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New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 13:01:12

pstarr wrote:Cog and Adam share a handle? No idea, good buddy lol


Smooth move, making sure to avoid the post topic. Even cuter, feeling the need to throw straw in the air, fling feces and make weird screeching noises, thereby proving the second point that Cog and I have been discussing by ignoring the facts.

Keep up the good work!

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 13:03:03

The Oil Lobby needs their Cheerleaders on these sites to contain the obvious and keep the institutional funds flowing to maintain output. Whatever it takes!
Ben Bernanke said we would thank him (them) later.
Indeed I will, when the SHTF if I see him and Janet by a oil barrel fire, I'll offer a piece of roasted Rat meat. Appropriate, don't you agree?
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 13:40:11

Nothing because the government shutdown issue was solved a week ago. Put down the bong dude. Going stoned through life is no way to live.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 22:06:13

We're long overdue for an update! :o

Here is a pretty chart showing world crude & condensate production, updated through July. Notice how it just keeps going up - steady as she goes! Back in November last year we had ANOTHER new record of over 82 million bpd! 8O

I made the chart zero-based, and everything!

Image
SOURCE

Happy peak oiling! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 22:43:12

copious.abundance wrote:We're long overdue for an update! :o

Here is a pretty chart showing world crude & condensate production, updated through July. Notice how it just keeps going up - steady as she goes! Back in November last year we had ANOTHER new record of over 82 million bpd! 8O

I made the chart zero-based, and everything!

Image
SOURCE

Happy peak oiling! :lol:


Oh you must be kidding? AGAIN!! How many more peak oils can the world take!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:13:20

Until the data shows differently, the overall trend for oil is really very simple.

Global demand and supply for crude oil is increasing. As it normally does, every year aside from deep recessions, for quite a while now. Period.

In the big picture, all the hand waving, conjecture, predictions, etc, -- whether it's about EV's and green energy, or about ETP and that "nontraditional sources" are being counted as oil and ETP, and blah, blah, blah -- this is the fundamental reality.

And there's no credible sign that this changes in the next decade. Maybe two or even more, given the proportion of ICE's to EV's which will be produced in the third world due to fundamental economic and infrastructure realities.

Not, of course, that this will change the many nonsensical FUD spreading arguments a bit. And not that this is good news, given the realities of AGW and BAU growth on a finite planet.

But why do so many arguments that COMPLETELY ignore, or worse deny, this fundamental reality get so much play on this site? Are we really so collectively ignorant about comprehending basic facts on the ground? Are we really so delusional that we believe that such economic facts are "conspiracies" since they're reported by the MSM?

Or am I missing something, and the majority of the time spent here should be seen as purely entertainment -- and I may as well spend the time on Netflix or gaming, etc?

I originally came here to learn, and that's my overall goal when I come back. Is this just galactically stupid? (Feel to be frank -- I honestly want to know).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:32:21

Image


The value of the forum at present is mostly in the archive that documents its rise and fall, with its various "Dewey Defeats Truman" style posts. That kind of "I told ya so" validation can't be had with the daily dribble of news that fuels dueling predictions of the future. It only shakes out over the course of years. Forums really don't operate anymore as a call-and-response with that sort of feedback time. That's why you see a few people dredge up threads and try to reply to nonexistent posters. By the time Short really does climb back under a rock it won't be possible to rub humiliation in his face. That's just how things work. When people realize they're wrong they just silently walk away while hoping nobody notices.

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-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:53:19

But why do so many arguments that COMPLETELY ignore, or worse deny, this fundamental reality get so much play on this site? Are we really so collectively ignorant about comprehending basic facts on the ground? Are we really so delusional that we believe that such economic facts are "conspiracies" since they're reported by the MSM?


I'm left scratching my head as well. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact those who post a lot here are the mouth drooling conspiracy nuts who believe that oil companies have conspired to produce oil and make them buy products made from it, all the while keeping the potential impacts secret (although all of the Exxon research on climate was published apparently it is still "secret" to these folks). These folks have imagined a scenario of complete doom, perhaps they have planned their lives around it or have at least resigned themselves to it so no amount of factual information to the contrary will dissuade them from their view of an impending apocalypse. We see that with several posters here who continue to recite the same "facts" that have been shown to be completely incorrect with data to back that up (eg. global demand for oil is collapsing, oil prices caused the great recession, people can no longer afford oil, oil companies can't replace their produced reserves, refineries can't deal with light oil from shales, Saudi Arabia is lying about their oil etc, etc). MY guess is those people do not want to learn anything, what they are looking for is a group to pat them on the back and agree with them, join them in their expectation of an imploded global economy, zombie hordes etc. Folks like this will not listen to reason, will ignore hard data that contradicts their views and have no intention of contemplating anything other than a reality they have already created for themselves.

I originally came here to learn, and that's my overall goal when I come back. Is this just galactically stupid? (Feel to be frank -- I honestly want to know).


I think there is an opportunity to learn here. Occasionally people post information or analysis that are not common knowledge. Someone not familiar with oil and gas could learn a bunch by going through the archives here. I find myself reading something and saying, hold on is that right? and then doing a bit of research to see if it is.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 09:43:11

worldcc2.jpg
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:43:38

dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 21:58:10

dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg

Here it is without the logarithmic scale:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... uction.png

Notice its most rapid growth occurred during the time when automobile ownership grew rapidly. Then in the 70's the Oil Crisis spurred fuel efficiency and as a result you needed less growth in oil supply.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:03:49

real oil price.gif


Hi Copious abundance,

As you no doubt are aware, the logarithmic scale allows one to easily see how the rate of growth in crude plus condensate output has changed over time. The copious abundance of oil supply has led to higher oil prices and greater efficiency in the use of oil since 1980.

There have been temporary gluts in the 1994-1999 period and since 2015, but notice that real oil prices are not close to the 1970 level of $11/b in 2016$. Data in the chart above is from the BP Statistical Review

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/ ... nergy.html
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:13:24

AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.

Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.

If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 15:39:41

Because demand and supply are more or less in balance.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:36:46

dcoyne78 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.


But the half wits said it did!!! How dare they lie!!

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

dcoyne78 wrote:Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.


1960 to 1970 was the end of cheap oil (Colin Campbell needing nearly 3 decades more to pretend it was in the near future), of course everything since then has been more expensive in real terms. And who cares about the rate of growth, that mitigated exactly because of the end of cheap oil, it is called efficiency. Energy intensity has been dropping since that time, fuel efficiency has been increasing, and some of us don't even fill our cars with gasoline anymore! Can you imagine that? People right here on this website told themselves that peak oil in 2005 would itself stop anything from mitigating peak oil, Who Killed The Electric Car being all the rage as a reference!

Needless to say, those of us who don't use gasoline in our cars any more laugh about how little peak oilers know about resource economics.

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?

[/quote]

See my other post demonstrating the proper way to talk about abundance. I should also mention, at the IEW (International Energy Workshop) at the University of Maryland this past July, other big energy analysis organizations were doing exactly the same. The future isn't about prices today, but the prices of tomorrow, and where the resource cost curves say that oil is, and how much can be developed at any given price.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 20:38:14

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?


Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?

The best real-world way to determine whether a resource is abundant is the cost of finished goods. Gas is well below the point where people start grumbling, therefore oil is still abundant.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:42:54

asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.

I picked $11/b because that was the real price of oil in 2016 $ during the oil glut around 1999-2000. Grumbling is difficult to measure. :) Real prices, less so.

Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.

I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:35:07

dcoyne78 wrote:
asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.


Or when demand has migrated elsewhere, or decreased because of conservation. Why using price is a two sided sword, it ain't all about abundance. It is about the relationship between supply and demand at any point in time.

Peakers a decade ago never seemed to talk about this while declaring that price mattered. Always struck me as weird, then it became obvious that resource economics wasn't in their competence envelope any more than oil and gas development.

dcoyne78 wrote:Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.


And maybe rate of growth changed because demand changed. And maybe price changed for the same reason. And maybe peak demand is already happening, and we can all say good riddance to wasting oil by doing something so stupid as burning it?


dcoyne78 wrote:I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.


Sounds similar to Lynch and Yergin, back when peak oilers were getting it wrong and yucking it up over the value of what real energy expert types were estimating. You would have been banned back then I imagine, for daring to presume peak oil hadn't already happened yesterday or was today! Let's hear it for reality tempering the reaction of the acolytes!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggest

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:21:41


Turns out, America’s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true. There’s no denying that fracking has turned the U.S. into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence. But now, researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Energy Department’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come. The culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots


US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 Jun 2018, 09:31:00

vtsnowedin wrote:I see that as just the suppliers anticipating both a good summer driving season and a heavy construction season, both of which I can see out working on the highways. I don't know as that build in inventory will be enough as the summer progresses.


All it takes is world prices to creep up a little and the exporters will sell that 'excess' overseas. In the current global market world prices shift on a whim, but so long as demand keeps growing supply has to grow as fast or faster to prevent massive increases in price. Sure Texas is still growing as are Iraq and a few other places, but Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia the UK, and an ever growing list of others are in decline. Maybe they can all deploy fracking of tight source rock as the USA/Argentina are, but that remains to be proven.

If you look at the graph of Saudi Arabia their exports have been kept on a plateau for nearly 30 years, which is IMO an extremely impressive achievement. But if you look at the internal consumption part of the graph it is crystal clear that plateau exports and increase internal demand equals increased production. How long can KSA realistically grow its production to meet both plateau exports and ever growing internal demand? When they hit the production wall be it today or in two decades the result will be a decrease in exports.
Image

Throughout the Middle east exporting countries demand went from near nothing in the 1960's to over 10 MM/bbl/d in our current world.
Image

The middle east is not unique, demand everywhere in the developing world has grown and continues to grow. Sooner or later we lose the capacity to keep up with demand, and I am like everyone here confident it will be sooner.
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