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Oil Glut Ahead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 09 Sep 2010, 05:39:13

Ayoob wrote:A storage tank is your friend. In my mind's eye, I have a few five hundred gallon tanks on my property in the future. Once every couple of years I'll wander across a good deal and buy.


Someone I know already does that for road diesel, he acquired a couple of 1500litre tanks and fills them up during the dips in price and it tides him over the peaks. Like most things, you need to be relativly well off to be able to do it.
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 09 Sep 2010, 06:09:03

dolanbaker wrote: Like most things, you need to be relativly well off to be able to do it.


I suppose that statement is relative. One can also be reasonably disciplined and thrifty to have saved the money you need for the set up.

1. Save the money for a tank (used)
2. Save money to fill it.
3. As you use it put aside money you would be spending on fuel and the money you were saving before and re-fill.

Repeat as necessary
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 09 Sep 2010, 07:25:35

I looked up vehicle miles drivenand we are still at around '05 levels in the US, I'm not sure people have grown too accustomed to this price :

Code: Select all
All Roads and Streets as of June
Travel in Millions of Vehicle Miles
Year --- Month---Year To Date---Moving 12-Month
2004  ---257,245 --- 1,451,658  ---2,937,876
2005  ---263,724  ---1,473,298  ---2,985,806
2006  ---263,713 --- 1,487,260 --- 3,003,357
2007 --- 265,336  ---1,496,680  ---3,023,756
2008 --- 255,894  ---1,476,039  ---3,009,150
2009  ---260,468 --- 1,468,204  ---2,965,636
2010  ---263,852  ---1,469,833  ---2,980,636



I'd read China was slowing in the second qtr but looks like it won't be by much in the 3rd:
China's economic growth slowed to 10.3 percent over a year earlier in the second quarter, down from its blistering 11.9 percent first quarter pace. Many worry that the slowdown could weaken the global recovery if it cuts Chinese demand for imported iron ore, industrial machinery and other foreign goods.

But strong export demand, domestic consumption and investment are all still supporting steady growth, federation analyst Zhang Liqun said in its report. "The rise in the PMI for August shows that China's economy will not suffer a serious correction," Zhang said.
Seattle PI

China's auto sales were only up 56% in August!

---
Someone asked where they store oil, it's mostly in tank farms like in Cushing OK (midwest delivery point) or at refineries, Shipping terminals etc.

Here's how much there is in storage, this includes the SPR:

Image


This is excluding SPR:
Image
EIA

I think Pup makes a good point, even though we have lots of oil in storage our Days of Supply is relatively low
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby Comp_Lex » Fri 10 Sep 2010, 09:00:58

Pops wrote:I looked up vehicle miles drivenand we are still at around '05 levels in the US, I'm not sure people have grown too accustomed to this price :

Code: Select all
All Roads and Streets as of June
Travel in Millions of Vehicle Miles
Year --- Month---Year To Date---Moving 12-Month
2004  ---257,245 --- 1,451,658  ---2,937,876
2005  ---263,724  ---1,473,298  ---2,985,806
2006  ---263,713 --- 1,487,260 --- 3,003,357
2007 --- 265,336  ---1,496,680  ---3,023,756
2008 --- 255,894  ---1,476,039  ---3,009,150
2009  ---260,468 --- 1,468,204  ---2,965,636
2010  ---263,852  ---1,469,833  ---2,980,636



You still need MPG info.
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 10 Sep 2010, 11:06:48

Here's some MPG info,the passenger car fleet is pretty static at least up to '07, the light trucks or "everything else with 4 wheels" is up some.

But the reason I noted the numbers was because someone mentioned people are getting used to high gas prices, since the price of unleaded is about what it was in '05 and the miles driven is about the same I'm thinking there isn't much difference in "adjustment". I couldn't find a good chart real quick tho...
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby Comp_Lex » Sat 11 Sep 2010, 03:30:47

That info is okay, but I really like to see the MPG data of 2008 and 2009.
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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 11 Sep 2010, 04:58:29

Comp_Lex wrote:That info is okay, but I really like to see the MPG data of 2008 and 2009.


Exactly how much do you think it might have changed? Since improvements come from vehicle turnover and new car sales during those years varied from average to scraping bottom during that time I do not see how it would change the trend visible in the information linked to by Pops.

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Re: Oil Glut Ahead?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 13 Jan 2018, 21:32:38

Pops wrote:
In May, less than a month after the blowout of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, a key milestone was achieved with little notice: Total U.S. supplies of petroleum and products refined from it (including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) surpassed 1.8 billion barrels, reaching the highest level in the last 20 years. Since then the total has continued to edge upward, hitting 1.87 billion barrels in the week ended August 27, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Despite the Iraq War and the resulting production disruptions, despite the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf, despite turmoil in Nigeria and ongoing cross-border transshipment quarrels in Central Asia and the multiple, repeated declarations that "peak oil" has arrived and supplies will inevitably dwindle, the United States has more petroleum on hand today than it has had since at least the beginning of the first Gulf War.

Part of that surplus comes from increased oil and gas production, particularly from ongoing production in the non-OPEC countries (including the U.S., where a "shale gas boom" has created a natural-gas glut). It also comes from flat demand due to the stumbling economic recovery and changing consumer behaviors. Neither of those factors is guaranteed to last. But as the summer driving season passes and students head back to school, awareness has gradually dawned that we may be looking at an oil surplus for years to come.


Read the rest then tell me your opinion, Oil Glut or Oil Crunch?

Leaving aside criticism of the article, glut or crunch are two sides to the same coin, I think.

Oil production increased significantly in the US because of $150 oil, OK, that's one side of the coin.
Many argue $150 oil also caused, or at the least contributed to, a recession that has not yet abated - there is the other side.

It may be that we start to see a real correlation between employment and oil supply from here on out.

What do you think?


I really miss Pops he used to have such great information he loved to share.
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