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Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby ralfy » Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:53 am

About the Bloomberg article, the catch is that what will be used to make up for oil requires oil.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:19 am

AdamB wrote:
warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.


OK I can work with that. So you're stating peak oil hasn't happened because consumption can't exceed supply.


I said no such thing. The most recent peak oil seems to be a late 2018 event, if I recall some charts folks have posted? I'll go with the data on this one, if I am off by much, feel free to correct me.

warpig13 wrote:That is a fair point - maybe... I need to do some reading, digging and checking how we've managed to produce oil at an ever-increasing rate up until 2019.


We haven't. There was another global peak oil in 1979 that took some 15 years to recovery from, and then some times of steady production in this century, one of them around the recession of 2008 when that peak oil was declared by TOD. So no, global production hasn't always increased. It can't increase forever, obviously, so a peak is certain. It is the timing that has proven tricky.

warpig13 wrote: If I'm honest that chart has surprised me. Now to see if those figures are correct and then to work out where the oil came from and what grade it is... Lots to check - unless you already know the answers?


I know quite a few answers. But the EIA has international energy statistics at the country level for past production, going back at least a few decades. A good website to have a shortcut for, when it comes to domestic or international oil and gas volume questions.


You like wasting my time... I don't. You're talking shit.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:27 am

GHung wrote:The peak no one saw coming

By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020
A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.

Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.

As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent......


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... pockethits


Everything they're doing is Soooo.... obvious. Peak demand my arse, it's because they deliberately destroyed the economies of the world... Of course demand will peak. Businesses are closing and will never reopen... all because of a shitty virus that carries a 0.07% mortality rate (or whatever the current figure is...). Last time I checked it was 1/10th of 1%... and they destroyed the world economies for that. In the UK the average age of death from someone with Covid is 83, the average life expectancy in the UK is 82. Tells you everything you need to know...

The irony is... they aren't fixing anything... AGAIN! All they're going to end up doing is bringing forward peak coal... to power the electric cars... that's assuming people have jobs and can afford electric cars! So this is just a blag for time... but there is no energy source to replace oil... and there never will be. END OF.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:54 am

Pops wrote:But beyond that, when I pull my coal-roller up to the pump, it doesn't matter a whit to me whether I fill up from a vertical, horizontal, stimulated, fracked; foreign or domestic well; an oil/gas/tar, corn or turkey gut source, as long as I can afford the fare.

The problem with PO is all the original pundits (Hubert/Campbell/Laherrere/ etc) assumed past performance could predict future results, i.e., that the Hubert linearisation was a crystal ball. Turns out it isn't. It really can't predict ultimate production, reserve growth, discovery or technology. Which doesn't negate the premise—extraction of any finite resource will have a beginning, middle and end and at some point there will be a point of maximum production, a peak—it merely puts Peakers in the same boat as everyone else.

Which, as we all know about conspiracists, is where we hate to be, LOL The idea that covid and PO are the new tool of the global commie plot is... just another example. If you get to thinking: "oohh! I'm special, I know the REAL truth and billions of others are blind!" you'd better check yourself.


Why are you even here? - Rhetorical!

Of course it matters when CONVENTIONAL oil peaks... because the US and German military have predicted the breakdown of modern society once supplies notably decline. What we have here and as per the BP chart, that peak conventional oil has been offset by synthetic oil for some time... but it doesn't change a thing. Civilisation is now about to change for the worse, because the planet is running out of its natural resources... We are now moving to a socialist world government where the remaining resources will be allocated centrally... our civil liberties have not been eroded - they've been smashed to bits and they're NEVER coming back. The democrats (the irony!) have just cheated Trump out of his presidency because he wouldn't play the globalists game... He went to Davos and said the world does not belong to globalists... The man has balls BIGGER than King Kong. Weirdly he wasn't invited back!!!

US election 3rd November... Trump was going to remove the US from the Paris Accord 4th November... it's no coincidence he had to go... There are already rummours that the German elections will be suspended next year... I think we've seen the last of our election processes in all western countries... it will never be seen again and the country's heads of state will merely be token leaders taking their orders from the UN. All of this is happening under dictotorial powers of the various covid acts around the world... and there's nothing we can do...

Democracy is over and our quality of life is about to be rewound by 120 years. Next year we will see a banking collapse, bail-ins, new regional (country) based digital currencies and a new digital reserve currency. USD as a reserve currency is dead under Biden. The banks will be allowed to fail and if you have cash, you should buy things now so you survive the transition to the new currency... ideally income-generating assets like a house, but don't do it with debt... debt will likely be a thing of the past after the transition... A whole new system is coming and then you'll realise you were hoodwinked by Covid... They lied to you...

So when you say it doesn't matter if it's conventional or synthetic oil... actually it does, because the fact some of it is synthetic should have hinted that we were on borrowed time.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:07 am

I think I've watched this 8 times... what an amazing video.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/VOMWzjrRiBg
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:55 pm

While the recent posts are interesting they would be better placed on another thread, so I moved a bunch of posts to a thread titled:
Peak Oil - 2020 Fore Sight
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:38 am

I'm seeing this same bell curve everywhere I look... it's not just crude... The world is at peak EVERYTHING.

Image
Image

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4913002747
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:25 pm

LTG dude. :-D

Now assume you are not the smartest person running the world. They are in Davos. What would they do?

Look around at what country has the greatest control of the largest population. How did they do it? How can we emulate them?

China.
Cultural Revolution, sow fear and distrust. Only gov is trust worthy.
Invent the Social Credit System.
Incorporate health checks to control peoples movements.

Extrapolate forward a solution.

Western Civ.
Great Reset to eliminate Capitalisim, enhance globalism.
Fear of Corona, fear of one another. Trust gov only.
Already have capital credit system, need to expand.
Invent Health Passports to control peoples movements.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Pops » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:45 pm

warpig13 wrote:
Pops wrote:But beyond that, when I pull my coal-roller up to the pump, it doesn't matter a whit to me whether I fill up from a vertical, horizontal, stimulated, fracked; foreign or domestic well; an oil/gas/tar, corn or turkey gut source, as long as I can afford the fare.
Why are you even here? - Rhetorical!

Of course it matters when CONVENTIONAL oil peaks... because the US and German military have predicted the breakdown of modern society once supplies notably decline.

Not sure why my answer was moved while the question remains, but I'll give it another shot, delete this too if you want.

Click on the "What is PO?" link in the sidebar. I wrote that in 2004. "the reason I'm here" should be obvious. I made the same arguments you are making, years ago.

Including conflating conventional oil with "supplies" — supplies presumably being what comes out of the nozzle at the station.
This is wrong on its face, supplies are increasing.

Image

Straight, vertical holes are producing less of what comes from the nozzle, true, but the amount coming from the nozzle is still increasing. Ipso facto, peaked conventional does not mean peaked supplies.

...

Going forward, at least one quarter of the world's oil production is in long term decline. Of course as the US proved, peaks are where you find them, so any of these or any other region might surprise.

Image

Image

thanks as always to Matt: crudeoilpeak.info


---


I don't pretend to see the future any more or advise anyone's lifestyle. But I would tell you I've been where you are and I've acted pretty dramatically to mitigate PO in my life. It didn't turn out bad for me, even though PO hasn't happened yet—it was an adventure in fact. Do what you need to do for you and your family, but don't expect anyone else to go along or co-sign or even understand. Just don't burn too many bridges, PO could be a ways off.

I used to say: plan for anything to happen, including nothing
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:55 pm

I kind of get what they're doing... in a world where we're at peak resources, financialisation and population - you've got to do something... the world leaders are supposed to see this shit coming and take corrective measures to make sure civilisation doesn't walk off a cliff...

Initially, they'll work together thinking they can share the remaining resources, keep everyone safe and fed... but how long will it last? There are rumours of famine starting to appear next year... and I'm not surprised considering both the extreme weather in places like Oz and China, but what isn't excusable is farmers having to plough over their crop because restaurants and other food outlets have been closed because of Covid restrictions... This has been happening worldwide. There's a YouTuber called "Iceage Farmer" that has a good handle on this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amauVOikHy0

My main issue with everything is they can't do this without telling the people our resources are running out... some honesty... Yes there will be some panicing... yes there will be price volatility... but it's not the end of the world, just the end of the old world. People will come to their senses and they will be on board with it... they'll have to be. What will lead to violence will be more lies, billionaires keeping their wealth, when the majority are much closer to the breadline... the middle class are being disappeared and there will be a price for that.

I would rather face anything than have my civil liberties curtailed... This won't end well...
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Pops » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:21 pm

Governments won't work together, have you been sleeping the last decade?
The US can't even work with itself.
IMO the best you can do is figure out your own strengths and weaknesses and mitigate the things you worry about most, starting with the easiest.
Then go to the planning forum and relate you experience.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:16 pm

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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:23 pm

Pops,

Your post was not deleted but moved to a Peak Oil thread along with a bunch of other posts that were peak oil only related.

The Great Reset is a different topic, of which oil is a single component.

The Great Reset has more to do with leveraging Covid to restructure finance (in some unexplained way), to foster globalization, and to impose travel restrictions through Health Passports.

Just trying to give this topic, The Great Reset, some air space.

The link to the new thread was provided above. Exactly where to make the cut in this thread was not clear, sorry if it confused you.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:23 pm

Another home page article on the Great Reset.

https://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/could- ... s-problems

Does anyone have a link to some concrete Great Reset proposals. I know the WEF has funded the health passport being pushed by the International Airline Organization (or something similar.). But other than that all I have heard have been very broad, sweeping, statements.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:02 pm

warpig13 wrote:
GHung wrote:The peak no one saw coming

By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020
A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.

Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.

As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent......


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... pockethits


Everything they're doing is Soooo.... obvious. Peak demand my arse, it's because they deliberately destroyed the economies of the world...

Of course, if the facts don't back you up -- if the evidence isn't forthcoming, then evoke the "THEY" and imply an undefined conspiracy with, of course, no credible sources or references. (Hillary Clinton would be proud of you).

That might gin up the tinfoil hat club, but it doesn't make you credible to people who are educated, know how to think about complex issues, base decisions on meaningful facts, trends, credible EVIDENCE, etc. :idea:

But let's pretend peak demand can't occur because you wave your arms about conspiracies and don't like the idea.

Well, OK THEN. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:54 pm

A Great Reset article promoting increased productivity. Sigh. :cry:

https://www.spiked-online.com/
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby ralfy » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:26 am

The point about timing is irrelevant because of lower demand. That is, the world was expecting high economic growth with demand at 115 Mbd by 2015. Instead, it barely reached 100 Mbd because the economy crashed due to rising debt, leading to weak economic growth throughout.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Newfie » Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:18 pm

And yet another story (propaganda line) touting the Great Reset.

https://www.theindianwire.com/business/ ... er-300876/
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby aadbrd » Sun Dec 27, 2020 7:35 pm

Pops wrote:Governments won't work together


I would expect governments to work better together during the Biden administration. I get it that some here are desperately afraid of such a thing, but the problems we face are global and should engender a global response, NWO fears or not.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:08 pm

aadbrd wrote:
Pops wrote:Governments won't work together


I would expect governments to work better together during the Biden administration. I get it that some here are desperately afraid of such a thing, but the problems we face are global and should engender a global response, NWO fears or not.


All evidence to the contrary notwithstanding? COP21 was the limp "global" response last time....someone remind me...how much has atmospheric CO2 dropped since then?
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