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On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s Group

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 16:27:04

The question has been for some time now been, is the excess inventory from oversupply or under demand? In turn this begs another question and that is why would producers be consistently oversupplying the market, when all that "dead" excess inventory represents expenses and no profits.
So one must deduce logically that the problem is under demand and they are simply producing to the max to both garner as much revenue as possible and to hopefully see a rebound in demand at some point.
All of which validates the Etp and its contention that demand will be inexorably falling in conjunction with a withering oil industry. Hence the oil price refusal to increase and conversely continues to decrease
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 17:06:41

"So one must deduce logically that the problem is under demand and they are simply producing to the max to both garner as much revenue as possible and to hopefully see a rebound in demand at some point."


There can be no doubt about what is happening, demand has tanked. If we look at the EIA's data it tells us that refinery input has been going up for the last 12 years while refinery output has been going down. It is taking more, and more crude to produce less and less finished product. With finished product inventories hitting record highes demand must be hitting record lows. It looks like the whole thing is running right on schedule.

click to enlarge, and save this before it evaporates
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby marmico » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 17:43:45

EIA Figure 3.2, Refinery and Blender Net Inputs and Net Production (Million Barrels per Day)

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... sec3_4.pdf

The EIA graphs will not evaporate.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 18:05:23

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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby marmico » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 18:20:05

What a doofus. Why do you persist in this idiocy? Your numerator is refinery and your denominator is refinery and blender.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Rockoil » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 23:53:29

I see Short's graphs as being correct. It is the official EIA numbers of input and output plotted on to a graph. It clearly show that more crude oil input needed every year to produce the same refined output.
Also, it took me a while to find out where this tread had been moved to. Why does every tread shortonoil post on have to be moved ?
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Cog » Tue 28 Mar 2017, 06:54:09

How many sock puppet accounts must you create to complain about threads being moved?
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