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Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby KingM » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 21:55:46

MonteQuest wrote:Omnitir wrote:
You seem to be arguing that it's not even possible for alternatives to replace conventional energy, when clearly it is possible.


Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, highly foolish and highly unsustainable. We are in overshoot.

We cannot be looking to meet demand, we need to be looking to restrict it, reduce it , and replace it with sustainable systems.


This is why we should take what you write with a grain of salt. You think that not only is civilization doomed, but that it deserves to die.

And frankly, if power from the sun does not meet your definition of sustainable, what does?

Personally, I don't believe that solar power will save us from PO, but it could be one piece of the puzzle and if the matter became urgent and the technology advanced, see no reason why ramping up solar would be a problem. It's expensive electricity, but we spend billions a year on chewing gum, tobacco, plastic crap from China, etc. There's more than enough money and energy if things start to get ugly.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 22:18:51

KingM wrote:
And frankly, if power from the sun does not meet your definition of sustainable, what does?



But what about... PEAK SOLAR!!! EEK!!! :o
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby thuja » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 22:28:56

Its great driving all these cars powered by solar power around here. I haven't seen a fossil fuel car in decades...

And now that they've built the fusion plants, energy is essentially free. You should hop in youur flying solar powered car and hang out with us sometime PraiseDoom...we were so wrong back in the turn of the millenium...technology really does solve everything...
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 22:51:08

PraiseDoom wrote:An interesting reality, some 2 years into this Post Peak world. The truth, it is indeed inconvenient to the Church of Doom and my hopes of being the first to introduce my neighbor to the new rules of Duncans Gorge via superior firepower are diminishing.

:shock:
you are wearing this routine very thin. Yes. You are somewhat correct though. With the US $500 billion war machine we will not feel the pain. But I wouldn't try spinning your wiseass humor on the street of Lusaka.

Zambi is experiencing diesel shortage which is likely to hurt mining companies, an official with the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.
we depend on their copper, you moron. And they are running out of diesel and electricity to process it.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 23:28:09

pstarr wrote:you are wearing this routine very thin. Yes. You are somewhat correct though. With the US $500 billion war machine we will not feel the pain. But I wouldn't try spinning your wiseass humor on the street of Lusaka.


Yes, I find it really annoying to have reality pointed out over and over again and still not be able to explain it.

Two years in and where is the hyper inflation? Where is the global economic contraction? We have nearly $80 a barrel oil and I'm still stuck in a traffic jam on the way to work. How can the oil price triple and there be no seroius effect?

These are the questions we must answer before we can convince mainstream people that peak oil is of any consequence.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 23:36:53

KingM wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Omnitir wrote:
You seem to be arguing that it's not even possible for alternatives to replace conventional energy, when clearly it is possible.


Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, highly foolish and highly unsustainable. We are in overshoot.

We cannot be looking to meet demand, we need to be looking to restrict it, reduce it , and replace it with sustainable systems.


This is why we should take what you write with a grain of salt. You think that not only is civilization doomed, but that it deserves to die.


Never said, or even inferred anything of the sort...ever in over 9000 posts.

And frankly, if power from the sun does not meet your definition of sustainable, what does?


Wasn't talking about solar. I was talking about trying to maintain our overshoot condition with alternatives.

Fool's errand.

Personally, I don't believe that solar power will save us from PO, but it could be one piece of the puzzle and if the matter became urgent and the technology advanced, see no reason why ramping up solar would be a problem. .


Peak oil is not something we can be saved from. It is a symptom of a greater disease; overshoot.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 23:45:27

matt21811 wrote: Two years in and where is the hyper inflation? Where is the global economic contraction? How can the oil price triple and there be no seroius effect?


No one I know who has a serious grip on Peak oil has ever made such projections.

Peak oil is not a "date" in time that precipitates collapse.

When the "market" calls the peak, we will make up for lost time.

If you see no effects, then you aren't paying very much attention.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 21 Jun 2007, 23:57:45

MonteQuest wrote:

No one I know who has a serious grip on Peak oil has ever made such projections.

Peak oil is not a "date" in time that precipitates collapse.

When the "market" calls the peak, we will make up for lost time.

If you see no effects, then you aren't paying very much attention.


Oil has been triple what it was for some two years now. There has been plenty of declarations here that you cant have economic growth with rapidly rising oil prices. So what gives?

You have not called peak so dont bother answering that one but quite a few others here have and they have some explaining to do.

Please, go ahead and point out some global effects because overall, the world economy is booming.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 00:18:14

matt21811 wrote:
pstarr wrote:you are wearing this routine very thin. Yes. You are somewhat correct though. With the US $500 billion war machine we will not feel the pain. But I wouldn't try spinning your wiseass humor on the street of Lusaka.


Yes, I find it really annoying to have reality pointed out over and over again and still not be able to explain it.

Two years in and where is the hyper inflation? Where is the global economic contraction? We have nearly $80 a barrel oil and I'm still stuck in a traffic jam on the way to work. How can the oil price triple and there be no seroius effect?

These are the questions we must answer before we can convince mainstream people that peak oil is of any consequence.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby matt21811 » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 00:24:48

Pstarr,
Is that the equivalent of sticking you fingers in your ears and singing "lalala"?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 00:31:46

matt21811 It's communication the dumbed-down media-numbed masses might understand. I am Bono the Homo.

Life is virtual reality don't ya know :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 00:31:46

matt21811 wrote: Oil has been triple what it was for some two years now. There has been plenty of declarations here that you cant have economic growth with rapidly rising oil prices. So what gives?


You can if you go deeper into debt as we are doing.

I think the mantra has been you can't have economic growth in a declining energy environment.

Please, go ahead and point out some global effects because overall, the world economy is booming.


Like I said, you are not paying very close attention.

If the demand for energy, especially oil, is rising, and the production of oil is flat, who is doing without?

Who has been priced out of the oil game?

Higher energy prices affect the poor countries much more than affluent ones.

How long before the dominoes fall up to the Refi-ATM, credit card purchasers?

Rising interest rates, due to energy price driven inflation ( at 10% or better by some estimates) has imploded the housing bubble, with more fallout to come rather soon. New construction has come to a screeching halt. (I am a green builder)

A continued collapse of house prices in major economies could provoke a crisis in mortgage markets and might well set in motion a deflationary spiral of correction.

After all, the fundamentals were never there to support those prices. It was all speculation.

The current-account deficit of the US rose to about $870 billion, an increase of $80 billion from last year.

And lastly.

The dollar is poised for massive abandonment.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby matt21811 » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 01:19:44

"You can if you go deeper into debt as we are doing."

When someone borrows, someone else is loaning. I find it hard to see how it's a global problem.


"If the demand for energy, especially oil, is rising, and the production of oil is flat, who is doing without?"

Prices rises due to resource shortages are nothing new. The world as we know it didnt end. Why is this time any different?


"Rising interest rates, due to energy price driven inflation ( at 10% or better by some estimates) has imploded the housing bubble, with more fallout to come rather soon. New construction has come to a screeching halt. (I am a green builder)"

This is a US domestic, localised example. Even then, bubbles burst anyway. Economies go into recesion every few years too. Pointing to it and declaring it to be caused by peak oil isnt very convincing.

"A continued collapse of house prices in major economies could provoke a crisis in mortgage markets and might well set in motion a deflationary spiral of correction."

Only one bubble housing market makes my news at the moment and lately the stories are about how it isn't likely to cause much overall economic trouble. What you say could happen but so could something else. It is a shame your employment market isn't doing well right now but I think the market will soon improve for you.

"The current-account deficit of the US rose to about $870 billion, an increase of $80 billion from last year."

And lastly.

The dollar is poised for massive abandonment."

The dollar being poised for something isn't evidence. Its an opinion. The dollar could very well rally for the next decade.
If I were American I could be easily tricked into thinking that this meant something. But I'm not. I'm part of the other 95% of the world. I asked for "some global effects" and you painted a local picture. Even the stat isnt that alarming. US debt to GDP is less than it was a decade ago.

The question is simple. The oil price has tripled and production is down since last year. Where is the global recession? Where is the US recession? The mass unemployement? If we cant identify these then the mainstream will not be convinced anything is wrong.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 01:25:21

matt21811 wrote:
pstarr wrote:you are wearing this routine very thin. Yes. You are somewhat correct though. With the US $500 billion war machine we will not feel the pain. But I wouldn't try spinning your wiseass humor on the street of Lusaka.


Yes, I find it really annoying to have reality pointed out over and over again and still not be able to explain it.

Two years in and where is the hyper inflation? Where is the global economic contraction? We have nearly $80 a barrel oil and I'm still stuck in a traffic jam on the way to work. How can the oil price triple and there be no seroius effect?

These are the questions we must answer before we can convince mainstream people that peak oil is of any consequence.


SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 01:26:39

MonteQuest wrote:
matt21811 wrote: Two years in and where is the hyper inflation? Where is the global economic contraction? How can the oil price triple and there be no seroius effect?


No one I know who has a serious grip on Peak oil has ever made such projections.


Oh come on. 9000+ posts and you never heard of Duncan!! Wake up man! The end is near!!
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 01:36:52

matt21811 wrote:
The question is simple. The oil price has tripled and production is down since last year. Where is the global recession? Where is the US recession? The mass unemployement? If we cant identify these then the mainstream will not be convinced anything is wrong.


Will you just STOP IT ALREADY!!!! :lol:

I'm gonna bust a gut with the way people dance around the answer to this particular question. Its just necessary to BELIEVE!!! This is not a land of facts, this is not a place where reality is discussed and debated, buying into the concepts of Doom just requires an overwhelming desire to see harm come to others from some deep seated inferiority complex related to mom/childhood/breast feeding/bullys in school or whatever psycho babble best flips your wig.

So please....stop poking the homo (sapiens) with a stick, get with the program, and create the weirdest most nonsensical scenario you can imagine, and then work it baby, work it!!
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby Omnitir » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 06:05:58

MonteQuest wrote:
KingM wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Omnitir wrote:
You seem to be arguing that it's not even possible for alternatives to replace conventional energy, when clearly it is possible.


Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, highly foolish and highly unsustainable. We are in overshoot.

We cannot be looking to meet demand, we need to be looking to restrict it, reduce it , and replace it with sustainable systems.


This is why we should take what you write with a grain of salt. You think that not only is civilization doomed, but that it deserves to die.


Never said, or even inferred anything of the sort...ever in over 9000 posts.

I don't know MQ, these comments seem to be inferring something of the sort:
MonteQuest wrote:You fail to grasp that it is not in our best interest as a species to avoid a die-off.

MonteQuest wrote:A die-off is necessary.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic10962-0-asc-510.html

These are but two snippets from your very large die-off shtick. You frequently infer, sometimes downright argue, that any attempt at continuing civilization will only result in a larger die-off and is therefore undesirable. How can we not conclude that you believe that civilization needs to die?
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby Smudger » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 07:19:34

Chaps

i have to say this discussion does seem to be circling back yet again to 5% of the worlds population again. They currently benefit from massively low petrol prices, other forms of cheap energy etc which as we all know allows them to use five times the amount of oil/co2 than their population justifies. and yes when PO or frankly any other peaks bite they will have to forgo a lot of things. and by the way someone on this site trotted out something about we have to use more oil we travel longer distances. and yes you do but you also have a dropping MPG figure.....so not much effort to conserve there

But a lot of the rest of the world either exists - with very little oil, or much more accurately priced oil eg Europe where it is $7-8 a gallon. the result is the economy has adapted and we are not in die off. even here the av car whilst has a much better mpg than the US could still improve.

On the deficit once people start reducing the amount of oil they use (remember Japan achieved this last year) the us deficit will FALL.

the reality is PO will signal the end of the US era, as has happenned for the UK, France etc etc. there will be lots of unemployed, bankrupts etc but the end of civilisation it will not be
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 08:38:21

PraiseDoom wrote: SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?


If you have nothing to offer but inspid off-topic remarks, then I suggest you bow out.
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Re: Peak Oil Apocalypse is a bunch of phooey!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 22 Jun 2007, 08:52:31

matt21811 wrote: "If the demand for energy, especially oil, is rising, and the production of oil is flat, who is doing without?"

Prices rises due to resource shortages are nothing new. The world as we know it didnt end. Why is this time any different?


And how does that answer my question on who is doing wthout?

I asked for "some global effects" and you painted a local picture.


I noticed you just flat ignored the poor and countries who have been priced out of the oil game.

How can you have rising demand, have it met, and have production flat?

You are either drawing down stocks, pricing people out of access or both.

So, if the FED did not raise interest rates to fight inflation caused by rising energy prices, why did they?

Global effects? If America sneezes the whole world catches a cold. Nothing that happens in America is a local problem.

The question is simple. The oil price has tripled and production is down since last year. Where is the global recession? Where is the US recession? The mass unemployement? If we cant identify these then the mainstream will not be convinced anything is wrong.


Who says those things will happen immediately following the date of peak oil, which has not yet been seen in hindsight by the markets?

You argument seems to be there are no limits. Price of the #1 necessity is irrelevant to growth.

Your mindset is part of the problem.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri 22 Jun 2007, 13:17:51, edited 1 time in total.
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