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Peak Oil 2020/2021

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 15:34:59

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Well, I was doing it during the mid-80's through the mid-90's. .


What about the rest of the world? Do they use all this advanced recovery stuff?


Hydraulic fracturing is nothing new, and isn't really an advanced recovery technique. I was taught completion engineering from engineers who had been doing it for decades, same as I was taught how to drill horizontal wells by folks that pre-dated early MWD systems. Advanced recovery in the form of secondary/tertiary recovery of discrete reservoirs is entirely something else, and is based on engineering expertise (of which there is plenty) and being able to afford it. It has also been around for a long time,, with steady improvements as computer power, scientific research, and data have all come together to get every last ounce of oil out of a field. Reserve growth, writ large.

mousepad wrote:
If they don't, is there any reason to believe they won't?


Nope. If the demand is there, and the price is right (which can include the need not just for costs of extraction but bribes to locals, logistics to get seaborne, building the roads to get there and whatever else comes up in (potentially) the middle of nowhere), it'll get done some day.

The key being, for a given price, can you convert the world over to something else, rather than spending $200/bbl to get some extra oil out.

I purchased my first EV when gasoline in the US was $4/gal or so, that was enough to push me over the edge.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 15:36:12

AdamB wrote:then you are beginning to understand what it takes to feed working drilling rigs at scale


Is this fracking a lot different from traditional drilling? Regarding supply chain and know how and operations?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 15:44:57

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:then you are beginning to understand what it takes to feed working drilling rigs at scale


Is this fracking a lot different from traditional drilling?


Fracking isn't drilling. Fracking is a completion technique, done after all the drilling is completed.

mousepad wrote:Regarding supply chain and know how and operations?


Moving and operating drilling rigs is slightly different than just doing completions, both involve plenty of supply chain/logistic operations. I am aware of some real smart ex-military guys who are involved in some of these operations. Just getting through a light town in Appalachia with 100 semi-loads of rig pieces can be its own operation, let alone building a completion site on a hillside.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:31:00

mousepad wrote:Is this fracking a lot different from traditional drilling?

Traditional is make a hole straight down and hope you hit a bubble of oil, under pressure, ready to squirt—my grandpa did this in 1920. He probably "fracked" too, he used a stick of dynamite.

Fracking for tight oil starts with directional drilling, improvements here have been they key as I understand because you can't do fracking without precision drilling. Drill down some thousands of feet as above but then, turn right and following a layer maybe only a few feet thick for thousands of feet horizontally, more or less, maybe branching off for thousands more. I think this is amazing

The fracking part is pumping fluids down the well under huge pressure, the fluids exits through holes in the casing to fracture the surrounding rock.

The rock is a is a super fine sedimentary rock that trapped plankton and dinosaurs and cavemen and is where the oil was formed. Most oil escaped and migrated toward the surface with some getting stuck midway up under impervious layers of rock. Those are the reservoirs as in traditional drilling above. What is left over in that source rock is trapped there because the rock, being made from fine sediments has such a tight grain there is no pore space for the remaining oil to escape. The fracking fluid makes fractures radiating out from the well in that rock. Along with the fluid is sand or something similar to prop the cracks open. Voilá, a gusherette.

The big problem is, the area the well drains is only as big as the area surrounding the new fractures. I don't know how far out that area is but it drains fast. Like tar sands mining and washing, fracking is more of a manufacturing process than the traditional "prospecting" of drilling an exploratory well and hoping it comes in or drilling a well in an known area and hoping to get a little of the bubble. They know where the source rock is, they probably have a good idea how much is there, it's just a matter of getting it up at a profit.

Note: I'm no expert. That might all be wrong.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:39:28

AdamB wrote:Fracking isn't drilling. Fracking is a completion technique, done after all the drilling is completed.

Ok, so fracking is an additional step you do. Does that mean if you don't do fracking, you are done after drilling? Or is there another completion technique instead of fracking that needs to be done?

Nope. If the demand is there, and the price is right (which can include the need not just for costs of extraction but bribes to locals, logistics to get seaborne, building the roads to get there and whatever else comes up in (potentially) the middle of nowhere), it'll get done some day.


So if we take pemex as an example. Is it a big hurdle for them to do fracking? I remotely remember reading that the tx fields extend into mexico. I also seem to recall that mexico is currently struggling to maintain their output. Don't they have every incentive to use new techniques? What's holding them back?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:47:32

Pops wrote:Look at POB, Ron has lots of charts up right now.

Sorry, had that page bookmarked, it's from a year ago. not right now.
This one is from right now but not materially different in the context here.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:52:20

Pops wrote: turn right and following a layer maybe only a few feet thick for thousands of feet horizontally, more or less, maybe branching off for thousands more. I think this is amazing
.


Yes, that's something that impresses me, too. The ability to control the direction of the drill and keeping
it on track for 1000s of ft is amazing. Me on the other hand can hardly drill a straight hole with my power drill. :-)
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 16:53:10

For clarity:

Shales and siltstones which are the main reservoirs in unconventional have very high porosity what they do not have is high permeability (the interconnection between pores which governs flow). Fracking is meant to increase permeability which allows pore space storage to drain at higher rates.

A frack is created by increasing pore fluid pressure to that which is above the failure rate for a particular reservoir. That means pumping at pressure higher than the normal pressure at depth (about 0.5 psi/foot of burial) and high enough to create failure. The problem is that those fractures will collapse immediately once the pore fluid pressure drops off so at the same time a mixture of sand and benign chemicals are injected in order to prop open the fracture. The average length of a fully propagated induced fracture is usually 100 to 150 m away from the well bore meaning there is a 200 - 300 m diameter around individual wells that represents drainage. That being said that drainage goes the length of the horizontal section which can be numerous km in length.

It is a business that counts on cost management which is done through supply chain adjustments and improved technology. Infill drilling is done so as to maximize sweep while minimizing well to well interactions which can hurt overall production.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 17:04:46

Thanks for fixing that doc.

I didn't realize the drainage area was that large.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 17:45:31

Pops wrote:
mousepad wrote:Is this fracking a lot different from traditional drilling?

Traditional is make a hole straight down and hope you hit a bubble of oil, under pressure, ready to squirt—my grandpa did this in 1920. He probably "fracked" too, he used a stick of dynamite.


Traditional is in the eye of the beholder. Conventional drilling involves a rig, and drilling. Sometimes vertical, sometimes directionally, sometimes horizontally. Folks tend to differentiate between hole types, for some reason. To them horizontal drilling, because it has only been going on for nearly a century (excluding shallow horizontals hilljacks in Ohio were doing before 1900), is something new and exciting? Dunno. Unconventional oil is basically Canada tar sand mining, most everything else oil and gas wise involves run of the mill drilling wells. Even SAGD Canadian tar sands development involves drilling. I've never drilled a vertical well in my life, so drilling shallow vertical wells is like driving a Model T or something I suppose.

And torpedoing a well usually involved liquid nitroglycerine. The first patents for that kind of "fracking" took place right near the end of the Civil War, if memory serves.

Pops wrote:Fracking for tight oil starts with directional drilling, improvements here have been they key as I understand because you can't do fracking without precision drilling.


I've done multi-stage slickwater fracturing in vertical wells. No horizontal drilling required. Precision in drilling horizontally matters, in that you certainly don't want to complete out of formation, but that isn't difficult with modern MWD systems.

Pops wrote:
The big problem is, the area the well drains is only as big as the area surrounding the new fractures. I don't know how far out that area is but it drains fast.


Shale completions I did in the 80's are still producing today. Occasionally I'll check on them through the commercial production database providers just to see how they are doing. Call it professional pride. The decline profile is certainly steeper at first than later.

Pops wrote:Note: I'm no expert. That might all be wrong.


Close enough.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Feb 2021, 17:56:38

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:Fracking isn't drilling. Fracking is a completion technique, done after all the drilling is completed.

Ok, so fracking is an additional step you do.


A completion is an additional step you do when drilling is completed. Hydraulic fracturing is just one possible completion type. Popular as of late in the US.

mousepad wrote: Does that mean if you don't do fracking, you are done after drilling?


If you don't complete a well, you have a 5000' deep fencepost hole. Usually. Sometimes, in a shale, you get lucky and hit a natural fracture and you begun production operations without a completion. In a 1000 well production company, I had maybe 4 or 5 shale wells like that. The rest were fractured with slick water, some with CO2. Completions are often needed to get past the skin damage of drilling (sometimes hydrochloric acid is all that is required), and to change the radius of investigation of the pressure pulse you are about to induce on the reservoir. Completions with proppant allow that differential pressure to touch far more rock than just what little would normally intersect the wellbore.

mousepad wrote:Or is there another completion technique instead of fracking that needs to be done?


There are plenty of other types. Hydraulic fracturing is currently the most popular, because of the kinds of wells being drilled. Those wells are into low permeability formations, and that is where hydraulic fracturing does a great job increasing cross sectional flow area.


mousepad wrote:So if we take pemex as an example. Is it a big hurdle for them to do fracking?


Based on the Pemex engineers I've worked with and talked to, they are fully capable of doing hydraulic fracturing of the same kind done in the States.

mousepad wrote:I remotely remember reading that the tx fields extend into mexico. I also seem to recall that mexico is currently struggling to maintain their output. Don't they have every incentive to use new techniques? What's holding them back?


The old drag racing adage. Which is as follows: Speed costs money. How fast would you like to go?

When you need every dime to keep your general fund afloat, every dollar you remove from it hurts. Given time, lack of investment, and no change in political inclinations, the result can easily end up being...Venezuela.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 11:25:20

AdamB wrote:
The old drag racing adage. Which is as follows: Speed costs money. How fast would you like to go?

When you need every dime to keep your general fund afloat, every dollar you remove from it hurts. Given time, lack of investment, and no change in political inclinations, the result can easily end up being...Venezuela.


Yes, but how much money does finishing a well using fracking cost? Does it add 10%, 100%, 1000% to the cost?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 11:54:11

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:
The old drag racing adage. Which is as follows: Speed costs money. How fast would you like to go?

When you need every dime to keep your general fund afloat, every dollar you remove from it hurts. Given time, lack of investment, and no change in political inclinations, the result can easily end up being...Venezuela.


Yes, but how much money does finishing a well using fracking cost? Does it add 10%, 100%, 1000% to the cost?


Depends on depth, and where in the US you are drilling. For a modern hydraulic completion on a mile long or longer lateral, you are probably looking at the completion being 25-50% of the total well cost.

The range being necessary because of the range of well types, and combinations. Per well costs are less if you can do a pad rather than a well. Per well costs can be dropped using less sand, less complex fluid chemisty, fewer stages, more stages, etc etc. But 25-50% covers a fair number of these scenarios.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Pops » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 12:03:00

mousepad wrote:Yes, but how much money does finishing a well using fracking cost? Does it add 10%, 100%, 1000% to the cost?

I don't know that specific answer but the more important question isn't how much per well but how much per barrel.

When you're in the middle of a juicy region it may be the completion pays for itself and then some, because you get additional barrels: cost per barrel is low, life is good, buy new boots.

But off to the side, where the rock isn't so good, that $10million doesn't bring up enough extra to pay, cost per barrel is higher than the going price, Bad Dog No Biscuit
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 12:13:36

AdamB wrote: But 25-50% covers a fair number of these scenarios.


That doesn't seem that much. Considering all other expenses of operating a finished well it seems to me that the added cost of fracking only marginally increases the cost of the oil produced.
Or is it that those fracked wells deplete much faster and therefore for the same amount of oil produced a much larger number of wells are needed? Is that the defining factor in the cost of fracked oil?

Back to my original question regarding pemex. You mentioned they have the engineering know-how to use fracking. The close proximity to tx oil fields I would imagine that getting the specialized equipment wouldn't be that big of a deal for pemex.

So that only leaves lack of money as a reason. Out of a budget as large as pemex's, is drilling a significant expense? Could adding 50% to the cost of a well make or break the whole viability?
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 13:38:18

Pops wrote:
mousepad wrote:Yes, but how much money does finishing a well using fracking cost? Does it add 10%, 100%, 1000% to the cost?

I don't know that specific answer but the more important question isn't how much per well but how much per barrel.


Sure. When doing basic economic analysis on putting together forward looking estimates, everything is done on a $/bbl basis. Not just for completions obviously, but for all-in well costs. Drilling, completion, production volumes, operating costs at both the well, gathering system and interstate transport level (for natural gas), net revenue rather than gross. Well level expected volumes being the variable with the widest range of outcomes.

Pops wrote:But off to the side, where the rock isn't so good, that $10million doesn't bring up enough extra to pay, cost per barrel is higher than the going price.


Sure. The distribution that describes well level results always has a significant (and variable, depending on geology) sub-economic component. Always has. Always will.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Feb 2021, 13:48:21

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote: But 25-50% covers a fair number of these scenarios.


That doesn't seem that much.


It is certainly enough that cost cutters, managers, and every completion selling service company is trying to reduce it when they pitch the latest and greatest to the E&P.

mousepad wrote:Considering all other expenses of operating a finished well it seems to me that the added cost of fracking only marginally increases the cost of the oil produced.
Or is it that those fracked wells deplete much faster and therefore for the same amount of oil produced a much larger number of wells are needed? Is that the defining factor in the cost of fracked oil?


The defining factor, the main independent variable if you will, that defines the cost of oil coming from wells that have been completed using hydraulic fracturing, is the well performance. Price is always going to be price, and we all know that during the half century of well life we are going to get what we get, and the price is far beyond our control. I don't know what "fracked oil" is, the completion type having never designated the oil type in the history of the industry.

mousepad wrote:Back to my original question regarding pemex. You mentioned they have the engineering know-how to use fracking. The close proximity to tx oil fields I would imagine that getting the specialized equipment wouldn't be that big of a deal for pemex.


Pemex would have no technical difficulty getting the equipment or expertise (assuming they don't have it in-house) to do Eagleford-equivalent wells on their side of the border, in the same formation that is being developed in the US.

mousepad wrote:So that only leaves lack of money as a reason. Out of a budget as large as pemex's, is drilling a significant expense? Could adding 50% to the cost of a well make or break the whole viability?


Pemex's most significant expense is sending money to the federal government to feed people, pay bureaucrats, pretend to fight the drug cartels, etc etc.

If they stopped doing those things, they would have plenty of money to increase oil production. And they wouldn't do it by drilling Eagleford-equivalent wells along the Texas border. They would drill in the GOM.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 11:08:17

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote: But 25-50% covers a fair number of these scenarios.


That doesn't seem that much. Considering all other expenses of operating a finished well it seems to me that the added cost of fracking only marginally increases the cost of the oil produced.

Or is it that those fracked wells deplete much faster and therefore for the same amount of oil produced a much larger number of wells are needed? Is that the defining factor in the cost of fracked oil?


My understanding which may be very flawed is a fracked well produces at boom rates for the first 6 months, excellent rates for the 6-12 month period and okay rates for the 12-18 month period after which it slides into a stripper well production rate which may last decades. Producing 9.5 bbl/d when you started at producing 350 bbl/d 18 months earlier sounds pretty awful, but if that 9.5 bbl/d last 30-40 years that is a heck of a lot of accumulated production over the long run. The biggest problem with American companies, and this is not a new thought as I have said it for 30 years, is the quarterly business cycle dominates. In China, Korea, Japan, Germany the companies and/or government investment systems are based on total life cycle of whatever service or product you are talking about. In the USA if your whatever is not showing a profit every 90 days for two or three cycles you are out of a job no matter what external factors might have been influencing profitability.

Even our USA political class doesn't look beyond a two year horizon as that is the short election cycle and how the membership of the "house" changes on that cycle has a huge impact on political decision making.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 12:19:11

Tanada wrote:
mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote: But 25-50% covers a fair number of these scenarios.


That doesn't seem that much. Considering all other expenses of operating a finished well it seems to me that the added cost of fracking only marginally increases the cost of the oil produced.

Or is it that those fracked wells deplete much faster and therefore for the same amount of oil produced a much larger number of wells are needed? Is that the defining factor in the cost of fracked oil?


My understanding which may be very flawed is a fracked well produces at boom rates for the first 6 months, excellent rates for the 6-12 month period and okay rates for the 12-18 month period after which it slides into a stripper well production rate which may last decades.


Tight permeability wells (regardless of formation type), tend to exhibit a hyperbolic decline profile, which can be defined as a steep initial decline, followed by an ever shallowing decline until it reaches a static decline rate (although some can keep shallowing for a LONG time, to ever lower decline rates). This profile doesn't contain within it a requirement as to where the first point starts, and where it starts dictates when it becomes a stripper well. Most modern horizontal oil wells, completed in a shale formation, don't even make it to stripper well levels before the companies go back in and remediate things that didn't go as planned during the initial completion, and bring the production back up to a higher rate.

Based on OpX considerations on modern horizontal wells in tight formations, stripper well volumes (short of astronomical prices) are going to be marginal at best on these assets. Most companies that drill these wells aren't interested in becoming low volume, stripper well producers, and will sell out to mom and pops to move on to greener (larger volume) pastures. This way, they'll avoid the salvage costs. And the mom and pops will do what mom and pops do, which is produce the remaining dribs and drabs, for as many decades as they can afford to.
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Re: Peak Oil 2020/2021

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 18:42:39

Fyi, the precise amount of oil reserves that are left is a tightly-guarded secret by the governments of the world. But based on the best statistics available, oil extraction already peaked in 2018. We just haven't felt the effects of peak oil yet because of the covid-19 pandemic temporarily reducing demand. But once the demand for oil goes up after the pandemic is over, the demand will outstrip supply. Thus leading to shortages. And in a country as well-armed as the USA, a permanent shortage of oil will probably lead to widespread violence. And it will eventually lead to the supply chain breaking down. Thus stores will go unstocked of items. And then, they will be stripped bare. And once that happens, societal collapse will begin.
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