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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 23:34:58

Armageddon wrote:We are experiencing global energy shortages and these two same fools are claiming we aren’t past PO.


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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 15:36:38

AdamB wrote:

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Yes, the petroleum industry has done an amazing job of pulling rabbits out of a hat and embarrassing the many people who have made predictions of peak oil in the past. I did believe we had reached peak oil in 2008 but the industry pulled another rabbit out of the hat in the form of fracking of light tight oil However the realities of geology dictate that we cannot indefinitely keep increasing oil production. There are some facts which suggest we could now be on the cusp of peak oil but we'll have to wait to see if the industry is once again able to pull a rabbit out of the hat!
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 16:50:00

yellowcanoe wrote:
AdamB wrote:

Image


Yes, the petroleum industry has done an amazing job of pulling rabbits out of a hat and embarrassing the many people who have made predictions of peak oil in the past.


Yes. Everyone knows that. Well...non congregation members anyway. But that wasn't the refrain at peak oil forums 15 years ago when folks would be banned for knowing it, even back then.

yellowcanoe wrote: I did believe we had reached peak oil in 2008 but the industry pulled another rabbit out of the hat in the form of fracking of light tight oil


Yes indeedy. Completion techniques that have been used for 60 years in the oilfield came as a sudden surprise to the uninformed. You would think if you wanted to create a rapture event, and were going to use peak oil to do it, you would LEARN something about the industry first, don't you think?

yellowcanoe wrote:However the realities of geology dictate that we cannot indefinitely keep increasing oil production. There are some facts which suggest we could now be on the cusp of peak oil but we'll have to wait to see if the industry is once again able to pull a rabbit out of the hat!


Hubbert was right, even in 1956, when he explained the math of growth of extraction of finite resources. But that wasn't good enough for the Prophets to sell to the acolytes, pesky logic and math, nope. They needed doom, it can't ever be too far in the future (plus suckers will always come back after a bad call, it isn't as though they THOUGHT their way into the church, right?), and so who needs to know anything? 7 claimed peak oils (that I can name without looking) this century (including the most recent), peak oil has it all over the Mayan calendar and Nibiru for the faithful.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 27 Oct 2021, 10:00:30

BREAKING NEWS:

THE GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS IS SEVERE ENOUGH THAT IT COULD FUEL SOCIAL UNREST AND WORSEN INFLATION - BLACKSTONE CEO, STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Oct 2021, 11:53:49

AdamB wrote:Hubbert was right, even in 1956, when he explained the math of growth of extraction of finite resources. But that wasn't good enough for the Prophets to sell to the acolytes, pesky logic and math, nope. They needed doom, it can't ever be too far in the future (plus suckers will always come back after a bad call, it isn't as though they THOUGHT their way into the church, right?), and so who needs to know anything? 7 claimed peak oils (that I can name without looking) this century (including the most recent), peak oil has it all over the Mayan calendar and Nibiru for the faithful.

The thing that really bothers me over time is that almost EVERY time, the fast crash doom re oil peak folks use the SAME damn chart. (They just move the dates). It always shows oil production going off a cliff in our face.

And they never give a good reason the collapse should be so soon and so steep THIS time. ("This time is different", "the economy can't afford to produce enough oil", "thermodynamics", etc. just don't cut it, no matter how often they try it, given they have no real supporting data, science, etc. behind such claims.

The next big peak will be a DEMAND peak, within the next few decades due to green ground vehicles coming to dominate vehicle locomotion, vs. hydrocarbon burning ground vehicles.

(Hopefully planes will follow, but that remains to be seen).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Oct 2021, 12:22:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The thing that really bothers me over time is that almost EVERY time, the fast crash doom re oil peak folks use the SAME damn chart. (They just move the dates). It always shows oil production going off a cliff in our face.


A theory I have derived from watching these antics for 16 years now, is that doom claimed too far off in the future has no attraction. It sort of makes sense, humans are near term thinkers, a day, a season, recycle it all within a year. Armie is a perfect example of this, he has a documented history of proclaiming doom incessantly for approaching two decades now, and as time moves past one claim, he just rinses, recycles and repeats, without a seconds thought to the illogical nature of such a thing, or its proof of his own gullibility. It doesn't require logic of course, as the entire point of comparing peak oilers or doomers in general to a church congregation is because the entire game is primarily about belief, not facts, science or logic. Those are cherry picked as the needs arise, but you know they are irrelevant because they are jettisoned the instant they are discredited by reality. Which obviously disproves the claimed link in the first place. Armie isn't the only one, just one of the most blatantly obvious around here. Big names do it as well. Heinberg, Hirsch, Tom Whipple, many of the known names from peak oil circa 2005 (#2 claim of the century) seem to operate in a similar fashion.

A corollary to this idea, is that it explains why Happy McPeaksters didn't immediately move into Happy McClimate doom, after the end-on-face debacles of the first decade of this century. Or even if they did, came swarming back to peak oil during claims in the 2nd decade of this century. Climate doom just doesn't have the global consequences they want, no, they NEED, tomorrow afternoon. It got warmer last year! Run for the hills! No pizzazz.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
The next big peak will be a DEMAND peak, within the next few decades due to green ground vehicles coming to dominate vehicle locomotion, vs. hydrocarbon burning ground vehicles.

(Hopefully planes will follow, but that remains to be seen).


Peak demand needs to happen because it needs to happen. I don't know if people are smart enough to do it enmasse, and on purpose though.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 27 Oct 2021, 12:26:26

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The thing that really bothers me over time is that almost EVERY time, the fast crash doom re oil peak folks use the SAME damn chart. (They just move the dates). It always shows oil production going off a cliff in our face.

And they never give a good reason the collapse should be so soon and so steep THIS time. ("This time is different", "the economy can't afford to produce enough oil", "thermodynamics", etc. just don't cut it, no matter how often they try it, given they have no real supporting data, science, etc. behind such claims.


I would agree with you -- a steep decline in oil production would require that a high percentage of existing oil fields suddenly go into a steep decline and I don't see how that could happen. However the impact of peak oil is going to vary widely. I would expect it to be quite damaging to poorer countries that depend entirely on imports. Initially at least, I would not expect a huge impact on wealthy countries, especially those that produce oil.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Oct 2021, 15:09:35

yellowcanoe wrote: However the impact of peak oil is going to vary widely. I would expect it to be quite damaging to poorer countries that depend entirely on imports. Initially at least, I would not expect a huge impact on wealthy countries, especially those that produce oil.

Completely fair. Especially if the impact of "peak oil" in the next 3 decades is primarily that peak is peak demand. But if that's true and it results in a big drop in crude oil prices, it will be GOOD for third world counties lacking the infrastructure to support massive amounts of EV's in the next couple decades or so -- countries running lots of ICE's would WELCOME much lower crude oil prices.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby radon1 » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 04:24:32

Wonder where this electricity for EVs will come from. ICE utilizes about 30-40% of energy produced, the rest is lost to heat, and this is a very good ratio. Now we need to produce electricity at some ratio, then transport it at some ratio, then store at some ratio, then utilize in an EV at some ratio. So many additional steps and who knows how good these ratios are compared to ICE's. Where will all this additional energy come from without hydrocarbons?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 09:04:13

What the Blackstone guy Schwarzman is talking about is lack of investment in new production due to pressure on pensions, endowments etc to divest from fossils. James Hansen had an op-ed somewhere a couple of days ago bragging on the 40 trillion or whatever that activists have convinced to do just that. I was going to post on that very thing.

Everyone reading here knows that the overall decline rate, sans new production, is somewhere between 3-8% per year, take away the financing of new production and that is the reduction in supply per year. No great mystery.

Take how slowly LTO drilling, financed now mostly by private money rather than the firehose of institutions, is ramping up. Companies are completing DUCs rather than new drilling and interestingly LTO production per new well is way up, showing the DUCs were in the sweet spots and after they're gone, in a year or 2, production per well could plummet. Completing them now also shows I think, this appealing to institutions. The drillers' cashflow looks awesome without the pesky costs of actually drilling. Rig count still around 400, it was 600 pre-pandemic but frack spreads are working hard.

Fracking's other big problem is LTO wells just aren't living up to the hype. The Great Frack Scam's gig is up, turns out LTO wells will produce about a billion barrels less than promised.

So, finally, the transition seems to be underway. Peak oil appears likely this decade if one believe the PR of the oil majors and various politicians. The Jetsons vs Flintstones question is, will it be demand peak or supply peak?

Or will it be a supply crunch or peak caused not by geology but simple lack of funding?

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 09:17:46

radon1 wrote:Wonder where this electricity for EVs will come from.


Coal, if required. It isn't as though many First Worlders are going to give up creature comforts just to save the world. If the choice is save the planet and become Amish, or burn coal and move to higher ground and build air conditioning for everyone, First Worlders will do the latter.

radon1 wrote: ICE utilizes about 30-40% of energy produced, the rest is lost to heat, and this is a very good ratio. Now we need to produce electricity at some ratio, then transport it at some ratio, then store at some ratio, then utilize in an EV at some ratio. So many additional steps and who knows how good these ratios are compared to ICE's. Where will all this additional energy come from without hydrocarbons?


Peak oil isn't about running out, just gradually less. The uninformed publics idea appears to be that renewables will ramp up smoothly as all the claimed decreases in fossil fuel consumption ramp down. Unlikely, but politicians sell hopes and dreams for a living, regardless of the possible ugliness that they know will come with it.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 09:24:07

Pops wrote:Fracking's other big problem is LTO wells just aren't living up to the hype. The Great Frack Scam's gig is up, turns out LTO wells will produce about a billion barrels less than promised.


Depends on the starting point on the hype. David Hughes in 2006 claimed that North America would run out of natural gas within 10 years. Art Berman claimed that based on all his experience in the oil industry that the oil produced in the Bakken would never be significant. Oops. I'll take that kind of being wrong over industry folks gilding the lilly when it comes to well level projections. In either case, the usual McPeakster suspects were the ones who claimed that Saudi America couldn't happen. Turns out, give or take a billion here or there, drill-baby-drill and that idiot Sarah Palin knew more about US oil and gas potential than every peak oiler of a decade ago combined.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 11:26:12

Pops wrote:So, finally, the transition seems to be underway. Peak oil appears likely this decade if one believe the PR of the oil majors and various politicians. The Jetsons vs Flintstones question is, will it be demand peak or supply peak?

Or will it be a supply crunch or peak caused not by geology but simple lack of funding?


While I understand the psychological attraction of the "Demand Peak" hypothesis I find every argument in favor rather specious. IOW I am firmly convinced the peak when we get it will be a supply problem. Low supply will drive prices much higher which will cause demand destruction until the supply/demand situation comes back into balance.

The trick at that point will be deploying substitutes that will then be economic to fill in the decline gap. We have known how to do natural gas to synthetic fuel and coal gassification to synthetic fuel for at least a century if not longer at this point. Heck during the 1975-1990 period South Africa supplied its internal fuel needs by converting its abundant coal resources into liquid fuels. It did that because the two choices were bribes that would have been even more expensive to import actual petroleum products or complying with the will of the world over what they considered internal political matters. There economy wasn't exactly booming but it survived the higher prices quite handily.

We used to spend a lot of time around the various threads discussing all these viable alternative fuels. Ammonia, synthetic diesel, synthetic gasoline, Unsymetric-Dimethyl-Hydrazine (UDMH), Synthetic methanol, biofuels, thermodepolymerization and so on and so forth. A lot of those threads still have stickies at the top of the Energy Tech forum because consensus was they all had viable niches where they could replace some of the Petroleum demand. Unfortunately the only tech solution that gets much discussion these days are BEV Battery Electric Vehicles as if we have so much spare generating capacity and can build more at need that this will be the only viable option.

B.S. never ever put all your hopes and dreams in a single tech solution, especially one that is dependent on expansion of an industry that is already troubled by the forces of NIMBY fighting against every new grid tie in, conventional power plant and associated land use.

The biggest blow-back against the German "Energywinde" program these days is the huge land use requirements of the fleets of windmills and fields of solar panels and their associated infrastructure and impact on the ecosystem of forests and farms in their deployment areas. Doing a 5%-15% intermittent renewable power supply is hard enough, taking it higher has tones of so far politically obscured costs. But politics is a human construct and can shift with extreme rapidity. Today German exports much of its "renewable" power production to the EU grid on days when everything it producing and imports lots of power from the grid whenever the renewables are having a bad day. This solution can only work up to a certain point because imports and exports have to be balanced by the grid operator and the lines have a fixed maximum capacity unless you add duplicate capacity. IMO the only thing that has let "Energywinde" function this long has been the relatively cheap energy produced by France with its fleet of fission reactors and Poland with its all coal grid. Poland is under huge pressure to scrap its domestically fired coal power grid and switch to renewables with no practical though given to how the citizens can afford the massive expenses involved. Even worse France is under pressure to abandon nuclear fission, the only major power supply other than Hydroelectric which produces grid scale power without CO2 releases.

Time for our 21st century civilization to grow up and face reality and true supply peak is going to be coming along spoiling political plans sooner than many seem to think.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 13:26:38

Tanada wrote:While I understand the psychological attraction of the "Demand Peak" hypothesis I find every argument in favor rather specious. IOW I am firmly convinced the peak when we get it will be a supply problem. Low supply will drive prices much higher which will cause demand destruction until the supply/demand situation comes back into balance.


How do you presume to be able to know the difference between the two, as it happens?


Tanada wrote:Time for our 21st century civilization to grow up and face reality and true supply peak is going to be coming along spoiling political plans sooner than many seem to think.


There is no technical reason for peak supply in this half of the 20th century, there is plenty of oil. The question is all about the price folks are willing to pay, or regulation and legislation that countries are willing to pass that could decrease demand by hook or by crook.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 14:21:05

The picture of Imports/Exports is definitely clouded by using apples and oranges comparisons. We can use BTU's, we can use all Liquid fuels , natural gas and oil liquids etc., but when one moves into specific defined variables...I.E. Crude oil production, which is what we are concerned with here, "mostly" the truth is just seemingly hard for some to swallow. What goes in and what goes out is very difficult to figure out with any certainty due to the problems of tracking what product goes where, where it is refined, and where it ends up for final consumption. There is a definite trend noted over the many years I have been watching this to confuse products from the well to the final user and I believe its done on purpose to move markets, especially the futures in pursuit of $.

Its not difficult or hard to find out what our CRUDE OIL consumption is and what our CRUDE OIL production is. Trying to deflect that simple paradigm of fact with confusing terminology, market driven speculation, dividing and measuring what goes in and out of every energy terminal, port, or refinery can be manipulated for whatever "side" of the debate/discussion one is on. Just like everything else these days I can find a well sourced documented article or paper supporting exactly opposing viewpoints to just about any topic on the planet. The big problem we all have is deciphering BS from truth.

We produce X and our demand currently is X+ How we solve the problem of the + part is and should be a simple calculation. I DO acknowledge the miracle of US fracking has created a much more favorable balance since 10-12 years ago, but as far as I can tell, we still use more than we produce when it comes to CRUDE OIL.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 16:20:59

AirlinePilot wrote: We produce X and our demand currently is X+ How we solve the problem of the + part is and should be a simple calculation. I DO acknowledge the miracle of US fracking has created a much more favorable balance since 10-12 years ago, but as far as I can tell, we still use more than we produce when it comes to CRUDE OIL.


Got a reference? Because there is information out there, and it tells the tale pretty well. Even on that unknown and hard to figure out CRUDE OIL. This article would appear to indicate that we import a net of 3 million a day of CRUDE OIL. That would support your statement. It would also indicate that when all was said and done with all those pesky products confusing products get involved, including crude oil, we are a net petroleum exporter. Long way from Happy McPeakster Heaven, ain't it!

Oh yeah, and those of us doing multi stage slick water fracturing in shale wells back in the latter half of the 80's through the mid-90's, we weren't doing miracles. Just a time tested and true 40 year old (then) completion technique.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 16:47:52

Tanada wrote:We have known how to do natural gas to synthetic fuel and coal gassification to synthetic fuel for at least a century if not longer at this point.

Yeahbutt oil prices were the highest level for the longest period in a century from 2005-2015 and yet none of the myriad technologies came to the rescue. Aside from wind and PV which I find remarkable. Still in 2019 90+% of vehicles sold globally are ICE—total fleet worldwide is 1.4 Billion and 100MM added annually.

It is easy to hand wave all the what ifs but just compare South Africa's actual per capita consumption of ALL energy to the US over the period mentioned:

Image https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG ... desc=false

CTL never did supply more than maybe half their consumption, and at that it has exemption from carbon rules and other government supports.
Image

I'm not gonna go down the list of all the reasons why all the possible alternatives are all still in the possible list, except to state the obvious, they are all still poor-to-non-viable alternatives, not replacements. The best alternative we in the US found during that period was conservation and we did surprisingly well. refer to that first chart of per capita consumption.

Sadly, in the US, the political stacking has so far put GW, green energy and any and all conservation and alternatives in the left column and left "rolling coal" in the right. It is stalemate to the point of incapacity. Yeah that could change quickly and we all move together in some sane direction but I'm gonna bet we won't any time soon. Heck we can't even get all the Ds together.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Oct 2021, 21:01:06

Pops wrote:
Tanada wrote:We have known how to do natural gas to synthetic fuel and coal gassification to synthetic fuel for at least a century if not longer at this point.

Yeahbutt oil prices were the highest level for the longest period in a century from 2005-2015 and yet none of the myriad technologies came to the rescue. Aside from wind and PV which I find remarkable. Still in 2019 90+% of vehicles sold globally are ICE—total fleet worldwide is 1.4 Billion and 100MM added annually.

It is easy to hand wave all the what ifs but just compare South Africa's actual per capita consumption of ALL energy to the US over the period mentioned:

Image https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG ... desc=false

CTL never did supply more than maybe half their consumption, and at that it has exemption from carbon rules and other government supports.
Image

I'm not gonna go down the list of all the reasons why all the possible alternatives are all still in the possible list, except to state the obvious, they are all still poor-to-non-viable alternatives, not replacements. The best alternative we in the US found during that period was conservation and we did surprisingly well. refer to that first chart of per capita consumption.

Sadly, in the US, the political stacking has so far put GW, green energy and any and all conservation and alternatives in the left column and left "rolling coal" in the right. It is stalemate to the point of incapacity. Yeah that could change quickly and we all move together in some sane direction but I'm gonna bet we won't any time soon. Heck we can't even get all the Ds together.


Respectfully I would point out that at a sustained $90-$110/bbl price range was still not high enough to incentivize a mass switch over, and those who took first steps in the technology all got stomped flat when the "shale miracle" crashed prices from June 2015 through around June 2021 coupled with the Covid disruptions. There were serious proposals in 2011-2014 for construction of conversion plants to make synthetic diesel from cheap Natural Gas. There was also the whole Thermodepolymerization craze that turns out to work great on waste plastic and tires and not so great on turkey guts and fish heads.

Heck last month I was reading about a California company that rebuilt a blast furnace and are using it to consume residential waste to produce synthesis gas that they then convert into synthetic diesel fuel. The produced gasses go to a big chemical reactor and the produced heat spins some steam turbines to produce electricity with the otherwise unused heat byproduct of the process. They have to generate steam as they inject a mix of steam and pure oxygen in the feed draft at the base of the furnace to increase the hydrogen content of the synthesis-gas they produce so using the steam to run a turbine first is kind of a no-brainer.

I agree right now you would have a hard time getting 20 politicians to agree on just about anything other than sending money to their pet causes and you need 218 House members and 51 Senators to accomplish anything. The fractured nature of both parties is kind of amazing about all the D's agree on is opposing anything suggested by an R and the same goes the other way as well. But at this point none of them are focused on anything but their own beltway bubble and their key financial supporters. If you are a big enough spender you might get favorable regulations passed but almost all of those are and executive department because the Congress has turned most of their actual power over to the President. The system is barely functioning at this point, we can certainly agree on that much.

I first heard of peak energy resources back in February 1982 when National Geographic dedicated a whole special issue to the topic. Before that it had never occurred to me that civilization could run out of basic energy because we are still mining a lot of the same minerals that were mined by ancient civilizations 3,000 years ago. If we never ran out of copper and iron why would we run out of coal and petroleum? Then I got clued in, when we dig up metals they tend to get recycled a lot. Heck a few grams of the iron in my car could have been part of a Roman sword 2,000 years ago and it has just been recycled a few thousand times since then. Petroleum, natural gas and coal on the other hand turn into water vapor and CO2 and the only way those currently get recycled is by growing plants. That is a whole different ballgame but I blame youth and inexperience for having had to get thumped upside the head by reality before I understood the profound difference between mining metals and energy. Unfortunately most consumers are either blissfully unaware or have completely ignored the issue because todays energy prices are sustainable with their income and lifestyle.

You are dead right that when prices started climbing in 2005 (remember how excited we were when Oil broke $50.bbl?) people started conserving. That fall and in 2006 I saw a lot of old economy cars like Ford Escorts and VW Rabbits pulled out of storage and put back on the road while the fancy gas guzzling SUV/Pickup got parked unless actually needed. Then as people got used to the higher prices they started driving dumb again just in time for the price crash August 2008. Prices climbed back up in 2009-2010 but by then the shock of $100/bbl no longer caught people unprepared and we stuck in that price band for 4 solid years with the economy puttering along not great but not terrible either.

The biggest killer of synthetic fuel's IMO is price volatility. Once we cross the peak the price will go high and stay high so projects like that natural gas to synthetic diesel system that was being planned in 2011-2014 will be planned and built and put into operation instead of the financial incentives disappearing just as everything seems about to be given a green light. Back in 1985 there were several oil majors who invested heavily in Shale Oil as in baking kerogen rich green river formation rocks to drain out the bitumen. Huge sums were invested a lot of it with Energy Department support. Then KSA decided to teach everyone a lesson and opened their taps wide dropping world oil prices to very low levels in 1986 which literally bankrupted several of the large corporate investors in green river shale production. This kind of volatility can only exist so long as their is a surplus that can be used to flood the world market.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Revi » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 02:38:37

It seems like the cost of extracting liquid fuel from anything other than petroleum is too high to create anything like the $2-3 gas we're used to getting. Maybe this signals the end of easy motoring. There are lots of alternatives. Perhaps people could drive less, or get around in mass transit. A small electric vehicle uses far less energy and could be used by a lot of people to get groceries, etc. The rest of the world gets around without taking 4000 pounds of steel and rubber to get things. I hate to say it, but maybe we could figure it out too...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Oct 2021, 09:18:04

Revi wrote:It seems like the cost of extracting liquid fuel from anything other than petroleum is too high to create anything like the $2-3 gas we're used to getting.


Why would an EV owner like you get used to liquid fuel prices? You haven't gone back over to the dark side have you?

Revi wrote: Maybe this signals the end of easy motoring. There are lots of alternatives. Perhaps people could drive less, or get around in mass transit. A small electric vehicle uses far less energy and could be used by a lot of people to get groceries, etc. The rest of the world gets around without taking 4000 pounds of steel and rubber to get things. I hate to say it, but maybe we could figure it out too...


I thought you already had? I've got 2 EVs now, and the only reason I plan on keeping an ICE powered machine around is for far off adventures, beyond the reach of the current charging infrastructure.
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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