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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 09:19:26

Here is Art Berman on youtube.
Investers are shorting oil... they're saying 'there's only 5 or 10 years more demand for oil... I think that's absurd


Here is the IEA WEO executive summary, not one mention of sustaining fossils while transitioning. All the focus is that clean-tech needs to increase exponentially

Here is the EIA STEO:
Oil prices have increased over the past year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first three quarters of 2021. In addition to sustained inventory draws, prices increased after the October 4 announcement by OPEC+ that the group would keep current production targets unchanged.



Mike S., OilyStuff
In spite of all that, every barrel of tight oil Texas now added to US production levels has to be exported to a foreign country; it comes out the ground, goes straight to the Gulf Coast, is put on a ship and sails away. Crude quality matters and US refiners simply can't use any more of the stuff.

Everybody is lying to you about the fact that we have enough shale oil to spare in our nation, that our resources are "unlimited," or that shale oil might be stranded in 5 years because of the transition to renewables and it needs to be produced now...that draining America first, for exports, is a good plan for our nations long term energy security.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-po ... rica-first



It may turn out that Gail was correct after all, the big problem we will face could be peak capitol. Overall energy supply falls due to lack of investment in fossils to sustain the switch. Fossils are still 75% of energy supply and especially the shales but all future production needs constant capitol flow.
.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 09:56:44

Pops wrote: Fossils are still 75% of energy supply and especially the shales but all future production needs constant capitol flow.


Art "there isn't significant shale oil in the US to make a difference circa 2011" Berman is a poster child for unidirectional doomer claims because he believes, rather than analyzes, but the other 2 seemed reasonable.

Having acquired companies, pipelines and been completing shale wells without a dime of outside money, borrowing money is nice, but not necessary. Working from within one's own means in industry (like when we couldn't borrow money after the 1986 price crash) is generally referred to as "bootstrapping", and while not conducive for increasing volume, mostly but not always can be employed to fight the natural decline of oil and gas production.

So a likely scenario without borrowing is back to the same old decline we had before, except initially steeper until the new wells level out. Bootstrapping, obviously, is far easier with high prices, and if the greens want to give that to industry, they will most certainly utilize it to their advantage. Just like 2011-2015, and we called that period of time "Becoming Saudi America", much to the chagrin of the Happy McDoomsters like Art.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 10:57:43

As Western Oil Giants Cut Production, State-Owned Companies Step Up
In the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, government-owned energy companies are increasing oil and natural gas production as U.S. and European companies pare supply because of climate concerns.

...The push by governments to increase oil and gas production means it could take decades for global fossil fuel supplies to decline unless there is a sharp drop in demand for such fuels.


Because of course, as we all know, oil supply is infinite.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 11:18:25

Pops wrote:
As Western Oil Giants Cut Production, State-Owned Companies Step Up
In the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, government-owned energy companies are increasing oil and natural gas production as U.S. and European companies pare supply because of climate concerns.

...The push by governments to increase oil and gas production means it could take decades for global fossil fuel supplies to decline unless there is a sharp drop in demand for such fuels.


Because of course, as we all know, oil supply is infinite.



Everything is infinite and will last forever according to these guys on here.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 14:21:29

BREAKING NEWS:

A KEY INDEX OF BASE METALS HITS RECORD HIGH AS ENERGY SHORTAGES CAUSE MANUFACTURERS TO CURTAIL OUTPUT


#pastpeakoil
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 14:44:53

One more,

The Economist
The first big energy shock of the green era

There are grave problems with the transition to clean energy power
Next month world leaders will gather at the cop26 summit, saying they mean to set a course for net global carbon emissions to reach zero by 2050. As they prepare to pledge their part in this 30-year endeavour, the first big energy scare of the green era is unfolding before their eyes. Since May the price of a basket of oil, coal and gas has soared by 95%. Britain, the host of the summit, has turned its coal-fired power stations back on, American petrol prices have hit $3 a gallon, blackouts have engulfed China and India, and Vladimir Putin has just reminded Europe that its supply of fuel relies on Russian goodwill.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 14:57:43

Putin just said Oil is going to hit $100/barrel again.

Image
Putin is doing a victory dance over the high oil prices....

Other forecasters say it might go to $150-$200 barrel.

Its hard to believe there was so much oil just a year again that oil prices were collapsing and oil was in contango.....and now we're looking at oil shortages.

I wonder if Joe Biden is rethinking his policy he put in place 8 months ago of restricting oil leases and fracking in the USA? Or can he even remember back that far?

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 16:33:52

Daligas becomes third UK energy supplier to collapse this week


Shit is getting real
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 16:44:51

BREAKING NEWS:

GAS SHORTAGE PROMPTS POWER PLANTS TO SWITCH TO OIL, A TREND THAT COULD ADD HALF A MILLION BARRELS A DAY TO GLOBAL DEMAND - IEA

So OPEC not budging, eh?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 21:36:08

More supply chains breaking. China cutting magnesium production due to electricity shortages.

Magnesium is used in products that benefit from being lightweight, such as car seats, luggage, laptops, cameras and power tools.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 14 Oct 2021, 21:43:27

Buddy works for a company that has aluminum parts made in China. Theyve just been notified that there will be disruption/delays due to them being told they have to cut production down to 3 days a week because of power shortages


Does anybody want to chime in on this current energy crises?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 15 Oct 2021, 22:29:41

Aluminum Shortages Next As "Magnesium Supply Dries Up"

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/u ... pply-dries
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 07:46:47

Plantagenet wrote:Putin just said Oil is going to hit $100/barrel again.

Image
Putin is doing a victory dance over the high oil prices....

Other forecasters say it might go to $150-$200 barrel.

Its hard to believe there was so much oil just a year again that oil prices were collapsing and oil was in contango.....and now we're looking at oil shortages.

I wonder if Joe Biden is rethinking his policy he put in place 8 months ago of restricting oil leases and fracking in the USA? Or can he even remember back that far?

Cheers!

If I was president, I would have done the same thing, in the same way. I don't know if Biden is demented, but we need to delay the consumption of those reserves. We might need them for ourselves. That's the way I would think. I wouldn't care if people thought I was crazy doing it. I might even be glad if they thought I was demented.

As far as the lag in adoption of alternatives, my acting this way would, essentially, be like when I add to my stock portfolio.

Sometimes, I can't buy everything I want. Neither should I. My portfolio is a strategic thing.

I do buy what I lack, when it is buying time. But I always look at the overall proportions before I do that, to see if I haven't added to something in so long. When I haven't added to something it can be for various reasons. Only one of those is that the price wasn't cheap enough.

It could be that, at an earlier time, I saw that I was overcapitalized in that position, such that it was too large a percentage of my portfolio. I was, therefore, looking away to concentrate on other things. However, when I re-evaluated, that stock was no longer overcapitalized in comparison. Sometimes, those positions can actually appear relatively weak, I have ignored them so long.

I think that's kind of where the US is with alternatives. We have underinvested. It isn't as if we have invested nothing at all, but we are still short of reaching something with understandable scalability as it undergoes adoption. That makes it harder for people to see a future that doesn't reach a roadblock when the first electrical car fire happens.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 14:48:00

You thought shortages were bad now with just the computer chips? Wait till the magnesium shortage (due to electricity in China) hits the aluminum industry.

Without enough aluminum, just about every product on the planet will be in shortage.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 15:02:55

Chinas 17 trillion economy .

78% of total Chinese assets are held in the property sector
30% of total GDP is in the property sector .

60 + developers pending default.

Consequences are mind bending .
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 16:02:43

evilgenius wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Polybius wrote:... a lot of the gig worker jobs in US actually pay net negative wages but in deperation the permanent and exponentially growing underclass of Americans are unwittingly reverse mortgaging away their own cars to pay themselves by essentially converting the accelerated depreciation of their vehicles assets into the illusion of an temporary income source....


Image

Think about it, man. That is exactly what is happening. Just because you encounter this with disbelief doesn't mean it isn't happening.


I did think about it. Hence my response. Can you reference how many people are reverse mortaging their cars? Is that like borrowing against a car already paid off? And people are doing this...BY ACCIDENT?

evil genius wrote: I worked with those people.


So...how did they not know that borrowing against their car was...borrowing against their car? Didn't they have to sign a paper or something, to allow at the least a lien to be initiated?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 08:40:49

Gasoline exports are way up, a record for the summer months:

Image

US gasoline stocks are way down and prices are rising, but hey, suck it up, its Saudi Merica Baby!

Image

We can beat our chest, the US is exporting more than it imports, woohoo...

Image

Although that means we aren't putting it in storage, not surprisingly Cushing oil stocks are getting low as well, 40% of capacity or so. Don't expect prices to go down soon.

Image

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/ar ... _print.php
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 12:13:44

Pops wrote: Cushing oil stocks are getting low as well, 40% of capacity or so. Don't expect prices to go down soon.


Yup.

On current trend we are setting ourselves up for a supply crunch and a spike in gasoline prices here in the USA.

But the good news is that the high gasoline prices are all part of Joe Biden's plan to shift the US to convertible energy

In fact, Just this morning Joe Biden said the price of oil and gasoline are going to continue to rise right into 2022.

biden-says-u-s-gasoline-prices-will-remain-high-into-2022]

So listen to Joe.

High gas prices are here to stay.

Image
Don't worry about the high gas prices. Its all part of Joe's plan.

And its a good thing. If we want to shift off fossil fuels, then high oil and gasoline prices will be helpful. Personally, I applaud Joe Biden for his role in increasing US gasoline prices.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 16:47:20

Does the US consume 20 MBPD of oil and only produce around 12mbpd?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 17:37:39

The United States became a net annual petroleum exporter in 2020
In 2020, the United States exported about 8.51 MMb/d and imported about 7.86 MMb/d of petroleum1, making the United States a net annual petroleum exporter for the first time since at least 1949. Also in 2020, the United States produced2 about 18.40 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum, and consumed3 about 18.12 MMb/d.


Image
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php
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