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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 10:33:08

Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 10:53:46

ralfy wrote:In 2006, the IEA stated in one feature that peak oil won't take place for around three decades, that any lack of supply will be due to above-ground problems, and that by 2015 world demand would reach around 115 Mbd thanks to robust economic growth, and that oil producers would easily meet it.


And in 2010 Fatih Birol declared peak oil had happened in 2006.

Puts them right up there with palm readers and those dumb enough to worship them.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 13:58:25

dcoyne78 wrote:Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).



You think by 2030 that 95% of new vehicle sales will be EV's?

Maybe you missed that the world is BANKRUPT!

It is more likely that most people will have to resort to horseback riding in the near future due to the upcoming second leg of the greatest depression that is occurring.

How are these assholes going to pay for these EV's? With confetti money that is collapsing? Last time I checked nearly 51 Million Americans were unemployed by the scamdemic which raised unemployment levels to nearly 35%.

Who are the people who are going to completely revamp and scale up the infrastructure needed to run EV's nationwide?

Where are they going to get the funds to scale and revamp the infrastructure?.....It would require an insane stimulus that guess what? IT WOULD NEVER GET TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE BECAUSE CRIMINALS ARE RUNNING THE SYSTEM.

What do you morons think is happening with all the current stimulus? It is being LOOTED.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 14:11:59

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).



You think by 2030 that 95% of new vehicle sales will be EV's?

Maybe you missed that the world is BANKRUPT!

It is more likely that most people will have to resort to horseback riding in the near future due to the upcoming second leg of the greatest depression that is occurring.

How are these assholes going to pay for these EV's? With confetti money that is collapsing? Last time I checked nearly 51 Million Americans were unemployed by the scamdemic which raised unemployment levels to nearly 35%.

Who are the people who are going to completely revamp and scale up the infrastructure needed to run EV's nationwide?

Where are they going to get the funds to scale and revamp the infrastructure?.....It would require an insane stimulus that guess what? IT WOULD NEVER GET TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE BECAUSE CRIMINALS ARE RUNNING THE SYSTEM.

What do you morons think is happening with all the current stimulus? It is being LOOTED.


You seem frustrated and angry. That makes you very ordinary just like billions of others using social media... Wouldn't you prefer to be special?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 15:31:43

Ibon wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).



You think by 2030 that 95% of new vehicle sales will be EV's?

Maybe you missed that the world is BANKRUPT!

It is more likely that most people will have to resort to horseback riding in the near future due to the upcoming second leg of the greatest depression that is occurring.

How are these assholes going to pay for these EV's? With confetti money that is collapsing? Last time I checked nearly 51 Million Americans were unemployed by the scamdemic which raised unemployment levels to nearly 35%.

Who are the people who are going to completely revamp and scale up the infrastructure needed to run EV's nationwide?

Where are they going to get the funds to scale and revamp the infrastructure?.....It would require an insane stimulus that guess what? IT WOULD NEVER GET TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE BECAUSE CRIMINALS ARE RUNNING THE SYSTEM.

What do you morons think is happening with all the current stimulus? It is being LOOTED.


You seem frustrated and angry. That makes you very ordinary just like billions of others using social media... Wouldn't you prefer to be special?



Ibon and the other retards....we are entering into the leg of the greatest depression. The US is being systematically destructed and the implosion is imminent....

We are about to have a Soviet Union style collapse

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold ... st-arrived
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 17:02:50

Ibon wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:What do you morons think is happening with all the current stimulus? It is being LOOTED.


You seem frustrated and angry. That makes you very ordinary just like billions of others using social media... Wouldn't you prefer to be special?



BBWWAAHHAAA!!! Good one Ibon. [smilie=eusa_clap.gif]
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 19 Dec 2020, 17:07:11

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:Ibon and the other retards....we are entering into the leg of the greatest depression. The US is being systematically destructed and the implosion is imminent....

We are about to have a Soviet Union style collapse


<yawn>

Yeah, that's what doomers said last time. You need to juice it up a bit. MZBs, long pork, the doomer porn from 12 years ago going into the Great Recession had far more imagination.

I'll see your greatest depression and raise you alien overlords and the Illuminati.

Don't you have anything better than the last time?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Pops » Sun 20 Dec 2020, 08:53:10

dcoyne78 wrote:Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).


Dennis, I think people have no idea what the TCO is for their particular vehicle. THe difference between economics and marketing is marketers know people aren't rational actors, LOL
Folks mostly consider the payment and how dashing they look driving their chariot. Edmunds True Cost for a Camry is ~$30k over 5 years; the cheapest F-150 is $40+. Still the F150 is the #1 selling vehicle, selling 3 times the volume of the Camry. Full size pickups and sorta pickups look like they outsell all the little cars. A good portion of the country is afraid to wear a mask for fear of looking like [insert homophobic reference of choice], I don't think that half will ever drive a battery powered car until ICEs are outlawed or gas is above... I don't know, 6-8-10 dollars. Certainly if oil production stays in surplus the next few years I'll bet a dollar that those jacked up coffee cup haulers keep rolling coal!

But that's just a "marketer's" WAG, LOL
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 20 Dec 2020, 11:10:55

Pops wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:Pops,

Thanks for the reply.

At current oil prices, TCO for Tesla Model 3 standard Range+ and a Toyota Camry similarly equipped are quite similar. As prices for batteries (and EVs fall) and oil prices increase EVs will have a lower TCO than ICEVs, eventually people will wake up to this fact as well as charging infrastructure being built out over time. By 2025 EV sales will likely be 40% or more of new vehicle sales and by 2030 it will likely be around 95% (OECD nations and most middle income nations). Even though it will take another 12 to 15 years to replace most of the ICEV fleet, probably 75% or more of vehicle miles travelled are in newer vehicles (5 years old or less).
Dennis, I think people have no idea what the TCO is for their particular vehicle.


I am considering electric but it will likely be next year or year after. I am studying new EV, PHEV, and used EV. I would like to keep my wife's Outback becuase it is such a good vehicle and paid for. I still have low miles on it. I thought about a used Leaf but I have read some bad press on used Leafs. I considered a Rav4 PHEV at one point but you can't get them around here. I may wait a little longer and buy new EV. I don't drive much since we live and work on the farm but we do travel to a nearby town for supplies which is a short trip. My goal ultimately is putting up more pannels dedicated to charging an EV. When the pannels are not charging it could feed back to the grid. I already have a home system with batteries and inverter. I am fine as-is but I enjoy solar and find EV's interesting.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 20 Dec 2020, 12:02:48

I am waiting for a 4 seater electric off road 4x4 that we can charge at night with our micro hydro. I need this vehicle because of all those aging baby boomer eco tourist consumers that fly in their airplanes to come down and see the quetzals and bellbirds. Many of them arrive with limited mobility due to knee and hip replacements but they still demand to get into the cloud forest to see the birds. As long as they keep coming and dropping $ 200 a night they are an integral part still of our economic sustainability. The quiet electric hum of an off road 4x4 powered by our hydro will move silently through the forest so we can sneak up on tapirs and jaguars.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 21 Dec 2020, 19:01:17

Is shale collapsing? Down 1.9 mbpd from its highs?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Pops » Tue 22 Dec 2020, 12:25:07

Armageddon wrote:Is shale collapsing? Down 1.9 mbpd from its highs?

IEA says demand will collapse this year by 8.8mb/d
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Dec 2020, 20:37:55

Pops wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Is shale collapsing? Down 1.9 mbpd from its highs?

IEA says demand will collapse this year by 8.8mb/d


8.82 mmbbl/day of petroleum and other liquids according to the EIA STEO.

Still down 3.06 mmbbl/day even in 2021.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Dec 2020, 15:26:11

Ibon wrote:I am waiting for a 4 seater electric off road 4x4 that we can charge at night with our micro hydro. I need this vehicle because of all those aging baby boomer eco tourist consumers that fly in their airplanes to come down and see the quetzals and bellbirds. Many of them arrive with limited mobility due to knee and hip replacements but they still demand to get into the cloud forest to see the birds. As long as they keep coming and dropping $ 200 a night they are an integral part still of our economic sustainability. The quiet electric hum of an off road 4x4 powered by our hydro will move silently through the forest so we can sneak up on tapirs and jaguars.

If low power hydro isn't enough, solar / battery storage isn't doable? Especially when the folks visiting will be paying for it? Even a small system to start would be a help, and hopefully battery prices will come down a LOT in the coming years if you want to ramp such a system up over time. (Oh, and having spare green power if the hydro has a problem would seem like a good thing -- the paying guests won't like outages).

Sorry if that's a dumb question, but it seemed like an obvious one.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 25 Dec 2020, 08:33:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Ibon wrote:I am waiting for a 4 seater electric off road 4x4 that we can charge at night with our micro hydro. I need this vehicle because of all those aging baby boomer eco tourist consumers that fly in their airplanes to come down and see the quetzals and bellbirds. Many of them arrive with limited mobility due to knee and hip replacements but they still demand to get into the cloud forest to see the birds. As long as they keep coming and dropping $ 200 a night they are an integral part still of our economic sustainability. The quiet electric hum of an off road 4x4 powered by our hydro will move silently through the forest so we can sneak up on tapirs and jaguars.

If low power hydro isn't enough, solar / battery storage isn't doable? Especially when the folks visiting will be paying for it? Even a small system to start would be a help, and hopefully battery prices will come down a LOT in the coming years if you want to ramp such a system up over time. (Oh, and having spare green power if the hydro has a problem would seem like a good thing -- the paying guests won't like outages).

Sorry if that's a dumb question, but it seemed like an obvious one.


It is the whole DC to AC inverter issue and battery storage that dissuades me from adding solar power to our project. Our hydro system is based on a pelton wheel that spins a 220V AC generator. A governor (load controller) distributes the power between usage and dump. 8 kilowatt 24/7, no batteries, no inverters. The design is eloquent in its simplicity.

Adding solar would require panels, inverters, batteries and tying this into our existing system, not any different than when you tie solar into an existing grid. But the amount of hardware to just add a couple additional KW of intermittent power? no thanks!

More important, there is also something very rewarding about taking this finite amount of hydro power and making due with what you have instead of scheming how to generate more, more, more power....
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 26 Dec 2020, 07:33:46

Ibon wrote:Adding solar would require panels, inverters, batteries and tying this into our existing system, not any different than when you tie solar into an existing grid. But the amount of hardware to just add a couple additional KW of intermittent power? no thanks! More important, there is also something very rewarding about taking this finite amount of hydro power and making due with what you have instead of scheming how to generate more, more, more power....


I would recommend putting up pannels and have some batteries but do DC only for lighting and maybe a frig in your guest rooms. Have a bigger system in the main building but again DC for frig and lights. This frees up the hydro to focus on bigger loads. You are in a great latitude for sun don't waste it. Have some backup and redundancy. Charge your batteries as needed with hydro.

I am a prepper so I recommend multiple systems and redundancy. In my case I have solar, grid, and generator. I space heat and heat water with wood but with electric backup. A heat exchanger off a loop on the wood boiler feeds hot water to the water heater. I can take the water heater out of the loop if power goes down. The water heater ensures plenty of hot water. If it is fed 180 degree water it does not work much. In the summer I do solar thermal, and electric. I am using the same concept of preheating the water going into the electric water heater. In the summer I am utilizing the the plumbing and tank of the wood boiler minus the wood. So the solar thermal heats the water in the boiler tank. This heated water is circulating like during the winter when I heat with wood. My solar system runs the small pumps in the wood boiler. I also have some small space heaters I can use if I have excess solar in the winter. This is what I call a hybrid system of on/off grid system. It is working great for me. Of course it was not free. All the hardware cost me $30K.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 26 Dec 2020, 08:49:19

REAL Green wrote:
Ibon wrote:Adding solar would require panels, inverters, batteries and tying this into our existing system, not any different than when you tie solar into an existing grid. But the amount of hardware to just add a couple additional KW of intermittent power? no thanks! More important, there is also something very rewarding about taking this finite amount of hydro power and making due with what you have instead of scheming how to generate more, more, more power....


I would recommend putting up pannels and have some batteries but do DC only for lighting and maybe a frig in your guest rooms. Have a bigger system in the main building but again DC for frig and lights. This frees up the hydro to focus on bigger loads. You are in a great latitude for sun don't waste it. Have some backup and redundancy. Charge your batteries as needed with hydro.

I am a prepper so I recommend multiple systems and redundancy. In my case I have solar, grid, and generator. I space heat and heat water with wood but with electric backup. A heat exchanger off a loop on the wood boiler feeds hot water to the water heater. I can take the water heater out of the loop if power goes down. The water heater ensures plenty of hot water. If it is fed 180 degree water it does not work much. In the summer I do solar thermal, and electric. I am using the same concept of preheating the water going into the electric water heater. In the summer I am utilizing the the plumbing and tank of the wood boiler minus the wood. So the solar thermal heats the water in the boiler tank. This heated water is circulating like during the winter when I heat with wood. My solar system runs the small pumps in the wood boiler. I also have some small space heaters I can use if I have excess solar in the winter. This is what I call a hybrid system of on/off grid system. It is working great for me. Of course it was not free. All the hardware cost me $30K.



Some good suggestions there. For the moment we are still juggling 24 hour 8kw power and making due. Separating out the solar for lighting and refridgeration is a good idea. I also have purchased the pumps and materials to add active solar thermal to feed into our electric hot water tank as you suggested, I haven't gotten around to doing the install. I should have had plenty of time the past 8 months with so few tourists, for some reason this whole pandemic has recalibrated my mental state by which procrastination has increased as has stopping during the day to more frequently marvel at the natural world. A decline of motivation and productivity maybe is part of the adaptation as well? Counter intuitive but degrowth is alot about doing less and making due with what you have. That is perhaps the main reason I am less motivated to optimize our energy systems! This is an aging process issue as well which you touched on with another post.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 27 Dec 2020, 00:48:13

Ibon wrote:It is the whole DC to AC inverter issue and battery storage that dissuades me from adding solar power to our project. Our hydro system is based on a pelton wheel that spins a 220V AC generator. A governor (load controller) distributes the power between usage and dump. 8 kilowatt 24/7, no batteries, no inverters. The design is eloquent in its simplicity.

Adding solar would require panels, inverters, batteries and tying this into our existing system, not any different than when you tie solar into an existing grid. But the amount of hardware to just add a couple additional KW of intermittent power? no thanks!

More important, there is also something very rewarding about taking this finite amount of hydro power and making due with what you have instead of scheming how to generate more, more, more power....


I saw a video years and years ago when YouTube was new of a guy who had set up a DC motor on his solar panel feed that was belt drive connected to an AC generator. Not as nifty as an inverter, but it did the trick and he basically scavenged the parts for little or nothing from old appliances being disposed of. You could do something like that so long as you had a frequency controller to make sure the generator phase matches your pelton wheel. Actually based on your description you do not capture the entire flow of the stream so you could probably add additional hydro capacity as easy as any of the other suggestions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 27 Dec 2020, 13:03:03

Subjectivist wrote: Actually based on your description you do not capture the entire flow of the stream so you could probably add additional hydro capacity as easy as any of the other suggestions.


There you go. I didn't mention that yet but you tuned right into the easiest solution. Just drop the elevation of the pelton wheel and generator down another 50 feet and presto! 10KW. Both the pelton wheel and generator are rated for 10KW and the current set up only produces 8KW.

The drawback of this idea is that the pelton wheel and generator would then be quite far from the common area. At the moment both are located just 75 feet down stream from where the road passes the stream and every day I am passing the area and within visual and hearing range of the shed where everything is housed. This visual contact and listening to the frequency in the distance of both the generator and pelton wheel provides me with a quick check that the system is running well. I don't like moving this further downstream because I lose that close connection to daily monitor everything as I walk nearby. But since the whole system is basically maintenance free since 10 years it would be an option.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 27 Dec 2020, 13:57:51

Ibon wrote:
Subjectivist wrote: Actually based on your description you do not capture the entire flow of the stream so you could probably add additional hydro capacity as easy as any of the other suggestions.


There you go. I didn't mention that yet but you tuned right into the easiest solution. Just drop the elevation of the pelton wheel and generator down another 50 feet and presto! 10KW. Both the pelton wheel and generator are rated for 10KW and the current set up only produces 8KW.

The drawback of this idea is that the pelton wheel and generator would then be quite far from the common area. At the moment both are located just 75 feet down stream from where the road passes the stream and every day I am passing the area and within visual and hearing range of the shed where everything is housed. This visual contact and listening to the frequency in the distance of both the generator and pelton wheel provides me with a quick check that the system is running well. I don't like moving this further downstream because I lose that close connection to daily monitor everything as I walk nearby. But since the whole system is basically maintenance free since 10 years it would be an option.


Running the pelton wheel and generator at 100% of their capacity 24/365 would likely make them less reliable and more likely to fail or break. Running them at 80% of their capacity is probably better. I always try to avoid running engines and mechanical systems at 100% of their capacity because of the strain you put on them.
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