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PeakOil is You

New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 00:08:39

A little more fuel for the fire:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/us-thre ... r-iea.html

Won't last forever, but that headline brings back memories.

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby tita » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 02:53:41

asg70 wrote:Won't last forever, but that headline brings back memories.

Image

I like the other titles... "trade war" and "Microsoft on trial". That was in 1999 (20 years ago), and the context was sure different. But we are in the same economical dynamics as today. And when this issue was out, it was 20 years after the beginning of the second oil shock (1979).

An excerpt from the original article:
"That is good news, is it not? For consumers, certainly, especially those in poor countries whose lives will be improved by the warmth, light and mobility that cheaper energy brings. It would be progress, too, to get away from the notion that oil is scarce—an assumption that led to two decades of energy-policy mistakes, such as subsidising coal and nuclear power."

A few years later, the scarcity of oil would reappear before realizing again that it was not as scarce as we thought. Now we subsidise renewables and electric cars, and we try to get away from fossil fuels... not because the fear that they are scarce but because of new fears about Global Warming and pollution.

Oil is an history of booms and busts. But the thing is that nobody is able to forecast the next bust or boom.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 06:00:53

1998-1999 were the best years ever for gasoline prices relative to hourly wages - $1.14 per gallon at $13.40 hourly wage or 12 gallons per hour worked in 1999.

2018 was okay - $2.72 per gallon at $22.70 hourly wage or 8.3 gallons per hour worked.

Upwardly adjust 20% for 2018 fuel economy increase relative to 1999 and 2018 is the 1999 equivalent of 10 gallons per hour worked.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=nfF1
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:27:44

marmico wrote:1998-1999 were the best years ever for gasoline prices relative to hourly wages - $1.14 per gallon at $13.40 hourly wage or 12 gallons per hour worked in 1999.

2018 was okay - $2.72 per gallon at $22.70 hourly wage or 8.3 gallons per hour worked.

Upwardly adjust 20% for 2018 fuel economy increase relative to 1999 and 2018 is the 1999 equivalent of 10 gallons per hour worked.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=nfF1

Excellent points.

Now, the next logical step for those "concerned" about fuel affordability:

Drive a 10-ish year old Corolla or Civic -- NOT a late model Monster truck or giant SUV.

Most people don't need the far left to "take care" of them cradle to grave -- they need some common sense and prudence and frugality first (i.e. some self-control and maturity).

I still say public high school education should include mandatory training in things like budgeting and basic investing -- to help prepare people for life. Preferably this would start in grade school or at least middle school. Then people would at least know to THINK and PLAN for affordability as part of their normal living process -- or not have the excuse that they were never taught when they don't.

Do they still have mandatory wood shop for all boys in middle school? The home economics, that all girls had to take made a LOT more sense, even in the early 70's when I was forced to make a book shelf and identify a ball peen hammer.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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