Nonsense wrote:1 in 12,045
So sometime in the next 30 years or so oil may peak.
Unless some new development alters the odds. That's a pretty slim bet if you ask me. What were the odds in 1902 that a man would walk on the surface of the moon 40 years later? Nada zippo none.
Because things we don't know we don't know, will greatly affect the outcome, I don't see much value in predicting what is essentially a random event which by definition defies prediction.
The accuracy of any prediction decays over time until it becomes mere speculation.
In the case of peak oil there are simply too many factors to be anything more than a semi-educated guess.
Nonsense I think you are talking nonsense (i know someone had to say it eventually
)
Lets do the yes no game - boring but will save a few pages:
Are we all agreed that sometime between now and 2040 conventional peak oil production will peak? yes or No
Bearing in mind even the "anti" PO chaps are saying 2040 i assume you have said yes.
Are we therefore agreed that the occurance of PO is not a prediction of IF it will occur as set out in your post but a fact it will occur we are simply discussing only WHEN it will occur Yes or No
Bearing in mind that if you are this far you have acknowledgeed PO will occur sometime between now and 2040 the second statement is by definition correct
Turning now to when as each day passes the chance of it occuring the next day increases - to take the extreme two days before the end of 2040 the chances of it happening that day are 50:50. so in actual fact because we have a set end time for PO to happen - as set out by the oil companies etc themselves the probability of PO happening increases each day Yes or No
Then are we agreed that that in order to avoid all of the "we're all doomed" nonsense (on pun intended...) the sooner we begin the transition eg by buying near technology (even if it costs a lot) etc to encourage its development the better we will all be. i.e. even if its in 2040 starting now would minimise the cost. yes or No
If you have said yes to all of the above you are now in the same camp as me which is - it actually doesnt matter when it is going to happen far better to very calmly in a grace under pressure type way start moving to some new technology level to minimise my exposure and with the secondary effects of freeing up some non-renewable energy for other people (arguably not the best thing but there you go), reducing CO2 emissions, minimising futrue energy costs etc
go on Nonsense come join us Optimistic Peak Oilers!
love and kisses
Smudger
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