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Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 13:58:26

coffeeguyzz wrote:Regarding energy in general and hydrocarbons in particular, there looks to be an abundance/overabundance in both oil and natgas for at least the next ~20 years for oil, 100 years for natgas.
As far as unconventional potential goes, the technology and known resources ... show the world that this so called Shale Revolution is absolutely not limited to the US and Canada.


Yes there is a lot of coal, oil and natural gas still out there to be found and burned.

But unfortunately producing and using fossil fuels produces large amounts of CO2 and CH4, and these greenhouse gases in turn are causing the planet to heat and the climate change.

So even if there still is a lot of fossil fuel to use, we can't use it.

President Biden promises to realign US policy to fight global warming from the first day he takes office, and as a candidate he said he would eliminate the oil biz.

Thus we may reach peak oil not because of geologic limitations or because of of drop in demand, but because the government mandates an end to fossil fuel use.

Image
Joe Biden has pledged to take action against climate change-----that means taking action to reduce fossil fuel use

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby Pops » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 17:14:21

Thanks coffeeguyz, I was a true believer, I saw dead people every trip down the interstate and stroll through the mall. I still give overnight armageddon by Tuesday a non-zero chance, I'm just more careful my crystal ball isn't just playing reruns.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 18:02:41

Plant,
I will donate $100 to Greenpeace if Joseph Robinette Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021 as US President. (Hint ... nevuh hoppin').

The fragmentation of perceptions of reality - obliquely referenced by Pops' and my posts - are ... RIGHT NOW ... on full display from which a global audience is on track to learn as events continue to unfold in the coming weeks.

This crypto mumbo jumbo from me circles right back to your observations regarding constraints on hydrocarbons as they - supposedly - impact the climate.

The effects of the imminent Grand Solar Minimum are arising globally on a weekly basis and, oh, say, 3 to 5 years out the sun will come to be seen as THE determinant on Ol' Mama Gaia's climate.

No debate/discussion possible, unfortunately, in these matters.
Best to let observable events speak for themselves.
Next ~6 weeks, no more Creepy Joe.
Next ~5 years, profound re-orientation regarding climate influencers.
Garownteed.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 18:19:56

coffeeguyzz wrote:Plant,
I will donate $100 to Greenpeace if Joseph Robinette Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021 as US President. (Hint ... nevuh hoppin').


You lost me there. Enough states have certified the election results to guarantee Biden the presidency. I"m not a Biden fan but I don't see any reason not to think he won't be sworn in as President on Jan 20, 2021.

coffeeguyzz wrote:The fragmentation of perceptions of reality - obliquely referenced by Pops' and my posts - are ... RIGHT NOW ... This crypto mumbo jumbo from me circles right back to your observations regarding constraints on hydrocarbons as they - supposedly - impact the climate.


1. You and Pops may think that Science is "crypto mumbo jumbo" .... but it isn't.
2. Greenhouse gases emitted from the burning of fossil fuels do indeed impact the climate. Its pretty basic physics.

coffeeguyzz wrote:No debate/discussion possible, unfortunately, in these matters.
Best to let observable events speak for themselves.
Next ~6 weeks, no more Creepy Joe.
Next ~5 years, profound re-orientation regarding climate influencers.
Garownteed.


We'll see if your first prediction is true soon on Jan. 20, 2021. Please let me know when you send your $100 check to Greenpeace after Biden takes the oath of office during his planned "virtual" inauguration ceremony.

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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 21:54:22

AdamB wrote:
warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:I know quite a few answers. But the EIA has international energy statistics at the country level for past production, going back at least a few decades. A good website to have a shortcut for, when it comes to domestic or international oil and gas volume questions.


You like wasting my time... I don't. You're talking shit.


So....you don't have the brains, or the time, to check out documented oil volumes to verify the information provided? They add it up for you and give you a graph and everything...are you scared of using the web or something? Or just scared that your claim of peak oil in 2005 will be revealed as the crock I've already demonstrated?

And those timelines from those reports....where might they be? :lol: :lol:


You posted one chart that proved my point - not yours. Demand is being met with synthetic oil... Peak oil is about conventional oil, but of course you knew that.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 22:30:31

Coffee, I think that donating $100 to Greenpeace is a complete waste of money. There are thousands, if not millions of better things to do with that money, but, hey, it's your money so go for it. I hope you didn't have to work to earn them, time is precious and you'll never get back the time you will have wasted to earn that money.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 23:18:21

warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:And those timelines from those reports....where might they be? :lol: :lol:


You posted one chart that proved my point - not yours. Demand is being met with synthetic oil...


What are you calling synthetic oil? Motor oil made from natural gas, that I use in the engine of my car?

warpig13 wrote:Peak oil is about conventional oil, but of course you knew that.


I look at a list of all the global oil types that are listed and I still can't find "conventional" on it. Perhaps you can tell me which you are talking about? "Synthetic" isn't on the list either.

So..you really know better than to talk about the time frames for your favorite military doom scenarios, don't you? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Silly doomer, tricks are for kids. Rinse, recycle, repeat old doom claims, is that all you've got? 8)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 Dec 2020, 23:24:04

coffeeguyzz wrote:Plant,
I will donate $100 to Greenpeace if Joseph Robinette Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021 as US President. (Hint ... nevuh hoppin').

The fragmentation of perceptions of reality - obliquely referenced by Pops' and my posts - are ... RIGHT NOW ... on full display from which a global audience is on track to learn as events continue to unfold in the coming weeks.

This crypto mumbo jumbo from me circles right back to your observations regarding constraints on hydrocarbons as they - supposedly - impact the climate.

The effects of the imminent Grand Solar Minimum are arising globally on a weekly basis and, oh, say, 3 to 5 years out the sun will come to be seen as THE determinant on Ol' Mama Gaia's climate.

No debate/discussion possible, unfortunately, in these matters.
Best to let observable events speak for themselves.
Next ~6 weeks, no more Creepy Joe.
Next ~5 years, profound re-orientation regarding climate influencers.
Garownteed.

You'd sound normal (well, to be more accurate, typical) in a loony bin. Something to be proud of, no doubt. The Brad Pitt character in "12 Monkeys" would portray your ravings nicely.

In the real world, facts matter, and science trumps random BS every time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 03:07:37

Plant
Yesterday's (Dec. 5) Georgia rally by Trump was watched live by over 275,000 people on RSBN livestream.
The OAN feed had ~120,000 live viewers.
For context, this ~400,000 cohort roughly equates to the circulation numbers of the #4 and #5 US newspapers ... the NY Post and LA Times.

The fact that you may be completely unaware of what RSBN and OAN are is secondary in significance to the obvious fact that these hundreds of thousands of people have vastly different 'world narratives' than - perhaps - you do.
Not that 'right/wrong, accurate/inaccurate ' being the most important consequence.
Rather, totally different perceptions of what is 'real' and what is not.

I am a staunch advocate for both 'Science' and 'Reason' itself.
While veering off into Robert Pirsig's 'Church of Reason' concept is far beyond the scope (and, possibly, relevance), of this post, suffice to say my respect for the gainful employment of these mechanisms does not shroud the intrinsic, ever evolving nature of these matters.

(Off topic, that Hi Crush outfit that sparked our last back and forth regarding Chesapeake's banruptcy has just emerged from Chapter 11 and appears to be stronger than ever. Whatever one may think of the US Bankruptcy code, it routinely provides pathways for minimal destruction when fuck ups, greed, happenstance upheavals arise in the marketplace.)
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 03:18:30

Juan
I completely agree that it is to questionable effect to donate 100 bucks to Greenpeace.
That those shysters are so bereft of integrity is why I named them as being a particularly odious 'penance' that I will pay should I err on the status of the Presidency on January 20/21.

No worries.
I plan on giving the 100 to a different charity after DJT continues in office.
The specific effect was to hopefully jar interested readers into recognizing the vast chasms of world narratives created (purposefully?) to sow rancor amongst men and women of good will.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 08:32:08

This is a very good, small, nonprofit NGO to donate to: No Scalpel Vasectomy International. They provide free vasectomies to poor people all over the world. I know as a fact that the founders cover all their traveling and accommodation expenses out of their own pockets and do not profit personally in ANY way, and 100% of the money donated goes to provide free vasectomies, train Third World doctors on how to perform the procedure, and providing said doctors with the resources necessary to do this.
https://www.nsvi.org

Your $100 would go a long way with them.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 09:35:45

JuanP wrote:This is a very good, small, nonprofit NGO to donate to: No Scalpel Vasectomy International. They provide free vasectomies to poor people all over the world. I know as a fact that the founders cover all their traveling and accommodation expenses out of their own pockets and do not profit personally in ANY way, and 100% of the money donated goes to provide free vasectomies, train Third World doctors on how to perform the procedure, and providing said doctors with the resources necessary to do this.
https://www.nsvi.org Your $100 would go a long way with them.


Awe Gawd, what does a vasectomy have to do with Peal Oil?? Lets stay on topic shall we!
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby Pops » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 09:38:49

Boy, have I lost the plot here...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 11:45:28

AdamB wrote:
warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:And those timelines from those reports....where might they be? :lol: :lol:


You posted one chart that proved my point - not yours. Demand is being met with synthetic oil...


What are you calling synthetic oil? Motor oil made from natural gas, that I use in the engine of my car?

warpig13 wrote:Peak oil is about conventional oil, but of course you knew that.


I look at a list of all the global oil types that are listed and I still can't find "conventional" on it. Perhaps you can tell me which you are talking about? "Synthetic" isn't on the list either.

So..you really know better than to talk about the time frames for your favorite military doom scenarios, don't you? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Silly doomer, tricks are for kids. Rinse, recycle, repeat old doom claims, is that all you've got? 8)


I won't reply to anything further from you... you're a waste of time.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 16:28:51

warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
warpig13 wrote:
AdamB wrote:And those timelines from those reports....where might they be? :lol: :lol:


You posted one chart that proved my point - not yours. Demand is being met with synthetic oil...


What are you calling synthetic oil? Motor oil made from natural gas, that I use in the engine of my car?

warpig13 wrote:Peak oil is about conventional oil, but of course you knew that.


I look at a list of all the global oil types that are listed and I still can't find "conventional" on it. Perhaps you can tell me which you are talking about? "Synthetic" isn't on the list either.

So..you really know better than to talk about the time frames for your favorite military doom scenarios, don't you? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Silly doomer, tricks are for kids. Rinse, recycle, repeat old doom claims, is that all you've got? 8)


I won't reply to anything further from you... you're a waste of time.

When refusing to reply to the voice of credible data and sanity and math and science and experience in oil is a "waste of time", that says ALL that needs to be said for you or your ilk.

Good luck with your loony bin postings. Over time, you'll need it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 18:43:29

coffeeguyzz wrote:Plant
Yesterday's (Dec. 5) Georgia rally by Trump was watched live by over 275,000 people on RSBN livestream.
The OAN feed had ~120,000 live viewers.
For context, this ~400,000 cohort roughly equates to the circulation numbers of the #4 and #5 US newspapers ... the NY Post and LA Times.
The fact that you may be completely unaware of what RSBN and OAN are is secondary in significance to the obvious fact that these hundreds of thousands of people have vastly different 'world narratives' than - perhaps - you do.


Thats interesting.

I had no idea the OAN site had so many followers and viewers and all I know about it is that it was banned by FACEBOOK.

AND you're right--- I've never even heard of RSBN before.


coffeeguyzz wrote:I am a staunch advocate for both 'Science' and 'Reason' itself.
While veering off into Robert Pirsig's 'Church of Reason' concept is far beyond the scope (and, possibly, relevance), of this post, suffice to say my respect for the gainful employment of these mechanisms does not shroud the intrinsic, ever evolving nature of these matters.


I read Robert Pirsig a long time ago. IMHO His concept of the "The Church of Reason" is actually just an example of sloppy thinking. Pirsig seems to have some kind of dislike for universities, so he maintains that a real physical University with its classrooms and professors isn't the "real" University but instead the knowledge taught there is the "real" university so the "real" university would continue to exist even if the physical University was closed. This is obviously nonsense. Pirsing is just using sloppy language. If a university closes then it is gone...it no longer exists. The body of knowledge does continue to exist, but the University is dead and closed and gone. They aren't the same thing of course. Pirsig is incorrectly claiming that the word "university" means "body of knowledge" ....but it doesn't. The word university is derived from the Latin phrase universitas magistrorum et scholarium, which roughly means "community of teachers and scholars", i.e. the university is the actual community of people, ie. the institution....not the knowledge they have.

(
coffeeguyzz wrote:Off topic, that Hi Crush outfit that sparked our last back and forth regarding Chesapeake's banruptcy has just emerged from Chapter 11 and appears to be stronger than ever. Whatever one may think of the US Bankruptcy code, it routinely provides pathways for minimal destruction when fuck ups, greed, happenstance upheavals arise in the marketplace.)


Glad to hear Hi-Crush has emerged from Chapter 11. Chesapeake energy, on the other hand, is still in bankruptcy I believe.

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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby warpig13 » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 19:11:59

Outcast_Searcher wrote:When refusing to reply to the voice of credible data and sanity and math and science and experience in oil is a "waste of time", that says ALL that needs to be said for you or your ilk.

Good luck with your loony bin postings. Over time, you'll need it.


There was nothing credible, sane, mathematical, scientific or experienced in any of that... it was just a chart without a clear explanation as to it's relevance. I can't be arsed playing guessing games... it's childish and neither will I be led on a wild goose chase, because someone doesn't like what I'm saying and then deciding to use a traditional trolling technique to derail my thread.

For the record Peak Oil is defined as " Peak oil refers to the hypothetical point at which global crude oil production will hit its maximum rate." Synthetic oil (fossil fuel derivatives) are not crude oil. Likewise, there ARE NOT multiple peak oils as was suggested, there is just one and that was around 2005-8.

If you're able to make a succinct on-topic point in a friendly manner, I'll reply, if not - I won't.
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Re: Peak Oil > Covid 19 > Great Reset

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 21:21:16

warpig13 wrote:I won't reply to anything further from you... you're a waste of time.


Again with the "gee I can't answer any questions because it might require I learn something, so quick pretend it's the other guys fault!" routine? Expand your horizons a little, do some thinking before typing? Maybe compare your "conventional" oil to all the global benchmarks and try and figure out even what you mean by that? Really, if you can't describe a thing properly, how is anyone else supposed to know what you are talking about?
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 07 Dec 2020, 23:13:41

Plantagenet wrote:
I had no idea the OAN site had so many followers and viewers and all I know about it is that it was banned by FACEBOOK.



I'm sure some of the visitors to that site are just like me -- going there for our amusement. Their top story right now is "President Trump: The Election Was Totally Rigged"!
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Re: Peak Oil - 2020 fore sight

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 08 Dec 2020, 08:48:23

"Time for record global oil demand may have already passed, Russia says"
https://www.rt.com/business/508826-reco ... nd-russia/

The Russians seem to be calling Peak Oil. Will this website become popular again if people become aware that Peak Oil is already here?

I would recommend to the moderators, owners, and/or managers of this site to eliminate the unmoderated news forums comments threads, which do not help give a good impression to newcomers and no longer serve any useful purpose because of all the nonsense posted there. People who see that think this site is a joke.
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