77%
Cotton: +61%
Aluminum: +61%
Sugar: +52%
Corn: +46%
Copper: +37%
Wheat: +32%
Soybeans: +26%
Lumber: +23%
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 11:55:34

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:That’s why I said current.


Armageddon wrote:by Armageddon » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:24:30
matt, your an optimist compared to me. this entire system is doomed by 2010.


The End of the World - Again, by Barry Vacker, recommended for slow learning doomers, and Alex Jones groupies.



It’s amazing what 25T of debt can do, huh?

It can make you babble and spew nonsense a lot, and keep making bad predictions -- that much is for sure.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10013
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 12:19:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:That’s why I said current.


Armageddon wrote:by Armageddon » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:24:30
matt, your an optimist compared to me. this entire system is doomed by 2010.


The End of the World - Again, by Barry Vacker, recommended for slow learning doomers, and Alex Jones groupies.



It’s amazing what 25T of debt can do, huh?

It can make you babble and spew nonsense a lot, and keep making bad predictions -- that much is for sure.




You are your twin monkey Adam always fail to address the topic. I wonder why?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Oct 2021, 12:21:02

Armageddon wrote:This is what happens when you print trillions to keep the economy afloat

Commodity prices over the last year...
Natural Gas: +110%
Heating Oil: +104%
WTI Crude: +85%
Brent Crude +83%
Gasoline: +81%
Coffee: +77%
Cotton: +61%
Aluminum: +61%
Sugar: +52%
Corn: +46%
Copper: +37%
Wheat: +32%
Soybeans: +26%
Lumber: +23%

Still not citing things as a competent adult would, I see. :roll:

What happened to the 300% surge in lumber you were hysterical about?

In the real world, massive unplanned changes in logistics, supply chains, mobility, labor, and supply vs. demand causes price shifts in commodities to occur.

Google is a thing -- perhaps learn to use it. For example, searching on "covid induced inflation" would be a start.

That's NORMAL and EXPECTED -- which is WHY commodity contracts exist, are volatile, and trade massively over time in the first place.

But you, as per usual have cherries to pick and false stories of doom to tell.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

But of course, looking at the actual overall US inflation data tells a different story, which is why I'm COMPLETELY not surprised your ilk can't be bothered to look at that. Hint: that trend in the inflation rate is sharply DOWN.

And if I look at a summary of commodity prices YTD at a credible site, there are plenty of pink and red prices which show commodities DOWN YTD as well.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Click on the + at the bottom of the commodity list to expand the list and get YTD prices in a colored chart, to eyeball the overall situation.

Lots of commodities are indeed up, but it's NOT a one way street, and plenty are trending DOWN (weekly and monthly columns).

I find it particularly amusing looking at Gold for 2021.

Mr. gold and silver and hyperinflation has been nattering on about "buy gold and silver and doom is coming re US hyperinflation" for a mighty long time now.

Gold down over 7% in 2021, Silver more like 15%.

Yup, even when inflation is a problem, your investing advice is pure shiite.

And meanwhile, no great reset, the primary crude oil peak looks most likely to be a demand peak as green energy and cars expand their footprint massively over time, and despite a recent correction, the stock market "crash" scenario has the US stock market STRONGLY up this year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=S ... c=fin-srch

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ?p=Q ... c=fin-srch
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10013
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests