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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Pops » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 13:43:12

According to the CDC’s historical data, the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) has now been below the replacement level in 43 of the last 45 years. The only two years during which it reached slightly above the replacement level were 2006 and 2007.

Image

Without immigration we're in the same boat as Japan.

Image
(in this chart CAGR is the average growth rate from 1950-2015 of 1%)

http://www.newgeography.com/content/005 ... on-2015-50
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 16:40:58

Outcast,

My origional comment re: China was that they attempted to control growth with uneven success. The problems they are having due to an aging population, or lack of young folks, is a direct result of their efforts to limit growth through the One Child policy.

Just the act of slowing an economy is difficult in our financial world.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 01:15:26

Newfie wrote:Outcast,

My origional comment re: China was that they attempted to control growth with uneven success. The problems they are having due to an aging population, or lack of young folks, is a direct result of their efforts to limit growth through the One Child policy.

Absolutely Newf. I was only pointing out the population growth in China (that was so surprising to me) in the context that despite the One Child policy, it still rose quite a bit.

And of course, the aging demographic issue shows that no matter what a society does re reproduction, there are significant issues over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 09:16:26

Newfie, Yes, the One Child Policy was no longer needed because fertility in China doesn't need to be controlled any more. I agree that it had some "negative" impacts like an aging population and, also, sex imbalance because of the traditional preference for boys over girls, but I consider it a successful policy. There would be around 500 million more Chinese people today if it hadn't been implemented. I am grateful that is not the case. The aging population problem is completely unavoidable if you want to reduce population growth, but it is temporary and we can make changes to adapt to it.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 09:22:25

Outcast, The continued population growth inspite of the lower fertility rates is normal and unavoidable. In demographics it is called the Population Lag Effect. It takes several generations for replacement fertility to stop population growth. You can read the definition here. Scroll down to find the relevant section. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

You are correct in pointing out that the Japanese are leading where population contraction is concerned. This has been the case for decades. Japan's population is actually already contracting. Like you pointed out, the Chinese, and many others, are bound to benefit from the Japanese experience.

Forecasts project that India will become the most populous country in the world in the future. The Indian population momentum is stronger because their fertility was higher than the Chinese for decades, so the Population Lag Effect is playing against them. In other words, India's population is younger.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 09:39:33

Well, since their goal was to limit population to 700 million by 2030 (or 2050?) it was a failure. No doubt it was an improvement so a limited success.

But here is the point....

China took rather moderate measures to limit growth and their economy suffered. What would it look like if they took the necessary measure to stop economic growth?

Japan has stooped population growth but is having a hard time adjusting.

The USA has essentially stopped INTERNAL growth but are adjusting by increasing immigrants. Why? So we don’t crash the economy, as noted elsewhere above, they contribute to the tax base but recieve few services.

We need to reg our economy to reduce our population. That will require a prolonged depression. At least by current standards and ways of looking at things. There may be another way but no one seems to be talking about it.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 10:28:59

Newfie, The goal was to have a population of 700 million by 2080, so calling it a failure is premature, IMO. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

China's economy has grown faster than any other major economy since the policy was implemented so I wouldn't say that their economy has suffered as a consequence. The Chinese people's quality of life has also improved drastically during this time. I am not disputing that there were economic and, particularly, social costs to implementing the OCP.

It is true that reducing population growth will inevitably affect GDP growth, but not, necessarily, per capita GDP growth. IMO, global population needs to be reduced because our current population is unsustainable, and this will require different economic and financial systems because the ones we have are based on debt and growth. We can choose to do this voluntarily or be forced to do it. I think we will not do this out of our own free will, so it will be involuntary.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 10:40:22

OK, 2080. You are a bit more optimistic than me but that’s not saying much.

So what can we in the Western World extract from the Chinese and Japanese experiments in slowing growth?
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 11:04:49

Newfie, If there is one thing I am not is optimistic. I have no idea what China or the world will be like in 2080, but I think things are esentially getting worse everywhere, including China, and I don't expect that to change. China is brutally overpopulated and has humongous environmental and pollution problems.

I don't think that the West can learn much from China's OCP since our fertility is already low enough. Africa could learn from China, though. As far as learning from the Japanese goes, that is a different thing. I do think that it would be smart to follow their evolution and study Japanese policies to see which ones work and which don't. We could make it easier on ourselves by learning from their mistakes.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 11:22:51

Ah, our reproduction rate is low, our population is still increasing due to immigration.

I didn’t say you were optimistic, just more so than me. ;)

Think about this the USA has 26 times more aerable land per person than China.

Two conclusions from that:
1) I don’t want to live in China.
2) Eventuallychina will become sufficiently desperate to take desperate measures.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 11:54:14

Pops wrote:
Image



First, the pay scale chart looks wrong, and given the lack of explanation, citations, etc. doesn't look at all credible to me. Since it only covers from 2016, the timeframe is more about noise than a meaningful trend anyway. (I did the right click thing to see it on a different page to see the scale on the right).

Now, a credible site which gives a meaningful timeframe tells quite a different story.

United States Wages and Salaries Growth 1960-2018 | Data | Chart
Wages in the United States increased 4.89 percent in May of 2018 over the same month in the previous year. Wage Growth in the United States averaged 6.20 percent from 1960 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 13.77 percent in January of 1979 and a record low of -5.77 percent in March of 2009.

Now, this is nominal growth, so real wage growth would be more like 2.7% over the past 58 years. Or, eyeballing the 5 year chart, more like 2% (due to low inflation) over the past 5 years. Or if you want to use the past 2.5 years, more like 1.5% (again, very low inflation).

But NOTHING like the chart from payscale.com shows.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 12:24:09

What part don't you get?
Real wages were catching up, now not so much.

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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 13:19:23

Newfie, I wouldn't want to live in China, either. The situation there is much worse than in the USA. China has been civilized for millenia; can you imagine the ecological damage that has done? The American continent is virgin by comparison. The USA mostly had Stone Age hunter gatherers until a few centuries ago. The relationship between resources and population is much better in the US, too.

As far as migration goes, in a perfect world I would have no countries and free migration across the planet for everyone, but in today's world I am against migration in spite of the fact that I am a migrant. I am in favor of stopping all migration.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 17:06:46

Juan,

Interesting comment. Mom was an immigrant, Wife an immigrant, Daughter in Law an immigrant and I hold 2 passports.

I’m not against immigration, but IMHO to discuss immigration intelligently you first have to ask “What do we want the population of USA to be?” Pick a number, say 300 million, it’s too high but just for sake of this discussion ignore that. Whatever the number someday you will reach it. In the meantime it brings up some interesting questions...

WHEN do we want to hit 300?
How many of those additionalmpeople should come from within the USA?
How many should be immigrants?
What happens when we hit that nimber? If still growing by internal means do we encourage more birth control? Do we limit the number of babies?
If we have some open slots who should they go to? The best and brights? People who can pay lots for USA citizenship? People seeking asylum?

If we know how many people we will have then we can plan on food stuffs to feed them and fuel to comfort them. With no up side number the we have to plan for unlimited growth.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby careinke » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 19:47:44

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Newfie wrote:Juan,
But the Chineeee apparently didn’t find the 1 child policy all that hurtful because apparently very, very few are taking advantage of the extra liberty. Also, there were already a lot of loop holes and exceptions. The goal was to halt their population at 700 million by 2050 I think. They are now about 1,200 millions.

Actually, it passed 1.4 billion (1,400 million) in 2017. I remember that because I was watching the population of China and India, trying to get a sense of third world population growth overall, since they're the major components. That surprised me -- I would have guessed the 1.2 billion if I hadn't been tracking it more recently.

As I understand it, China is trying to contend with the future big demographic problem of an aging population and far too few people to deal with all the elderly via its dropping of the 1 child policy. They are already having problems, which will likely get much worse. Lots of credible looking articles via Googling "china problems caring for the elderly".

Given that Japan is in a mad dash to try to solve their elderly care problem (more intense per capita but quite small compared to China in magnitude), hopefully if Japan succeeds, they will have a HUGE market in China (and the US re nursing homes trying to save money (and perhaps people who want to stay the hell away from nursing homes)).

Actually, China passed 1.4 billion (1,400 million) people in the 2016 / 2017 timeframe. I remember that because I was watching the population of China and India, trying to get a sense of third world population growth overall, since they're the major components. That surprised me -- I would have guessed the 1.2 billion if I hadn't been tracking it more recently. What I found scary was how rapidly the population continues to grow in absolute numbers.

Oh, and as of 2018, it looks like India is well past the 1.3 billion mark itself, and could well pass china in the coming decade.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-popu ... opulation/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

https://www.worldometers.info/world-pop ... opulation/


We should just let them all into the U.S. :roll: After all, they are hard workers and we have lots of room.
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Re: On the fast track to doom

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Jul 2018, 13:15:22

Pops wrote:What part don't you get?
Real wages were catching up, now not so much.


The part I am objecting to is the first chart you had had a big negative number on the right scale, and no context to explain that. So it looked like it was showing wage loss, where wage gains have been the norm.

So it's not about real wage growth slowing (my numbers showed that to be the case and I agree with that), it's that the first chart shown, in the context of the numbers I could see, looks to be flat out very wrong.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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