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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 20:28:56

Right. Also note that of all the things humans do that alters the background radiation level, the most cumulative impact comes from burning mildly radioactive coal. Among the worst coals to burn come from West Virginia mines, which is an area where Radon accumulates in houses from slow seepage from the Earth beneath the homes.

Above ground nuclear testing was banned decades ago, and atmospheric radioactive isotopes from then have declined considerably - then got bumped up by Chernobyl, and now are declining again.

But still, I have a vivid memory of being warned at age 12 not to eat the snow that contained Strontium 90 fallout. But again, bombs and commercial nuclear power are different topics.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 00:09:01

You 're right. I was a victim of FUD :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_radiation

"The increase in background radiation due to these tests peaked in 1963 at about 0.15 mSv per year worldwide, or about 7% of average background dose from all sources"

I probably remembered that backwards, I do that :)
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A new analysis says global demand for oil will peak by 2030

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 00:33:22


The global demand for crude oil will peak in 2030 as electric vehicles continue to chip away at the market for gasoline-powered cars and trucks. So say analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who predict that EVs will grow to 40 percent of new-car sales worldwide over the next 12 years. “Electric vehicles will likely start to erode this last major bastion of oil demand growth in the early 2020s and cause global oil demand to peak by 2030,” the analysts wrote in an emailed research note, according to Bloomberg. The new analysis is a more aggressive outlook than that of other experts, including the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC, all of which don't see the demand for oil starting to decline until 2040. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden has said oil could peak as soon as the late 2020s or early ..


A new analysis says global demand for oil will peak by 2030
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 09:39:04

I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.

Let’s say we are at 95% of peak today.
At 2030 we are at 100%.
At 2050 we are at 90%.

What is peak PRODUCTION?
Let’s say we are at 100% today.
At 2030 we are at 95%
At 2050 we are at 80%

The question is not total demand, but what fraction of demand that can be met by production. If production falls below demand price will skyrocket.

Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 09:47:49

Newfie wrote:I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.

Let’s say we are at 95% of peak today.
At 2030 we are at 100%.
At 2050 we are at 90%.

What is peak PRODUCTION?
Let’s say we are at 100% today.
At 2030 we are at 95%
At 2050 we are at 80%

The question is not total demand, but what fraction of demand that can be met by production. If production falls below demand price will skyrocket.

Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.

Your 2050 numbers should also match as price will already have gone up and reduced demand to the available supply. The shortfall in supply will have increased demand for alternatives but there is no guarantee that sufficient alternatives can be found or produced in sufficient quantities.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 17:42:15

Newfie wrote:I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.


There isn't much, other than from peak oilers (who are cheesed that there is plenty of supply available) and those heavily invested in E&Ps I suppose, who don't like the idea of an eternal cutthroat race to the bottom in terms of stock and commodity prices.


Newfie wrote:Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.


Sure. And a century after that humans will be yucking it up like we do nowadays about supply and demand for whale oil. Haven't heard of all those problems caused by lack of supply and demand for whale oil nowadays? See what I mean.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 18:09:56

The easiest way to attain peak demand for oil is to levy large carbon taxes on FF to make oil so expensive that people will have no choice but to switch to another fuel.

The easiest way to get a big carbon tax is to first institute a small carbon tax and then ratchet it up over time.

AND It should be easy to institute a small carbon tax because even the oil companies now say they want a carbon tax.

why-big-oil-wants-a-carbon-tax

Unfortunately, none of our US politicians will even consider a carbon tax. Trump and the Rs are into cutting taxes and INCREASING the use of FF, while the Ds these days are obsessed with shutting down the government and maximizing the number of illegal aliens coming in the USA in order to increase their base, and hardly even mention any other issues.

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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 19:06:25

AdamB wrote:
Sure. And a century after that humans will be yucking it up like we do nowadays about supply and demand for whale oil. Haven't heard of all those problems caused by lack of supply and demand for whale oil nowadays? See what I mean.

We should remember that at the peak of the whale oil industry they were landing a half million barrels a year. Not per day but per year.
The industry fell apart when $1.50/ gallon whale oil got replaced by $0.07 gallon kerosene refined from coal or that new fangled product rock oil.
Substitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 00:27:18

vtsnowedin wrote:
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!


This is about peak oil. Of course there are substitutes for using refined crude products for transport, the wife does it every day. Will do it tomorrow morning. GTL will also fill in quite handily if the cost point of oil hits a certain amount, but all of this basically irrelevant because as we've been seeing, the change is already happening. Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines, and there is no shortage of things to make electricity from, or items to use it on to make liquid fuels when needed.

All we need to do is wait for the cost curves to cross and presto...we go from the peak oil in 2005 being the end of the world, to what happened within a decade...people not even needing those liquid fuels any more..and a few years later...and come countries AND companies deciding they don't need it either.

As to whether or not Tony Seba is right about peak oil in 2020 or so...that will be interesting to see. But so far, no one has disputed his information...only whether or not the disruptive technology can happen as quickly as he maintains. I guess we will all kick back and see....although those of us already EVing around know the answer to this question...and wish others luck in their own journey away from using these nasty liquid fuels in their own transport.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 08:10:35

Substitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!

You missed this part.Adam B.
Sure some substitutes exist but can they be geared up to replace 85 million barrels of oil a day. There is the rub. You can't double the output of the electric grid with wind and solar so there is a limit of how many EVs you can put out there, and GTL only works if you have the gas. It's not the lack of new technologies it is the shear scale of the problem that will leave many on foot and in the dark.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 19:11:33

Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 19:27:37

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.


Don't hold your breath, Rock. I went and searched. Couldn't find one. The closest I came was The Netherlands where about 25% of new car sales last year were EVs or PHEVs with big incentives.

Edit: Whoops... Total EV + PHEVs on the road is about 25% of last year's total sale of new cars.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 23:25:52

vtsnowedin wrote:
Substitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!

You missed this part.Adam B.
Sure some substitutes exist but can they be geared up to replace 85 million barrels of oil a day.


Peak demand theory supposes that there be no need to reach that number. I imagine that number will be dictated by the same mechanisms that dictate oil price today, supply, demand, who controls the marginal barrel, etc etc.

vtsnowedin wrote:There is the rub.


Not a rub. Just the same mechanism that confused the crud out of peak oilers when they thought that peak could only reach 60 million a day, not once did Colin Campbell factor in price when he made that call for a 1990 peak.

vtsnowedin wrote:You can't double the output of the electric grid with wind and solar so there is a limit of how many EVs you can put out there, and GTL only works if you have the gas. It's not the lack of new technologies it is the shear scale of the problem that will leave many on foot and in the dark.


There is plenty of gas, so running out in this century isn't the issue, no one is claiming we don't have the necessary resource base in radioactive isotopes to go quite a bit longer than that, so focusing on a "this or that" scenario doesn't work, when we can do them all, in various combinations, depending on costs and demand through time. And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 23:29:57

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.


Norway appears to be turning the corner.

Locally, all the free charging stations at the wife's work on now full. Her Ford, 2 Leafs, 1 Tesla, 1 BMW and 1 Chevy Volt (newer model).
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 23:50:21

AdamB wrote:.....

And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.


Bartlett talked more about debt than demand. Not exponential?

Image

Maybe you think it will just go away if you ignore it, eh?
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 08:32:08

Time and time again, when all else fails, peak oilers shift the topic over to the debt bomb.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 09:28:44

asg70 wrote:Time and time again, when all else fails, peak oilers shift the topic over to the debt bomb.


Again, I'm not a "peak oiler", as I've told you before; something else you conveniently ignore. And if you think the debt and resource availability aren't related and interconnected - if you think exponentially rising debt over the last 45 years is not an indicator - you are either deluding yourself or dumb as a stump. Both?

.... which has nothing at all to do with your assertions about Bartlett's exponential growth claims, does it? Population? Debt? Consumption of all things, until economic downturns inhibit growth? Since 1986 the world population has gone from 5 billion to 7.5 billion. Healthcare costs have gone up exponentially; all things that Bartlett discusses.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 16:05:29

GHung wrote:
AdamB wrote:.....

And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.


Bartlett talked more about debt than demand. Not exponential?

Image

Maybe you think it will just go away if you ignore it, eh?


Debt is as real as you think it is. Change the value of the currency, print your own money, and it can do whatever you'd like, just keep putting those zeros on the tail end until you run out of room on the bills.

But you can't do that with physicals like oil. Bartlett should have known better, as should you. Perhaps we can ask your uncle about the difference between the make believe, and the real?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby GHung » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 17:40:07

AdamB wrote:
Debt is as real as you think it is. Change the value of the currency, print your own money, and it can do whatever you'd like, just keep putting those zeros on the tail end until you run out of room on the bills.

But you can't do that with physicals like oil. Bartlett should have known better, as should you. Perhaps we can ask your uncle about the difference between the make believe, and the real?


Yet another absurd dodge from Adam. Debt is as real as an economy thinks it is. Start adding and subtracting zeros and the whole scheme fails and very little oil will get to market. Just ask the Venezuelans.

Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.

.... and I see you aren't man enough to answer simple questions:

viewtopic.php?p=1388967#p1388967
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Exxon sees global oil demand plunging by 2040

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 03 Feb 2018, 11:19:05


Exxon Mobil Corp said on Friday that it expects global oil demand to drop sharply by 2040 if regulations aimed at limiting the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate are fully implemented. An oil pump jack is seen at sunset in a field outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann Under this scenario, Exxon projected world oil consumption will drop 0.4 percent annually to 2040 to about 78 million barrels per day (bpd). That is about 25 percent below current levels, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration puts at 98 million bpd. The findings were contained in a report produced after Exxon’s shareholders supported a climate-impact resolution last year and Exxon’s board approved a plan to analyze the effects. Exxon’s climate-impact report comes roughly three years after almost 200 nations met in Paris to set a goal of limiting


Exxon sees global oil demand plunging by 2040
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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