[dashster]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

[vtsnowedin]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

The population growth will not be eternal.

[dashster]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

The population growth will not be eternal.

"eternal heretofore and heretoforeawhile population growth"

[vtsnowedin]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

The population growth will not be eternal.

"eternal heretofore and heretoforeawhile population growth"

Way too many syllables, Just say that die-off begins shortly.

[Islander]

Don't worry, scientists will invent a way to harvest renewable energy from the dreams of hippies.

[vtsnowedin]

Don't worry, scientists will invent a way to harvest renewable energy from the dreams of hippies.

NAhh! those are already up in smoke.

[dashster]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

The population growth will not be eternal.

"eternal heretofore and heretoforeawhile population growth"

Way too many syllables, Just say that die-off begins shortly.

When you say die-off, are you referring to death by starvation exclusively?

[DesuMaiden]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

The population growth will not be eternal.

I agree. Population growth will stop eventually. We are going to soon hit peak population too.

[vtsnowedin]

When you say die-off, are you referring to death by starvation exclusively?

No. In natural situations of other species it often involves disease and predation. In humans it often involves disease , starvation, exposure to the eliments and war.
Even enforced birth control by government decree would be included as anything that increases death rates to well above birth rates produces a die-off.

[dashster]

When you say die-off, are you referring to death by starvation exclusively?

No. In natural situations of other species it often involves disease and predation. In humans it often involves disease , starvation, exposure to the eliments and war.
Even enforced birth control by government decree would be included as anything that increases death rates to well above birth rates produces a die-off.

What I was wondering is what scenario you saw unfolding. If the world standard of living declines, will we allow people to starve to death. You can get a lot poorer and still feed people. India and China got to 1 billion a piece and were very poor during most of that journey. They demonstrated that lots of people can exist in poverty.

[DesuMaiden]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

Given that natural gas and coal are both non renewable resources, it is no surprise that they will eventually peak in production too.

[dashster]

If it weren't bad enough to have Peak Oil looming combined with eternal population growth, coal and natural gas could peak very close to the same time. The Energy Watch Group (which was early on Peak Oil thanks to tar sands/fracking/NGLs) predicts coal will peak in 2025 and natural gas in 2020.

Given that natural gas and coal are both non renewable resources, it is no surprise that they will eventually peak in production too.

I think their could be a surprise as to when they peak. Coal is thought to be no problem for over two hundred years at current usage in the US, but Leslie Glustrom pointed out in a talk that the EIA has a disclaimer with their estimate of recoverable coal reserves. And that is:

“The usual understanding of the term “reserves” as referring to quantities that can be recovered at a sustainable profit cannot technically be extended to EIA’s estimated recoverable reserves because economic and engineering data to project mining and development costs and coal resource market values are not available”.

I am now seeing predictions of plenty of natural gas for a century. And you see people, including former Peak Oiler T. Boone Pickens suggesting we convert trucks to natural gas. But the natural gas production forecasts vary, and one by a research group at the University of Texas sees a peak in US production in 2020.

[dashster]

Obama has said that we have "nearly 100 years" of natural gas. And in fact, the EIA asks "How much natural gas does the United States have and how long will it last?" and answers:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that there are about 2,214 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas that is technically recoverable in the United States. At the rate of U.S. natural gas consumption in 2013 of 26 Tcf per year, the United States has enough natural gas to last about 85 years.

Technically recoverable reserves consist of proved reserves and unproved resources. Proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas are the estimated volumes expected to be produced, with reasonable certainty, under existing economic and operating conditions. Unproved resources are additional volumes estimated to be technically recoverable without consideration of economics or operating conditions, based on the application of current technology.

So if we keep consumption the same - as we grow our population by 100 million over the next 50 years - and if we can figure our how to produce our unproven resources, we have 85 years.

What if we just use proven reserves, how much natural gas does the United States have? 13 years. But that is better than oil. 36 billion barrels of oil is only about 5.5 years of reserve if we didn't important any.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=58&t=8

[dashster]

There is another group that sees Peak Coal in the US in the near future. They argue that:

“Most U.S. coal is buried too deeply to be mined at a profit and should not be categorized as reserves, but rather as ‘resources.’”

The amazing thing is that the EIA admits they are calling resources reserves:

“The usual understanding of the term “reserves” as referring to quantities that can be recovered at a sustainable profit cannot technically be extended to EIA’s estimated recoverable reserves because economic and engineering data to project mining and development costs and coal resource market values are not available”.

[Subjectivist]

There is another group that sees Peak Coal in the US in the near future. They argue that:

“Most U.S. coal is buried too deeply to be mined at a profit and should not be categorized as reserves, but rather as ‘resources.’”

The amazing thing is that the EIA admits they are calling resources reserves:

“The usual understanding of the term “reserves” as referring to quantities that can be recovered at a sustainable profit cannot technically be extended to EIA’s estimated recoverable reserves because economic and engineering data to project mining and development costs and coal resource market values are not available”.

Humans are clever, with horizontal drilling hydro fracking and in situ burning we will get all that coal out. Try this thread,
underground-coal-gassification-t69418.html

[KaiserJeep]

I noticed nobody mentioned peak uranium. The USA has large reserves of uranium, enough to power the grid for decades - make that centuries if we utilize nuclear fuel reprocessing and breeder reactors.

By the actual numbers we hit peak uranium in 1980. But those numbers cannot be trusted, because demand for uranium was squelched by anti-nuclear extremists.

I know that I'm never going to convince many of you that nuclear energy is safe, available, and relatively carbon-free, only using some liquid fuels in mining and some electric grid power in ore processing and refining.

But for sake of completeness, those are the facts.

[Tanada]

I noticed nobody mentioned peak uranium. The USA has large reserves of uranium, enough to power the grid for decades - make that centuries if we utilize nuclear fuel reprocessing and breeder reactors.

By the actual numbers we hit peak uranium in 1980. But those numbers cannot be trusted, because demand for uranium was squelched by anti-nuclear extremists.

I know that I'm never going to convince many of you that nuclear energy is safe, available, and relatively carbon-free, only using some liquid fuels in mining and some electric grid power in ore processing and refining.

But for sake of completeness, those are the facts.

fission-faq-v-1-5-t16818.html

[Tikib]

Fission just doesn't have a high enough eroei and reprocessing barely breaks even sadly.

[PieceOfMine]

Don't worry, scientists will invent a way to harvest renewable energy from the dreams of hippies.

Let's harness the power of stupidity!

[vtsnowedin]

Don't worry, scientists will invent a way to harvest renewable energy from the dreams of hippies.

Let's harness the power of stupidity!

No stupidity is an energy sink that sucks the life out of everything it gets involved in.