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North Sea Update

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun Jan 19, 2014 7:30 pm

We are all just blind folded and feeling the elephant.
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:45 pm

So true. And some folks have the head stuck so far up one part of that elephant's anatomy they haven't a clue about the big picture. But not and you, of course. LOL.
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby phaster » Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:12 pm

ROCKMAN wrote:So true. And some folks have the head stuck so far up one part of that elephant's anatomy they haven't a clue about the big picture. But not and you, of course. LOL.


have any opinion about Petrobras (PBR) who owns several major pre-salt offshore oil fields

http://commodityhq.com/2013/brazil-to-auction-off-massive-offshore-oil-field/

with no more super giant fields likely to be discovered, and new recovery developments is difficult environments, I am kinda wondering how long the world can stay on the PO plateau
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby sparky » Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:18 pm

.
Yes Rockman , the stratospheric cost increase for the new fields is a bit of a worry
several majors have flagged "investment fatigue" and the national oil companies just don't have the money

I doubt if there is going to be a large step up in development until the price of crude make it worthwhile
better keep going the projects already on stream and fiddle at the margin of existing fields

the old Peak Oil theory was presupposing a geological limit
the present Peak Oil rest on a technical limit
the new Peak Oil could be a financial limit , the inability of customers to pay for new supply

It's the same thing really but seen from a different angle
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby Quinny » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:10 am

I don't really think it is the same thing. Pyramids were hardly profitable!
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby sparky » Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:02 pm

.
the Pyramid were a government job ,
it kept the peasants busy rather than sitting on their but thinking why do we pay so much taxes
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby Tanada » Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:54 pm

Pictures and map at link below the quote.

Billion-barrel North Sea oil discovery is largest UK find of the century

The news has been welcomed by the industry, which has struggled after the oil price collapsed in 2014, leading to large-scale job losses.

The embattled energy industry yesterday welcomed the announcement of the discovery of the UK’s largest new oil field this century.

Exploration specialists Hurricane Energy said up to one billion barrels of oil could lie in the untapped Greater Lancaster area, 60 miles west of Shetland.

They reportedly need to raise £318million to develop the discovery and could begin producing oil in two years.

The news was welcomed by the industry, which has struggled after the oil price collapsed in 2014, leading to large-scale job losses.

Deirdre Michie, chief executive of industry body Oil and Gas UK, said: “This is extremely exciting and welcome news.

“Hurricane Energy’s ­announcement demonstrates the significant remaining potential of the UK ­Continental Shelf.

“Signs of optimism, mainly led by exploration and production ­companies, are returning to the basin which has worked hard to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

“However, the UKCS needs fresh investment so it can capitalise on its potential.”

Hurricane found oil in two wells which sit 20 miles apart and believe they form part of the same field.

The discovery is larger than finds in recent years, which have been about 25million barrels.

Hurricane’s find is ­estimated to be a fifth of the size of the Forties field, which once held about five billion barrels.

Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the Oil and Gas Institute at Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon ­University, said: “The industry needs good news and this certainly is.

“If it’s as big as they say, and it’s early days as they’ve only drilled a couple of wells, it’s really promising.”

“This follows on the back of some pretty big finds west of Shetland, the Clair Ridge and Schiehallion.

“This is the first announcement where Hurricane are saying they have a couple of finds which are connected and that makes it one very large field.

“The reason why I’d be slightly cautious is that it’s early days.

“What they’ve found is called a ‘fractured basement reservoir’ which is really hard, brittle rock like granite.

“Until you test the flow it’s too early to say how much oil will be recovered.

“But this is good news and signs of some confidence returning to the North Sea.”

Dr Robert Trice, Hurricane’s chief executive, described the find as “exciting” and “a highly ­significant moment”.


http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scott ... l-10111092
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:52 pm

Interesting for sure. The caution I would have is this part of the North Sea is inherently difficult to operate in because of weather. They used a semi-sub to drill the structure and it took 265 days on site which is significant given the reservoir is at 1750 m true vertical depth. This means costs will likely be high for ongoing drilling. If you look at the actual press release from Hurricane Energy it indicates they had oil shows over a significant column of fractured basement, they were not able to test the well.

A big issue here is how do you come up with reserves? It is fractured basement rock so presumably most of the reservoir storage is in fractures or are the fractures actually connected to a more conventional reservoir adjacent to where the well was drilled? Assessing potential reserves in a fractured reservoir is one of the most difficult things to do. It is not so difficult in unconventional shale reservoirs which actually have porosity so calculating out stored volume is easy. In a solid granitic or metamorphic basement rock there is no matrix porosity hence all the storage capacity is in the fractures (unless it is connected to a more conventional reservoir somewhere in which case the fractures are just a conduit). How do you assess fracture width, distribution and storage capacity? This is something that has tormented petroleum geologists for many decades and as far as I am aware there are no answers at this point.

That doesn't mean this couldn't be significant. There are some pretty spectacular fields around the world that produce from fractured basement.. Zeit Bay on the west side of the GOS in Egypt has produced several hundred million bbls from a fractured granitic basement, Suban in offshore Indonesia has something in the order of 13 TCF in a fractured basement reservoir. Needs to be a lot more work done on this before I'd be jumping up and down proclaiming "praise the lord".
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:36 pm

Doc - Yes, interesting. There's a shallow oil field in the San Joaquin Basin in CA that produces from a weathered/fractured granite. I think the source rock is the Monterey Shales that sits on it. Not much production as I barely recall.

"They reportedly need to raise £318million to develop the discovery". And that alone tells us how little proof there is of all those reserves existing. If there were proof of even a very small percentage of those existing the bankers would be stepping all over each other trying to loan them the capex. Thus why the company needs to "raise" the money...the project isn't "bankable".
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BP Announces New North Sea Discoveries

Unread postby AdamB » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:01 pm


BP plc announced Wednesday that it has made new discoveries in the North Sea at Capercaillie, in Block 29/4e, and Achmelvich, in Block 206/9b. The Capercaillie well was drilled to a total depth of 12,303 feet and encountered light oil and gas-condensate in Paleocene and Cretaceous-age reservoirs, while Achmelvich was drilled to a total depth of 7,857 feet and hit oil in Mesozoic-age reservoirs. “These are exciting times for BP in the North Sea as we lay the foundations of a refreshed and revitalized business that we expect to double production to 200,000 barrels a day by 2020 and keep producing beyond 2050,” Mark Thomas, BP North Sea regional president, said in a company statement. “We are hopeful that Capercaillie and Achmelvich may lead to further additions to our North Sea business, sitting alongside major developments like Quad 204, which came onstream in


BP Announces New North Sea Discoveries
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North Sea Back to ‘New Normal’

Unread postby AdamB » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:53 pm


The North Sea is now back to a ‘new normal’ but we are never likely to go back to the heyday of 2014, according to Kevin Swann, Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) UK upstream research analyst. “Cost cutting has been widespread with an average reduction of more than 30 percent in operating expenditure across the North Sea,” Swann told Rigzone. “Plans for growth are featuring again on corporate agendas, but there is still a sense of cautious optimism as investor confidence has been shaken. However, companies are now geared up for a ‘lower for longer’ oil price and should be more insulated against any future oil price shocks,” he added. The recovery to date has been slow when comparing the North Sea to the United States, Stuart White, Bank of Scotland regional director for mid-markets North of Scotland, said. “Assuming there are no further macro-level shocks,


North Sea Back to ‘New Normal’
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Re: North Sea Update

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:38 pm

"The North Sea is now back to a ‘new normal’ but we are never likely to go back to the heyday of 2014..."

2014???? The NS peaked about 17 years ago. If there was a "heyday" it was in the 1990's when the region boomed. The "new normal" is the continuation of long term depletion.
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