[PraiseDoom]

Actually PStarr, I'm not disagreeing with your chart but drawing conclusions based on extrapolation, is actually not scientific.

You can say extrapolating into the future in this way is reasonable, logical and intuitively appealing but you can't claim it's scientific, in the traditional meaning of the word.

Since when does science have anything to do with Doom? We all know the drill, here comes Peak, peak arrives, now we're sliding down the slope of the gorge, its been foretold for decades now.

Scientific...please....you imply that belief isn't enough? See enough of these... and you just KNOW they are going to bring down civilization.

[threadbear]

If something crawls out of your butthole and sings the national anthem, don't call it anything, particularly not "science", or you could end up pissing it off in more ways than one.

[PraiseDoom]

threadbare, Praisedoom I don't believe you two would recognize science if it crawled out of your butthole and sang the National Anthem.

And this matters HOW in the post peak world we now find ourselves in?

Seems to me other things are much more important.

[threadbear]

In the broadest sense, science (from the Latin scientia, 'knowledge') refers to any systematic methodology which attempts to collect accurate information about the shared reality and to model this in a way which can be used to make reliable, concrete and quantitative predictions about events, past, present, and future, in line with observations.

In the broadest sense, science can incoporate extrapolations when forming "predictions". It certainly falls short of anything like a experimental science that must produce clear reproducable results and conclusions.

I don't mean to nitpick--but you actually bring up a good point. Modelling for the sake of prediction is used in meterology all of the time, and we expect the models to fail quite regularly because weather is difficult to predict, due to it's chaotic nature, (even with very advanced modelling systems)-- Just as the linear supply /demand models extrapolating into the future, take place in a chaotic system, called life, that limit their reliability.

Gasoline at much over 5.00 per gallon should start to radically alter patterns of consumption and therefore render the extrapolations from supply/demand charts obsolete. But that is in keeping with linear models in a chaotic system. And people, politics, crime, war, and all of those other things we call life are chaotic, if nothing else.

[threadbear]

There, I said it Goddammit! I said it....

[aldente]

But some of you write as if you already know what will happen... like this Montequest character.

Yes, Monte is a one of his kind extracted mental ratio, a form of concentrated intelligence. Please respect his input more before you judge, however. I assume you read about three of his posts so far.
Keep in mind however:
You are not excluded from the implications of Peak Oil just by stating an opinion on the subject matter !
The underlaying logic of PO after all is not all that hard to understand and certainly does not require knowledge in theoretical physics and the Higgs particle - common sense is entirely sufficient!
http://uk.geocities.com/citizen_higgs/russellhiggs-1.jpg

[waegari]

How much money does this peak thing make anyway?
Surely you can find a better way to scare people for profit.

As we do not have membership fees, it seems hard to make a profit out of PO.com.
Staff members are all volunteers.

Getting your basic facts right is where all science starts.

[PraiseDoom]

How much money does this peak thing make anyway?
Surely you can find a better way to scare people for profit.

As we do not have membership fees, it seems hard to make a profit out of PO.com.
Staff members are all volunteers.

Getting your basic facts right is where all science starts.

Again, last I looked science has nothing to do with the dogma of Doom. Lets just all pray a little harder, collect some more ammo, maybe another rifle, and wait for the zombies to arrive.

[Doly]

Again, last I looked science has nothing to do with the dogma of Doom. Lets just all pray a little harder, collect some more ammo, maybe another rifle, and wait for the zombies to arrive.

Let's not confuse peaker with doomer. There are peaker doomers, for sure, but a lot of people that believe peak oil is happening soon aren't in favour of collecting ammo and expecting Mad Max.

[waegari]

How much money does this peak thing make anyway?
Surely you can find a better way to scare people for profit.

As we do not have membership fees, it seems hard to make a profit out of PO.com.
Staff members are all volunteers.

Getting your basic facts right is where all science starts.

Again, last I looked science has nothing to do with the dogma of Doom. Lets just all pray a little harder, collect some more ammo, maybe another rifle, and wait for the zombies to arrive.

Last I looked my post does in no way refer to Doom.

Last I looked I live in a country where guns are not freely available. Thank Heaven for that.

[Nonsense]

Look I'm not saying that peak oil won't ever happen. It obviously will. I'm just pointing out that there are way too many unknowns to predict a date for peak oil to any degree of accuracy.

If so & so is lying, if reserve growth fails to materialize for specific regions, if new technologies don't deliver as promised, if if if if.

You must get my point, it's pretty basic reasoning.

Too many "ifs" to give any real clarity.

Didn't that banker guy (Simon?) say peak oil was only recognizable in retrospect or something like that? If that's true, then what value do predictions about some future peak event really have?

You won't know for sure till way later, & then it's too late right?

I predict a massive asteroid impact will wipe out humanity soon. What are the chances of that happening? I don't know, it's too complicated to make a prediction.

Just like peak oil.

(Pulls flame retardant pajamas over head - which of course can be either flame-retardant or non-carcinogenic, but not both)

[MonteQuest]

Gasoline at much over 5.00 per gallon should start to radically alter patterns of consumption and therefore render the extrapolations from supply/demand charts obsolete.

Evidence to support this claim?

[Smudger]

Look I'm not saying that peak oil won't ever happen. It obviously will. I'm just pointing out that there are way too many unknowns to predict a date for peak oil to any degree of accuracy.

If so & so is lying, if reserve growth fails to materialize for specific regions, if new technologies don't deliver as promised, if if if if.

You must get my point, it's pretty basic reasoning.

Too many "ifs" to give any real clarity.

Didn't that banker guy (Simon?) say peak oil was only recognizable in retrospect or something like that? If that's true, then what value do predictions about some future peak event really have?

You won't know for sure till way later, & then it's too late right?

I predict a massive asteroid impact will wipe out humanity soon. What are the chances of that happening? I don't know, it's too complicated to make a prediction.

Just like peak oil.

(Pulls flame retardant pajamas over head - which of course can be either flame-retardant or non-carcinogenic, but not both)

I dont think the analogy works. for an asteriod collison we know the odds are c. 1 in 14 million of it happening on any given day. There is also an albeit underfunded asteorid search project which will eventually map the skies. So to my mind to the best that is economically/morally right we are doing what we should be doing.

I think the issue with PO is that even if you take the whole breadth of the chances of it happening between now and 2040 you have c. a 1 in 12,045 chance of it happening on any given day (and reducing per day by the way) - ignoring the statomen who will query the absolute correctness of the analysis yes yes I know- the risk of PO happening is 1) much greater by a factor of nearly 1,200 and so must be taken much more seriously 2) most people are agreed that you need c 20 years to prepare for PO without it causing a real problem...which means you need to half the odds again

The up shot being that almost illogically we have a fairly ok strategy for the potential of an asteroid hitting us but little overt preparation for PO which absolutely will happen in most peoples lifetime.

Think of it like the stock market and randon walk theory. It is nearly impossible to pick the turning of a stock/market but it is possible to see a trend i.e. real estate is overvalued and begin shifting out of it. As E Rothschild said in response to why he has such a good investment record "i sell too early"

In terms of PO we should be "preparing too early" rather than revving right up and past the peak

[waegari]

I predict a massive asteroid impact will wipe out humanity soon. What are the chances of that happening? I don't know, it's too complicated to make a prediction.

Just like peak oil.

The problem is: you make it appear as if PO.com endorses one specific point in time where peak oil will happen or already has happened. That is not the case. All this website does is offering an opportunity to discuss all possible ramifications of a phenomenon that is bound to happen or bound to already have happened.
It is bound to happen (or already have happened) because oil is a finite resource and there are some indications (putting it mildly) that the peak might well be close.

A massive asteroid impact from your argument can be predicted if indeed it would be discovered that some asteroid were on its way to planet earth. From that point onward predictions about time frame et cetera become scientifically valid. As of now it is just something that <i>might</i> or might not happen some day in the future.

Now, the difference between a possible asteroid impact and peak oil lies in the possibility of the 'might not'. There is no way in which peak oil may not happen. But what happens as soon as it does is still open to discussion. And that discussion, once again, is what PO.com is about.

[Nonsense]

1 in 12,045

So sometime in the next 30 years or so oil may peak.

Unless some new development alters the odds. That's a pretty slim bet if you ask me. What were the odds in 1902 that a man would walk on the surface of the moon 40 years later? Nada zippo none.

Because things we don't know we don't know, will greatly affect the outcome, I don't see much value in predicting what is essentially a random event which by definition defies prediction.

The accuracy of any prediction decays over time until it becomes mere speculation.

In the case of peak oil there are simply too many factors to be anything more than a semi-educated guess.

[Nonsense]

A massive asteroid impact from your argument can be predicted if indeed it would be discovered that some asteroid were on its way to planet earth. From that point onward predictions about time frame et cetera become scientifically valid. As of now it is just something that might or might not happen some day in the future.

A quick glance at our moon tells me that asteroid impacts do happen, frequently. It's perfectly valid for me to speculate that another one will eventually strike the Earth.

What I can't say with any certainty is when.

Just like Peak Oil.

[waegari]

1 in 12,045

So sometime in the next 30 years or so oil may peak.

Unless some new development alters the odds. That's a pretty slim bet if you ask me. What were the odds in 1902 that a man would walk on the surface of the moon 40 years later? Nada zippo none.

Funny you would mention 1902: that is the year in which Georges Melies released his film A Trip to the Moon, based on Jules Verne.
In those days the technological age had only just started to discuss its range of far out possibilities, and it seems some folks were already considering the odds to be a little better than just Nada zippo none.

Something else would be the completely different impact on humanity as a whole, if you get your odds wrong, when it comes to peak oil as compared to moon travel. Peak oil, whenever it happens, will affect all people on this planet, so it seems quite wise to be aware of even the bleakest possible prospects: a matter of ethics, not just logic.

That's also what PO.com is about.