ROCKMAN wrote:PHis work only predicted the future production of those geologic provinces that made up his study. He wasn't predicting US oil production rates...just of the fields he included in his analysis. Turns out he was rather accurate.
This is another thing you keep repeating lately, even though I posted excerpts from his paper in another thread pretty obviously showing he had his eye on the world, his '56 paper was titled
Nuclear Energy And The Fossil Fuels not Nukes and A Few Select Oil Wells. LOL
I just did a search of the paper at Resilience and came up with 41 instances of the word "world". Here from the introductory paragraphs:
To continue the navigation analogy, what we seem to have achieved is an abundance of detailed charts of local areas, with only an occasional attempt to construct, shall we say, a map of the whole world which, despite its inherent imperfections, is still necessary if we are to have even an approximate idea of where we are now, and where we are going.
I think it is pretty obvious he was looking at the large picture.
--
Moving down the list, I think we do have a pretty good idea about shale:
Again that's just my estimate based on the increases in TX and ND from the point they started to increase, no fancy modeling necessary. Regardless, I just don't see them drilling the EU like N Dakota or west Tx.
GOM is great but it too is as stagnant as most other regions:
As for bitumen and kerogen, etc, Of course they will add to the total, maybe a lot - in 50 years they may be 80% of production! But 25% of total production right now comes from 20 giant, conventional fields, all 50+ years old – the largest 500 supply 40% to the total. Those are what PO is about, I'm pretty sure strip mining Canada to steam off tar from sand will never make up for the loss of the old giants.
Personally I see the question less of the exact date of peak and more the shape of the curve. The plateau looks more and more like the peak, and the various Peak Oil Deniers (PODs) at the Ministry of Truth have performed a little Judo move by accepting it and spinning it as "Peak Demand" - they want us to believe that for some inexplicable reason we no longer want to drive SUVs or have full employment for that matter.
Regardless, the gist of the problem is (and has always been for me) the shape of the curve, is it a breaking wave or a receding tide? Or is it the IMF version where ever higher prices are needed to simply keep supply stationery?
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)