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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 19:11:09

DesuMaiden wrote:Fyi, the precise amount of oil reserves that are left is a tightly-guarded secret by the governments of the world. But based on the best statistics available, oil extraction already peaked in 2018.


Didn't matter much before, any reason you are worried about the most current peak? Let us say oil did peak again in 2018...has it bothered you much? Because most of the world doesn't seem to have noticed, and we've got the entire concept of peak demand being the primary driver of peak oil now, rather than any of the old scarcity fears.

DesuMaiden wrote: We just haven't felt the effects of peak oil yet because of the covid-19 pandemic temporarily reducing demand. But once the demand for oil goes up after the pandemic is over, the demand will outstrip supply.


And then we'll discover that 2018 was just another peak oil along the way. Like all the others claimed since the modern peak oil movement began in 1990.

DesuMaiden wrote: Thus leading to shortages.


Never happened all the other times. But recycling 30 year old ideas and arriving at the conclusion none of the others caused seems a bit counterintuitive.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 08:21:14

DesuMaiden wrote:Fyi....


That is all bullshit and idle speculation
Give one piece of evidence or take it to some other thread, this one is mine and I'd like to keep it at least a little real.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 Oct 2021, 11:08:08

So last December I guessed:
Pops wrote:... If 2021 looks like EIA/IEA forecast oil might get to $$80. People won't notice much.

That happened. Oil in storage at Cushing is down 40% —although not as low as '14 or '18. If it gets that low and stays there price will go up the limit, say $125+ The last couple of reports show a build. In related news, Saudi America is exporting the last of the endowment ASAP, net oil & finished product trade was about zero for the first time. woo-hoo

Lots of fossil news, not just oil but gas & coal as well. All of it about less, not more. All of it pointing anywhere but supply. The scamdemic, weather, truck drivers, supply chain, low capital investment, GND, new-found "discipline" in the shales, investors abandoning "The Patch" and of course the greenies pressuring Big Oil—which, as we all know, are so, so concerned about their image, LOL

The Economist says "The age of fossil-fuel abundance is dead" Essentially low investment is killing fossils.

Even though rigs are still about half of 2019, the reason for the build in storage (and apparent driller "discipline") is all the DUCs being completed.

Image

Which of course is a one time phenom financed by all the investors' losing bets over the last 10 years.

Dennis makes the best case that shale and oil in general has a few more years to run before a peak. His model is based on various estimates of recoverable oil, which is as good as any I guess. Lots of fog at this point, the news is all over the place but none of it seems very good.

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts “a season of shivers” ...
.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Oct 2021, 12:31:55

Pops wrote:The Economist says "The age of fossil-fuel abundance is dead" Essentially low investment is killing fossils.


You don't "kill" fossil fuels, you leave them in the ground. Guess what happens when the investment environment changes? There they are...sitting around...waiting. No different to the peak demand claim, something other than current demand or scarcity is causing folks to not use fossil fuels. A good thing by the way, but peak oilers object to the peak demand concept pretty heavily.

Pops wrote:Even though rigs are still about half of 2019, the reason for the build in storage (and apparent driller "discipline") is all the DUCs being completed.


There is some excellent information available on the rate of DUCs being taken off the board, other than the EIA stuff. I found some excellent analysis provided by some counting frack crews, and then calculating how many crews you need per working rig, and realizing that there were way too many operating for awhile, compared to rigs. An indirect qualitative indication of more completions being done than only newly drilled wells could supply.

And the DUCs being completed probably weren't a decade old, more likely leftovers from the 2020 Covid effect.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 Oct 2021, 16:37:39

And the EIA isn't buying "peak Demand" either.

Image

IF CURRENT POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS CONTINUE, GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 2050 AS A RESULT OF POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source in the Reference case, but renewable energy use grows to nearly the same level.

Across all cases, end-use sectors in non-OECD countries drive the return of global energy use to pre-pandemic levels.

By 2050, global energy use in the Reference case increases nearly 50% compared with 2020—mostly a result of non-OECD economic growth and population, particularly in Asia.

In the Reference case, global emissions rise throughout the projection period, although slowed by regional policies, renewable growth, and increasing energy efficiency.

RENEWABLES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR NEW ELECTRICITY GENERATION, BUT NATURAL GAS, COAL, AND INCREASINGLY BATTERIES WILL BE USED TO HELP MEET LOAD AND SUPPORT GRID RELIABILITY
Increases in electricity generation are primarily from renewable generation sources.

World coal-fired generation declines through 2030 in the Reference case, but it remains a significant part of the worldwide generation mix.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the global electric power sector remain stable despite significant growth in electricity demand.

OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, MAINLY TO SUPPORT INCREASING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN DEVELOPING ASIAN ECONOMIES
Supply of petroleum and other liquids continues increasing in both OPEC and non-OPEC regions to meet growing world demand through 2050 across cases.

Non-OECD Asia lacks adequate production to meet growing demand; most of the crude oil it uses comes from the Middle East.

Natural gas production increases worldwide to help satisfy key demand markets.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Oct 2021, 17:12:45

Pops wrote:And the EIA isn't buying "peak Demand" either.

Image


Well, now that is a significant data point. Did you see the real time release this morning with CSIS? They have all kinds of open to the public video interview/government results release events. I remember a good one talking about decelerating peak oil demand at least 2 or 3 years back now. They didn't come out and began peak demand, but they walked up to the edge. EIA is the only organization/group/person I am aware of that made a peak oil call back in the good ol' days that hasn't since been discredited by new oil production. Unfortunately, the results they released this morning didn't reflect that analysis. They look to be more bullish than their own work previously indicated.

One of the more disconcerting statements they made was something like "in all cases" (low price, reference, high price) crude oil and liquids demand is expected to be higher in the future than the past"....which was like a wow-zer. They are saying that not even low oil prices through 2050 can hold back a continuing flood of oil.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 10:25:57

Pops wrote:And the EIA isn't buying "peak Demand" either.

Image

IF CURRENT POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS CONTINUE, GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 2050 AS A RESULT OF POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source in the Reference case, but renewable energy use grows to nearly the same level.

Across all cases, end-use sectors in non-OECD countries drive the return of global energy use to pre-pandemic levels.

By 2050, global energy use in the Reference case increases nearly 50% compared with 2020—mostly a result of non-OECD economic growth and population, particularly in Asia.

Seems right in the short term (say to 2030 or 2035 or so), but given how much of the light vehicle fleet (and ICE fleet in general) will move to BEV before 2050, the linearality of the crude oil demand trend in the chart through 2050 looks bizarre to me.

Not how the crude oil slope for 2025 - 2050 is almost EXACTLY like that for natural gas.

Look, I know that global petrochemical use will likely continue to grow rapidly through 2050 and likely beyond. And perhaps asphalt, etc, given population growth and the third world moving to modern middle class living standards as a trend.

But unless BEV's literally "don't happen" as a big trend by 2050 (which seems nonsensical given cost trends, capacity trends, battery trends, BEV engineering trends, BEV investment, etc), just making the same linear demand growth case for 3 decades seems like just IGNORING what is happening in the world of clean energy.

Which is disappointing for the EIA. Despite all the whining from the usual suspects over time about how inaccurate they are about short term prices, long term they've done an EXCELLENT overall job of forecasting crude oil demand, given how volatile prices tend to be in the short term.

To me, both assuming that crude oil demand just continues to grow with the global GDP "forever", and the "super-green" assumptions that fossil fuels (and especially crude oil) just magically "goes away in a few years" (I'm paraphrasing), are COMPLETELY out of touch with scientific and economic reality.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 12:27:50

Not enough silver to convert ICU’s to EV’s. Couldn’t even convert 20% of them. We have been running a 300 million ounce silver deficit the past several years as demand increases and production decreases. This is according to the owner of the largest silver only miner in the world, Keith Nuemeyer .
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 12:45:28

Armageddon wrote:Not enough silver to convert ICU’s to EV’s. Couldn’t even convert 20% of them. We have been running a 300 million ounce silver deficit the past several years as demand increases and production decreases. This is according to the owner of the largest silver only miner in the world, Keith Nuemeyer .

No actual citation I see. Par for the course for you.

The market, with silver being mostly sideways recently, certainly doesn't indicate any sort of a real problem with insufficient silver.

Or long term. Ten years ago, silver was MUCH more expensive. 50 and 100 years ago, silver was close to the current price, using inflation adjusted dollars.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/histor ... year-chart

In the real world, the estimate for annual silver consumption for cars is estimated to rise a total of perhaps 30 million oz. a year. Silver can be recycled.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver- ... nces-2025/

Annual silver production in recent years has been over 25,000 metric tonnes.

A metric tonne has roughly 34,250 ounces. So ballpark global silver production is roughly 30 times the anticipated difference needed for EV's in 2025.

Gee, how will we ever survive? :roll:

And despite your usual nonsense re trying to portray instadoom, for electrical components, substitutes do exist, should the price of silver rise too much.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253 ... worldwide/

But do bleat on endlessly. I know you will, given your posting history.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 12:58:15

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Which is disappointing for the EIA. Despite all the whining from the usual suspects over time about how inaccurate they are about short term prices, long term they've done an EXCELLENT overall job of forecasting crude oil demand, given how volatile prices tend to be in the short term.

To me, both assuming that crude oil demand just continues to grow with the global GDP "forever", and the "super-green" assumptions that fossil fuels (and especially crude oil) just magically "goes away in a few years" (I'm paraphrasing), are COMPLETELY out of touch with scientific and economic reality.


During the presentation and discussion of these results the day it was released at CSIS, the EIA themselves said that it wasn't an integrated model, of note because that isn't what their documentation said the last time I was looking through it to pin down a question I had. One of the presenters even said that the price was exogenous to the model, and if both those statements are true, then it follows that GDP and population, assumed to be growing at a steady pace, is exactly what causes transportation fuels, petrochemicals and natural gas demand to increase in lockstep with it.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 13:31:03

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Which is disappointing for the EIA. Despite all the whining from the usual suspects over time about how inaccurate they are about short term prices, long term they've done an EXCELLENT overall job of forecasting crude oil demand, given how volatile prices tend to be in the short term.

To me, both assuming that crude oil demand just continues to grow with the global GDP "forever", and the "super-green" assumptions that fossil fuels (and especially crude oil) just magically "goes away in a few years" (I'm paraphrasing), are COMPLETELY out of touch with scientific and economic reality.


During the presentation and discussion of these results the day it was released at CSIS, the EIA themselves said that it wasn't an integrated model, of note because that isn't what their documentation said the last time I was looking through it to pin down a question I had. One of the presenters even said that the price was exogenous to the model, and if both those statements are true, then it follows that GDP and population, assumed to be growing at a steady pace, is exactly what causes transportation fuels, petrochemicals and natural gas demand to increase in lockstep with it.

So at the risk of asking a stupid question, are we talking about Jevon's paradox (or a similar issue re "consuming all we have as cheaply as we can") here? In other words, that the oil will be used as the GDP grows, REGARDLESS of ways to use less of it being developed, like green energy and green products?

(And yes, I'm well aware that historically that the correlation between global crude oil demand growth and global GDP growth is very high over time.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 13:53:56

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So at the risk of asking a stupid question, are we talking about Jevon's paradox (or a similar issue re "consuming all we have as cheaply as we can") here? In other words, that the oil will be used as the GDP grows, REGARDLESS of ways to use less of it being developed, like green energy and green products?


Based on the tables of answers provided after the release, I imagine we could find out? Compare consumption of this and that over time? But the table outputs are voluminous, to say the least. I haven't tried to do this myself, although I have used some of their oil and gas outputs just as a reference before in graphs. Similar to the ones Pops already posted from the EIA themselves.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:(And yes, I'm well aware that historically that the correlation between global crude oil demand growth and global GDP growth is very high over time.)


Indeed. And I continue to wait to see it NOT correlate anymore within results from substantial models like the one the EIA uses, as compared to the organizations that tend to do more back of the envelope type stuff.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 14:01:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Not enough silver to convert ICU’s to EV’s. Couldn’t even convert 20% of them. We have been running a 300 million ounce silver deficit the past several years as demand increases and production decreases. This is according to the owner of the largest silver only miner in the world, Keith Nuemeyer .

No actual citation I see. Par for the course for you.

The market, with silver being mostly sideways recently, certainly doesn't indicate any sort of a real problem with insufficient silver.

Or long term. Ten years ago, silver was MUCH more expensive. 50 and 100 years ago, silver was close to the current price, using inflation adjusted dollars.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/histor ... year-chart

In the real world, the estimate for annual silver consumption for cars is estimated to rise a total of perhaps 30 million oz. a year. Silver can be recycled.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver- ... nces-2025/

Annual silver production in recent years has been over 25,000 metric tonnes.

A metric tonne has roughly 34,250 ounces. So ballpark global silver production is roughly 30 times the anticipated difference needed for EV's in 2025.

Gee, how will we ever survive? :roll:

And despite your usual nonsense re trying to portray instadoom, for electrical components, substitutes do exist, should the price of silver rise too much.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/253 ... worldwide/

But do bleat on endlessly. I know you will, given your posting history.




Let the owner of the worlds largest silver only mine explains it to you since you have no idea what you’re talking about.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IX-vIlIx5bc
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 15:53:43

Armageddon wrote:Let the owner of the worlds largest silver only mine explains it to you since you have no idea what you’re talking about.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IX-vIlIx5bc


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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 17:19:14

These idiots on here know more than the owner of the largest silver miner in the world.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 19:10:03

Armageddon wrote:These idiots on here know more than the owner of the largest silver miner in the world.


owner of the largest silver mine in the world wrote:1. KGHM Mining Hub, Poland. 39.2 Moz.
KGHM Polska Miedz’ Mining Hub consists of Rudna, Polkowice-Sieroszowice and Lubin primary copper mines located in Poland. In addition to copper, it is also an important source of silver, gold and other metals. With 39.2 Moz of silver mined in 2020, KGHM Polska Miedz is the largest silver producing operation worldwide. English Company Webpage

President of the Management Board-Marcin Chludziński


Sir, I served with Marcin Chludzinski. I knew Marcin Chludzinski. Marcin Chludzinski was a friend of mine. Keith Neumeyer, you are no Marcin Chludzinski. :mrgreen:
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Oct 2021, 20:36:43

Neumeyer produces all the current data in his interviews and belongs to the organization that produces the data. GTFO of here with your nonsense.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Oct 2021, 11:43:22

Updated data alert!! KDHM Polska Miedz bumped off as world's largest silver miner by Fresnillo!!!

CEO: Octavio Alvidrez.

Keith Neumeyer....BoobTube Star of Silver....despair....

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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Oct 2021, 13:56:31

AdamB wrote:Updated data alert!! KDHM Polska Miedz bumped off as world's largest silver miner by Fresnillo!!!

CEO: Octavio Alvidrez.

Keith Neumeyer....BoobTube Star of Silver....despair....

Image




Did you not read it correctly? He’s the worlds largest silver only miner.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Oct 2021, 16:52:02

Armageddon wrote:Did you not read it correctly? He’s the worlds largest silver only miner.


Him Who Understands Carnival Barker Words Of Pimp For Midget Silver Miner wrote:
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