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Peak Boomers

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Peak Boomers

Unread postby DiggitySmiggity » Mon 15 Nov 2021, 00:29:49

The Baby Boom generation has played a crucial role in the monstrous growth of the DJIA and US national debt in the last 35 years. They also hold and spend a larger share of wealth than any other cohort on the planet and have remained in the workforce longer than expected. What economic and societal consequences can we expect as they finally begin to retire?


https://mishtalk.com/economics/peak-boo ... has-peaked
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 01:42:27

The Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago......the oldest boomers were born just after WWII and so are now well into their 70s.

It must not have caused much of an effect if you didn't notice that boomers are already retiring.

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Hey man...millions of boomers have already retired and now spend all their time partying down and you didn't even notice.......

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby DiggitySmiggity » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 02:07:50

According to the link above, boomers recently peaked as a percentage of the workforce. So while some boomers did of course retire 15 years ago, that did not offset the unusually large number who stayed in the workforce relative to previous generations.


See also:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... bor-force/

The majority of Baby Boomers (U.S. adults born 1946 to 1964) are still in the labor force, and the oldest among them are staying in the labor force at the highest annual rate for people their age in more than half a century. In 2018, 29% of Boomers ages 65 to 72 were working or looking for work, outpacing the labor market engagement of the Silent Generation (21%) and the Greatest Generation (19%) when they were the same age, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of official labor force data.



So the big Boomer retirement wave hasn't begun yet, or is only starting to begin.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 15:23:45

The boomers have been retiring en-mass for a decade. I'm an early early Nomad and I'm over 60 and retired just recently. The problem with the economy isn't the boomers retiring, it's the millennials that never went to work in the first place. They will save the planet, from their couches.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 16:24:30

Plantagenet wrote:The Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago......the oldest boomers were born just after WWII and so are now well into their 70s.


The oldest boomers were being born in the early to mid-1960's.

How's that EV of yours working Plant?

:lol: :lol:

Can't discuss a car they claim to own (might take using..you know...words), and don't know nuttin' about Boomers. Are all Alaskan scientists so ..uninformed? They hand out "scientist" badges to anyone who knows better than to drink whiskey left in the car overnight when it is -30C outside?

Alaskan Intelligentsia? You decide....she probably didn't know when the last boomers were born either....

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 17:58:03

I re-read your link to the Mish commentary on Baby Boomer retirements.

A couple of things are clear.

First of all, your suggestion that the big boomer retirement has just "barely begun" is not accurate.

The Baby Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago....and those who haven't retired are aging out of the work force rapidly.

Second, Mish himself answered your question as to what will happen after most of the Baby Boomers retire. If you go back and re-read the Mish article you'll find that he said that after the Baby Boomers retire the Millenials and Generation X will take over.

Which raises a related question.....What will the Millenials and Generation X do when they take over?

I think we already have some pretty good clues. The Boomers are aging out of the workforce quickly and also aging out of running state, city and local governments. Except for the aging dinosaurs in the White House and Congress, Millenials are already in control of many towns and cities, and in those place where boomers are still in power their staffs are made up of millennials. If you look at the mayors of many our cities and towns....they are millennials. So that provides a clue as to what do the Millenials will do when they are in charge.......

Where they are in political control Millennials seem to be tilting toward progressive policies like defunding the police, legalizing drugs, not prosecuting people who shoplift, and enabling the growth of huge "homeless encampments" filled with homeless people and lots of drug abusers living in tents and camped along the sidewalks and parks of some of our most progressive cities. Look at the cities with millennial mayors....Minneapolis for example, or Los Angeles. The homeless encampments are growing and crime is exploding in these cities, thanks to new progressive policies put in place by their millennial-age leadership. I look for those trends to continue as Millenials continue to take over across the USA as the huge Boomer generation slides into retirement.

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I expect more progressive policies to be enacted as millennials take over, resulting in more homeless encampments, more drug addicts, fewer police, and more crimes of all types from shoplifting all the way up to and including more murders.

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 21:48:07

Here's a classic example of a young progressive Gen X Mayor screwing somebody over.

The young "Generation X" progressive mayor in Cambridge Maryland has just been arrested for posting revenge porn on Reddit.

md-cambridge-mayor-andrew-bradshaw-charged-revenge-porn-

I'm not saying some sleazy old Boomer political guy....say like President Clinton.....wouldn't do much the same kind of thing.

I'm just saying that when the last Boomer retires and all the boomer jobs are taken by Millennials and Generation Xers and a whole bunch of AI robots, I think the same human frailities and failings will be around. The only difference I see is that the Millenials are Gen Xers are more "progressive" on the whole, so the human frailties and failings will be even more hypocritical.

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby noobtube » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 00:45:25

Plantagenet wrote:Where they are in political control Millennials seem to be tilting toward progressive policies like defunding the police, legalizing drugs, not prosecuting people who shoplift, and enabling the growth of huge "homeless encampments" filled with homeless people and lots of drug abusers living in tents and camped along the sidewalks and parks of some of our most progressive cities. Look at the cities with millennial mayors....Minneapolis for example, or Los Angeles. The homeless encampments are growing and crime is exploding in these cities, thanks to new progressive policies put in place by their millennial-age leadership. I look for those trends to continue as Millenials continue to take over across the USA as the huge Boomer generation slides into retirement.

Cheers!


The Millenials are not hiding all the failures of the Baby Boomers.

The Boomers represented, probably the worst of humanity.

Despite massive national wealth, intact infrastructure, and security at the borders, these selfish assholes started pointless, losing wars, binged on drugs and partying, and treated less fortunate Americans like trash. At the same time, BOOMERS let in hordes of foreigners and immigrants to eat up all the resources that were meant for the poor.

Instead of paying a fair wage, Boomers were always looking for a cheat, a scam, a fraud (sub-prime loans, TOO BIG TO FAIL, offshoring industry).

Rather than solve root causes of social problems, these BOOMER morons threw more police violence and prisons. Then more. Then more. Then the most in human history.

BOOMERS had very low levels of civic involvement compared to the GI and Silent Generations. They lived off the sacrifice and hard-work of those who came before, while doing none of it on their own.

The Millenials and Generation Xers and beyond will have to clean-up decades of BOOMERS selfishness and laziness.

You see this with the defund the police, homeless encampments, equity movements, and helping addicts (health) instead of hurting them (police).

BOOMERS want their gas guzzlers. Younger generations are ready for electric.
BOOMERS want their McMansions. The young want walkable, liveable, neighborhoods.
BOOMERS want to hide from the poor. The young want to help them.
BOOMERS want exceptionalism. The young want inclusion.

The BOOMERS can't disappear fast enough for me.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 01:23:15

noobtube wrote:The Boomers represented, probably the worst of humanity.......The BOOMERS can't disappear fast enough for me.


There are people who are so irrational they dislike other people based only their skin color, and there are people who are so irrational they dislike other people based on their sex..... but you're the first person I've ever met who is prejudiced against an entire generation based solely on their age.

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Have a great day!

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby DiggitySmiggity » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 07:04:50

Plantagenet wrote:I re-read your link to the Mish commentary on Baby Boomer retirements.

A couple of things are clear.

First of all, your suggestion that the big boomer retirement has just "barely begun" is not accurate.

The Baby Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago....and those who haven't retired are aging out of the work force rapidly.


Uh, no. Baby boomers did not begin retiring, as shown by the green line from chart #1 of Mish's article, which continually rises from 2005 until the year 2020.


Image

Second, Mish himself answered your question as to what will happen after most of the Baby Boomers retire. If you go back and re-read the Mish article you'll find that he said that after the Baby Boomers retire the Millenials and Generation X will take over.


Wow, stunning and erudite observations....

This thread is more about the economic consequences of the richest group of Americans bailing out of the economy. Not social issues like defunding the police.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 13:33:20

If you look into the work of Strauss and Howe it's clear the boomers are no special exception, their generational archetype come through every 80 odd years. They are a product of their times and are created by it just as much as they created it. The 60's revolution, the mad 70's, and then the hunker down and make money 80's. Who was in charge of things then? Not the Boomers, It was the silent generation that preceded them that was in power. Boomers just did what the system told them to. Just like the Millennials are doing what the current system is telling them to do.

People who blame Boomers for being rich are so pathetic, it's classic "sour grapes" talk. They see these older people living in beautiful homes with garages full of sports cars, motorcycles and boats and want to blame them for all the world's woes. Just like when the Nazis blamed the Jews for owning all the big houses.

I'm not a boomer and I struggle with their moralistic smugness sometimes, but they earnt what they have and certainly would have taken stronger action about the environment and depletion issues if these problems had arisen when they were younger. Truth is they are too old now to be of influence, it's the millennials that are best positioned to solve the world's problems but you have to get them to put down their drugs, their smartphones and their gaming consoles first.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 13:53:26

DiggitySmiggity wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I
The Baby Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago....and those who haven't retired are aging out of the work force rapidly.

Uh, no. Baby boomers did not begin retiring....


Of course Baby Boomers started retiring as they hit retirement age.

Your suggestion that Baby Boomers aren't retiring is silly.

Do the math ----The baby boomer generation includes people born from 1946 to 1962. That means the oldest Boomers are now 65-75 years old. Of course most people that age are retired....and the boomers who aren't already retired are old and on the verge of retirement. Even people born in 1962----the very last year of the boomer generation---- will turn 60 next year and will be retiring soon.

Or if you can't do the math then look at the data.

The social security administration keeps a count of how many people file for social security and they say ca. 10,000 boomers are turning 65 each day and almost all of them are filing for social security and retiring.....each day!

You really need to live in the real world and face facts-----millions and millions of boomers are already retired, and millions more are retiring each year.....and the pace of boomer retirement is accelerating.

the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year

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Face Facts---millions and millions of baby boomers have already retired

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 14:37:58

A lot of the boomers I know began retirement around age 60, some in their middle fifties. If you're monied up it makes no sense to stay on the treadmill. Here Boomers went all in the property market, residential mostly, and it's proven to be a good bet, They sell a house in the inner suburbs today, pay their CGT and walk away with 500k or more. Then there is their private pension, Superannuation, which is still doing well. It's a good life, the hardest thing is often deciding which model new car to buy.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 15:31:57

Plantagenet wrote:Face Facts---millions and millions of baby boomers have already retired

Plantagenet wrote:The Boomer generation began retiring 10-15 years ago......the oldest boomers were born just after WWII and so are now well into their 70s.


Face facts indeed. Seems like you Republicrats and their facts are like...you know....

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You two aren't related are you Plant?
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 17:46:48

theluckycountry wrote:A lot of the boomers I know began retirement around age 60, some in their middle fifties. If you're monied up it makes no sense to stay on the treadmill. Here Boomers went all in the property market, residential mostly, and it's proven to be a good bet, They sell a house in the inner suburbs today, pay their CGT and walk away with 500k or more. Then there is their private pension, Superannuation, which is still doing well. It's a good life, the hardest thing is often deciding which model new car to buy.


As usual you've got the facts right, lucky.

AND its the same thing here in the USA. A lot of US boomers are home owners and that means that after they retire they can make a lot of money by selling their home and then moving somewhere else with cheaper home prices. They buy a nice but cheap house in the new community, usually somewhere where its sunny and warm and the taxes are low, and then the boomers pocket the difference. As usual, the boomers are making a smart play .... this time by cashing in on all the home equity they've built up over the years.

these-housing-markets-will-feel-the-biggest-impact-from-the-silver-tsunami-of-boomer-retirement

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Magaritaville in Florida is one of the newer retirement communities attracting retired boomers....

cheers!
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 21:36:46

I'll tell you one thing @Plantagenet, when you have enough money, peak oil becomes more of an academic exercise than a looming disaster. What the millennials do with the future is of no interest to me now, let them eat cake and build homes out of their old iphones.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 01:30:14

theluckycountry wrote:I'll tell you one thing @Plantagenet, when you have enough money, peak oil becomes more of an academic exercise than a looming disaster. What the millennials do with the future is of no interest to me now, let them eat cake and build homes out of their old iphones.


I know what you mean, lucky.

But I have to confess I'm personally very curious to see what the millennials and Gen X etc. will do now that they are taking over.

I can't help being curious about everything that it is happening in the world.....much of it is stupid beyond belief, and some of it is tragic, and some of it is so funny it makes me laugh out loud.

Its the funny part that keeps me enjoying life.

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Love those millennials and Gen Xers.....their fashion sense makes me laugh every time

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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 14:30:02

Plantagenet wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:I'll tell you one thing @Plantagenet, when you have enough money, peak oil becomes more of an academic exercise than a looming disaster. What the millennials do with the future is of no interest to me now, let them eat cake and build homes out of their old iphones.


I know what you mean, lucky.

But I have to confess I'm personally very curious to see what the millennials and Gen X etc. will do now that they are taking over.

Cheers!


As a member of the Gen X generation, I have been convinced for at least 4 decades that most people of my generation are worse than most people of earlier generations. I gave up on the idea of the Gen X generation fixing anything or making anything better as a teenager. I also think that Millennials are even worse, on average, than people my age. I can't wait to see what Gen Z members become; I call them the Zombie generation because most of them appear to be mostly brain dead.
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby mousepad » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 15:02:01

JuanP wrote:most people of my generation are worse than most people of earlier generations. I also think that Millennials are even worse


https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/63219- ... s-contempt
The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

― Socrates


Ain't that funny?
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Re: Peak Boomers

Unread postby Pops » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 15:32:32

According to Strauss–Howe, boomers are "prophets." They describe prophets as focused on values, individualism, and inner-life and that fits my generation in every respect.

But Boomers actually don't have as much wealth previous cohorts at their age, in fact when Silents were this age they controlled 60% of wealth where Boomers only hold 45%. AND Boomers have more debt, much of it student debt—$69,000! That isn't their college debt, it is borrowed for their offspring.

(bunch of stats here)
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